Dat2U wrote:Here's my "how far away are we from being a legit contender" tracker.
The ??? represent what we don't have. We have alot of those. We lack 3 legit starters & 2/3 legit backups. I'm being nice and will give Ish Smith passable backup PG status. I don't trust any big after Bryant.
I would assume the goal is that Hachimura & Brown develop to the point where they can be quality starters. I don't see how this is not a multiyear rebuild.
G ??? ... I. Smith ... I. Thomas ... Ju. Robinson ... Wall
G Beal ... ??? ... McRae
F ??? ... T. Brown Jr ... Miles ... Je. Jones
F ??? ... Bertans ... Hachimura ... Schofield
C Bryant ... ??? ... ??? ... Wagner ... Mahinmi
Under any circumstance, it could only be seen as 1-year on the assumption that Wall comes back strong next year. That would make 3 legit starters. If, in addition, you assume that Brown becomes a "legit starter" in his 3d year, now you're at 4.
Meaning it's all about how quickly Hachimura develops. That is, "all about" in this fictional view. Then, continuing the fiction, since Mahinmi/Howard come off the payroll after this, freeing $21m, & since we will have a R1 & R2 rookie next year for a total of at most $5.5m, we will have room to add a "star" FA a year from now. Rui only has to be our 6th man.
Kaboom! Job done.
I speculate that this is the Ted Leonsis view of the matter -- a very "Ernie" way of looking at things -- rather than the Tommy Sheppard view of things. But... that's just speculation. For which my only evidence, very slight, is Sheppard saying "we are going to build this thing the right way, patiently."
From their work in the 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 & 2017 drafts the Washington Wizards netted a total of 2 players -- i.e. next to nothing. From their work in the 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017 & 2018 off seasons -- both trades & FA signings -- the Washington Wizards have 1 player, Thomas Bryant, & 2 boat anchors (Mahinmi & Howard). From their trades
within those same seasons, the Wizards have literally nothing. Zip.
Coming out of last season, we had 4 players who were worth anything at all -- Wall, Beal, Brown & Bryant. Wall is injured, seriously injured. Brown is 19, with 730 NBA minutes under his belt. Bryant was a tremendous piece of good luck/work. The 5th was Sato, but we let him go. We were also 4 or 5 picks shy of the usual future draft assets.
How much worse can anyone imagine a 32 win team could be? On any but the most absolutely pie-in-the-sky vision of Wall's recovery (i.e. as significantly better than he ever was), this team has many many non-competitive years in front of it.
Add to that an interim GM who will struggle to manage an owner who still doesn't know what it is that he doesn't know that he needs to know, an owner who could start by learning how to hire a GM & follow it up by learning how to get out the GM's way.
Anyway, "rebuild" to what? From the last 70% of the 2014-15 season until now the Washington Wizards record has been 192 wins vs. 193 losses. We had one stretch of I think @ 21-3 in that time, now almost 3 years ago btw. Except for that fabulous run, we are 171-190 over most of the last 5 seasons. Great, huh? Lets "rebuild" to be like that again?
Of course one should really include all those seasons, right? We've actually averaged a big 42 wins over the 5 last seasons - 1 game over .500. Wow.... Lets use this rebuild to get back to those great heights!