ImageImageImageImageImage

The Troy Brown Thread

Moderators: montestewart, nate33, LyricalRico

dckingsfan
RealGM
Posts: 15,478
And1: 3,458
Joined: May 28, 2010

Re: The Troy Brown Thread 

Post#441 » by dckingsfan » Wed Apr 17, 2019 9:26 pm

payitforward wrote:Shamet went #26.

Oh, & the Hawks didn't have the #27 pick.

Otherwise you've nailed it! :)

Doesn't matter really... I was thinking our #15 to the Sixers for their #s 26 & 38. Or to the Hawks for their #s30 & 34 -- which could have brought Spellman/Robinson.

hehehe - guess I wasn't even close :D

I guess my point is - you would have to be pretty gifted to know to trade down for those two players. Doable, but not by the previous GM whose name shall be repeated.
User avatar
nate33
Forum Mod - Wizards
Forum Mod - Wizards
Posts: 54,281
And1: 8,465
Joined: Oct 28, 2002

Re: The Troy Brown Thread 

Post#442 » by nate33 » Fri Jul 5, 2019 7:51 pm

Reposting from the Summer League thread:

queridiculo wrote:Easy to forget, Troy Brown Jr. hasn't even turned 20 yet.

Agreed.

People want to write Brown off as just a role player because he didn't do all that much in his rookie season. Remember that the Wizards ALWAYS bring along their new draft picks slowly (well, ever since Beal, at least). Porter didn't play his rookie year. Oubre didn't play his rookie year.

Indeed, in the limited minutes available, Brown significantly outplayed the first seasons of both Oubre and Porter, despite being a year younger and playing without Wall to take off some of the defensive pressure. And he played the most minutes:

Image

Brown might be the best of the trio.

Things really started to click with Porter midway through his second season and he was exceptional by his third year. If Brown follows the same path, we have another building block.

Looking deep into Brown's numbers, there really is a lot to like. The 19-year-old had almost a 3:1 A/TO ratio! Look at his foul rate compared to Oubre and Porter. And he rebounds as well as Oubre and Porter (both of whom are exceptional rebounders at the SF position). All the high bball IQ indicators are there. If his shot comes around, the young man is going to be good.
User avatar
Illuminaire
Veteran
Posts: 2,722
And1: 367
Joined: Jan 04, 2010
 

Re: The Troy Brown Thread 

Post#443 » by Illuminaire » Fri Jul 5, 2019 8:19 pm

nate33 wrote:If his shot comes around, the young man is going to be good.


That's the big IF. I wish him the best, and hope he works hard to improve. The low FT% is a bad sign, but Porter managed to significantly improve both his FT% and long range shooting between years one and three. If Troy shows a similar trajectory, he would become an outstanding combo guard/wing.
User avatar
nate33
Forum Mod - Wizards
Forum Mod - Wizards
Posts: 54,281
And1: 8,465
Joined: Oct 28, 2002

Re: The Troy Brown Thread 

Post#444 » by nate33 » Sat Jul 6, 2019 12:33 am

Illuminaire wrote:
nate33 wrote:If his shot comes around, the young man is going to be good.


That's the big IF. I wish him the best, and hope he works hard to improve. The low FT% is a bad sign, but Porter managed to significantly improve both his FT% and long range shooting between years one and three. If Troy shows a similar trajectory, he would become an outstanding combo guard/wing.

I don't think it's that big of an if. His shot isn't broken. He's not like MKG or Tony Allen or something. He may never be a lethal 3-point shooter like Porter, but I'm pretty confident he'll get his 3P% up to the 34-37% range - enough that teams will have to guard him out there.

He actually showed some pretty significant improvement throughout the season last year. Over the first five months of the season, he was 5/19 from 3-point range in 227 total minutes. That's 26% on 4.0 attempts per 48 minutes. In March and April, he made 17/50 from 3-point range in 504 total minutes. That's 34% on 4.8 attempts per 48 minutes. Increasing his attempts and percentages throughout the season is a good sign.
dckingsfan
RealGM
Posts: 15,478
And1: 3,458
Joined: May 28, 2010

Re: The Troy Brown Thread 

Post#445 » by dckingsfan » Sat Jul 6, 2019 6:25 pm

nate33 wrote:
Illuminaire wrote:
nate33 wrote:If his shot comes around, the young man is going to be good.


That's the big IF. I wish him the best, and hope he works hard to improve. The low FT% is a bad sign, but Porter managed to significantly improve both his FT% and long range shooting between years one and three. If Troy shows a similar trajectory, he would become an outstanding combo guard/wing.

I don't think it's that big of an if. His shot isn't broken. He's not like MKG or Tony Allen or something. He may never be a lethal 3-point shooter like Porter, but I'm pretty confident he'll get his 3P% up to the 34-37% range - enough that teams will have to guard him out there.

He actually showed some pretty significant improvement throughout the season last year. Over the first five months of the season, he was 5/19 from 3-point range in 227 total minutes. That's 26% on 4.0 attempts per 48 minutes. In March and April, he made 17/50 from 3-point range in 504 total minutes. That's 34% on 4.8 attempts per 48 minutes. Increasing his attempts and percentages throughout the season is a good sign.

And just going by this - I think a .370 should be expected.
User avatar
Illuminaire
Veteran
Posts: 2,722
And1: 367
Joined: Jan 04, 2010
 

Re: The Troy Brown Thread 

Post#446 » by Illuminaire » Sun Jul 7, 2019 1:09 am

He only shot 29% from the college three, with a sample size of 110 shots.

Why should the last 50 shots of his first NBA season be considered more significant than his first 19? What if he'd missed two shots more during that last 50... would you instead be arguing that the first 19 were more important, since the percentage was higher?

He could certainly improve. It would be great if he did. I'm sure he's doing everything he can to make that happen. But this is a hope - nothing more. His past performance provides only the slightest indication that improvement is happening.

So yes. It's a big IF.
User avatar
FAH1223
RealGM
Posts: 10,893
And1: 3,797
Joined: Nov 01, 2005
Location: Laurel, MD
       

Re: The Troy Brown Thread 

Post#447 » by FAH1223 » Sun Jul 7, 2019 5:46 pm

He’s developing

Looked good last night in first SL game
Image
trast66
Senior
Posts: 721
And1: 377
Joined: Oct 20, 2017
   

Re: The Troy Brown Thread 

Post#448 » by trast66 » Mon Jul 8, 2019 6:08 pm

nate33 wrote:Reposting from the Summer League thread:

queridiculo wrote:Easy to forget, Troy Brown Jr. hasn't even turned 20 yet.

Agreed.

People want to write Brown off as just a role player because he didn't do all that much in his rookie season. Remember that the Wizards ALWAYS bring along their new draft picks slowly (well, ever since Beal, at least). Porter didn't play his rookie year. Oubre didn't play his rookie year.

Indeed, in the limited minutes available, Brown significantly outplayed the first seasons of both Oubre and Porter, despite being a year younger and playing without Wall to take off some of the defensive pressure. And he played the most minutes:

Image

Brown might be the best of the trio.

Things really started to click with Porter midway through his second season and he was exceptional by his third year. If Brown follows the same path, we have another building block.

Looking deep into Brown's numbers, there really is a lot to like. The 19-year-old had almost a 3:1 A/TO ratio! Look at his foul rate compared to Oubre and Porter. And he rebounds as well as Oubre and Porter (both of whom are exceptional rebounders at the SF position). All the high bball IQ indicators are there. If his shot comes around, the young man is going to be good.


Will be interesting to see if red shirt rookie year for Rui this year, Tommy might look at that practice differently than Ernie.

I think Troy’s stroke is fine, he’s just has a very slow release. He can probably hit open 3 pointers all day in practice but not off the bounce or anyone within 4 feet. Seems like he enjoys playing basketball ball so I’m hopeful he will get to be serviceable in this area over the next 2 seasons.
User avatar
nate33
Forum Mod - Wizards
Forum Mod - Wizards
Posts: 54,281
And1: 8,465
Joined: Oct 28, 2002

Re: The Troy Brown Thread 

Post#449 » by nate33 » Mon Jul 8, 2019 6:14 pm

trast66 wrote:Will be interesting to see if red shirt rookie year for Rui this year, Tommy might look at that practice differently than Ernie.

I think Troy’s stroke is fine, he’s just has a very slow release. He can probably hit open 3 pointers all day in practice but not off the bounce or anyone within 4 feet. Seems like he enjoys playing basketball ball so I’m hopeful he will get to be serviceable in this area over the next 2 seasons.

Given the lack of power forwards on the roster, I'm thinking that the Wizards will definitely play Hachimura his rookie year.

They redshirted Brown, Oubre and Porter because they were trying to make the playoffs, but they didn't redshirt Beal or Wall. I'd say this year will be more like Beal or Wall's rookie year.
payitforward
RealGM
Posts: 12,250
And1: 3,829
Joined: May 02, 2012
Location: On the Atlantic

Re: The Troy Brown Thread 

Post#450 » by payitforward » Mon Jul 8, 2019 7:49 pm

Porter was injured his rookie year....
Remember -- if you don't like the post above: blame Doc not me.
User avatar
closg00
RealGM
Posts: 20,677
And1: 2,565
Joined: Nov 21, 2004

Re: The Troy Brown Thread 

Post#451 » by closg00 » Sun Jul 21, 2019 5:06 am

Probably a little unfair, both Mo and Troy are on the list.
Tank 19/20, trade Brad, Top-5 pick in 2020.
User avatar
FAH1223
RealGM
Posts: 10,893
And1: 3,797
Joined: Nov 01, 2005
Location: Laurel, MD
       

Re: The Troy Brown Thread 

Post#452 » by FAH1223 » Fri Jul 26, 2019 4:03 pm

Read on Twitter
Image
CntOutSmrtCrazy
Sixth Man
Posts: 1,967
And1: 444
Joined: Dec 08, 2011
Location: Formerly known as GilArenas88

Re: The Troy Brown Thread 

Post#453 » by CntOutSmrtCrazy » Fri Jul 26, 2019 6:45 pm

closg00 wrote:Probably a little unfair, both Mo and Troy are on the list.


I dunno, the Troy analysis was meh. Who here is really down about picking him at 15 with revisionist history/contextual evaluation aside? Draft evaluations after one year hold very little weight when we are talking about where he was selected. Though I get it, you have to put content up.
User avatar
nate33
Forum Mod - Wizards
Forum Mod - Wizards
Posts: 54,281
And1: 8,465
Joined: Oct 28, 2002

Re: The Troy Brown Thread 

Post#454 » by nate33 » Fri Jul 26, 2019 6:55 pm

CntOutSmrtCrazy wrote:
closg00 wrote:Probably a little unfair, both Mo and Troy are on the list.


I dunno, the Troy analysis was meh. Who here is really down about picking him at 15 with revisionist history/contextual evaluation aside? Draft evaluations after one year hold very little weight when we are talking about where he was selected. Though I get it, you have to put content up.

Agreed. Mitchell Robinson is the only guy picked lower than Brown ewho either is or projects to be clearly better than Brown. A couple of lower picks had arguably better seasons (Shamet, Huerter, Holiday), but after factoring their age (2.5 years older, 1 year older, and 3 years older respectively), I'm still feeling pretty good about the Brown pick.
payitforward
RealGM
Posts: 12,250
And1: 3,829
Joined: May 02, 2012
Location: On the Atlantic

Re: The Troy Brown Thread 

Post#455 » by payitforward » Fri Jul 26, 2019 11:28 pm

Brown has a shot to be a good player. That doesn't mean he was a good pick at #15.

A draft pick is an asset. When you get the most possible benefit from using that asset, you have done well in the draft. This is separate from the question whether someone is a good player.

For clarity: in 2011, the Cavs had the #4 pick in the draft. They chose Tristan Thompson. He has had a really good NBA career so far. Thompson is an excellent player.

OTOH, it seems quite likely that Cleveland could have traded that #4 pick to SA for their #15 & #29 picks in the same draft. Kawhi Leonard went #15. Jimmy Butler went #30 (hence could have been taken @#29). Had Cleveland made that move, we could say they had gotten the most possible benefit from having the #4 pick.

That doesn't change the fact that Tristan Thompson has been a terrific player. But it does reflect on the pick of Tristan Thompson.

A player is one thing; a pick is another & very different thing.
Remember -- if you don't like the post above: blame Doc not me.
User avatar
Mojo Amok
Pro Prospect
Posts: 756
And1: 632
Joined: Jan 28, 2017
 

Re: The Troy Brown Thread 

Post#456 » by Mojo Amok » Thu Sep 12, 2019 12:55 am

Sheppard went on to paint a very reasonable picture: Beal continues to grow as an All-NBA-level player, and while waiting for Wall to get back, the Wizards develop their younger players like Thomas Bryant, who they just signed to a three-year deal, Troy Brown, who Sheppard says Washington has "huge expectations for," and this year's No. 9 overall selection Rui Hachimura, who can hopefully use the increased opportunity available in Wall's absence to expedite his growth.


https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/wizards-gm-reiterates-commitment-to-keeping-bradley-beal-but-at-what-point-will-the-risk-outweigh-the-reward/

That was buried in the article about Beal.

Doesn't mean a huge amount from within a happy talk spitball session, but it does augur a bit for the front office pushing Brown to get substantive minutes this year. He might have a 'plays through mistakes' hall pass and Brooks' job security is likely that little incremental bit higher if Brown is progressing.
User avatar
Illmatic12
General Manager
Posts: 9,586
And1: 7,971
Joined: Dec 20, 2013
 

Re: The Troy Brown Thread 

Post#457 » by Illmatic12 » Thu Sep 12, 2019 2:20 am

Mojo Amok wrote:
Sheppard went on to paint a very reasonable picture: Beal continues to grow as an All-NBA-level player, and while waiting for Wall to get back, the Wizards develop their younger players like Thomas Bryant, who they just signed to a three-year deal, Troy Brown, who Sheppard says Washington has "huge expectations for," and this year's No. 9 overall selection Rui Hachimura, who can hopefully use the increased opportunity available in Wall's absence to expedite his growth.


https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/wizards-gm-reiterates-commitment-to-keeping-bradley-beal-but-at-what-point-will-the-risk-outweigh-the-reward/

That was buried in the article about Beal.

Doesn't mean a huge amount from within a happy talk spitball session, but it does augur a bit for the front office pushing Brown to get substantive minutes this year. He might have a 'plays through mistakes' hall pass and Brooks' job security is likely that little incremental bit higher if Brown is progressing.

Sheppard is a big fan of TB Jr, said he wanted him to play more last year and will make sure he does so this season.

Troy needs to be prepared for all the minutes he can handle. The way the roster is lined up , they badly need him to cover at least 30mpg at the wings. His development will swing our season more than anyone else on the team.

Personally I’m optimistic - Troy already displayed a complete floor game and didn’t really look out of place in the minutes he played last season.
payitforward
RealGM
Posts: 12,250
And1: 3,829
Joined: May 02, 2012
Location: On the Atlantic

Re: The Troy Brown Thread 

Post#458 » by payitforward » Thu Sep 12, 2019 3:03 am

Troy Brown had an excellent rookie season -- he was an above average NBA player at 18 years of age. Of course he needs to play more -- he needs to play 2000+ minutes.

Of course that doesn't mean he was a good draft pick at #15, since these are completely separate questions. No matter how much one tries to pretend they are the same.
Remember -- if you don't like the post above: blame Doc not me.
User avatar
nate33
Forum Mod - Wizards
Forum Mod - Wizards
Posts: 54,281
And1: 8,465
Joined: Oct 28, 2002

Re: The Troy Brown Thread 

Post#459 » by nate33 » Thu Sep 12, 2019 1:39 pm

payitforward wrote:Troy Brown had an excellent rookie season -- he was an above average NBA player at 18 years of age. Of course he needs to play more -- he needs to play 2000+ minutes.

Of course that doesn't mean he was a good draft pick at #15, since these are completely separate questions. No matter how much one tries to pretend they are the same.

I think he was a good draft pick. How many guys later than him would you rather have, after factoring age?
dckingsfan
RealGM
Posts: 15,478
And1: 3,458
Joined: May 28, 2010

Re: The Troy Brown Thread 

Post#460 » by dckingsfan » Thu Sep 12, 2019 3:15 pm

Illmatic12 wrote:
Mojo Amok wrote:
Sheppard went on to paint a very reasonable picture: Beal continues to grow as an All-NBA-level player, and while waiting for Wall to get back, the Wizards develop their younger players like Thomas Bryant, who they just signed to a three-year deal, Troy Brown, who Sheppard says Washington has "huge expectations for," and this year's No. 9 overall selection Rui Hachimura, who can hopefully use the increased opportunity available in Wall's absence to expedite his growth.


https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/wizards-gm-reiterates-commitment-to-keeping-bradley-beal-but-at-what-point-will-the-risk-outweigh-the-reward/

That was buried in the article about Beal.

Doesn't mean a huge amount from within a happy talk spitball session, but it does augur a bit for the front office pushing Brown to get substantive minutes this year. He might have a 'plays through mistakes' hall pass and Brooks' job security is likely that little incremental bit higher if Brown is progressing.

Sheppard is a big fan of TB Jr, said he wanted him to play more last year and will make sure he does so this season.

Troy needs to be prepared for all the minutes he can handle. The way the roster is lined up , they badly need him to cover at least 30mpg at the wings. His development will swing our season more than anyone else on the team.

Personally I’m optimistic - Troy already displayed a complete floor game and didn’t really look out of place in the minutes he played last season.

I think Troy needs to play guard more than SF (but I could definitely be off here).

Cosign on his and Bryant's development swinging the season. I really see no reason that those two don't progress in a big way.

One thing I find this interesting. How does Sheppard make sure he plays more? I don't believe our current coach knows how to position him to succeed - but I have no real evidence to back my belief other than he didn't get much time at guard during the summer league.

Return to Washington Wizards