The Ben Simmons Megathread - Part III

Black Mage · Post #701 » by **Black Mage** » Fri Jul 12, 2019 7:55 pm

https://www.nbcsports.com/philadelphia/76ers/tobias-harris-gives-ben-simmons-jump-shot-update-every-sixers-fan-wants-hear

Arsenal · Post #702 » by **Arsenal** » Fri Jul 12, 2019 8:16 pm

If Ben even comes back w/a jumpshot as bad as Giannis or Westbrook, that's still huge for his overall game and for the team.

Just the willingness to take them when wide open is all we need.

ConstableChaos · Post #703 » by **ConstableChaos** » Fri Jul 12, 2019 10:35 pm

smittybanton wrote:Ben Simmons Will Shoot 36% from 3pt by Age 25. I Have Time to Wait….

Because of his unique court vision and ballhandling as well as defense on one hand, coupled with his size and strength and speed and explosion on the other, Ben Simmons is a combination of Rajon Rondo and Blake Griffin, both of whom came into the league as horrible shooters and both of whom shot 36% from 3pt last year, on a healthy 3.1 and a whopping 7.1 attempts per game, respectively.

Rajon Rondo did not start hitting 3pointers at a normal clip until he turned 28 years old, hitting 35%. His career high is .376. But his first 8 years in the league, he shot plenty of three pointers and mid-range shots when he should not have, put his ego aside and passed the ball to others like Ben does.

Rondo shot .207 from 3pt as a rookie, and for years thereafter (.207, .263, .313, .213, .233, .238, .240, .289, .314, .250). Analytics suggest his teams would’ve scored more points had he not shot any during that time period. Rondo was neither a good mid-range shooter when he entered the league, hitting only .356 from 10-16ft and .279 from 16-24ft his rookie year. By comparison, Ben Simmons hit .316 from 10-16ft and .393 from 16-24ft his rookie year. So, unless the 24 second clock is expiring, both Ben Simmons and Rajon Rondo should attack the rim or pass to someone else instead of shooting a midrange shot. In fact, hardly anyone in the league is shooting mid-range shots anymore. So let’s stop asking and begging and pleading for Ben to shoot them.

Let’s also note that Rajon Rondo has become a decent 3pt shooter without being a good free throw shooter. Although Rondo’s .647 FT% as a rookie is better than Ben’s 56% as well as his 60% mark in his second year, Rondo never shot that “well” again in his career. He hit .638 last year, and bottomed out at .333 some years ago. Ben Simmons has not regressed. He improved from 56% to 60% from the free throw line. And he improved ever so slightly on floaters from 3-10ft, inching up from .417 to .422.

I believe Ben Simmons is very similar to Rajon Rondo as a shooter. So, I believe he will also become a good three point shooter, but in less time than it took Rondo. However, because I believe it will take Ben at least five years, I don’t expect him to shoot threes or midrange shots next year like a lot of fans are demanding. The Sixers would be lucky enough if Ben becomes as good a shooter as Blake Griffin, 36% on 7.1 attempts/gm. But even then, we should not expect to see it this season coming up.

After sitting out his rookie year just like Ben Simmons, Blake Griffin similarly had absolutely no shooting touch. Regressing from shooting .292 from 3pt his rookie year, Blake bricked 3pts for the next three years at an astoundingly bad rates, .125, .179, .273. Keep your gun in the holster, for the sake of the children! As rookies, Ben Simmons exhibited a better mid range jumper (.316, .393) than Blake (.298, .335). And Blake Griffin wasa still not a good mid range shooter even last year (.208, .333), so don’t do it.
Blake and Ben as rookies were in the same vicinity when it came to floaters (.432, Blake; .417, Ben). They were similarly bad free throw shooters their first two years: Blake shooting .642 as a rookie, and then dipping to .521 as a sophomore. Ben hit 56%, and then 60%. All together, that’s about 58% for both of them. So I don’t think it’s out of the question for Ben to improve his free throw and 3pt shooting at around the same rate as Blake Griffin. Griffin’s third year saw him make free throws at 66%, then 71.5%, 72.8%, 72.7%, finally breaking the 75% barrier his 7th year in the league (76%). His fifth year in the league, Blake broke through and shot 40% from the bean, followed by a more modest but still decent .333, .335, and .345 the following years. Last year, .362.

Therefore, if Ben’s shooting trajectory matches Blake Griffin’s, then we’re talking a 33+% 3pt shooter by year five. In the meantime, Ben Simmons must improve his ability to attack the rim off the dribble in half court. He must develop a much stronger right hand dribble. Before he switches to shooting with his right hand, like some fans want him to, I’d like him to dribble a lot better with it. Other teams have sniffed out his left hand dominance and have effectively taken him out of the playoffs the last two years because of it. Last summer he said he worked on his counter moves, and he must continue to do so. With the floor spread out by Joel and Tobi and Josh and Al Horford, Ben must also learn to dribble his man into the post and abuse him down low when the opposing defense is to constantly back off of him.

Ben, keep on working on your perimeter jimmy like you have been. But do not capitulate and take threes or mid-range jumpers until your performances in scrimmages and whatnot warrants it. Whether we have to wait until year five like with Blake Griffin or year eight like with Rajon Rondo, I have time to wait. Especially since the worse shooter of the two, Rondo, earned a championship ring off his defense while he was still a terrible shooter, because he had awesome teammates around him like Ben does this year and at least the next two thereafter.

BG shot less than 30 3's in each of his first 3 seasons. Assuming BS actually shot the 3 ball he likely would've put up similar shooting%. It wasn't until Griffins 7th season he shot more than one 3 a game and he put them in at 34%.

I have hope for Simmons still!

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/g/griffbl01.html

Lou_23 · Post #704 » by **Lou_23** » Sat Jul 13, 2019 9:26 pm

Read on Twitter

Post #705 » by **Sixerscan** » Sat Jul 13, 2019 9:26 pm

Read on Twitter

Our Australian friends may not like this but probably for the best for us next year. He can play in the Olympics.

AI_Efficiency · Post #706 » by **AI_Efficiency** » Sat Jul 13, 2019 9:56 pm

Arsenal wrote:If Ben even comes back w/a jumpshot as bad as Giannis or Westbrook, that's still huge for his overall game and for the team.

Just the willingness to take them when wide open is all we need.

I think it would be huge for his development, and thus I would encourage him to take them even if he shoots them at Giannis / Westbrook percentages. That said, it only really helps the team if he can make them at a high enough percentage for the defense to worry about it / provide more points per possession than the next alternative shot. Defenses may still be more than happy to let Simmons shoot open threes if he can’t make them at a high enough rate. People seem to always say, well just shoot them to keep the defense honest, but that only works if the defense actually worries about you making them. Teams love to see Westbrook shoot threes for example and will always go under his screens, because they know him usually pulling up is an inefficient shot.

XtremeDunkz · Post #707 » by **XtremeDunkz** » Sat Jul 13, 2019 10:15 pm

Sixerscan wrote:

Read on Twitter

Our Australian friends may not like this but probably for the best for us next year. He can play in the Olympics.

I like this a lot. Tells me the people around him are giving him good advice.

PhilasFinest · Post #708 » by **PhilasFinest** » Sat Jul 13, 2019 10:18 pm

XtremeDunkz wrote:
Sixerscan wrote:

Read on Twitter

Our Australian friends may not like this but probably for the best for us next year. He can play in the Olympics.

I like this a lot. Tells me the people around him are giving him good advice.

Im thinking the extension may have a bit to do with it.

Also, maybe....just maybe....he is making progress with his Jumpshot and doesn't want to potentially stunt it by going and playing competitively, which could force him to resort to whatever comes easiest/best.

Im certainly a fan of this move. He is crucial for a deep run, with or without a new jumper.

Post #709 » by **Sixerscan** » Sat Jul 13, 2019 11:22 pm

PhilasFinest wrote:
XtremeDunkz wrote:
Sixerscan wrote:

Read on Twitter

Our Australian friends may not like this but probably for the best for us next year. He can play in the Olympics.

I like this a lot. Tells me the people around him are giving him good advice.

Im thinking the extension may have a bit to do with it.

Also, maybe....just maybe....he is making progress with his Jumpshot and doesn't want to potentially stunt it by going and playing competitively, which could force him to resort to whatever comes easiest/best.

Im certainly a fan of this move. He is crucial for a deep run, with or without a new jumper.

Possibly, always seemed like a bit of a stretch that he would have this all figured out in time for the world cup.

At the very least it means he'll just have more time to train for the season.

Guess I'm just rooting for Croatia now.

Ericb5 · Post #710 » by **Ericb5** » Sat Jul 13, 2019 11:40 pm

I still think that him shooting 3’s in any real way is still several years away.

This past year he went from 56% to 60% with his free throws. If he can make a similar improvement this year he would be at 64%. That would already be good enough to make deliberate fouling of him not productive.

He really only needs to get to about 70% eventually for it to no longer be a weakness at all. By the age of 25 he should be shooting it at that rate.

With the jumper he is basically starting from zero. As I have said so many times, he has several obvious flaws in his mechanics and they can’t all be fixed in a single off season imo.

If he could just fix his problems from the waist down this year where he is always squared up, and jumping straight up and down with out flailing his legs out, and then commits himself to deliberately taking open jump shots in the 10-15 foot range then he will be a much better player right away.

He needs repetition, coaching, and patience, which will lead to confidence. My expectations on his jumper this year are very modest. Just improved balance, and increased attempts is what I’m realistically looking for.

Then in each of the following few off-seasons he would hopefully make similar modest gains each summer and eventually he won’t have it as a glaring weakness. I don’t expect his jumper to ever be a strength.

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nycphils · Post #711 » by **nycphils** » Sat Jul 13, 2019 11:55 pm

Threes would be great, even if he could shoot between 25-30% (as bad as that is) - however, he really just needs to be able to hit from 15-18 feet...if he can get out from the dunkers spot and force defenders to stay near him or punish them with mid range jumpers when they double Joel or Horford or whomever, the whole offense would open up. Threes aren’t necessary.

TeZag · Post #712 » by **TeZag** » Sat Jul 13, 2019 11:55 pm

XtremeDunkz wrote:
Sixerscan wrote:

Read on Twitter

Our Australian friends may not like this but probably for the best for us next year. He can play in the Olympics.

I like this a lot. Tells me the people around him are giving him good advice.

Precisely very good news!

the_process · Post #713 » by **the_process** » Sun Jul 14, 2019 12:07 am

So his people are giving him good advice. “Focus on your shooting, don’t play games and risk getting hurt before you sign your extension”. Very good sign.

Now if the Sixers asked him to do those things and he listened... that would be very promising indeed going forward.

Simmons25 · Post #714 » by **Simmons25** » Sun Jul 14, 2019 1:19 am

Sixerscan wrote:

Read on Twitter

Our Australian friends may not like this but probably for the best for us next year. He can play in the Olympics.

Nope. On the contrary... I was desperate for Simmons to not play for Australia this off-season and stay behind and work on his jumper... called him out on it. I thought it was more of a publicity exercise for his brand in China anyway than a burning desire to play for Australia in a World Cup. This is the best news for me of the off-season.

Black Mage · Post #715 » by **Black Mage** » Sun Jul 14, 2019 1:42 am

He needs to just see the regular season as an extended exhibition period to just practice taking 3's. Taking 2-3 a game is fine and isn't going to put winning a game at risk.

Simmons25 · Post #716 » by **Simmons25** » Sun Jul 14, 2019 2:15 am

I'd he happy with him just focussing on taking a jumper at the elbow without it being a Kobe turnaround or fadeaway. Just a normal looking balanced jumper would be fantastic.

eagereyez · Post #717 » by **eagereyez** » Sun Jul 14, 2019 3:06 am

I don't think Simmons will ever shoot at a league average level. He is far and away the worst shooting perimeter player in the NBA. A 6'10" Shaq who plays PG. He is what he is, all we can do is hope that the rest of the team is good enough to cover his flaws.

kio80 · Post #718 » by **kio80** » Sun Jul 14, 2019 3:17 am

I am extremely happy with this news, he does not need to join the boomers this year.
He needs to focus, focus and focus on his free throws.

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phiphan · Post #719 » by **phiphan** » Sun Jul 14, 2019 3:17 am

Read on Twitter

?s=21

Still makes me laugh

eyeatoma · Post #720 » by **eyeatoma** » Sun Jul 14, 2019 3:18 am

Like others have said, this is the best news of the summer. Now I just want to know more about Jo working on his conditioning (recent pics on instagram, show thats six pack is back), post play and that 3 pointer. Really would like to see him work with Hakeem or Kareem.

Back to BS, I disagree, I don't think he needs to be shooting 3's at volume, but getting about 70-100 for the season would be ideal. That would basically mean he's taking a three when guys are leaving him open. That's all we need. Once he gains confidence in a few years, he can start taking pull ups.