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Suns record prediction 2019-20

Moderators: bwgood77, Qwigglez, lilfishi22

How many wins in 2020?

Above .500 (41+ wins)
8
13%
35-40
17
27%
30-34
27
42%
25-29
5
8%
20-24
6
9%
Below 20
1
2%
 
Total votes: 64

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lilfishi22
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Re: Suns record prediction 2019-20 

Post#81 » by lilfishi22 » Thu Jul 4, 2019 11:59 pm

Mystical Apples wrote:
lilfishi22 wrote:
Mystical Apples wrote:
Would you though? My intention was to verify the accuracy of what I provided from my admittedly faulty memory. Not trying to be flippant, just that stat dumps are a waste of time unless what's important and what's being measured are agreed upon.

Perhaps you can give me you're definition of creation and I'll try to cobble something together.

edit: Chart I compiled is along the general lines of what I'm referring to. It's team level from 2018, and trends change annually, but you get the idea.

Spoiler:
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I would. I ask because I haven't looked at the stats for Saric and Kaminsky and basing my opinion entirely on the eye test over their careers and I'm genuinely interested. Kaminsky is the one guy I've watched the least of because I was never high on him as a prospect and he's only ever been on a Charlotte team I never really cared for. So overall I've probably maybe watched about 4-60 of games of Kaminsky over his 4 yr career. Dario I've followed a lot closer because the Sixers and Wolves were interesting teams to watch. With Oubre I was always interested in following his development because he was a talented prospect with good physical traits to become really good.

What I was looking for is anything other than an eye test to support Saric or Kaminsky being better initiators than Oubre. To me, I'm looking at iso scoring


I looked at 3 seasons worth of data related to creation/playmaking. I could cover those specifics but TBH there's just not much indicating that Oubre is close to Saric and Kaminsky in either frequency or efficiency: Iso, post, off screen activity, short shot clocks under 4 seconds, ATO, unassisted 2fg rates, playmaking efficiency, drives, cumulative half court scoring + passing etc, 3P rates, FTA frequency, etc......

It feels like for everyone 1 metric where Oubre is close, there are 5 to 10 data points where he gets hammered. Oubre is closer to a bottom decile creator for wings and bottom quartile when bigs are included. For their part, Saric and Kaminsky are above average overall and top 75th percentile for bigs. Generally speaking Saric has Kaminsky on volume, Kaminsky has Saric on efficiency.

The 1st chart is what you were interested in seeing. It's 3 seasons worth of synergy data: the first several columns are half court scoring + passing efficiency overall. Next is Isolation + Post Ups with assists originating out of isolation. I even looked at adding Off Screen activity that generally favors wings but same deal, it doesn't help Oubre a whole lot because both PF are active off ball and direct screening activity.

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This second chart is for Drives + Playmaking efficiency. I'd consider these better measurements for overall creation especially when comparing non-primary handlers of similar usage. I included Mikal here because he had sufficient volume.

As a point of reference 2 players on this list would be at or above 75th percentile in drives PPP, 1 player in playmaking efficiency. Bridges, although on lighter volume from just 1 season, appears to feel the game very well.

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this is very enlightening. Without ever having subscribed to the Synergy, 2nd spectrum or other professional stat compiler sites, I've mostly just relied on what's available for free on NBA stats, BRef etc. So to have indepth data like this is pretty interesting.

So it seems that Oubre isn't the best option (prodctivity/efficieny standpoint) when it comes to offense and perhaps the reason he was used so often as a creator with us was because of our lack of creators outside of Booker in the 2nd half of the season. With guys like Rubio, Booker back healthy, Ayton potentially taking on more of an nitiator role, added offensive in Saric/Kaminsky and a revamped offensive system, he might see a reduction in his iso offensive creation.

I would love to see some metrics on off-ball scoring.
denial
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Re: Suns record prediction 2019-20 

Post#82 » by denial » Fri Jul 5, 2019 8:05 pm

Damkac wrote:I love how Jones defenders keep talking that the team got better.
Like getting slightly better than that crap team Suns had last season is some great achievement.


I think people defending these moves (including me) believe that we are much more than "slightly" better.
And no one said anything about great achievements. We just believe that based on what we could actually get that he did a good job. The team is completely revamped. A basketball team is not simply the sum of all its players. Chemistry and culture make a big difference. I think many of us believe that, analytics aside, the Suns as now construed are a significantly better basketball team than last year. Many people are talking 30-40 wins. That is a dramatic turnaround for a team.
I agree that being at the bottom makes it easier to double your win total in one season.

At the end of the day, we're just glad we actually got better. Not sure why that seems to seriously upset you.
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Damkac
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Re: Suns record prediction 2019-20 

Post#83 » by Damkac » Fri Jul 5, 2019 8:59 pm

I'm upset because I don't like the offseason moves, I think assets could be used better and while team get a bit better I doubt it will be much better. And a bit improved crap is still crap.

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