what should the blazers do, go all-in or stay on course

[d-train]

Meyers is a good shooter, and his shooting percentages look good on paper (his ts% is 2nd best in the league) but his hesitation to pull the trigger on open shots often leads to someone else having to hoist up a bad shot...and you can see Stotts being demonstritavly frustrated with Meyers on the sideline when he does that. And those types of things don't show up on the stat sheet.

And he still has no post up came to be able to take advantage of smaller players. And inside, if he can't jam it's like floater or nothing.

Shooting percentages can be over-valued because they often don't extrapolate out to more attempts, and I think this is true with Meyers. He attempted 242 shots last year.


But heck, with his shooting percentages, and the fact that he's expiring, hey may not actually have negative trade value anymore. But now our problem is that we're really low on bodies at C.

Actually the on/off stat sheet shows the problem with Leonard. His net off/on is in the bottom 7th percentile. Although with Meyers on court the Blazers shoot well; but on all the other four factors (offensive and defensive) the Blazers do comparatively poorly. On the other hand, his latest games may just negate the season's performance (or lack thereof).

The net off/on stat could mean nothing more than he doesn't get to play with our best players. It doesn't necessarily indicate how well his skill set could help our best 5 perform better, which is what you would want to know.

[Najee12]

Personally, I would entertain a deal for the Los Angeles Clippers' Danilo Gallinari before considering a deal for Kevin Love. The Clippers are looking to move Gallinari to have more cap space. Gallinari has an expiring deal at $22.6 million and had a better 2018-19 season than Love.

Portland easily could trade Meyers Leonard and Moe Harkless for Gallinari:

https://basketball.realgm.com/tradechecker/saved_trade/7218037

or trade Kent Bazemore for Gallinari:

https://basketball.realgm.com/tradechecker/saved_trade/7218038

It's a low-risk upgrade at the forward spots without having to go "all-in" on a player with multiple years as a declining asset.

If they want to trade him for cap space, they'd need to trade him to a team that has cap space.

I am assuming the Clippers would have a separate, outside trade with another team in addition to this deal, since there was a report the Clippers were looking at multiple trade offers to clear cap space to give max contracts to Kawhi Leonard and Jimmy Butler. I apologize for not explaining the context fully in my initial post.

Gallo would be a fantastic fit, but I don't think the Clips are all that interested in moving him.

Please see my response to Sinobas.

[DusterBuster]

Personally, I would entertain a deal for the Los Angeles Clippers' Danilo Gallinari before considering a deal for Kevin Love. The Clippers are looking to move Gallinari to have more cap space. Gallinari has an expiring deal at $22.6 million and had a better 2018-19 season than Love.

Portland easily could trade Meyers Leonard and Moe Harkless for Gallinari:

https://basketball.realgm.com/tradechecker/saved_trade/7218037

or trade Kent Bazemore for Gallinari:

https://basketball.realgm.com/tradechecker/saved_trade/7218038

It's a low-risk upgrade at the forward spots without having to go "all-in" on a player with multiple years as a declining asset.

If they want to trade him for cap space, they'd need to trade him to a team that has cap space.

I am assuming the Clippers would have a separate, outside trade with another team in addition to this deal, since there was a report the Clippers were looking at multiple trade offers to clear cap space to give max contracts to Kawhi Leonard and Jimmy Butler. I apologize for not explaining the context fully in my initial post.

Gallo would be a fantastic fit, but I don't think the Clips are all that interested in moving him.

Please see my response to Sinobas.

Butler is going to the Heat per recent reports.

[Epicurus]

Meyers is a good shooter, and his shooting percentages look good on paper (his ts% is 2nd best in the league) but his hesitation to pull the trigger on open shots often leads to someone else having to hoist up a bad shot...and you can see Stotts being demonstritavly frustrated with Meyers on the sideline when he does that. And those types of things don't show up on the stat sheet.

And he still has no post up came to be able to take advantage of smaller players. And inside, if he can't jam it's like floater or nothing.

Shooting percentages can be over-valued because they often don't extrapolate out to more attempts, and I think this is true with Meyers. He attempted 242 shots last year.


But heck, with his shooting percentages, and the fact that he's expiring, hey may not actually have negative trade value anymore. But now our problem is that we're really low on bodies at C.

Actually the on/off stat sheet shows the problem with Leonard. His net off/on is in the bottom 7th percentile. Although with Meyers on court the Blazers shoot well; but on all the other four factors (offensive and defensive) the Blazers do comparatively poorly. On the other hand, his latest games may just negate the season's performance (or lack thereof).

The net off/on stat could mean nothing more than he doesn't get to play with our best players. It doesn't necessarily indicate how well his skill set could help our best 5 perform better, which is what you would want to know.

The comparative ranking negates much of your criticism, unless, of course, you believe he's sui generis on the team and within the league of playing with inferior players. I am reasonably sure that lineup analysis reinforces the net on/off.

[B0naf1d3]

I'm still hoping for an Otto Porter trade, but the Bulls seem pretty high on him. Getting him last year at the deadline would have been huge. Harkless + Leonard + Trent + 2020 1st is a decent offer though. Saves 28m for them in 20-21. He's the one guy we know for sure Olshey has targeted and almost acquired.

[d-train]

Actually the on/off stat sheet shows the problem with Leonard. His net off/on is in the bottom 7th percentile. Although with Meyers on court the Blazers shoot well; but on all the other four factors (offensive and defensive) the Blazers do comparatively poorly. On the other hand, his latest games may just negate the season's performance (or lack thereof).

The net off/on stat could mean nothing more than he doesn't get to play with our best players. It doesn't necessarily indicate how well his skill set could help our best 5 perform better, which is what you would want to know.

The comparative ranking negates much of your criticism, unless, of course, you believe he's sui generis on the team and within the league of playing with inferior players. I am reasonably sure that lineup analysis reinforces the net on/off.

I think nothing curtails the problem with your statistical analysis.

[d-train]

I'm still hoping for an Otto Porter trade, but the Bulls seem pretty high on him. Getting him last year at the deadline would have been huge. Harkless + Leonard + Trent + 2020 1st is a decent offer though. Saves 28m for them in 20-21. He's the one guy we know for sure Olshey has targeted and almost acquired.

How do we know that?

[Najee12]

Butler is going to the Heat per recent reports.

Unless Miami can somehow shed $60 million-plus in salary (very, very hard to do) to create the necessary space needed to sign Jimmy Butler, it would have to add Butler through a sign-and-trade deal with the 76ers. The Heat would need to convince the 76ers that it’s in their best interest to cooperate and agree to trade rather than losing Butler for nothing and just opening cap space.

But that's for another topic, of course.

[DusterBuster]

Butler is going to the Heat per recent reports.

Unless Miami can somehow shed $60 million-plus in salary (very, very hard to do) to create the necessary space needed to sign Jimmy Butler, it would have to add Butler through a sign-and-trade deal with the 76ers. The Heat would need to convince the 76ers that it’s in their best interest to cooperate and agree to trade rather than losing Butler for nothing and just opening cap space.

But that's for another topic, of course.

Read on Twitter

Sixers are willing to do a S&T if they can't convince him to stay.

Philly just gave away about half a decades worth of assets to get Butler and Harris, at this point their in such a tough spot that they kinda can't afford to lose him for absolutely nothing.

[Epicurus]

The net off/on stat could mean nothing more than he doesn't get to play with our best players. It doesn't necessarily indicate how well his skill set could help our best 5 perform better, which is what you would want to know.

The comparative ranking negates much of your criticism, unless, of course, you believe he's sui generis on the team and within the league of playing with inferior players. I am reasonably sure that lineup analysis reinforces the net on/off.

I think nothing curtails the problem with your statistical analysis.

Not confirming your bias is not problematic. Leonard comparatively does exceptionally poor in on/off court, both on the team and in the league. No amount of qualifications erases that reality. I suspect that reality impacts his playing time heretofore, despite his good efg%.

[d-train]

The comparative ranking negates much of your criticism, unless, of course, you believe he's sui generis on the team and within the league of playing with inferior players. I am reasonably sure that lineup analysis reinforces the net on/off.

I think nothing curtails the problem with your statistical analysis.

Not confirming your bias is not problematic. Leonard comparatively does exceptionally poor in on/off court, both on the team and in the league. No amount of qualifications erases that reality. I suspect that reality impacts his playing time heretofore, despite his good efg%.

Who are the rest of the players on the court with him when he is getting his "on court stats" vs who is playing when he is off the court?

[Epicurus]

Is there something about "comparative" that can't be understood? Yes, not looking comparatively at on/off is not useful, as it is by itself dependent upon the factors you name. But when a player is so low in the league's percentiles, then one might see that player as not useful on the court.

[d-train]

Is there something about "comparative" that can't be understood? Yes, not looking comparatively at on/off is not useful, as it is by itself dependent upon the factors you name. But when a player is so low in the league's percentiles, then one might see that player as not useful on the court.

Since you have a problem with simple questions, I don't know what YOU define "comparative" to mean. Here's another simple question, how many minutes did Leonard play with Lillard, CJ, Nurkic, and Aminu? Second simple question, how many minutes did Lillard, CJ, Nurkic, and Aminu play with a player other than Leonard?

[Epicurus]

Comparative would refer obviously (and as already explained) to his percentile ranking on net on/off in the league. Only 7% of all players have a worse such ranking. Your simple questions are not relevant to my point (or its negation). But you can look up yourself at several sights for the answer to these questions you pose. Yet again they are irrelevant vastly to my point.

[d-train]

Comparative would refer obviously (and as already explained) to his percentile ranking on net on/off in the league. Only 7% of all players have a worse such ranking. Your simple questions are not relevant to my point (or its negation). But you can look up yourself at several sights for the answer to these questions you pose. Yet again they are irrelevant vastly to my point.

So, you have no argument against Leonard's on/off numbers being skewed because his on court numbers are with mostly our worst players and his off court numbers are mostly our best players. Essentially, it's a stat that has nothing to do with how well Leonard helps the team.

[Epicurus]

Comparative would refer obviously (and as already explained) to his percentile ranking on net on/off in the league. Only 7% of all players have a worse such ranking. Your simple questions are not relevant to my point (or its negation). But you can look up yourself at several sights for the answer to these questions you pose. Yet again they are irrelevant vastly to my point.

So, you have no argument against Leonard's on/off numbers being skewed because his on court numbers are with mostly our worst players and his off court numbers are mostly our best players. Essentially, it's a stat that has nothing to do with how well Leonard helps the team.

I am beginning to think that my remarks about comparatively and percentile do not make it onto your screen.

[DaVoiceMaster]

Zach Collins @ 21 years old: 17.6 mpg, 6.6 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 0.9 apg, .473 FG%, .331 3pt%, .562 TS%
CJ McCollum @ 21 years old: 00.0 mpg, 0.0 ppg, 0.0 rpg, 0.0 apg, .000 FG%, .000 3pt%, .000 TS%

Zach Collins @ 2nd season (21): 17.6 mpg, 6.6 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 0.9 apg, .473 FG%, .331 3pt%, .562 TS%
CJ McCollum @ 2nd season (23): 15.7 mpg, 6.8 ppg, 1.5 rpg, 1.0 apg, .436 FG%, .396 3pt%, .534 TS%


Imagine if you had the same outlook on CJ after his 2nd year, well before you put him in the "special player" for a trade category

CJ didn't play his rookie season due to injury, was stuck behind Matthews and others his second season, then turned it on his third season when he actually got a chance to play. "Imagine" if the Blazers didn't trade for Aflallo and played CJ instead when Matthews went down. Collins has had a chance to play since his rookie season and only had Aminu in his way. Sure, he's shown glimpses, but I'm not going to get excited about the guy until he can put a long stretch of games together where he can actually stay out of foul trouble, play extended minutes, make shots consistently, and not make bonehead fouls on defense.

CJ did play the 2nd half of his rookie season, and was also 23 years old by his 2nd season where he got stuck behind Afflalo (essentially Kent Bazemore). He was young, and wasn't ready. His numbers showed flashes and potential, but not fully realized. Collins has shown flashes and potential, but not fully realized. Collins has been stuck behind Nurkic and later Kanter (similar to the Afflalo trade). You can't dispute that those numbers in their 2nd season are very similar.

There's no doubt that Collins needs to get bigger and better with fouling, but at his age, McCollum was still playing at Lehigh University. Collins is banging with NBA centers. All that being said, I still don't see him as a PF and think that Portland is better off trading him (which sucks for me as a big fan of his) sooner than later, seeing as though I don't see Nurkic going anywhere. Zach's long term position is Center. He even said himself in exit interviews that he thinks he's more of a Center. Personally, I hope he's packaged in a deal for a PF and he gets a chance to be a real Center somewhere else.

This season will be the deciding factor. CJ broke out in his 3rd season. Will Collins have a breakout year? I've not seen anything to suggest that yet.

[d-train]

Comparative would refer obviously (and as already explained) to his percentile ranking on net on/off in the league. Only 7% of all players have a worse such ranking. Your simple questions are not relevant to my point (or its negation). But you can look up yourself at several sights for the answer to these questions you pose. Yet again they are irrelevant vastly to my point.

So, you have no argument against Leonard's on/off numbers being skewed because his on court numbers are with mostly our worst players and his off court numbers are mostly our best players. Essentially, it's a stat that has nothing to do with how well Leonard helps the team.

I am beginning to think that my remarks about comparatively and percentile do not make it onto your screen.

I know when someone is blowing smoke where the sun don't shine.

[d-train]

CJ didn't play his rookie season due to injury, was stuck behind Matthews and others his second season, then turned it on his third season when he actually got a chance to play. "Imagine" if the Blazers didn't trade for Aflallo and played CJ instead when Matthews went down. Collins has had a chance to play since his rookie season and only had Aminu in his way. Sure, he's shown glimpses, but I'm not going to get excited about the guy until he can put a long stretch of games together where he can actually stay out of foul trouble, play extended minutes, make shots consistently, and not make bonehead fouls on defense.

CJ did play the 2nd half of his rookie season, and was also 23 years old by his 2nd season where he got stuck behind Afflalo (essentially Kent Bazemore). He was young, and wasn't ready. His numbers showed flashes and potential, but not fully realized. Collins has shown flashes and potential, but not fully realized. Collins has been stuck behind Nurkic and later Kanter (similar to the Afflalo trade). You can't dispute that those numbers in their 2nd season are very similar.

There's no doubt that Collins needs to get bigger and better with fouling, but at his age, McCollum was still playing at Lehigh University. Collins is banging with NBA centers. All that being said, I still don't see him as a PF and think that Portland is better off trading him (which sucks for me as a big fan of his) sooner than later, seeing as though I don't see Nurkic going anywhere. Zach's long term position is Center. He even said himself in exit interviews that he thinks he's more of a Center. Personally, I hope he's packaged in a deal for a PF and he gets a chance to be a real Center somewhere else.

This season will be the deciding factor. CJ broke out in his 3rd season. Will Collins have a breakout year? I've not seen anything to suggest that yet.

CJ would have broke out his 1st year if the playing time was there.

[HoopsFanAZ]

What's really clear to me is Olshey is going all in to build a team. When Nurkic returns, the starting lineup will be better with Hood in, Harkless off the bench, and Aminu gone.

1. Dame gets paid. HUGE. Don't underestimate the positive effects.
2. Bazemore > Turner
3. Makes the easy play with Little at SF
4. QO results for Jake pending
5. Hood signed -- against the odds -- for only the taxpayer-MLE
6. Aminu leaves and Collins starts.

REALLY strong, smart moves operating within a tight situation of his own creation. Good job, Mr. Olshey.
Next up, obviously, is a minimum contract for a big. A vet minimum at PG makes sense.

Trades of MHEC and/or MLEC? Get that veteran BIG, and he can deal if it makes sense ... or if it just makes sense.