Official Speculation Thread ‘19-'20 II: BIG as F

[MoMM]

I believe, but not 100% certain, that Marks is NOT counting Michael Carter-Williams in his current tax projections.

MCW’s 1.6M would give the Magic roughly 2.9M in wiggle room below the luxury tax.

More than enough room to sign a 15th player though.

So if someone offers Khem a measly $3 mil, we’re going to let him walk aren’t we?

No, because our cap includes his cap hold (1.8M), so we can pay 1.8M + 2.9/3.5M without going over the luxury tax.

[MoMM]

:banghead:

https://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.fcgi?request=1&sum=0&player_id1_hint=Terrence+Ross&player_id1_select=Terrence+Ross&y1=2019&player_id1=rosste01&idx=players&player_id2_hint=Evan+Fournier&player_id2_select=Evan+Fournier&y2=2019&player_id2=fournev01&idx=players

Ross was more valuable in almost every stat (advanced, not counting just raw stats) last year besides AST%.. dunno how it's even a debate who was better last year. Evan may have more tools at his disposal as a player but he was not very good/average for most of the season and Ross was literally the reason we won a lot of games by his steadiness off of the bench.

That being said, Ross before last year was obviously a coin flip, and Evan should have that label now too. I don't think it's a guarantee that either will be better than the other next year. Have to wait and see.

I love Ross but he is not close to being better than Fournier even in Evan down year.

You're either a Ross-hater or Fournier-stan if you think Ross wasn't close to as good as Fournier this year.

Perhaps Ross was a better player last season, but who had the best career so far?

[thelead]

I believe, but not 100% certain, that Marks is NOT counting Michael Carter-Williams in his current tax projections.

MCW’s 1.6M would give the Magic roughly 2.9M in wiggle room below the luxury tax.

More than enough room to sign a 15th player though.

So if someone offers Khem a measly $3 mil, we’re going to let him walk aren’t we?

No, because our cap includes his cap hold (1.8M), so we can pay 1.8M + 2.9/3.5M without going over the luxury tax.

Good catch. So it’s going to take a ~$5.5M offer to pry him away. That’s probably not going to happen but you never know.

[OrlandO]

I believe, but not 100% certain, that Marks is NOT counting Michael Carter-Williams in his current tax projections.

MCW’s 1.6M would give the Magic roughly 2.9M in wiggle room below the luxury tax.

More than enough room to sign a 15th player though.

Isn't the vet minimum for a player with MCW's experience closer to 2m?

[MoMM]

So if someone offers Khem a measly $3 mil, we’re going to let him walk aren’t we?

No, because our cap includes his cap hold (1.8M), so we can pay 1.8M + 2.9/3.5M without going over the luxury tax.

Good catch. So it’s going to take a ~$5.5M offer to pry him away. That’s probably not going to happen but you never know.

Yes, pretty unlikely, IMO. Boogie got 5M last season and 3.5M this year, not sure why Birch would get more than that.

[OrlandO]

It's July 7th and Birch hasn't been mentioned anywhere... it doesn't appear there is a market for Birch to get more than the minimum. Which teams are in desperate need of a backup C?

[MoMM]

I believe, but not 100% certain, that Marks is NOT counting Michael Carter-Williams in his current tax projections.

MCW’s 1.6M would give the Magic roughly 2.9M in wiggle room below the luxury tax.

More than enough room to sign a 15th player though.

Isn't the vet minimum for a player with MCW's experience closer to 2m?

Spotrac says 1.62M, I think they wouldn't be wrong about minimum contracts.
https://www.spotrac.com/nba/orlando-magic/yearly/cap/

[zaymon]

You're either a Ross-hater or Fournier-stan if you think Ross wasn't close to as good as Fournier this year.

Edit: and lol at the excuses made for Fournier's crap shooting year. As if Ross had 2016 Golden State spacing on our 2nd unit with MCW, Iwundu, Isaac, Birch.

It seems i am a rare magic fan who likes all of our players. Remember you are comparing shooting specialist to secondary ball handler and primary perimeter defender. I absolutly love Ross and atmosphere he brings for us i am happy he resigned with us ... but
Ross never could handle a starting role. He couldnt do it with Toronto he couldnt do it with us. You remember 2 years ago when he was Fournier age ? He asked to be benched becouse he couldnt keep up with the starters. He is not Ginobili who is too good to not be a lead ball handler, he is Ross who never had the talent to start on a contender. If he thought he is a starter he would sign with another team, but the guy is mature and knows his limitations. He is one of the best 6 th man in the league and he got paid like one.

You can call him whatever you want to call him but you're the one who said he wasn't close to being as good as Fournier this past year. That's objectively false.

I was comparing players not year they were having. They have vastly different roles. Was Ross better at his role last season ? Yes he was. Was Ross a better player ? No he wasnt a better player than Evan. Put Ross in Fournier role and he struggles mightly ( he cant even do most of the things Evan role requires). With your logic is Ross a better player than Westbrook or he just had a better season in much more limited role?

[Knightro]

I believe, but not 100% certain, that Marks is NOT counting Michael Carter-Williams in his current tax projections.

MCW’s 1.6M would give the Magic roughly 2.9M in wiggle room below the luxury tax.

More than enough room to sign a 15th player though.

So if someone offers Khem a measly $3 mil, we’re going to let him walk aren’t we?

It would have to be more than 3M because Birch's 1.8M qualifying offer is already factored in.

The Magic in theory could opt to not sign a 15th player and then would be able to sign Birch to a deal worth 4.7M in Year 1 (the 2.9M they're under the tax + his 1.8M qualifying offer amount) and still be under the tax.

If they sign a minimum salary player for 1.6M, they could sign Birch for 3.1M in Year 1 and avoid the tax.

[Blue_and_Whte]

:banghead:

https://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.fcgi?request=1&sum=0&player_id1_hint=Terrence+Ross&player_id1_select=Terrence+Ross&y1=2019&player_id1=rosste01&idx=players&player_id2_hint=Evan+Fournier&player_id2_select=Evan+Fournier&y2=2019&player_id2=fournev01&idx=players

Ross was more valuable in almost every stat (advanced, not counting just raw stats) last year besides AST%.. dunno how it's even a debate who was better last year. Evan may have more tools at his disposal as a player but he was not very good/average for most of the season and Ross was literally the reason we won a lot of games by his steadiness off of the bench.

That being said, Ross before last year was obviously a coin flip, and Evan should have that label now too. I don't think it's a guarantee that either will be better than the other next year. Have to wait and see.

I love Ross but he is not close to being better than Fournier even in Evan down year.

You're either a Ross-hater or Fournier-stan if you think Ross wasn't close to as good as Fournier this year.

Edit: and lol at the excuses made for Fournier's crap shooting year. As if Ross had 2016 Golden State spacing on our 2nd unit with MCW, Iwundu, Isaac, Birch.

I feel like there werent many excuses made for his off year other than.... he had an off year especially considering it wasn't consistent with his past seasons. Hopefully he bounces back if he's still here.

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[Knightro]

I believe, but not 100% certain, that Marks is NOT counting Michael Carter-Williams in his current tax projections.

MCW’s 1.6M would give the Magic roughly 2.9M in wiggle room below the luxury tax.

More than enough room to sign a 15th player though.

Isn't the vet minimum for a player with MCW's experience closer to 2m?

Yes. As a 7th year NBA player, Michael Carter-Williams' salary for next year will be $2,174,318.

BUT...

"Because the NBA doesn’t want teams to avoid signing veteran players in favor of cheaper, younger players, the league reimburses clubs who sign veterans with three or more years of experience to one-year, minimum salary contracts. Those deals will only count against the cap – and against a team’s bank balance – for $1,620,564, the minimum salary for a player with two years of experience."

So essentially the NBA will be picking up 553,754K of MCW's salary.

https://www.hoopsrumors.com/2019/06/nba-minimum-salaries-for-201920.html

[fendilim]

It seems i am a rare magic fan who likes all of our players. Remember you are comparing shooting specialist to secondary ball handler and primary perimeter defender. I absolutly love Ross and atmosphere he brings for us i am happy he resigned with us ... but
Ross never could handle a starting role. He couldnt do it with Toronto he couldnt do it with us. You remember 2 years ago when he was Fournier age ? He asked to be benched becouse he couldnt keep up with the starters. He is not Ginobili who is too good to not be a lead ball handler, he is Ross who never had the talent to start on a contender. If he thought he is a starter he would sign with another team, but the guy is mature and knows his limitations. He is one of the best 6 th man in the league and he got paid like one.

You can call him whatever you want to call him but you're the one who said he wasn't close to being as good as Fournier this past year. That's objectively false.

I was comparing players not year they were having. They have vastly different roles. Was Ross better at his role last season ? Yes he was. Was Ross a better player ? No he wasnt a better player than Evan. Put Ross in Fournier role and he struggles mightly ( he cant even do most of the things Evan role requires). With your logic is Ross a better player than Westbrook or he just had a better season in much more limited role?

I think Fournier's defense will not really favor him in numbers.

This is just like SVG saying that JJ was our best defender during the championship years.

Fournier is like that, he plays smart, in position at the right time, but still sucks defensively. The thing with him is he tries, and I think that's something coaches like Clifford and SVG, or other oldschool coaches appreciate. There's a reason why Fournier is always subbed out on crucial defensive situations. Because he isn't good on one-on-one coverage but he knows the defensive schemes well and is usually in position to TRY and defend shots. And I think that's the most you can ask for, from a guy who is athletically and physically limited. lol

[Great]

More defense and playmaking

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Watch on YouTube

[j-ragg]

It seems i am a rare magic fan who likes all of our players. Remember you are comparing shooting specialist to secondary ball handler and primary perimeter defender. I absolutly love Ross and atmosphere he brings for us i am happy he resigned with us ... but
Ross never could handle a starting role. He couldnt do it with Toronto he couldnt do it with us. You remember 2 years ago when he was Fournier age ? He asked to be benched becouse he couldnt keep up with the starters. He is not Ginobili who is too good to not be a lead ball handler, he is Ross who never had the talent to start on a contender. If he thought he is a starter he would sign with another team, but the guy is mature and knows his limitations. He is one of the best 6 th man in the league and he got paid like one.

You can call him whatever you want to call him but you're the one who said he wasn't close to being as good as Fournier this past year. That's objectively false.

I was comparing players not year they were having. They have vastly different roles. Was Ross better at his role last season ? Yes he was. Was Ross a better player ? No he wasnt a better player than Evan. Put Ross in Fournier role and he struggles mightly ( he cant even do most of the things Evan role requires). With your logic is Ross a better player than Westbrook or he just had a better season in much more limited role?

You weren't comparing the years they were having, but I quoted you saying how even in a down year Ross wasn't nearly as good, so that's weird. Anyway I'm obviously not gonna change your mind/vice versa. I think we have very different opinions on Fournier's contributions to this team.

[Nyce_1]

How the hell is this team so close to the tax? WTF

[MoMM]

If they sign a minimum salary player for 1.6M, they could sign Birch for 3.1M in Year 1 and avoid the tax.

What if it's an undrafted rookie? Frazier makes less than 1.6M (1.05M last season, 1.4M this one).

[Knightro]

If they sign a minimum salary player for 1.6M, they could sign Birch for 3.1M in Year 1 and avoid the tax.

What if it's an undrafted rookie? Frazier makes less than 1.6M (1.05M last season, 1.4M this one).

You answered your own question.

If they signed Jefferies or anyone else from the summer league who has no NBA experience, they’d come in cheaper than 1.6M and the Magic would have more wiggle room under the tax.

[pepe1991]

If it comes to low offer, i think Birch will consider to go back in Europe. He could land 3 years $8-11M there.

[MoMM]

If it comes to low offer, i think Birch will consider to go back in Europe. He could land 3 years $8-11M there.

If I was him, I'd try to sign with a team where he will be able to play at least 20mpg (even for the minimum) and then try to get a big contract next season when the FA class is garbage.

Gortat was a backup here and signed for 34/5 10 years ago, Birch can get something close to it easily if he get PT.

[cvMagic]

I don't believe Westbrook has very positive value around the league, one of the worst contracts in the NBA for a declining player who was less efficient than Jerain Grant last season, his game heavily relies on his athleticism and he'll be 31 soon. I think it would be a huge mistake to trade for him, let alone gut the roster like others have suggested.

so... the solution is to stay mired in mediocrity with no chance of winning a chip or obtaining a stud free agent and being too good to draft one? The rest of the league just keeps wheeling and dealing and passing the Magic by. These are the moments to make moves. It's rare for a guy like Westbrook to be available. They wouldn't have to gut the entire team to do it either.

Staying away from a declining player with a crippling contract doesn't mean I think we should stay in mediocrity. It's not rare for a guy like Westbrook to be available, every year a star wants out of their situation, Westbrook is not the solution for our problems.

Agree to disagree. He would instantly become the Magic's best player. And most of the stars who become available are doing so with one to two years left on their deals and thus can dictate where they want to go because no team wants to give up all of their assets for a rental. Those players, sadly, will never pick Orlando. We can talk about the Duncan, McGrady, G Hill year of free agency all you want, that was a looooooooong time ago and the NBA has changed immensely since then. This is one of the rare instances where a star has multi years left and does not have the same power to dictate his landing spot. Sure, there's a risk. The Magic can pass on this. But then what... they're the ones that went all in on Vuc and Ross. They're the ones who made the moves that indicate wanting to win NOW. If they don't do this...? That makes the gamble betting on Bamba and Isaac to become stars? I want Bamba to be one. Truly. But history isn't kind to players who get off to the rookie start he did. They rarely turn it completely around. Not saying it can't happen... but it's unlikely. Isaac and AG might just be fringe all-stars at their absolute peaks. Then what? Vuc gets older as does Ross. The Magic have no cap space. We just gladly accept being a 5/6 seed and maybe peaking at a 2nd round playoff exit? Meh. The Westbrook gamble would align with the Vuc and Ross contracts perfectly. The Magic would still be able to keep some great young assets as well. I'd rather "risk it for the biscuit" than banking on the highly unlikely scenario of all the youth becoming superstars.