Ayton 2019-2020 PPG Estimate

[jcsunsfan]

KAT's ppg dropped by 4 points when Rubio left Minny.

So I am adding 4 for Rubio. I probably should add more because we did not have a pg at all.

[NTB]

KAT's ppg dropped by 4 points when Rubio left Minny.

So I am adding 4 for Rubio. I probably should add more because we did not have a pg at all.

And Ayton was just a rookie.

[NapoleonII]

24.5, book it.

Booker will average 27+

[SunsLyf3]

He was walking around clueless and with no plays being ran for him yet was able to put up 16 ppg. Offense is supposedly going to be ran through him now(or at least will be featured a lot more), has an actual PG that can get him the ball and should be adding the 3pt shot he was working on at the end of last season to his repertoire. . . 24-25 ppg is reasonable expectation IMO.

[sunskerr]

I would be disappointed if he wasn’t averaging 20 ppg next year. The team is built with him (and Booker) in mind. Want to see more blocks from him though.

[denial]

rubio + ayton p n r a la nash + stat.
stop pop or roll and layup.
24+

[Qwigglez]

One thing about Ayton though, he has amazing foot work. He reminds me of LMA and Boris Diaw. One problem though, he doesn't get enough fouls because he keeps going to these baby hooks or fadeaway like jumpers. He's making them though so it's not a problem. I'd like to see him instead just dunk over people like Amare. You look at players like KAT who is shooting 6 FT's a game, or even Embiid who is shooting 10 FT's a game this past season. Cousins used to shoot between 8-10 FT's a game, and Amare in his prime was shooting about 7 FT's a game. Ayton needs to dominate the paint and gather those fouls, that'll take his game to the next level offensively.

[Saberestar]

rubio + ayton p n r a la nash + stat.
stop pop or roll and layup.
24+

The difference is that Nash could shot off the dribble, Rubio needs so much time and space. It is not the same threat.

Ayton is not as faster and agressive as Amare was, that is another difference. But he has a better touch than Amare at the same age.

I think that Rubio/Ayton can be (hopefully) similar to Rondo/Garnett on offense on the Celtics.

[denial]

rubio + ayton p n r a la nash + stat.
stop pop or roll and layup.
24+

The difference is that Nash could shot off the dribble, Rubio needs so much time and space. It is not the same threat.

No disagreement. I sorta figured someone would say this. I still think its a threat though. Ayton can shoot very well from short-mid and can obv finish at the basket. They cant just let rubio go to the hoop unchecked. Clearly Nash's shot was a big part of that so ultimately you're right that it isnt the same threat. But I dont think they can just let rubio shoot unguarded, and if they do, I think we live with that and his % goes way up. I didnt watch much of Boston except for in the playoffs. I seem to remember Garnett setting a lot of high screens but I dont remember who was handling the ball; presumably it was Rondo. I'll go catch a highlight video

[Biff]

I'm hoping for around 21p/12r/2.5a/1.3b/1s in 33ish minutes. I wouldn't be surprised if he really broke out and averaged like 24 a game though. Offense I'm not too worried about with him. Hopefully he continues to improve on d.

[denial]

rubio + ayton p n r a la nash + stat.
stop pop or roll and layup.
24+

The difference is that Nash could shot off the dribble, Rubio needs so much time and space. It is not the same threat.

No disagreement. I sorta figured someone would say this. I still think its a threat though. Ayton can shoot very well from short-mid and can obv finish at the basket. They cant just let rubio go to the hoop unchecked. Clearly Nash's shot was a big part of that so ultimately you're right that it isnt the same threat. But I dont think they can just let rubio shoot unguarded, and if they do, I think we live with that and his % goes way up. I didnt watch much of Boston except for in the playoffs. I seem to remember Garnett setting a lot of high screens but I dont remember who was handling the ball; presumably it was Rondo. I'll go catch a highlight video

Pick and pop:
They have to collapse on Rondo or its a layup. Defense messes up the switch and KG is unguarded. Even if defense switches and rotates it would be a mismatch.

Watch on YouTube

Watch on YouTube

Here the defense sticks to rondo and he is able to pass out to picker (boogie)

Watch on YouTube

Pick and roll:

Watch on YouTube

Here the picker (not KG) rolls/dives and Rondo finds him:

Watch on YouTube

They leave rondo open:

Watch on YouTube

Ayton can complete any of the pick-setter finishes above. And Rondo usually didn't need to get off his shot. They don't leave him unchecked because he'll just lay it in.

I couldn't find it on youtube but on twitter I found a few instances where The defense would collapse on the 2-man pnr leaving three point shooters open, and Rondo found them wide open. The Suns can do all of the above with Rubio/Ayton (surrounded by shooters).

[MathiasPW]

The difference is that Nash could shot off the dribble, Rubio needs so much time and space. It is not the same threat.

No disagreement. I sorta figured someone would say this. I still think its a threat though. Ayton can shoot very well from short-mid and can obv finish at the basket. They cant just let rubio go to the hoop unchecked. Clearly Nash's shot was a big part of that so ultimately you're right that it isnt the same threat. But I dont think they can just let rubio shoot unguarded, and if they do, I think we live with that and his % goes way up. I didnt watch much of Boston except for in the playoffs. I seem to remember Garnett setting a lot of high screens but I dont remember who was handling the ball; presumably it was Rondo. I'll go catch a highlight video

Pick and pop:
They have to collapse on Rondo or its a layup. Defense messes up the switch and KG is unguarded. Even if defense switches and rotates it would be a mismatch.

Watch on YouTube

Watch on YouTube

Here the defense sticks to rondo and he is able to pass out to picker (boogie)

Watch on YouTube

Pick and roll:

Watch on YouTube

Here the picker (not KG) rolls/dives and Rondo finds him:

Watch on YouTube

They leave rondo open:

Watch on YouTube

Ayton can complete any of the pick-setter finishes above. And Rondo usually didn't need to get off his shot. They don't leave him unchecked because he'll just lay it in.

I couldn't find it on youtube but on twitter I found a few instances where The defense would collapse on the 2-man pnr leaving three point shooters open, and Rondo found them wide open. The Suns can do all of the above with Rubio/Ayton (surrounded by shooters).

This last clip is exactly what defenses should and will do and it's a shot that Rubio is terrible at.

Most likely we will run high screens so it's at least a 3 point shot

When his defender doubles on Ayton in the paint, Rubio can try to find a way to attack another defender (say, whoever's guarding Booker) and set a screen so Book can get separation for an open 3.

GSW runs that kind of play a lot for Curry or Klay when Draymond is handling the ball at the top of the key.

[denial]

No disagreement. I sorta figured someone would say this. I still think its a threat though. Ayton can shoot very well from short-mid and can obv finish at the basket. They cant just let rubio go to the hoop unchecked. Clearly Nash's shot was a big part of that so ultimately you're right that it isnt the same threat. But I dont think they can just let rubio shoot unguarded, and if they do, I think we live with that and his % goes way up. I didnt watch much of Boston except for in the playoffs. I seem to remember Garnett setting a lot of high screens but I dont remember who was handling the ball; presumably it was Rondo. I'll go catch a highlight video

Pick and pop:
They have to collapse on Rondo or its a layup. Defense messes up the switch and KG is unguarded. Even if defense switches and rotates it would be a mismatch.

Watch on YouTube

Watch on YouTube

Here the defense sticks to rondo and he is able to pass out to picker (boogie)

Watch on YouTube

Pick and roll:

Watch on YouTube

Here the picker (not KG) rolls/dives and Rondo finds him:

Watch on YouTube

They leave rondo open:

Watch on YouTube

Ayton can complete any of the pick-setter finishes above. And Rondo usually didn't need to get off his shot. They don't leave him unchecked because he'll just lay it in.

I couldn't find it on youtube but on twitter I found a few instances where The defense would collapse on the 2-man pnr leaving three point shooters open, and Rondo found them wide open. The Suns can do all of the above with Rubio/Ayton (surrounded by shooters).

This last clip is exactly what defenses should and will do and it's a shot that Rubio is terrible at.

Most likely we will run high screens so it's at least a 3 point shot

When his defender doubles on Ayton in the paint, Rubio can try to find a way to attack another defender (say, whoever's guarding Booker) and set a screen so Book can get separation for an open 3.

GSW runs that kind of play a lot for Curry or Klay when Draymond is handling the ball at the top of the key.

People have said his % is really low off the dribble. But much like rondo who is an awful shooter, I have to assume that if you leave him wide open from 15 feet that he can hit half of them. I mean it just seems crazy. Wide open, I probably hit 1/2 off the dribble and I am an epically bad shooter and just non athlete in general. I was once shooting at a court across the street from Toyota center in Houston and some kid came up to me and said “you don’t play much do you?” I was like “what do you mean?” And he was like “you just don’t look right!”
That’s how bad I am.
And I could hit wide open from 15 more often than not. 18 feet is probably a bit out of my range but that’s just due to being too weak to keep my form proper at that range.

(To be fair, I proceeded to drain a jumper on the kids face on the next play. Might have even been a 3)

So they can sag a little I guess which makes it a little easier to defend the pnr, but they can’t just leave him wide.
I’m totally talking out of my butt having never watched Rubio consistently, but I just always assume nba guards can all shoot when left open. But I might be naive. I’ve always been shocked at the best players in the world who (for example) can’t shoot free throws.

I’m not really making a point here. Just rambling on as we wait out the off season...

[MathiasPW]

Pick and pop:
They have to collapse on Rondo or its a layup. Defense messes up the switch and KG is unguarded. Even if defense switches and rotates it would be a mismatch.

Watch on YouTube

Watch on YouTube

Here the defense sticks to rondo and he is able to pass out to picker (boogie)

Watch on YouTube

Pick and roll:

Watch on YouTube

Here the picker (not KG) rolls/dives and Rondo finds him:

Watch on YouTube

They leave rondo open:

Watch on YouTube

Ayton can complete any of the pick-setter finishes above. And Rondo usually didn't need to get off his shot. They don't leave him unchecked because he'll just lay it in.

I couldn't find it on youtube but on twitter I found a few instances where The defense would collapse on the 2-man pnr leaving three point shooters open, and Rondo found them wide open. The Suns can do all of the above with Rubio/Ayton (surrounded by shooters).

This last clip is exactly what defenses should and will do and it's a shot that Rubio is terrible at.

Most likely we will run high screens so it's at least a 3 point shot

When his defender doubles on Ayton in the paint, Rubio can try to find a way to attack another defender (say, whoever's guarding Booker) and set a screen so Book can get separation for an open 3.

GSW runs that kind of play a lot for Curry or Klay when Draymond is handling the ball at the top of the key.

People have said his % is really low off the dribble. But much like rondo who is an awful shooter, I have to assume that if you leave him wide open from 15 feet that he can hit half of them. I mean it just seems crazy. Wide open, I probably hit 1/2 off the dribble and I am an epically bad shooter and just non athlete in general. I was once shooting at a court across the street from Toyota center in Houston and some kid came up to me and said “you don’t play much do you?” I was like “what do you mean?” And he was like “you just don’t look right!”
That’s how bad I am.
And I could hit wide open from 15 more often than not. 18 feet is probably a bit out of my range but that’s just due to being too weak to keep my form proper at that range.

(To be fair, I proceeded to drain a jumper on the kids face on the next play. Might have even been a 3)

So they can sag a little I guess which makes it a little easier to defend the pnr, but they can’t just leave him wide.
I’m totally talking out of my butt having never watched Rubio consistently, but I just always assume nba guards can all shoot when left open. But I might be naive. I’ve always been shocked at the best players in the world who (for example) can’t shoot free throws.

I’m not really making a point here. Just rambling on as we wait out the off season...

Funny post. And you'd beat Rubio in that pickup game. His 2pt % on jumpers when left open is 45.8%.

[Mystical Apples]

KAT's ppg dropped by 4 points when Rubio left Minny.

So I am adding 4 for Rubio. I probably should add more because we did not have a pg at all.

Not sure I’d arrive at same conclusion. Points are a function of usage, efficiency, and minutes. Rubio’s low usage at PG was replaced by Rose and Teague. Jimmy Butler was added that season which resulted in KAT dropping from 2nd to 5th in usage % and Wiggins’ from 1st to 4th (a good thing!)

Takeaway here is Rubio isn’t replacing a high usage point guard. He’s being added to Booker, relatively high usage half court PF”s, and better overall passing that should lead to balanced usage. The C position also goes 3 deep and I kinda doubt Ayton will be the universally best option regardless of opponent.

Second half opponent defensive intensity should ramp up too, another good thing because that means PHX is competitive, albeit tougher sledding offensively than last year.

Taking a guess I’d say Bookers usage will drop a bit with some going to Ayton. If Booker remains over 32% usage and Ayton goes to 25% then something has gone terribly sideways for the Phoenix Suns.

[Mystical Apples]

Just to add 25%+ usage for 32+ minutes a game is a massive and arguably counter productive workload for a 21-year-old center facing defenses trying to stop him (or most centers for that matter).

One of the primary objectives has to be balancing Ayton’s energy between offense and defense. In most cases, there are significant diminishing returns for low-post offensive usage.

Phoenix can reasonably replicate Ayton’s efficiency with a balanced attack. Phoenix cannot replicate his physical tools on the defensive end if he’s tired from consuming too many touches 90 feet from the defensive basket.