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Official Speculation Thread ‘19-'20 II: BIG as F

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Re: Official Speculation Thread ‘19-'20 II: BIG as F 

Post#21 » by Tarheel » Wed Jun 26, 2019 1:52 pm

yoyojw17 wrote:
Tarheel wrote:
Read on Twitter

AWESOME!!!!!

I like em both a lot. Hope we enter the season with them both on our roster. Excited to see Amile in the preseason... hope he is going to be a starter for them and play a primary roll.


Same. Personally I don't mind heading into the season with our C rotation as Birch/Bamba/Jefferson (Jefferson can split time with Lakeland if needed) on the proviso that the money we would have spent on Vuc is spent on a perimeter shot creator.
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Re: Official Speculation Thread ‘19-'20 II: BIG as F 

Post#22 » by Knightro » Wed Jun 26, 2019 1:53 pm

I've been pretty silent from the end of the season to now, but as we approach the eve of free agency I'm definitely starting to feel like the Magic are more likely to let Vucevic AND Ross walk than ever before.
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Re: Official Speculation Thread ‘19-'20 II: BIG as F 

Post#23 » by OrlChamps2030 » Wed Jun 26, 2019 1:56 pm

Anyone else feel like Brogdon on a 20+mill deal would be a disappointment on this team?

Unless people are talking about him as a fallback option if we can’t get DLo.. but otherwise I feel like DLo is a much better fit for this team

Brogdon has role player written all over him, he doesn’t break defenses down off the dribble or create his own shot. He looks a lot better next to the MVP than he does next to DJ Augustine imo
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Re: Official Speculation Thread ‘19-'20 II: BIG as F 

Post#24 » by MartinsIzAfraud » Wed Jun 26, 2019 2:12 pm

OrlChamps2030 wrote:Anyone else feel like Brogdon on a 20+mill deal would be a disappointment on this team?

Unless people are talking about him as a fallback option if we can’t get DLo.. but otherwise I feel like DLo is a much better fit for this team

Brogdon has role player written all over him, he doesn’t break defenses down off the dribble or create his own shot. He looks a lot better next to the MVP than he does next to DJ Augustine imo


Brogdon on 20M will be the new Fournier overpaying a role player move
A scoring guard.. never heard of one. :roll:
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Re: Official Speculation Thread ‘19-'20 II: BIG as F 

Post#25 » by bigdogdylan5 » Wed Jun 26, 2019 2:15 pm

OrlChamps2030 wrote:Anyone else feel like Brogdon on a 20+mill deal would be a disappointment on this team?

Unless people are talking about him as a fallback option if we can’t get DLo.. but otherwise I feel like DLo is a much better fit for this team

Brogdon has role player written all over him, he doesn’t break defenses down off the dribble or create his own shot. He looks a lot better next to the MVP than he does next to DJ Augustine imo

I don’t see that at all. He is a pretty good at attacking the basket and finishing and also has a good floater. He is more of a feet set shooter than a guy to shoot a lot off the dribble. DLo efficiency scares the **** out of me. Do we really believe he is any good or just got a lot of opportunities.
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Re: Official Speculation Thread ‘19-'20 II: BIG as F 

Post#26 » by OrlandoMagic » Wed Jun 26, 2019 2:16 pm

Until the NBA goes to a hard cap we will always have these crazy ass contracts. I would never dish out huge money unless that player Is a game changer. Only a hand full of players even deserve a max contract. Of course the NBA will never go to a hard cap so we will all adapt to seeing mediocre players getting these Fournier deals.
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Re: Official Speculation Thread ‘19-'20 II: BIG as F 

Post#27 » by PrimeThyme » Wed Jun 26, 2019 2:18 pm

Knightro wrote:I've been pretty silent from the end of the season to now, but as we approach the eve of free agency I'm definitely starting to feel like the Magic are more likely to let Vucevic AND Ross walk than ever before.

I think we let both walk and go into next season with a DJ/Evan/Isaac/AG/Birch starting lineup and add a backup forward/guard on a 1-2 year deal. We will see what happens but that is my feeling going into it.

We would take a step back as Bamba and possibly Fultz/Chuma are worked into the lineup at some point next season and go into next offseason with Mosgov/DJ coming off the books/Evan expiring the following year and potentially alot of cap space to work with.
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Re: Official Speculation Thread ‘19-'20 II: BIG as F 

Post#28 » by OrlandoMagic » Wed Jun 26, 2019 2:19 pm

BadMofoPimp wrote:
OrlandoMagic wrote:I personally thing Ross should be more of a priority than Vuc. Like someone said in another thread a lot of teams don’t need centers anymore with high usage. I honestly can’t see teams forking over a ton of money for Vuc. I would personally let Vuc test the league out see what other teams are thinking. Once we hear he has a contract in hand if it’s reasonable give him the same or slightly more. Put it on him wether he wants to stay or not.


Vooch is an all-star that was consistent all season long who was more integral to the team winning more games than Ross who is great when he is hot, but not when he is not hot. I love me some Ross, but much of the time he is a black hole on offense who rarely passes and chucks like there is no tomorrow. Fans here utilize the term Black Hole when describing other players, but Ross becomes that at times.



I honestly get what you are saying and even agree a little bit. But how many teams actually run their offense through the center position? Ross to me is an important player just because I do believe he is our bench scoring. Without him who scores in the second unit?
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Re: Official Speculation Thread ‘19-'20 II: BIG as F 

Post#29 » by tiderulz » Wed Jun 26, 2019 2:20 pm

BadMofoPimp wrote:
pepe1991 wrote:Given how he is trigger -happy and doesn't really pass that well and only looks for his own shots, i highly doubt any serious ,upper echelon team would target him or if they do offer him more than $11-$12M he makes now.
He is career 7,1 ppg playoff performer on 36% FG and negative offensive impact.

For Magic he is pretty much their offensive punch, but no other team is willing to gamble on production of 1 player to carry on whole bench. Even Lou Williams comes off bench with Montrezl Harrell to share offensive duties. Magic? Who was second best scorer off bench for Magic? Mo Bamba on 6,2 ppg?


I can see Ross commanding a Fournier level contract around $18 mil per. Any more than that, I would look elsewhere.

i see it more $12mil a year.
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Re: Official Speculation Thread ‘19-'20 II: BIG as F 

Post#30 » by NotACat » Wed Jun 26, 2019 2:54 pm

BadMofoPimp wrote:
pepe1991 wrote:Given how he is trigger -happy and doesn't really pass that well and only looks for his own shots, i highly doubt any serious ,upper echelon team would target him or if they do offer him more than $11-$12M he makes now.
He is career 7,1 ppg playoff performer on 36% FG and negative offensive impact.

For Magic he is pretty much their offensive punch, but no other team is willing to gamble on production of 1 player to carry on whole bench. Even Lou Williams comes off bench with Montrezl Harrell to share offensive duties. Magic? Who was second best scorer off bench for Magic? Mo Bamba on 6,2 ppg?


I can see Ross commanding a Fournier level contract around $18 mil per. Any more than that, I would look elsewhere.

Evan was much younger when he got that contract, and is still younger than TRoss now. I don't think his contract will pass $12M if we give him a decent amount of years
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Re: Official Speculation Thread ‘19-'20 II: BIG as F 

Post#31 » by Blue_and_Whte » Wed Jun 26, 2019 3:35 pm

https://www.nba.com/amp/magic/orlando-magic-extend-qualifying-offers-khem-birch-amile-jefferson-20190625
Iwundu ranked first on the Magic and fifth overall in the NBA in field goal percentage allowed at 40.5 percenThat put him in the same company as Antetokounmpo (40.1 percent allowed), Denver’s Torrey Craig (39.8 percent allowed), Toronto’s Most Improved Player award winner Pascal Siakam (39.7 percent allowed) and Miami’s Derrick Jones Jr. (39.1 percent allowed).
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Re: Official Speculation Thread ‘19-'20 II: BIG as F 

Post#32 » by fendilim » Wed Jun 26, 2019 3:43 pm

Blue_and_Whte wrote:https://www.nba.com/amp/magic/orlando-magic-extend-qualifying-offers-khem-birch-amile-jefferson-20190625
Iwundu ranked first on the Magic and fifth overall in the NBA in field goal percentage allowed at 40.5 percenThat put him in the same company as Antetokounmpo (40.1 percent allowed), Denver’s Torrey Craig (39.8 percent allowed), Toronto’s Most Improved Player award winner Pascal Siakam (39.7 percent allowed) and Miami’s Derrick Jones Jr. (39.1 percent allowed).

If only he can outscore his opponent..
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Re: Official Speculation Thread ‘19-'20 II: BIG as F 

Post#33 » by The Effect » Wed Jun 26, 2019 3:54 pm

MartinsIzAfraud wrote:
OrlChamps2030 wrote:Anyone else feel like Brogdon on a 20+mill deal would be a disappointment on this team?

Unless people are talking about him as a fallback option if we can’t get DLo.. but otherwise I feel like DLo is a much better fit for this team

Brogdon has role player written all over him, he doesn’t break defenses down off the dribble or create his own shot. He looks a lot better next to the MVP than he does next to DJ Augustine imo


Brogdon on 20M will be the new Fournier overpaying a role player move

Why is it always looked at as a worst case scenario?

Why couldnt signing him be the new Khris Middleton, sign a promising young role player to a nice deal and then watching them become elite?
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Re: Official Speculation Thread ‘19-'20 II: BIG as F 

Post#34 » by Popsicle1228 » Wed Jun 26, 2019 4:52 pm

OrlandoMagic wrote:
BadMofoPimp wrote:
OrlandoMagic wrote:I personally thing Ross should be more of a priority than Vuc. Like someone said in another thread a lot of teams don’t need centers anymore with high usage. I honestly can’t see teams forking over a ton of money for Vuc. I would personally let Vuc test the league out see what other teams are thinking. Once we hear he has a contract in hand if it’s reasonable give him the same or slightly more. Put it on him wether he wants to stay or not.


Vooch is an all-star that was consistent all season long who was more integral to the team winning more games than Ross who is great when he is hot, but not when he is not hot. I love me some Ross, but much of the time he is a black hole on offense who rarely passes and chucks like there is no tomorrow. Fans here utilize the term Black Hole when describing other players, but Ross becomes that at times.



I honestly get what you are saying and even agree a little bit. But how many teams actually run their offense through the center position? Ross to me is an important player just because I do believe he is our bench scoring. Without him who scores in the second unit?


Without Vuc who scores on the 1st unit?
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Re: Official Speculation Thread ‘19-'20 II: BIG as F 

Post#35 » by OrlandoMagic » Wed Jun 26, 2019 5:09 pm

Popsicle1228 wrote:
OrlandoMagic wrote:
BadMofoPimp wrote:
Vooch is an all-star that was consistent all season long who was more integral to the team winning more games than Ross who is great when he is hot, but not when he is not hot. I love me some Ross, but much of the time he is a black hole on offense who rarely passes and chucks like there is no tomorrow. Fans here utilize the term Black Hole when describing other players, but Ross becomes that at times.



I honestly get what you are saying and even agree a little bit. But how many teams actually run their offense through the center position? Ross to me is an important player just because I do believe he is our bench scoring. Without him who scores in the second unit?


Without Vuc who scores on the 1st unit?


Within the first unit both Gordon and Fournier have shown they can score when given the opportunity. And you can almost make a case for Issac as he improves. It in our second unit you really can’t say this person or that person can. Or maybe you can? I just personally don’t see or would trust anyone in the second unit to score much. Now if we solely become a lock down defense with our second unit then scoring doesn’t matter as much.
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Re: Official Speculation Thread ‘19-'20 II: BIG as F 

Post#36 » by jayrehme » Wed Jun 26, 2019 5:12 pm

OrlandoMagic wrote:
Popsicle1228 wrote:
OrlandoMagic wrote:

I honestly get what you are saying and even agree a little bit. But how many teams actually run their offense through the center position? Ross to me is an important player just because I do believe he is our bench scoring. Without him who scores in the second unit?


Without Vuc who scores on the 1st unit?


Within the first unit both Gordon and Fournier have shown they can score when given the opportunity. And you can almost make a case for Issac as he improves. It in our second unit you really can’t say this person or that person can. Or maybe you can? I just personally don’t see or would trust anyone in the second unit to score much. Now if we solely become a lock down defense with our second unit then scoring doesn’t matter as much.


I'd be excited to not have to see Augustin dribble around for 20 seconds trying to get Vuc the ball.
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Re: Official Speculation Thread ‘19-'20 II: BIG as F 

Post#37 » by BadMofoPimp » Wed Jun 26, 2019 5:22 pm

jayrehme wrote:
OrlandoMagic wrote:
Popsicle1228 wrote:
Without Vuc who scores on the 1st unit?


Within the first unit both Gordon and Fournier have shown they can score when given the opportunity. And you can almost make a case for Issac as he improves. It in our second unit you really can’t say this person or that person can. Or maybe you can? I just personally don’t see or would trust anyone in the second unit to score much. Now if we solely become a lock down defense with our second unit then scoring doesn’t matter as much.


I'd be excited to not have to see Augustin dribble around for 20 seconds trying to get Vuc the ball.


I'd not be excited to watch DJ dribble around for 28 seconds since nobody else can score like Vuc just to see someone chuck another last second double teamed shot.
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Re: Official Speculation Thread ‘19-'20 II: BIG as F 

Post#38 » by ezzzp » Wed Jun 26, 2019 5:26 pm

The Effect wrote:
MartinsIzAfraud wrote:
OrlChamps2030 wrote:Anyone else feel like Brogdon on a 20+mill deal would be a disappointment on this team?

Unless people are talking about him as a fallback option if we can’t get DLo.. but otherwise I feel like DLo is a much better fit for this team

Brogdon has role player written all over him, he doesn’t break defenses down off the dribble or create his own shot. He looks a lot better next to the MVP than he does next to DJ Augustine imo


Brogdon on 20M will be the new Fournier overpaying a role player move

Why is it always looked at as a worst case scenario?

Why couldnt signing him be the new Khris Middleton, sign a promising young role player to a nice deal and then watching them become elite?


Middelton was 21 when Hammond traded for him in Milwaukee...even at that age he already had a versatile offensive game that wasn't reliant on other players.

Brogdan is 26 (43 days younger than Fournier). He brings better defense than Fournier, but everything else is essentially same. The Magic need more than that for what could be a considerably bigger contract than Fournier's...AND they both play the same position. If Magic have a way of trading Fournier to make room for Brogdon, sure...but getting more expensive while duplicating and not really improving the position all that much doesn't make a lot of sense.

Spoiler:
I like Brogdon a lot, but you have to contextualize every stat he has with Giannis Antetokounmpo.

In Milwaukee, teams send double and triple teams to slow the Greek. Then they worry about Bledsoe's penetration and stay tight on Middleton's all over scoring threat. In the Bucks context, Brogdon is at best the 4th guy on opposing defenses' minds.

In an Orlando context, Brogdon won't have a fraction of the type of space and freedom of movement he has been accustomed to playing with. To clear cap space for Brogdon, the Magic have to renounce Vucevic and Ross. That's Orlando's top two gravity players.

In addition, while Brogdon can start at SG, he isn't a true PG. So, outside of the Fultz mystery, the Magic would still not have a long term answer at PG.

Brogdon plays mostly off ball and usually plays secondary creator...the same role as Fournier. In fact, Fournier has higher AST% than Brogdon (17.6 vs 16.9)...and that's with Brogdon feeding two top tier scorers.

Brogdon and Fournier are the same age, right now neither has that ability to shoot off-the-bounce effectively. That's why neither will likely be primary on-ball guys. Fournier is actually better and he's doing it in a much more difficult Orlando context.

• Last season on pull-up FGA's
Brogdon...overall 13-119 .361 eFG% and 16-60 .267 3P%
Fournier...overall 129-351 .425 eFG% and 40-129 .288 3P%

Where Brogdon excels, is in Catch and Shoot situations

• Last season in Catch and Shoot FGA's
Brogdon...overall 18-184 .712 eFG% and 86-181 .475 3P%
Fournier...overall 122-326 .540 eFG% and 40-129 .288 3P%

BUT this is obviously created by attention created by the Greek etc:

Only TWO of Malcolm Brogdon's 244 three point attempts were defended last season (defined by NBA as having a defender within 4ft). 197 of those looks were taken with the nearest defender at least 6ft away; he shot those a .467 3P%. Interestingly, the 45 were the nearest defender was 4-6ft away, his 3P% free fell to .311

For added context...Fournier on his wide open 3's shot .413 (92-223)...and that's on a career worst shooting season.

So. When gauging what $$$ to offer Brogdon, its important to realize that his numbers were greatly impacted by just getting a lot of easy looks.

You can see the difference in a true primary/secondary option and guys who are more suited for 3d and lower tier by looking at off-the-bounce offense and creation for others:

• Pull Up Shooting

Brogdon...overall 13-119 .361 eFG% and 16-60 .267 3P%
Russell....overall 324-794 .487 eFG% and 126-361 .349%
Fournier...overall 129-351 .425 eFG% and 40-129 .288 3P%

• Creation

Brogdon...16.9 AST%
Russell...41.3 AST%
Fournier...17.6 AST%
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Re: Official Speculation Thread ‘19-'20 II: BIG as F 

Post#39 » by Furinkazan » Wed Jun 26, 2019 5:31 pm

The Effect wrote:
MartinsIzAfraud wrote:
OrlChamps2030 wrote:Anyone else feel like Brogdon on a 20+mill deal would be a disappointment on this team?

Unless people are talking about him as a fallback option if we can’t get DLo.. but otherwise I feel like DLo is a much better fit for this team

Brogdon has role player written all over him, he doesn’t break defenses down off the dribble or create his own shot. He looks a lot better next to the MVP than he does next to DJ Augustine imo


Brogdon on 20M will be the new Fournier overpaying a role player move

Why is it always looked at as a worst case scenario?

Why couldnt signing him be the new Khris Middleton, sign a promising young role player to a nice deal and then watching them become elite?

because we see world as it is?
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Re: Official Speculation Thread ‘19-'20 II: BIG as F 

Post#40 » by BadMofoPimp » Wed Jun 26, 2019 5:43 pm

ezzzp wrote:
The Effect wrote:
MartinsIzAfraud wrote:
Brogdon on 20M will be the new Fournier overpaying a role player move

Why is it always looked at as a worst case scenario?

Why couldnt signing him be the new Khris Middleton, sign a promising young role player to a nice deal and then watching them become elite?


Middelton was 21 when Hammond traded for him in Milwaukee...even at that age he already had a versatile offensive game that wasn't reliant on other players.

Brogdan is 26 (43 days younger than Fournier). He brings better defense than Fournier, but everything else is essentially same. The Magic need more than that for what could be a considerably bigger contract than Fournier's...AND they both play the same position. If Magic have a way of trading Fournier to make room for Brogdon, sure...but getting more expensive while duplicating and not really improving the position all that much doesn't make a lot of sense.

Spoiler:
I like Brogdon a lot, but you have to contextualize every stat he has with Giannis Antetokounmpo.

In Milwaukee, teams send double and triple teams to slow the Greek. Then they worry about Bledsoe's penetration and stay tight on Middleton's all over scoring threat. In the Bucks context, Brogdon is at best the 4th guy on opposing defenses' minds.

In an Orlando context, Brogdon won't have a fraction of the type of space and freedom of movement he has been accustomed to playing with. To clear cap space for Brogdon, the Magic have to renounce Vucevic and Ross. That's Orlando's top two gravity players.

In addition, while Brogdon can start at SG, he isn't a true PG. So, outside of the Fultz mystery, the Magic would still not have a long term answer at PG.

Brogdon plays mostly off ball and usually plays secondary creator...the same role as Fournier. In fact, Fournier has higher AST% than Brogdon (17.6 vs 16.9)...and that's with Brogdon feeding two top tier scorers.

Brogdon and Fournier are the same age, right now neither has that ability to shoot off-the-bounce effectively. That's why neither will likely be primary on-ball guys. Fournier is actually better and he's doing it in a much more difficult Orlando context.

• Last season on pull-up FGA's
Brogdon...overall 13-119 .361 eFG% and 16-60 .267 3P%
Fournier...overall 129-351 .425 eFG% and 40-129 .288 3P%

Where Brogdon excels, is in Catch and Shoot situations

• Last season in Catch and Shoot FGA's
Brogdon...overall 18-184 .712 eFG% and 86-181 .475 3P%
Fournier...overall 122-326 .540 eFG% and 40-129 .288 3P%

BUT this is obviously created by attention created by the Greek etc:

Only TWO of Malcolm Brogdon's 244 three point attempts were defended last season (defined by NBA as having a defender within 4ft). 197 of those looks were taken with the nearest defender at least 6ft away; he shot those a .467 3P%. Interestingly, the 45 were the nearest defender was 4-6ft away, his 3P% free fell to .311

For added context...Fournier on his wide open 3's shot .413 (92-223)...and that's on a career worst shooting season.

So. When gauging what $$$ to offer Brogdon, its important to realize that his numbers were greatly impacted by just getting a lot of easy looks.

You can see the difference in a true primary/secondary option and guys who are more suited for 3d and lower tier by looking at off-the-bounce offense and creation for others:

• Pull Up Shooting

Brogdon...overall 13-119 .361 eFG% and 16-60 .267 3P%
Russell....overall 324-794 .487 eFG% and 126-361 .349%
Fournier...overall 129-351 .425 eFG% and 40-129 .288 3P%

• Creation

Brogdon...16.9 AST%
Russell...41.3 AST%
Fournier...17.6 AST%


So, if Magic paid $22mil plus for a marginally better Fournier, would fans here be happy now?
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