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Al Horford

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Re: Al Horford 

Post#121 » by codydaze » Sun Jun 30, 2019 7:58 pm

SupaFly1978 wrote:
codydaze wrote:
SupaFly1978 wrote:
What are you talking about??? Capela can score in the post, is solid defensively, and is a decent passer, all of those things fit our needs at a much lower price than Horford is commanding. I'll take Capela any day of the week over Horford considering the circumstances (age & cost).


Capela gets his offense primarily through lobs and put backs, he doesn't create much for himself out of the post. He's also not a threat whatsoever outside of 5-6 feet from the basket, 75% of his shot attempts are from 0-3 feet from the basket and 35% of his FGA are dunks. He's not a great fit at all with Bagley. If you want to develop the Fox/Bagley pick and roll, Capela is not the ideal big to pair him with since he'd be forced to play the dunker's spot in that scenario which just brings an extra defender into the paint. You want a guy that can operate out of the high post and be a threat from the outside for a kick out 3. That's why Dedmon, Horford or Vuc would have all been better options than Capela or a Steven Adams.


Fair enough, you bring up some valid points. I would be all for bringing in Horford, just not at $30 million + per season on a 4 year contract at age 33. Can Dedmon hit shots outside the paint? I haven't seen him play much.


Dedmon shot 38% from three last season, he can definitely stretch the floor. He’s a solid rim protector too, averaged the same blocks per 36 as Capela as well as same BLK%. Not the sexy move, but he’d be a really solid addition.
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Re: Al Horford 

Post#122 » by City of Trees » Sun Jun 30, 2019 8:00 pm

BoogieTime wrote:I’d give up our 2020, BOgi, and another non Fox/Hield/Bagley piece to win that bid, but I realize I’m at the extreme end of Capela Stan

Fortunately shouldn’t take much at all. Only a few teams should be in play possibly
You stan hard. That's way too much for Capela IMO

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Re: Al Horford 

Post#123 » by codydaze » Sun Jun 30, 2019 8:03 pm

BoogieTime wrote:
codydaze wrote:
SupaFly1978 wrote:
What are you talking about??? Capela can score in the post, is solid defensively, and is a decent passer, all of those things fit our needs at a much lower price than Horford is commanding. I'll take Capela any day of the week over Horford considering the circumstances (age & cost).


Capela gets his offense primarily through lobs and put backs, he doesn't create much for himself out of the post. He's also not a threat whatsoever outside of 5-6 feet from the basket, 75% of his shot attempts are from 0-3 feet from the basket and 35% of his FGA are dunks. He's not a great fit at all with Bagley. If you want to develop the Fox/Bagley pick and roll, Capela is not the ideal big to pair him with since he'd be forced to play the dunker's spot in that scenario which just brings an extra defender into the paint. You want a guy that can operate out of the high post and be a threat from the outside for a kick out 3. That's why Dedmon, Horford or Vuc would have all been better options than Capela or a Steven Adams.


Someone being the better fit doesn’t mean better asset or player, especially going forward given the trajectories. The fit may not be ideal, but I think you accumulate the most talent and work with it

2 years Al may be done, while if Clint continues his improvement he can be a top 5 center IMO


I can’t see Capela ever being top 5 center without developing a jumper which I don’t see as very likely. I’ve got Embiid, Jokic, KAT and Gobert easily ahead of him plus AD/Porzingis who should mostly be considered as 5s. I’d take guys like Vucevic, Nurkic and Myles Turner ahead of him too in my opinion. Not a knock on Capela necessarily, I just don’t really value one dimensional centers very much.
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Re: Al Horford 

Post#124 » by City of Trees » Sun Jun 30, 2019 8:05 pm

codydaze wrote:
SupaFly1978 wrote:
codydaze wrote:
Capela gets his offense primarily through lobs and put backs, he doesn't create much for himself out of the post. He's also not a threat whatsoever outside of 5-6 feet from the basket, 75% of his shot attempts are from 0-3 feet from the basket and 35% of his FGA are dunks. He's not a great fit at all with Bagley. If you want to develop the Fox/Bagley pick and roll, Capela is not the ideal big to pair him with since he'd be forced to play the dunker's spot in that scenario which just brings an extra defender into the paint. You want a guy that can operate out of the high post and be a threat from the outside for a kick out 3. That's why Dedmon, Horford or Vuc would have all been better options than Capela or a Steven Adams.


Fair enough, you bring up some valid points. I would be all for bringing in Horford, just not at $30 million + per season on a 4 year contract at age 33. Can Dedmon hit shots outside the paint? I haven't seen him play much.


Dedmon shot 38% from three last season, he can definitely stretch the floor. He’s a solid rim protector too, averaged the same blocks per 36 as Capela as well as same BLK%. Not the sexy move, but he’d be a really solid addition.
I value Dedmon over Capela but when it comes to rim protection I give the edge to Capela.

Dedmon holds players he defends at the rim to a lower shooting percentage than Capela but Capela challenges more shots per game by roughly 4 or 5 shots per game...he has a larger presence at the rim.

I'd prefer 17 contested shots converted at 47% than 12 contested shots converted at 46%.

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Re: Al Horford 

Post#125 » by Kings2016 » Sun Jun 30, 2019 8:14 pm

Does anyone prefer Capela with Gordon for Bogi and a protected 1 rounder to just getting Dedmon cause when I look at it Gordon give you some of what you lose in Bogi.
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Re: Al Horford 

Post#126 » by codydaze » Sun Jun 30, 2019 8:17 pm

City of Trees wrote:
codydaze wrote:
SupaFly1978 wrote:
Fair enough, you bring up some valid points. I would be all for bringing in Horford, just not at $30 million + per season on a 4 year contract at age 33. Can Dedmon hit shots outside the paint? I haven't seen him play much.


Dedmon shot 38% from three last season, he can definitely stretch the floor. He’s a solid rim protector too, averaged the same blocks per 36 as Capela as well as same BLK%. Not the sexy move, but he’d be a really solid addition.
I value Dedmon over Capela but when it comes to rim protection I give the edge to Capela.

Dedmon holds players he defends at the rim to a lower shooting percentage than Capela but Capela challenges more shots per game by roughly 4 or 5 shots per game...he has a larger presence at the rim.

I'd prefer 17 contested shots converted at 47% than 12 contested shots converted at 46%.

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Yeah, I'd definitely give the edge to Capela on the defensive end, I just think what Dedmon offers on the offensive end closes the gap.
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Re: Al Horford 

Post#127 » by rpa » Sun Jun 30, 2019 8:21 pm

I really worry that the 2 free agent bigs we're being linked to (Horford and Dedmon) are both somehow statistically worse rebounders than WCS.
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Re: Al Horford 

Post#128 » by BoogieTime » Sun Jun 30, 2019 8:21 pm

Maybe a Horford is using other teams as leverage against the Kings. Stein reported Pelicans aren’t after him hard.

I just know he has no business making twice that of Dedmon if it comes down to them
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Re: Al Horford 

Post#129 » by City of Trees » Sun Jun 30, 2019 8:42 pm

rpa wrote:I really worry that the 2 free agent bigs we're being linked to (Horford and Dedmon) are both somehow statistically worse rebounders than WCS.
Advanced stats show Dedmon's per 100 poss rebound average and his TRB% are both higher than Willie's. Also compare the players per 36 career numbers to see Dedmon over 11rpg, WCS 9rpb

I believe you give Dedmon WCS's playing time and you'll see him match or surpass Willie's rebounding numbers.
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Re: Al Horford 

Post#130 » by rpa » Sun Jun 30, 2019 9:08 pm

City of Trees wrote:
rpa wrote:I really worry that the 2 free agent bigs we're being linked to (Horford and Dedmon) are both somehow statistically worse rebounders than WCS.
Advanced stats show Dedmon's per 100 poss rebound average and his TRB% are both higher than Willie's. Also compare the players per 36 career numbers to see Dedmon over 11rpg, WCS 9rpb

I believe you give Dedmon WCS's playing time and you'll see him match or surpass Willie's rebounding numbers.


WCS had a higher TRB% last year than both Horford and Dedmon (granted the different between he and Dedmon is negligible).

My point is that the biggest knock on WCS (last year at least) was his AWFUL rebounding and we're courting 2 people who aren't meaningfully better in that regard. They're FAR better in many other facets of the game, but given that our DRB% was 5th worst in the league and you can argue that WCS's lack of rebounding quite literally cost us multiple games it seems shortsighted to ignore that.

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