What is Gersson Rosas doing?

[LofJ]

Twolves will be a bottom 6 team next year...

After the Knicks I can't decide which teams will finish with the 2nd to 7th worst records out of the Cavs, Hornets, Suns, Grizzlies, Wizards, and Timberwolves. Those teams are the clear bottom 7 in my opinion.

[enaidealukal]

I know Rosas has some skeptics in Minnesota, but I see this coming together very nicely. With this news of going for a max slot next summer, I get what they're doing.

As I posted on the Minnesota subforum, the 2020-21 salary cap is projected at $118 million, last I saw. That would put the rookie extension max slot at $29,500,000. Which means the goal is to get our 2020 cap down from $99,540,316 to $88,500,000. That's actually pretty doable.

It won't take much to clear $11 million off the cap in a year. That actually is pretty reasonable, especially with some of the pieces we have. If we cannot trade him outright, stretching the final year of Dieng's contract actually makes up the entire difference of the money we need to clear for a max slot.

Then you look at some of the pieces we have. At the de(adline or next summer, I start looking at where I can take chances on upside. One example I've looked at is something like Covington for Tatum as the start of a deal. That trade actually even clears money next year before Tatum's likely extension kicks in, and we'd be talking about adding a 21-year old Tatum to 20-year old Culver and 23-year old Towns, plus whoever we want to bring in with the max slot either in FA or trade (does 23-year old Russell become an option again?).

The problem is twofold:

1. The free agent class next summer is crap. Like, absolute garbage. (see here: https://www.spotrac.com/nba/free-agents/2020/)

Freeing up cap space to sign e.g. old-man Kyle Lowry or broken-down Gordon Hayward is a questionable strategic move at best.

2. Even if next years free agent class were not utter trash, Minnesota has always had great difficulty attracting free agents anyways. Jeff Teague is probably their greatest free agent signing in Timberwolves franchise history. So, cap space=/= an ability to get anyone worth spending it on.

Now, I'm not quite as down on Rosas overall as the OP (especially losing D'Angelo Russell- what are you supposed to do when someone wants to play for the Warriors more than your team?), but when you're a mid-market, non-LA/NY franchise, you need to maximize what assets you have. And letting a cheap young talent get away for nothing is NOT maximizing your assets. If the Timberwolves had agreed to the deal Tyus was reportedly originally seeking- $25 million/4 years (so about $6 million per year)- the Grizzlies would likely have never made an offer and the Timberwolves would have a great backup/borderline starter on an absolute steal of a contract (which would remain easily movable, if future flexibility ended up being needed).

[walk with me]

Twolves will be a bottom 6 team next year...

After the Knicks I can't decide which teams will finish with the 2nd to 7th worst records out of the Cavs, Hornets, Suns, Grizzlies, Wizards, and Timberwolves. Those teams are the clear bottom 7 in my opinion.

I expect the suns to be better than the wolves. The wolves have nothing

[LofJ]

Twolves will be a bottom 6 team next year...

After the Knicks I can't decide which teams will finish with the 2nd to 7th worst records out of the Cavs, Hornets, Suns, Grizzlies, Wizards, and Timberwolves. Those teams are the clear bottom 7 in my opinion.

I expect the suns to be better than the wolves. The wolves have nothing

They have Towns, Covington, and a few promising guards in Okogie and Culver. So yeah, not nearly enough for a competitive team. I expect the Suns will finish ahead in the standings as well.

[enaidealukal]

After the Knicks I can't decide which teams will finish with the 2nd to 7th worst records out of the Cavs, Hornets, Suns, Grizzlies, Wizards, and Timberwolves. Those teams are the clear bottom 7 in my opinion.

I expect the suns to be better than the wolves. The wolves have nothing

They have Towns, Covington, and a few promising guards in Okogie and Culver. So yeah, not nearly enough for a competitive team. I expect the Suns will finish ahead in the standings as well.

Oh man, that's a good one. If you honestly believe that, I have some oceanfront property in northern Minnesota you'll be interested in as well. I have real fears about the state and direction of the franchise, but there is roughly a 0% chance the Timberwolves are worse than the Suns this year, barring catastrophic injury. Towns is better than the Suns 3 or 4 best players put together.

[enaidealukal]

The real takeaway, though, is just how thoroughly Thibs screwed the Timberwolves over, and how much of a mess Rosas has to clean up after. It goes far beyond the Jimmy Butler fiasco- the Wiggins max and the Gorgui extension completely robbed the Wolves of any financial flexibility moving forward. Worse, Thibs blew the last cap space the Wolves were going to have for the foreseeable future (since the Wiggins max and inevitable Towns max extension were about to begin) on Jeff Teague and Taj Gibson... the latter of whom rendered the newly-extended Gorgui Dieng completely redundant, and made that contract even worse than it was to begin with.

As bad as Thibs was as a coach, he was even more of a disaster as GM/POBO. Rosas has a herculean task, just to break even, nevermind to build a contender.

[AssistRubio]

You have no clue. Rosas is getting the Wolves in a position to be a player in FA next summer and the following summer. Look at the deals he signed, mostly short term. He let Tyus walk because the guy doesn't move the needle and would eat $9M in cap space. Also, he did NOT trade up for Garland. He was interested in Garland at #5 but they wanted #11 and Covington (who's a needle moving player on a friendly deal). That's what has been widely reported. He knew Saric was going to get a bigger cap eating deal next summer and he's another guy that doesn't move the needle. So trading Saric was a win.

Rosas is doing a great job!

Hockey town + worst NBA franchise (historically) + COLD! + blah city for young millionaire athletes + no history + "flyover" country, et al is not an easy sell. The best bet is to hope that Towns is one helluva good friend to somebody on the FA market. OR... to overpay for 2nd and 3rd tier guys.

This is a big myth...if anything you can call it as a football town. Vikings are by far the most popular team in Minnesota. There is a big gap between Vikings and rest. Wild has some good passionate fanbase but you will see lot more casual fans who are into NBA rather than NHL. Recent NBA finals had much bigger ratings than NHL in twin cities market.

1-Vikings
2/3- Wild/Twins. If the Twins won consistently they would easily be no.2
4- Wolves

In a state full of awful sports franchises the Wolves are easily the worst of the 4 and the least popular. They are truly one of the worst run franchises in all of sports. Maybe even the worst.

[Klomp]

I know Rosas has some skeptics in Minnesota, but I see this coming together very nicely. With this news of going for a max slot next summer, I get what they're doing.

As I posted on the Minnesota subforum, the 2020-21 salary cap is projected at $118 million, last I saw. That would put the rookie extension max slot at $29,500,000. Which means the goal is to get our 2020 cap down from $99,540,316 to $88,500,000. That's actually pretty doable.

It won't take much to clear $11 million off the cap in a year. That actually is pretty reasonable, especially with some of the pieces we have. If we cannot trade him outright, stretching the final year of Dieng's contract actually makes up the entire difference of the money we need to clear for a max slot.

Then you look at some of the pieces we have. At the de(adline or next summer, I start looking at where I can take chances on upside. One example I've looked at is something like Covington for Tatum as the start of a deal. That trade actually even clears money next year before Tatum's likely extension kicks in, and we'd be talking about adding a 21-year old Tatum to 20-year old Culver and 23-year old Towns, plus whoever we want to bring in with the max slot either in FA or trade (does 23-year old Russell become an option again?).

The problem is twofold:

1. The free agent class next summer is crap. Like, absolute garbage. (see here: https://www.spotrac.com/nba/free-agents/2020/)

Freeing up cap space to sign e.g. old-man Kyle Lowry or broken-down Gordon Hayward is a questionable strategic move at best.

2. Even if next years free agent class were not utter trash, Minnesota has always had great difficulty attracting free agents anyways. Jeff Teague is probably their greatest free agent signing in Timberwolves franchise history. So, cap space=/= an ability to get anyone worth spending it on.

Now, I'm not quite as down on Rosas overall as the OP (especially losing D'Angelo Russell- what are you supposed to do when someone wants to play for the Warriors more than your team?), but when you're a mid-market, non-LA/NY franchise, you need to maximize what assets you have. And letting a cheap young talent get away for nothing is NOT maximizing your assets. If the Timberwolves had agreed to the deal Tyus was reportedly originally seeking- $25 million/4 years (so about $6 million per year)- the Grizzlies would likely have never made an offer and the Timberwolves would have a great backup/borderline starter on an absolute steal of a contract (which would remain easily movable, if future flexibility ended up being needed).

Free agency is not the only way a team can use its cap space

[LofJ]

I expect the suns to be better than the wolves. The wolves have nothing

They have Towns, Covington, and a few promising guards in Okogie and Culver. So yeah, not nearly enough for a competitive team. I expect the Suns will finish ahead in the standings as well.

Oh man, that's a good one. If you honestly believe that, I have some oceanfront property in northern Minnesota you'll be interested in as well. I have real fears about the state and direction of the franchise, but there is roughly a 0% chance the Timberwolves are worse than the Suns this year, barring catastrophic injury. Towns is better than the Suns 3 or 4 best players put together.

Towns is the best player on either team, but you need more than two starter level players AND decent depth to win in the regular season. The Suns are currently closer to accomplishing that goal than the Wolves are.

[Klomp]

Hockey town + worst NBA franchise (historically) + COLD! + blah city for young millionaire athletes + no history + "flyover" country, et al is not an easy sell. The best bet is to hope that Towns is one helluva good friend to somebody on the FA market. OR... to overpay for 2nd and 3rd tier guys.

This is a big myth...if anything you can call it as a football town. Vikings are by far the most popular team in Minnesota. There is a big gap between Vikings and rest. Wild has some good passionate fanbase but you will see lot more casual fans who are into NBA rather than NHL. Recent NBA finals had much bigger ratings than NHL in twin cities market.

Again... it's all about perception.

Of course, football gets more eyeballs. It does virtually everywhere. But the Wolves aren't competing with the Vikings during the week in January - March. And the hockey vs. basketball debate is not even a debate in too many cities, considering how hockey is a niche sport, especially when counting tv screens while I just read that basketball has more youth participants than any other sport.

Even with a general feeling of malaise across town, the Excel Center still packs them in at a decent clip... at least compared to Target Center. Compared to other U.S. cities, you bet the Twin Cities are viewed as a hockey town(s)... despite the many, many hoops fans here.

Read on Twitter

You say there's a feeling of malaise around town for the Wild, but they've still made the playoffs 6 of the last 7 years while the Timberwolves have missed the playoffs 14 of the last 15 years. That's an entirely different level of malaise, and there was still only a difference of about 3,000 in attendance last season. Minnesota fans will come out to support a winner in basketball. Look at what the Lynx attendance has been the past 6 years, look what the Gopher men and women draw when they're good.

And just because hockey vs. basketball isn't a debate in other markets doesn't mean this is automatically a hockey town. Sure, hockey is more popular here than it is in other pro cities. But really, the biggest hockey interest I see in this state is at the high school level, and it lessens somewhat once you look at college and pro hockey.

But yes, this is one perception that Rosas will have to fight through in his quest to build a championship contender, just like how some people think we spend our summers hanging out in our igloos.

[AssistRubio]

This is a big myth...if anything you can call it as a football town. Vikings are by far the most popular team in Minnesota. There is a big gap between Vikings and rest. Wild has some good passionate fanbase but you will see lot more casual fans who are into NBA rather than NHL. Recent NBA finals had much bigger ratings than NHL in twin cities market.

Again... it's all about perception.

Of course, football gets more eyeballs. It does virtually everywhere. But the Wolves aren't competing with the Vikings during the week in January - March. And the hockey vs. basketball debate is not even a debate in too many cities, considering how hockey is a niche sport, especially when counting tv screens while I just read that basketball has more youth participants than any other sport.

Even with a general feeling of malaise across town, the Excel Center still packs them in at a decent clip... at least compared to Target Center. Compared to other U.S. cities, you bet the Twin Cities are viewed as a hockey town(s)... despite the many, many hoops fans here.

Read on Twitter

You say there's a feeling of malaise around town for the Wild, but they've still made the playoffs 6 of the last 7 years while the Timberwolves have missed the playoffs 14 of the last 15 years. That's an entirely different level of malaise, and there was still only a difference of about 3,000 in attendance last season. Minnesota fans will come out to support a winner in basketball. Look at what the Lynx attendance has been the past 6 years, look what the Gopher men and women draw when they're good.

And just because hockey vs. basketball isn't a debate in other markets doesn't mean this is automatically a hockey town. Sure, hockey is more popular here than it is in other pro cities. But really, the biggest hockey interest I see in this state is at the high school level, and it lessens somewhat once you look at college and pro hockey.

But yes, this is one perception that Rosas will have to fight through in his quest to build a championship contender, just like how some people think we spend our summers hanging out in our igloos.

If all 4 pro sports teams were good, the Wolves would still be 4th in popularity. Look at the Twins this year for example. They have been mostly terrible for a decade. They have had a good 1st half of the season and they will likely end up finishing in the top 15 of the league in attendance when the season is over.

The Wolves were a good team in 2017-2018 (especially relative to their standards) they were 2nd to last in attendance. It is going to take a LONG TIME for people to buy back in after decades of failure. Multiple seasons+ of consistent success.

[brutalitops]

Andrew Wiggins is such an elite defender he locks down the Front Office to where they can't make a move.

Actually chuckled and I forgot about the hole we are in. Elite shitpost. Well done

[enaidealukal]

Free agency is not the only way a team can use its cap space

Well no kidding. Unfortunately, those other ways aren't especially relevant here, given the Timberwolves situation: acquiring future draft picks to absorb bad contracts, for instance, does not help the Timberwolves build a competitive team in the present, to prevent KAT from pulling an Anthony Davis a couple years down the road (the teams primary objective, as Rosas has noted repeatedly, and as fans are painfully aware). So my point stands. Not sure what the point of this non-response response was, to be honest.

[enaidealukal]

Towns is the best player on either team, but you need more than two starter level players AND decent depth to win in the regular season. The Suns are currently closer to accomplishing that goal than the Wolves are.

No, they're not, and its not even particularly close- don't be ridiculous. The Timberwolves won 36 games with their 2nd best player missing basically the entire 2nd half of the season, and all 3 of their PGs missing extensive time (they were starting scrubs like Jarryd Bayless and Isiah Cannon, in the NBA, in 2019!). The Suns won 19 games. The Wolves best player, Towns, is better than the Suns 3 or 4 best players combined. The Wolves 2nd best player, Covington, would be the best player on the team if he played for the Suns.

This is an absolutely absurd thing to argue, there is a 0.0% chance the Suns win more games than the Timberwolves next year, barring catastrophic injury to Towns.

[e_l_f_o]

I expect the suns to be better than the wolves. The wolves have nothing

They have Towns, Covington, and a few promising guards in Okogie and Culver. So yeah, not nearly enough for a competitive team. I expect the Suns will finish ahead in the standings as well.

Oh man, that's a good one. If you honestly believe that, I have some oceanfront property in northern Minnesota you'll be interested in as well. I have real fears about the state and direction of the franchise, but there is roughly a 0% chance the Timberwolves are worse than the Suns this year, barring catastrophic injury. Towns is better than the Suns 3 or 4 best players put together.

Rubio - Teague
Booker - Culver
Oubre - Wiggins
Saric - Covington
DeAndre - Towns


I honestly dont see THAT difference..

[DCRYsing89]

I'll do you one better, what is Gersson Rosas?

Why is Gersson Rosas?

[enaidealukal]

They have Towns, Covington, and a few promising guards in Okogie and Culver. So yeah, not nearly enough for a competitive team. I expect the Suns will finish ahead in the standings as well.

Oh man, that's a good one. If you honestly believe that, I have some oceanfront property in northern Minnesota you'll be interested in as well. I have real fears about the state and direction of the franchise, but there is roughly a 0% chance the Timberwolves are worse than the Suns this year, barring catastrophic injury. Towns is better than the Suns 3 or 4 best players put together.

Rubio - Teague
Booker - Culver
Oubre - Wiggins
Saric - Covington
DeAndre - Towns


I honestly dont see THAT difference..

The Wolves won 36 games, as one of the teams with the most player minutes/wins/vorp lost due to injury.

The Suns won 19 games, as one of the teams with the fewest player minutes/wins lost due to injury.

Both teams made only marginal moves in the offseason. Its not rocket science, and its a ridiculous thing to be arguing.

[bulliedog8]

Wiggins and dieng for cp0
In 2020 offer Drummond 4/100

Cp0
Culver
Covington
Towns
Drummond

[Worm Guts]

Free agency is not the only way a team can use its cap space

Well no kidding. Unfortunately, those other ways aren't especially relevant here, given the Timberwolves situation: acquiring future draft picks to absorb bad contracts, for instance, does not help the Timberwolves build a competitive team in the present, to prevent KAT from pulling an Anthony Davis a couple years down the road (the teams primary objective, as Rosas has noted repeatedly, and as fans are painfully aware). So my point stands. Not sure what the point of this non-response response was, to be honest.

KAT has another 5 years on his contract. The Wolves don't have to competitive next year, or necessarily even the year after that. Build up your assets, clear cap space, make the right moves at the right time.

[enaidealukal]

Free agency is not the only way a team can use its cap space

Well no kidding. Unfortunately, those other ways aren't especially relevant here, given the Timberwolves situation: acquiring future draft picks to absorb bad contracts, for instance, does not help the Timberwolves build a competitive team in the present, to prevent KAT from pulling an Anthony Davis a couple years down the road (the teams primary objective, as Rosas has noted repeatedly, and as fans are painfully aware). So my point stands. Not sure what the point of this non-response response was, to be honest.

KAT has another 5 years on his contract. The Wolves don't have to competitive next year, or necessarily even the year after that. Build up your assets, clear cap space, make the right moves at the right time.

KAT has 5 years on his contract, but as we've seen, stars are increasingly willing to demand/ask for a trade before the final year of their contract. So make it more like 4 years to prove to Towns that they can build a winner. And rookies, even future All-Stars, and particularly point guards (arguably the Wolves biggest hole), typically take a few seasons to become significant positive contributors. So, suppose the Wolves clear significant cap space by next offseason (one year closer to a possible KAT trade demand), and obtain a couple future 1st for absorbing a bad contract or two. Those players likely won't help much until you're in the last year or two of KAT's contract. So time really isn't on their side, and waiting for future draft picks to develop to build a competitive team is incredibly risky.

This is why I said that the most important takeaway is how thoroughly Thibs screwed the Wolves over- the time for patiently accumulating assets and developing young players were those years that Thibs mortgaged the future to bring in Butler, Gibson, Teague, etc. He basically cashed in all the chips for a single year as an 8-seed. Leaving Rosas in an incredibly tough spot, precisely because he doesn't have the benefit of being patient, but also has very few assets to build a competitive team in the short-term and inherited a downright brutal cap situation with multiple toxic contracts.