What exactly does a max contract mean?

[cjbulls]

Look at 22-23, with Zach RE-upped for the max you’d have him, brogdon, Lauri, WCJ and FA all on max. It would literally be the highest salary team in league history. Of course this scenario is somewhat unrealistic, but it shows how Brogdon limits you.

As I said very explicitly, 2021 FA/Brogdon is an "or" not an "and" relationship. You can't get both. If you have Brogdon you do not have cap room for that guy in 2021.

If you work with the idea is the most you can pay is 4 (especially with 3 of the 4 being on early max not late maxes) then Brogdon + your core never violates that while 2021 FA + your core does. If your core is all successful, that 2021 FA means you are paying 5 or you are letting someone go.

This might of course be just fine if that 2021 FA is Giannis, and as I noted the odds of all of your young guys developing that well are very low.

Oh so you’re foregoing any free agents in the next 7 years and dropping Otto. All to get Brogdon? Do I have that right?

[panthermark]

I like Brogdon at no more than 4/90....if he gets more than that...good for him. We tried...I can't complain (unless he goes to another team for 4/91). I could live with him at a flat $22.5 each year. (We would actually be better off with him front-loaded). I would like to re-sign Otto to a similar deal (maybe a little less).

2021 season Key players

Brodgon/White $22.5/$5.5
Zach $19.5
Otto $23.0
Lauri $29.5 (assuming he is a max player)
WCJr $6.9
Total is $106.9M (Not including Hutch, holds, picks, ect...)

The key is the 2022....how much does keeping WCJr and Zach add to the salary? Luxury tax is $143M in 2020.

If Lauri is truly a max player (made an All-Star game)....and Zach is worth a big raise (also made and All-star game or two), and WCJr is worth getting a max raise (All NBA defense, fringe/future All-star)....then do you have a title team? Does Otto take a little less to stay with the team or do you drop him and grab a good player that is willing to take the MLE in order to join a contender?

[MrSparkle]

Max for Brogdon is crazy. If he's that good, then that means he's all-star caliber, and Milwaukee will pay him and the tax penalty, cause they were 2 wins away from the finals, and you don't let a prime star walk.

Dunno what kind of koo-koo juice you guys are drinking. Bulls just drafted a top-3 PG prospect and have a star SG - they have a starting backcourt. Brogdon played most his minutes at SG last year. Nice that he's a combo guard, but that is a position you fill with a late pick (like Brogdon was) or with chunks of that $22m in free agency.

If they drafted a wing I'd entertain the idea, but what on earth? You want to pay a potential backup max money? Did I see someone say 'let Otto walk?'

If Coby does not turn out to be a good player, then I don't have time for a Brogdon/Zach back-court. That'd be another blunder for GarPax. They need Coby to be good, because they didn't have to draft him. There were trade options and different intriguing picks on the board. I want to see Coby starting this October.

If they sign a PG, it should be a bargain bin old guy. Since Beverley is looking for starter money, I'm about done with that idea. I wouldn't approach him early, but if Rose can't get the number he wants, I'd go to him in the middle of July and offer 18/2, or even 12m/1y.

I don't want to see Coby starting this October (unless he is simply amazing this pre-season...and there is always a rookie wall).
He played one year of PG in college....and this particular team needs wins.
I do want to see him get good minutes backing up both guard spots however.

If we don't land Brogdon, I still like Collison. I don't like the DV issue....but PG's that fit our "style" are in high demand and he is probably the best pure fit of all the people we are looking at..Brogdon and PBev included.

Of all the really good PGs in the past 10 years, which one's were not starter-quality in their rookie year?

Rose, Lillard, Kyrie, Paul, Curry, Westbrook, Conley, Kemba, Jrue, Paul, Wall, Simmons

Even Trae Young and D. Fox... J. Murray...

Sure, there were some exceptions, but usually a "star-caliber" PG can start from day 1. Not saying they make the all-star game anytime soon, but signing a max player for 4y is a serious minute burden - you don't pay a player $28m to share minutes with a #7 prospect. Unless he's a bust, in which case the damage is done in having wasted that high asset.

Sure, you have your late surprises like Lowry, D. Russell (assuming he's even gonna continue playing well)... and honestly, I can't think of any others unless I stretch back to C. Billups. Hell, even Kirk Hinrich looked like a legitimate starter in his first NBA game. And actually Russell started more than half the season and played OK (just far below what you hope from a #2).

So my point... is if Coby White isn't ready to start this fall, then we PROBABLY have a problem on our hands, much like Kris Dunn. Signing a max guard before seeing him play is ludicrous unless he completely ****s the bed in SL and Pax realizes he made a grave draft mistake.

If Brogdon was flashing a Curry trajectory, then yes... I'd drop everything and sign the kid regardless who signs, but I don't think we'd be speculating this at all, because MIL would happily resign him and win chips with him as Giannis' Robin. He has similar 1-3y stats but he is not the shooter that Curry was.

[dougthonus]

Oh so you’re foregoing any free agents in the next 7 years and dropping Otto. All to get Brogdon? Do I have that right?

I'm not arguing to get Brogdon or not in this scenario. I'm not trying to argue with you in a "we should do this vs we should do that way". I'm just presenting what I think the different outcomes are. You're adding more variables to the equation (which is fine of course but then changes the nature of it).

The Bulls are in an inherently difficult position if all their players become good but not great as those are the guys whom end up hurting you the most on salary. You can probably keep four players. If you get Brogdon now then he plays a PG roll and rolls off at the time you need to extend White.

If Porter becomes amazing then he either has to replace someone else on your "big salary" list or you are going to be paying big money. If you want to keep Porter you also won't have room in 2021 as that room relies on Porter being gone.

It's hard for me to envision Porter staying after two years, but you never know. As a UFA, he will likely go wherever money is best and will have a max slot in the 30% range so some team can really overpay him if he proves to be very good.

[panthermark]

Max for Brogdon is crazy. If he's that good, then that means he's all-star caliber, and Milwaukee will pay him and the tax penalty, cause they were 2 wins away from the finals, and you don't let a prime star walk.

Dunno what kind of koo-koo juice you guys are drinking. Bulls just drafted a top-3 PG prospect and have a star SG - they have a starting backcourt. Brogdon played most his minutes at SG last year. Nice that he's a combo guard, but that is a position you fill with a late pick (like Brogdon was) or with chunks of that $22m in free agency.

If they drafted a wing I'd entertain the idea, but what on earth? You want to pay a potential backup max money? Did I see someone say 'let Otto walk?'

If Coby does not turn out to be a good player, then I don't have time for a Brogdon/Zach back-court. That'd be another blunder for GarPax. They need Coby to be good, because they didn't have to draft him. There were trade options and different intriguing picks on the board. I want to see Coby starting this October.

If they sign a PG, it should be a bargain bin old guy. Since Beverley is looking for starter money, I'm about done with that idea. I wouldn't approach him early, but if Rose can't get the number he wants, I'd go to him in the middle of July and offer 18/2, or even 12m/1y.

I don't want to see Coby starting this October (unless he is simply amazing this pre-season...and there is always a rookie wall).
He played one year of PG in college....and this particular team needs wins.
I do want to see him get good minutes backing up both guard spots however.

If we don't land Brogdon, I still like Collison. I don't like the DV issue....but PG's that fit our "style" are in high demand and he is probably the best pure fit of all the people we are looking at..Brogdon and PBev included.

Of all the really good PGs in the past 10 years, which one's were not starter-quality in their rookie year?

Rose, Lillard, Kyrie, Paul, Curry, Westbrook, Conley, Kemba, Jrue, Paul, Wall, Simmons

Even Trae Young and D. Fox... J. Murray...

Sure, there were some exceptions, but usually a "star-caliber" PG can start from day 1. Signing a max player for 4y is a serious minute burden - you don't pay a player $28m to share minutes with a #7 prospect. Unless he's a bust, in which case the damage is done in having wasted that high asset.

Sure, you have your late surprises like Lowry, D. Russell (assuming he's even gonna continue playing well)... and honestly, I can't think of any others unless I stretch back to C. Billups. Hell, even Kirk Hinrich looked like a legitimate starter in his first NBA game.

So my point... is if Coby White isn't ready to start this fall, then we PROBABLY have a problem on our hands, much like Kris Dunn. Signing a max guard before seeing him play is ludicrous unless he completely ****s the bed in SL and Pax realizes he made a grave draft mistake.

What was the record of those teams their rookie year?
Also, we don't "have" to sign a max salary guard...but we do need a vet guard of some sort on this team.

[Red Larrivee]

I like Brogdon at no more than 4/90....if he gets more than that...good for him. We tried...I can't complain (unless he goes to another team for 4/91). I could live with him at a flat $22.5 each year. (We would actually be better off with him front-loaded). I would like to re-sign Otto to a similar deal (maybe a little less).

2021 season Key players

Brodgon/White $22.5/$5.5
Zach $19.5
Otto $23.0
Lauri $29.5 (assuming he is a max player)
WCJr $6.9
Total is $106.9M (Not including Hutch, holds, picks, ect...)

The key is the 2022....how much does keeping WCJr and Zach add to the salary? Luxury tax is $143M in 2020.

If Lauri is truly a max player (made an All-Star game)....and Zach is worth a big raise (also made and All-star game or two), and WCJr is worth getting a max raise (All NBA defense, fringe/future All-star)....then do you have a title team? Does Otto take a little less to stay with the team or do you drop him and grab a good player that is willing to take the MLE in order to join a contender?

If you believe in keeping Brogdon, LaVine, Porter, Markkanen and Carter together long-term, you're going to pay the tax. Also, if your desire is to see a championship contender, one of those players needs to develop into a superstar.

The odds of this seem very low.

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[MrSparkle]

I don't want to see Coby starting this October (unless he is simply amazing this pre-season...and there is always a rookie wall).
He played one year of PG in college....and this particular team needs wins.
I do want to see him get good minutes backing up both guard spots however.

If we don't land Brogdon, I still like Collison. I don't like the DV issue....but PG's that fit our "style" are in high demand and he is probably the best pure fit of all the people we are looking at..Brogdon and PBev included.

Of all the really good PGs in the past 10 years, which one's were not starter-quality in their rookie year?

Rose, Lillard, Kyrie, Paul, Curry, Westbrook, Conley, Kemba, Jrue, Paul, Wall, Simmons

Even Trae Young and D. Fox... J. Murray...

Sure, there were some exceptions, but usually a "star-caliber" PG can start from day 1. Signing a max player for 4y is a serious minute burden - you don't pay a player $28m to share minutes with a #7 prospect. Unless he's a bust, in which case the damage is done in having wasted that high asset.

Sure, you have your late surprises like Lowry, D. Russell (assuming he's even gonna continue playing well)... and honestly, I can't think of any others unless I stretch back to C. Billups. Hell, even Kirk Hinrich looked like a legitimate starter in his first NBA game.

So my point... is if Coby White isn't ready to start this fall, then we PROBABLY have a problem on our hands, much like Kris Dunn. Signing a max guard before seeing him play is ludicrous unless he completely ****s the bed in SL and Pax realizes he made a grave draft mistake.

What was the record of those teams their rookie year?
Also, we don't "have" to sign a max salary guard...but we do need a vet guard of some sort on this team.

Right. Well I never said that rookie PGs win games. But you certainly want them to develop in high minutes and play through their mistakes. Should Atlanta have traded for Mike Conley last year to mentor Trae off the bench? Look what Kyrie's off/on impact was like for Rozier. PGs need high minutes and usage for development, it's a plain fact.

If we sign a vet guard, I'm fine with an actual vet guard who's coming at bargain bin price. Maybe it's Rose, maybe it's Rubio, maybe even Rondo. I just wouldn't "lock up" a 2+ year player who's gonna want to start.

[panthermark]

I like Brogdon at no more than 4/90....if he gets more than that...good for him. We tried...I can't complain (unless he goes to another team for 4/91). I could live with him at a flat $22.5 each year. (We would actually be better off with him front-loaded). I would like to re-sign Otto to a similar deal (maybe a little less).

2021 season Key players

Brodgon/White $22.5/$5.5
Zach $19.5
Otto $23.0
Lauri $29.5 (assuming he is a max player)
WCJr $6.9
Total is $106.9M (Not including Hutch, holds, picks, ect...)

The key is the 2022....how much does keeping WCJr and Zach add to the salary? Luxury tax is $143M in 2020.

If Lauri is truly a max player (made an All-Star game)....and Zach is worth a big raise (also made and All-star game or two), and WCJr is worth getting a max raise (All NBA defense, fringe/future All-star)....then do you have a title team? Does Otto take a little less to stay with the team or do you drop him and grab a good player that is willing to take the MLE in order to join a contender?

If you believe in keeping Brogdon, LaVine, Porter, Markkanen and Carter together long-term, you're going to pay the tax. Also, if your desire is to see a championship contender, one of those players needs to develop into a superstar.

The odds of this seem very low.

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True...
Not sure which odds are higher.
One of them turns into a superstar...
Or....we land a superstar via trade or FA....

The flip side is that if none of them turn into superstars.....trading for Otto was a waste (vs letting Portis and Parker walk, and using cap space to take bad contracts and assets)....and we should probably prepare for another rebuild, or at least a retool.

[panthermark]

Of all the really good PGs in the past 10 years, which one's were not starter-quality in their rookie year?

Rose, Lillard, Kyrie, Paul, Curry, Westbrook, Conley, Kemba, Jrue, Paul, Wall, Simmons

Even Trae Young and D. Fox... J. Murray...

Sure, there were some exceptions, but usually a "star-caliber" PG can start from day 1. Signing a max player for 4y is a serious minute burden - you don't pay a player $28m to share minutes with a #7 prospect. Unless he's a bust, in which case the damage is done in having wasted that high asset.

Sure, you have your late surprises like Lowry, D. Russell (assuming he's even gonna continue playing well)... and honestly, I can't think of any others unless I stretch back to C. Billups. Hell, even Kirk Hinrich looked like a legitimate starter in his first NBA game.

So my point... is if Coby White isn't ready to start this fall, then we PROBABLY have a problem on our hands, much like Kris Dunn. Signing a max guard before seeing him play is ludicrous unless he completely ****s the bed in SL and Pax realizes he made a grave draft mistake.

What was the record of those teams their rookie year?
Also, we don't "have" to sign a max salary guard...but we do need a vet guard of some sort on this team.

Right. Well I never said that rookie PGs win games. But you certainly want them to develop in high minutes and play through their mistakes. Should Atlanta have traded for Mike Conley last year to mentor Trae off the bench? Look what Kyrie's off/on impact was like for Rozier. PGs need high minutes and usage for development, it's a plain fact.

If we sign a vet guard, I'm fine with an actual vet guard who's coming at bargain bin price. Maybe it's Rose, maybe it's Rubio, maybe even Rondo. I just wouldn't "lock up" a 2+ year player who's gonna want to start.

Yeah, my "vet" guy is Collison.
Seems like a really good fit age wise, price wise, expectation wise.
The problem is this:
https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/17452571/darren-collison-sacramento-kings-pleads-guilty-domestic-battery

[dougthonus]

If you believe in keeping Brogdon, LaVine, Porter, Markkanen and Carter together long-term, you're going to pay the tax. Also, if your desire is to see a championship contender, one of those players needs to develop into a superstar.

The odds of this seem very low.

I agree with these statements, but so we don't get caught up in the idea that these are actually valid arguments against this plan, I would add on the following:

The odds of winning a championship via any method are extremely low.

The odds of winning a championship without paying the tax are even lower if you add that as a constraint.

[panthermark]

What is interesting is that if we are hoping for a superstar OR a title, our best bet is to sign DLo.

Now, I really doubt he becomes a superstar......but....he is technically already an All-Star. Do we go a different route and try to "low level All-Star" our way to a title? This assumes LaVine, Lauri, and eventually WCJr become those players.

That is also a tax team 3 year from now.

[Red Larrivee]

If you believe in keeping Brogdon, LaVine, Porter, Markkanen and Carter together long-term, you're going to pay the tax. Also, if your desire is to see a championship contender, one of those players needs to develop into a superstar.

The odds of this seem very low.

I agree with these statements, but so we don't get caught up in the idea that these are actually valid arguments against this plan, I would add on the following:

The odds of winning a championship via any method are extremely low.

The odds of winning a championship without paying the tax are even lower if you add that as a constraint.

I agree, but who's the superstar here? To me it seems weird that we're talking about paying the tax for a team that doesn't have that one big piece yet. It's unlikely that management does that for just a playoff team.

Not that it matters to me personally, because I'm not title or bust.

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[dougthonus]

I agree, but who's the superstar here? To me it seems weird that we're talking about paying the tax for a team that doesn't have that one big piece yet. It's unlikely that management does that for just a playoff team.

Not that it matters to me personally, because I'm not title or bust.

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Probably no one, because probably this rebuild is going to be a bust.

So you are just hoping it goes better than what is probable. However, while that sounds awful, the alternatives (IMO) have even worse outcomes.

[transplant]

First, I think Doug’s push on the “max” thing was a good one. I wish the media would read his post so that they would quit using phrases like “they cleared enough space for a max contract.” The average fan heard this and thinks that the team can make a max offer to any player when in most cases, that team can only make a low-end max offer.

On Brogdon, he’s clearly a nice player, kind of the guard version of Porter Jr. My instincts are in line with Mr. Sparkle’s...with the addition of White, committing max dollars and years to Brogdon isn’t something I’d do. Then again, I’m not hung up on making the playoffs this season.


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[sh0ck]

I agree, but who's the superstar here? To me it seems weird that we're talking about paying the tax for a team that doesn't have that one big piece yet. It's unlikely that management does that for just a playoff team.

Not that it matters to me personally, because I'm not title or bust.

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Probably no one, because probably this rebuild is going to be a bust.

So you are just hoping it goes better than what is probable. However, while that sounds awful, the alternatives (IMO) have even worse outcomes.

The trick now could be to become a good (not great) solid team until a superstar player becomes available (similar to Boston/Toronto). Good players who produce can be moved even if they're getting slightly overpaid. Tanking to luck into drafting a once in a decade superstar just isn't realistic anymore.

[cjbulls]

If you believe in keeping Brogdon, LaVine, Porter, Markkanen and Carter together long-term, you're going to pay the tax. Also, if your desire is to see a championship contender, one of those players needs to develop into a superstar.

The odds of this seem very low.

I agree with these statements, but so we don't get caught up in the idea that these are actually valid arguments against this plan, I would add on the following:

The odds of winning a championship via any method are extremely low.

The odds of winning a championship without paying the tax are even lower if you add that as a constraint.

I agree, but who's the superstar here? To me it seems weird that we're talking about paying the tax for a team that doesn't have that one big piece yet. It's unlikely that management does that for just a playoff team.

Not that it matters to me personally, because I'm not title or bust.

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I think the goal remains asset accumulation. The Brogdon people seem to think we’re done building and we have enough (I actually agree, just not enough to commit at this point on a bad deal).

It’s hard to tell which, if any of these players are going to break out. But the more good prospects you have, the better the chances a few break out, and the more trades you can make to try and find the right mix of stars and role players. It’s another reason to keep as much flexibility as you can until you really need to commit which to for 2-3 years.

Brogdon could become part of a championship team here, but he’ll never be the reason for it, so I don’t see why they should go all in for him and sacrifice that flexibility. It’s different if you think he’s a trade chip but the higher his salary goes, the more he becomes a negative asset.

[Red Larrivee]

I agree, but who's the superstar here? To me it seems weird that we're talking about paying the tax for a team that doesn't have that one big piece yet. It's unlikely that management does that for just a playoff team.

Not that it matters to me personally, because I'm not title or bust.

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Probably no one, because probably this rebuild is going to be a bust.

So you are just hoping it goes better than what is probable. However, while that sounds awful, the alternatives (IMO) have even worse outcomes.

The trick now could be to become a good (not great) solid team until a superstar player becomes available (similar to Boston/Toronto). Good players who produce can be moved even if they're getting slightly overpaid. Tanking to luck into drafting a once in a decade superstar just isn't realistic anymore.

A team may not want overpaid glue guys in a trade. It could be a situation where draft picks and rookie contracts are more valuable. If we go all in on that five man unit, the chances of signing or trading for a star are worse.

If you max out Brogdon, Porter is gone in a few years.

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[panthermark]

Probably no one, because probably this rebuild is going to be a bust.

So you are just hoping it goes better than what is probable. However, while that sounds awful, the alternatives (IMO) have even worse outcomes.

The trick now could be to become a good (not great) solid team until a superstar player becomes available (similar to Boston/Toronto). Good players who produce can be moved even if they're getting slightly overpaid. Tanking to luck into drafting a once in a decade superstar just isn't realistic anymore.

A team may not want overpaid glue guys in a trade. It could be a situation where draft picks and rookie contracts are more valuable. If we go all in on that five man unit, the chances of signing or trading for a star are worse.

If you max out Brogdon, Porter is gone in a few years.

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Keep in mind the overpaid glue guy helps to match salaries. It probably just depends on how many years are left on a contract....2 or less and it may be OK (expiring being better). Although I think the issue for us is that we would need to probably trade for a star at the trade deadline before the summer of 2021. Depending on who is available, that would be a good time to move Otto if we were going to move someone (assuming he is back next year).

[Red Larrivee]

The trick now could be to become a good (not great) solid team until a superstar player becomes available (similar to Boston/Toronto). Good players who produce can be moved even if they're getting slightly overpaid. Tanking to luck into drafting a once in a decade superstar just isn't realistic anymore.

A team may not want overpaid glue guys in a trade. It could be a situation where draft picks and rookie contracts are more valuable. If we go all in on that five man unit, the chances of signing or trading for a star are worse.

If you max out Brogdon, Porter is gone in a few years.

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Keep in mind the overpaid glue guy helps to match salaries. It probably just depends on how many years are left on a contract....2 or less and it may be OK (expiring being better). Although I think the issue for us is that we would need to probably trade for a star at the trade deadline before the summer of 2021. Depending on who is available, that would be a good time to move Otto if we were going to move someone (assuming he is back next year).

It matches salaries, but teams typically prefer to get rid of salary when trading a star. I can't see a team looking our way to give us a proven star for Brogdon on big money. A team isn't giving him that money because it's a stealth strategy to get a star later; they're doing it to challenge Milwaukee's walk away price.

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[OldSchoolNoBull]

I'm not convinced he moves the needle for us. I'm not convinced we should be capping ourselves out this early in a rebuild. I think it would be a move solely driven by a desire to not be terrible in the short-term with little regard for how it might impact our ability to improve in the long-term. Also, how much of his performance was due to being able to play off a top 5 guy in Giannis? Is he still going to look like that and put up those percentages when none of our guys can collapse a defense the way Giannis does(at least not yet)?

Finally, I don't want Coby to get buried.

I won't be completely upset if we make the offer, there's probably a way to to sign him that works out pretty well for us, but I'm just not wholly convinced of it yet.