Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXVII

[deneem4]

The only thing that is left to figure out is if Beal is all in for the rebuild or not. If he is in then we have to trust the process if not then we need to see what the market is for him

We’re not in a rebuild and we’re not trading Beal

LOL... c'mon deneem. We have a dozen new players in the building! We have only 5 players on the team from last year. 2 of them are only here because we haven't been able to get rid of them (yet Howard will likely go). No chance either of them will be with the team next year at the very latest.

That's called rebuilding!

At the same time, you are right that we aren't trading Beal.

Where I don't quite agree w/ you KTJ is the phrase "figure out." At present Brad is clearly "in" for the rebuild. He knows what Tommy is doing. Common sense tells you that they let him (& John) know in advance what they had in mind. But... people change their minds. So there's kinda no such thing as all in, or at least that's not something that we can "figure out."

All the more reason to extend him. Likely that's what you mean anyway?

We’re trying to fix Ernie mistakes...
Not rebuilding...

[bgroban]

Nothing to base this off of other than instinct, but if the team at a minimum meets expectations next season - albeit lower - and Wall can prove himself to be reasonably back to being the Wall of old whenever that time comes, I can see Tommy trying to trade Wall to a large market squad (ie Lakers, Knicks) who could absorb that contract.

[deneem4]

We’re like OKC, we have had no real options this offseason...
Mostly because of what Ernie did last season
We traded players with some what positive value for expirings...
Sato got us back more than kelly and Otto combined...
But we’re not rebuilding....we’re trying to surround what talent we have with nba ready youth and players that fit the mold of whatever brooks and Sheppard are trying to develop...

[nate33]

Nothing to base this off of other than instinct, but if the team at a minimum meets expectations next season - albeit lower - and Wall can prove himself to be reasonably back to being the Wall of old whenever that time comes, I can see Tommy trying to trade Wall to a large market squad (ie Lakers, Knicks) who could absorb that contract.

Yes, that's a possibility.

There will be teams with cap room and practically no free agents out there. And with contracts like Terry Rozier at 3 years $58M, Tobias Harris at 5 years $180M, Khris Middleton at 5 years 178M , Porzingis at 5 years $158M and Harrison Barnes at 4 years $85M, suddenly, John Wall with 3 years and $132M remaining doesn't look so horrific.

Or maybe the trade is made during the middle of the 2020-21 season after Wall has played 30 games and looked pretty good. A team could send back bad expiring contracts and they would effectively only be taking on 2 years of a healthy John Wall at $85M.

[nate33]

I wonder if any teams out there are in need of a handful of young end of bench prospects and would be willing to trade one larger contract. We do it to consolidate the end of our bench. We've got like 17-18 guys. We can't keep them all.

Would New York trade Ntilikina for, say, Bonga + Phillip + Robinson?

[payitforward]

We’re like OKC, we have had no real options this offseason...
Mostly because of what Ernie did last season
We traded players with some what positive value for expirings...
Sato got us back more than kelly and Otto combined...
But we’re not rebuilding....we’re trying to surround what talent we have with nba ready youth and players that fit the mold of whatever brooks and Sheppard are trying to develop...

No problem, no need to argue: we agree about what's happening. Call it what you want!

[payitforward]

I wonder if any teams out there are in need of a handful of young end of bench prospects and would be willing to trade one larger contract. We do it to consolidate the end of our bench. We've got like 17-18 guys. We can't keep them all.

Would New York trade Ntilikina for, say, Bonga + Phillip + Robinson?

It's the Knicks; lets aim higher!

Mo Wagner, Bonga, Phillip & a R2 pick for Mitchell Robinson? Would they could they...?

[payitforward]

I wonder if any teams out there are in need of a handful of young end of bench prospects and would be willing to trade one larger contract. We do it to consolidate the end of our bench. We've got like 17-18 guys. We can't keep them all.

Would New York trade Ntilikina for, say, Bonga + Phillip + M. Robinson?

It's the Knicks; lets aim higher!

Mo Wagner, Bonga, Phillip & a R2 pick for Mitchell Robinson? Would they could they...?

Forgot to mention -- I get the sense that Tommy thinks they got a bargain in Justin Robinson. I'm happy to let Mo Wagner go -- especially in the trade I suggested. But, might be other possibilities.

[Illmatic12]

...By this time next year, if Wall is back healthy and our young players progressed, we will be in decent position to either compete or make a move to get back to competing with the Wall/Beal core. If John's health is looking shaky or it looks like the timeline to be a playoff team is further off than it appears, then Brad might change his mind on his commitment. Which is fine , we would proceed to trade him and get a haul of assets back and then keep it rolling. No harm no foul.

Compete for what a year from now? To "be a playoff team"? Screw that -- that's the Ernie model.

More than half the teams in the league are "playoff teams" -- competing for that is competing to be average. & anyway it won't happen.

In fact, we haven't done much more than "compete to be average" at any time with "the Wall/Beal core." Our best year depended on a) a career year from Wall, & b) Otto Porter who had at least as good a year as Wall & a better one than Beal. Our 2d best year was a complete outlier, as it was a function of an all-star 1/3 of a season from the late Rasual Butler & a 1-year visit from Paul Pierce (we started that year 19-6; we closed it 27-30).

I hope we want to become a good team -- one that for a nice string of years is reliably in the top 20% of the league. If you think that the Wall/Beal/Porter core was ever there, you're dreaming. In our very best season we had the 9th best record of 30 teams. One year. Big deal.

By the time we've accumulated the players even to get to that point again, John Wall will be at least 31 years old. Assuming an optimal recovery from his current injury -- & assuming no further injuries -- he has a shot to be playing quite well. But it's a stretch, a huge stretch, to imagine that at that point he'll have the significance to the team that he once had or be at the level of Beal.

If Thomas Bryant continues his development at last year's pace & turns himself into one of the best bigs in the league, If Rui Hachimura becomes an outstanding player in two years, if Schofield becomes a solid rotation player, if Robinson & Jones do that too, if Mo Wagner becomes a reliable journeyman, & if we have a really good draft next year, then in 2021-22 (especially if we've had a solid 2021 draft) we should be able to make the playoffs.

More importantly, at that point, we should have a picture of what we still need to do to become one of the top teams in the league & contend for a title.

The Ernie model?? Wait.. I didn't say anything about trading 1st round picks! Lol. EGs downfall was that he consistently devalued future assets, traded young for old, made frivolous decisions with capspace. Thankfully that's the mindset the franchise seems to be going away from.

There's nothing wrong with trying to put together a competitive team while simultaneously building for the future. Toronto, Denver have shown you can do that. According to Fred Katz, the team is beefing up the DC Go-Go operation and they want to turn it into a farm system for young talent , similar to what the Raptors have done (Van Fleet, Siakam, Anunoby ,Powell etc all came up through their G-League team as well as their coach Nick Nurse). That's what we were missing under Ernie , we never had a strong organizational focus on scouting and player development .

We have all of our future 1sts and Tommy seems to be hoarding 2nd round picks like the Cookie monster loves cookies. Unlike the Grunfeld-regime, there's a *chance* that any of those draft picks can turn into solid developmental projects who can eventually fill in gaps in our roster for cheap. If your argument is that we need to bottom out record-wise in order to draft quality players, that was never really true and such a strategy is even less worthwhile now that they've changed the lottery system. Chances are this upcoming season will lead to another lottery pick , but with Wall back healthy and more capspace available next summer I see no reason why we need to continue the bottom-out approach. To me this is a temporary 1 season dip that will lay the groundwork for the franchise's permanent approach moving forward (regardless of whether Wall and Beal's future is in DC)

[payitforward]

...By this time next year, if Wall is back healthy and our young players progressed, we will be in decent position to either compete or make a move to get back to competing with the Wall/Beal core. If John's health is looking shaky or it looks like the timeline to be a playoff team is further off than it appears, then Brad might change his mind on his commitment. Which is fine , we would proceed to trade him and get a haul of assets back and then keep it rolling. No harm no foul.

Compete for what a year from now? To "be a playoff team"? Screw that -- that's the Ernie model.

More than half the teams in the league are "playoff teams" -- competing for that is competing to be average. & anyway it won't happen.

In fact, we haven't done much more than "compete to be average" at any time with "the Wall/Beal core." Our best year depended on a) a career year from Wall, & b) Otto Porter who had at least as good a year as Wall & a better one than Beal. Our 2d best year was a complete outlier, as it was a function of an all-star 1/3 of a season from the late Rasual Butler & a 1-year visit from Paul Pierce (we started that year 19-6; we closed it 27-30).

I hope we want to become a good team -- one that for a nice string of years is reliably in the top 20% of the league. If you think that the Wall/Beal/Porter core was ever there, you're dreaming. In our very best season we had the 9th best record of 30 teams. One year. Big deal.

By the time we've accumulated the players even to get to that point again, John Wall will be at least 31 years old. Assuming an optimal recovery from his current injury -- & assuming no further injuries -- he has a shot to be playing quite well. But it's a stretch, a huge stretch, to imagine that at that point he'll have the significance to the team that he once had or be at the level of Beal.

If Thomas Bryant continues his development at last year's pace & turns himself into one of the best bigs in the league, If Rui Hachimura becomes an outstanding player in two years, if Schofield becomes a solid rotation player, if Robinson & Jones do that too, if Mo Wagner becomes a reliable journeyman, & if we have a really good draft next year, then in 2021-22 (especially if we've had a solid 2021 draft) we should be able to make the playoffs.

More importantly, at that point, we should have a picture of what we still need to do to become one of the top teams in the league & contend for a title.

The Ernie model?? Wait.. I didn't say anything about trading 1st round picks! Lol. EGs downfall was that he consistently devalued future assets, traded young for old, made frivolous decisions with capspace. Thankfully that's the mindset the franchise seems to be going away from.

There's nothing wrong with trying to put together a competitive team while simultaneously building for the future. Toronto, Denver have shown you can do that. According to Fred Katz, the team is beefing up the DC Go-Go operation and they want to turn it into a farm system for young talent , similar to what the Raptors have done (Van Fleet, Siakam, Anunoby ,Powell etc all came up through their G-League team as well as their coach Nick Nurse). That's what we were missing under Ernie , we never had a strong organizational focus on scouting and player development .

We have all of our future 1sts and Tommy seems to be hoarding 2nd round picks like the Cookie monster loves cookies. Unlike the Grunfeld-regime, there's a *chance* that any of those draft picks can turn into solid developmental projects who can eventually fill in gaps in our roster for cheap. If your argument is that we need to bottom out record-wise in order to draft quality players, that was never really true and such a strategy is even less worthwhile now that they've changed the lottery system. Chances are this upcoming season will lead to another lottery pick , but with Wall back healthy and more capspace available next summer I see no reason why we need to continue the bottom-out approach. To me this is a temporary 1 season dip that will lay the groundwork for the franchise's permanent approach moving forward (regardless of whether Wall and Beal's future is in DC)

Well, sure -- we should put together as competitive a team as possible. Given that we should not sign any vets long term, & that we have only 4 returning players who could conceivably contribute to our future, & one of them is injured & a question mark.

I'm not pessimistic, & I'm not trying to differ with you. Maybe really good things happen really quickly. Would be great!

[Illmatic12]

Compete for what a year from now? To "be a playoff team"? Screw that -- that's the Ernie model.

More than half the teams in the league are "playoff teams" -- competing for that is competing to be average. & anyway it won't happen.

In fact, we haven't done much more than "compete to be average" at any time with "the Wall/Beal core." Our best year depended on a) a career year from Wall, & b) Otto Porter who had at least as good a year as Wall & a better one than Beal. Our 2d best year was a complete outlier, as it was a function of an all-star 1/3 of a season from the late Rasual Butler & a 1-year visit from Paul Pierce (we started that year 19-6; we closed it 27-30).

I hope we want to become a good team -- one that for a nice string of years is reliably in the top 20% of the league. If you think that the Wall/Beal/Porter core was ever there, you're dreaming. In our very best season we had the 9th best record of 30 teams. One year. Big deal.

By the time we've accumulated the players even to get to that point again, John Wall will be at least 31 years old. Assuming an optimal recovery from his current injury -- & assuming no further injuries -- he has a shot to be playing quite well. But it's a stretch, a huge stretch, to imagine that at that point he'll have the significance to the team that he once had or be at the level of Beal.

If Thomas Bryant continues his development at last year's pace & turns himself into one of the best bigs in the league, If Rui Hachimura becomes an outstanding player in two years, if Schofield becomes a solid rotation player, if Robinson & Jones do that too, if Mo Wagner becomes a reliable journeyman, & if we have a really good draft next year, then in 2021-22 (especially if we've had a solid 2021 draft) we should be able to make the playoffs.

More importantly, at that point, we should have a picture of what we still need to do to become one of the top teams in the league & contend for a title.

The Ernie model?? Wait.. I didn't say anything about trading 1st round picks! Lol. EGs downfall was that he consistently devalued future assets, traded young for old, made frivolous decisions with capspace. Thankfully that's the mindset the franchise seems to be going away from.

There's nothing wrong with trying to put together a competitive team while simultaneously building for the future. Toronto, Denver have shown you can do that. According to Fred Katz, the team is beefing up the DC Go-Go operation and they want to turn it into a farm system for young talent , similar to what the Raptors have done (Van Fleet, Siakam, Anunoby ,Powell etc all came up through their G-League team as well as their coach Nick Nurse). That's what we were missing under Ernie , we never had a strong organizational focus on scouting and player development .

We have all of our future 1sts and Tommy seems to be hoarding 2nd round picks like the Cookie monster loves cookies. Unlike the Grunfeld-regime, there's a *chance* that any of those draft picks can turn into solid developmental projects who can eventually fill in gaps in our roster for cheap. If your argument is that we need to bottom out record-wise in order to draft quality players, that was never really true and such a strategy is even less worthwhile now that they've changed the lottery system. Chances are this upcoming season will lead to another lottery pick , but with Wall back healthy and more capspace available next summer I see no reason why we need to continue the bottom-out approach. To me this is a temporary 1 season dip that will lay the groundwork for the franchise's permanent approach moving forward (regardless of whether Wall and Beal's future is in DC)

Well, sure -- we should put together as competitive a team as possible. Given that we should not sign any vets long term, & that we have only 4 returning players who could conceivably contribute to our future, & one of them is injured & a question mark.

I'm not pessimistic, & I'm not trying to differ with you. Maybe really good things happen really quickly. Would be great!

Keep in mind this is only assuming Beal commits longterm.

If Beal wants out then I’m perfectly fine trading him and rolling over those assets into a more extended rebuild.

But with prime Beal and hopefully 70-75% prime Wall back in 2021 I think it’d be worth it to push for playoffs in the East. Especially if Rui and our 2020 draftee are ahead of schedule

[Jon_3232]

As a Raps fan....if we resign Leonard, my main target is Beal. I’d personally offer Siakam as a starter. I view Beal as a much better offensive player that’d be great with Leonard to help with the offensive load. Fellow raps fans don’t feel this way and wouldn’t do Siakam for Beal.

Would you Wiz fans do Beal for a package around Siakam ??

I like Siakam but feel he’s a guy who’s fan base has fallen too much in love with that they won’t trade for a superior player. Do I underestimate Siakam or am I over valuing Beal here

[pcbothwel]

As a Raps fan....if we resign Leonard, my main target is Beal. I’d personally offer Siakam as a starter. I view Beal as a much better offensive player that’d be great with Leonard to help with the offensive load. Fellow raps fans don’t feel this way and wouldn’t do Siakam for Beal.

Would you Wiz fans do Beal for a package around Siakam ??

I like Siakam but feel he’s a guy who’s fan base has fallen too much in love with that they won’t trade for a superior player. Do I underestimate Siakam or am I over valuing Beal here

As a Wiz fan...no chance.
1) Timeline: Siakim is cheap this year, and has a low cap hold next summer to sign FA's before officially signing his max... But what does that do for the Wiz? we have no intention of competing this year and next years FA class is historically awful

2) Talent: I love Siakim, but it feels a lot like the discussions people had about Ibaka 5-6 years ago and Draymond 2-3 years ago. Great defensive player that seems to improve vastly out of nowhere on the offensive side. But then as the scouting reports came out and their usage increased, the regressed back to their average.
Siakim is a fringe AS caliber player, but I think he is more or less capped out and will never reach the heights of Beal.

So we get the lesser of the players, at the same age-ish, with no real path to exploit the financial gains.

I have ZERO interest in trading Beal, but if we do, we rebuild, not reload. I want the "5 Year" package that NOP received.
1-2 good young players on Rookie deals, a top 8 pick, and multiple unprotected picks and swaps.

[nate33]

As a Raps fan....if we resign Leonard, my main target is Beal. I’d personally offer Siakam as a starter. I view Beal as a much better offensive player that’d be great with Leonard to help with the offensive load. Fellow raps fans don’t feel this way and wouldn’t do Siakam for Beal.

Would you Wiz fans do Beal for a package around Siakam ??

I like Siakam but feel he’s a guy who’s fan base has fallen too much in love with that they won’t trade for a superior player. Do I underestimate Siakam or am I over valuing Beal here

As a Wiz fan...no chance.
1) Timeline: Siakim is cheap this year, and has a low cap hold next summer to sign FA's before officially signing his max... But what does that do for the Wiz? we have no intention of competing this year and next years FA class is historically awful

2) Talent: I love Siakim, but it feels a lot like the discussions people had about Ibaka 5-6 years ago and Draymond 2-3 years ago. Great defensive player that seems to improve vastly out of nowhere on the offensive side. But then as the scouting reports came out and their usage increased, the regressed back to their average.
Siakim is a fringe AS caliber player, but I think he is more or less capped out and will never reach the heights of Beal.

So we get the lesser of the players, at the same age-ish, with no real path to exploit the financial gains.

I have ZERO interest in trading Beal, but if we do, we rebuild, not reload. I want the "5 Year" package that NOP received.
1-2 good young players on Rookie deals, a top 8 pick, and multiple unprotected picks and swaps.

Siakam strikes me as a guy that you love when he is making a couple million a year, but once he is on a big contract, he is no longer a positive value - sort of like Steven Adams and Clint Capela.

[pcbothwel]

As a Raps fan....if we resign Leonard, my main target is Beal. I’d personally offer Siakam as a starter. I view Beal as a much better offensive player that’d be great with Leonard to help with the offensive load. Fellow raps fans don’t feel this way and wouldn’t do Siakam for Beal.

Would you Wiz fans do Beal for a package around Siakam ??

I like Siakam but feel he’s a guy who’s fan base has fallen too much in love with that they won’t trade for a superior player. Do I underestimate Siakam or am I over valuing Beal here

As a Wiz fan...no chance.
1) Timeline: Siakim is cheap this year, and has a low cap hold next summer to sign FA's before officially signing his max... But what does that do for the Wiz? we have no intention of competing this year and next years FA class is historically awful

2) Talent: I love Siakim, but it feels a lot like the discussions people had about Ibaka 5-6 years ago and Draymond 2-3 years ago. Great defensive player that seems to improve vastly out of nowhere on the offensive side. But then as the scouting reports came out and their usage increased, the regressed back to their average.
Siakim is a fringe AS caliber player, but I think he is more or less capped out and will never reach the heights of Beal.

So we get the lesser of the players, at the same age-ish, with no real path to exploit the financial gains.

I have ZERO interest in trading Beal, but if we do, we rebuild, not reload. I want the "5 Year" package that NOP received.
1-2 good young players on Rookie deals, a top 8 pick, and multiple unprotected picks and swaps.

Siakam strikes me as a guy that you love when he is making a couple million a year, but once he is on a big contract, he is no longer a positive value - sort of like Steven Adams and Clint Capela.

...Or Otto Porter

[nuposse04]

Siakim created his own offense pretty well when leonard sat at times. He's probably fine as a 2nd/3rd option on a contender...

Siakim+a bunch of late 1sts isn't good enough though.

[payitforward]

As a Wiz fan...no chance.
1) Timeline: Siakim is cheap this year, and has a low cap hold next summer to sign FA's before officially signing his max... But what does that do for the Wiz? we have no intention of competing this year and next years FA class is historically awful

2) Talent: I love Siakim, but it feels a lot like the discussions people had about Ibaka 5-6 years ago and Draymond 2-3 years ago. Great defensive player that seems to improve vastly out of nowhere on the offensive side. But then as the scouting reports came out and their usage increased, the regressed back to their average.
Siakim is a fringe AS caliber player, but I think he is more or less capped out and will never reach the heights of Beal.

So we get the lesser of the players, at the same age-ish, with no real path to exploit the financial gains.

I have ZERO interest in trading Beal, but if we do, we rebuild, not reload. I want the "5 Year" package that NOP received.
1-2 good young players on Rookie deals, a top 8 pick, and multiple unprotected picks and swaps.

Siakam strikes me as a guy that you love when he is making a couple million a year, but once he is on a big contract, he is no longer a positive value - sort of like Steven Adams and Clint Capela.

...Or Otto Porter

Wow... I differ right down the line. Pascal Siakam just finished his 3d season. He got better his second season, & he got better again his third season. Will he get better once again his 4th season? How about his 5th? I don't know. Do you? Answer: no, you don't. So, "I think he is..." this that or the other thing is altogether meaningless: it's a report on what is going through your head. Period. How fascinating & important....

& using the occasion to ding Otto Porter for no reason is on the same level. Otto had an off-season. & who knows (see above), he may never be able to stay injury-free in a way that enables him to return to his production levels in 2016-7 & 2017-18 -- & then develop further from there. Too bad if so.

But in those years, he was better than Pascal Siakam has ever been to date, & he was also better than Brad Beal has ever been to date. (No doubt the response to that will be how little numbers matter, followed by another compelling report on whatever happens to be going through your mind.)

Now... that doesn't mean I'd think it was wise to trade Beal straight up for Siakam. It wouldn't be. Pascal Siakam is only 10 months younger than Bradley Beal. That's not something going through my mind; it's a fact in the real world. Statistical inquiries ("numbers") tell us that improvement starts to slow when you hit your mid-20's, you start to peak. Both guys can still improve, of course! But there's not a lot of likelihood that either will make a huge jump & equally little likelihood that Pascal will vault past Brad in productivity.

But, of course, a straight-up trade was not what the Raps fan suggested, was it? He asked about "a package based on Siakam" in return for Beal. Would we be interested? The answer is simple: of course we would! It just depends on the package. Duh.

Saying that doesn't mean I want to trade Beal. It means that calling anyone on a 32-win team sacrosanct or untouchable is idiotic.

[penbeast0]

Just for the sick to the stomach type though of it, I posted the question on the T&T board, "How many firsts would it take for Washington to consider dealing Beal for Wiggins straight up?" The contracts match reasonably well for the first three years and Wiggins is as bad a player as can be imagined to still have some upside while Beal is at the top of his value. I'm thinking at least 3 unprotected 1sts or 2 and a couple of top 10 protected at least . . . and still might not do it. But Wiggins is almost the perfect tank commander player if his contract were just shorter; as it is, it aligns with Wall's if the whole "find a team with enough cap space for 2-3 max deals and get 3 superstars who want to play together" is still a thing in 5 years.

On the other hand, 5 years of Wiggins.

https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1867290

[nate33]

Just for the sick to the stomach type though of it, I posted the question on the T&T board, "How many firsts would it take for Washington to consider dealing Beal for Wiggins straight up?" The contracts match reasonably well for the first three years and Wiggins is as bad a player as can be imagined to still have some upside while Beal is at the top of his value. I'm thinking at least 3 unprotected 1sts or 2 and a couple of top 10 protected at least . . . and still might not do it. But Wiggins is almost the perfect tank commander player if his contract were just shorter; as it is, it aligns with Wall's if the whole "find a team with enough cap space for 2-3 max deals and get 3 superstars who want to play together" is still a thing in 5 years.

On the other hand, 5 years of Wiggins.

https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1867290

Even 3 unprotected firsts wouldn't interest me. "Unprotected" sounds great, but a team with Beal and KAT isn't finishing at the bottom of the lottery anytime soon. I'm not trading Beal for what is likely to be the 17th, 21st and 23rd pick in the 2020, 2022 and 2024 drafts respectively.

[queridiculo]

Siakam strikes me as a guy that you love when he is making a couple million a year, but once he is on a big contract, he is no longer a positive value - sort of like Steven Adams and Clint Capela.

I think he'd be great value at $20 million even, the way the salary cap is heading this is essentially starter money.

What really gives me pause is his age.

He's only a year younger than Beal, how much better is he going to get?

You trade Beal for him you're basically making him the cornerstone of your franchise, he's not that type of guy.

Teams trying to build their franchise around him are going to be sorely disappointed.

He's great as your 3rd or 4th best player, anything else is a stretch.