Rainwater wrote:I am just being honest here but they are fully rebuilding. They are currently building this team with scraps and and young guys. This might be a 3 to 4 year process until the Wiz compete again. I just don't see the Wiz wasting cash on another guy when they aren't winning and by the time they are ready to compete Beal will be 29, 30. And I don't think Beal wants waste his prime not completing. That is just me.
Call it what you want. But I think we need to get out of this mindset that you are either competing or you are tanking for years and years to land high picks until you build a base of talent and then you try and compete again. With the exception of Philly, nearly all of the currently good teams did not spend years and years in the lottery in a long term rebuilding strategy. They maybe dipped into the mid-to-late lottery once and then, through smart and steady improvement, got better and better.
- Boston traded the vets for picks and never had to bottom out.
- Toronto had no high picks on their roster.
- Milwaukee had one trip to the top of the lottery and got Jabari Parker. The built their team with smart late picks.
- Indiana got Paul George in the late lottery and later Miles Turner. They never picked below 10th.
- Portland got Dame with the 6th pick and McCollum with the 10th and never looked back
- Denver struck out with Mudiay at 7th and picked Murray at 7th, all their other good players were picked late.
- In Utah's one trip to the high lottery, they got Exum. They're good because they found Mitchell, Ingles and Gobert late.
- Houston hasn't had a top 7 pick since Yao Ming in 2002.
- San Antonio hasn't had a lotto pick since Tim Duncan.
- Brooklyn built this team with no high picks because they traded them all to Boston.
Most of the teams that have tried to tank and rebuild over multiple years have failed: Phoenix, New York, Orlando, Lakers. Among the good teams, only Philly, OKC and arguably Golden State had any type of "rebuild" where they intentionally sucked for multiple years in an effort to accumulate talent. And Philly is showing the folly of that strategy. Brand has already traded away most of the fruits of their trips to the lottery. It's just Simmons, Embiid and some highly overpaid free agents now. They're going to be a luxtax team with no depth, and probably still won't win.
The way to get good is consistency. Draft wisely, don't overpay free agents, trade money for more picks when you have the chance, avoid losing assets for nothing, develop your talent. You don't need to tank. And with the current rule change for the lottery, tanking is even less useful.
I feel like the Wizards are doing things the right way now. Sheppard is maximizing all of his assets. He's using TPE's to get picks and young guys (Lakers trade, Simmons trade). He isn't overpaying for free agents (well, maybe Ish Smith, but that's only a 2-year deal). They're not squandering assets (turning Sato into future 2nd rounders instead of letting him go for nothing). They're developing home grown talent (Bryant).
I think they will take the opportunity of Wall's injury to tank one year while developing their young players, but I really think they will be on a steady upward trend after that. The one thing they need to get right is drafting well. We won't know how that's going until next season plays out. If Brown and Hachimura develop into legit starting caliber players, they'll have their starting 5 in place as soon as 2020: Wall, Beal, Brown, Hachimura, Bryant, plus a high lotto pick from the 2020 draft.