Official Offseason thread Vol 3: Bck2BACK

[Kobewade11]

Nobody is getting two picks for Paul’s contract.

[RexBoyWonder]

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we need those picks to get Westbrook

[RexBoyWonder]

Winslow will likely attempt the 2nd or 3rd most shots on the team so something like 14 FGA a game should allow him to average 16+ PPG.

Heat took 88 shots per game which is an increase from the year before at 86. What do you think will be the shot distribution?

Just looking at the numbers and thinking out loud. I will assume Butler will get between 15 and 16. I am going to assume 16, but he has only taken 16 and above once in his career. 14 shots per will definitely be number 2. Goran and Waiters took 11 and 10, but that was only because they were on minute restrictions coming back from injury. If Winslow only scores 16 points off of 14 shots, I dont know if he will continue getting the second most attempts, either Waiters or Goran will take over the scoring load.

I did the math soon after we go Butler.

Butler-16
Winslow-14
Waiters-12
Dragic-10
Adebayo-9
Olynyk-8
Jones Jr.-8
Herro-6
Leonard-5
an
Also, I think we're at least a top 15 in offense based off the way shots are distributed here.

dion can go kick rocks, id give half his shots to Herro and Bam. Dragic needs to take a step back too

[Kobewade11]

[ThunderBolt]

Can't lie, I'd take 1 pick and Paul as long as it didn't include Winslow/Waiters

I think that’s what we’re hoping for, 1 pick and whatever you guys want to dump for salary matching purposes.

[Biscayne Beast]

I wonder what team can just afford to just straight up waive Chris Paul lol

[Feel_the_Heat15]

Heat took 88 shots per game which is an increase from the year before at 86. What do you think will be the shot distribution?

Just looking at the numbers and thinking out loud. I will assume Butler will get between 15 and 16. I am going to assume 16, but he has only taken 16 and above once in his career. 14 shots per will definitely be number 2. Goran and Waiters took 11 and 10, but that was only because they were on minute restrictions coming back from injury. If Winslow only scores 16 points off of 14 shots, I dont know if he will continue getting the second most attempts, either Waiters or Goran will take over the scoring load.

I did the math soon after we go Butler.

Butler-16
Winslow-14
Waiters-12
Dragic-10
Adebayo-9
Olynyk-8
Jones Jr.-8
Herro-6
Leonard-5
an
Also, I think we're at least a top 15 in offense based off the way shots are distributed here.

dion can go kick rocks, id give half his shots to Herro and Bam. Dragic needs to take a step back too

Dion is a good shooter.

[El Alonzo scowl]

So you might be able to trade him away with one draft pick, but the Thunder should include two. Hmm.

It'll cost less as he'll have less money owed and having that other pick back means flexibility for other non-CP trades. Keep pondering ballboy.

You'd also get the front end of production you'd have to assume would be declining.

If he's a productive player, you're probably not trading him (because he's a productive player) except as an expiring contract. If he's not a productive player, you're probably not trading him (because no one will take the contract) except as an expiring contract.

Seems like any picks would have more to do with adding them to Justice/Bam/Herro for some other player.

The 2023 first rounder is far more valuable for us than for you guys because due to its protections, we can't trade anymore firsts until 2028. For you guys it's just one of a kajillion firsts you've acquired but for us it means not being handcuffed in future trades for a decade. CP's production is irrelevant because we're not winning a championship with him. Your aim is to save money and rebuild. Our aim is to win a championship. If he couldn't win with a better player in Harden, it's not happening with Jimmy. Let's say we get him. We have a couple years of three or four seed at best regular seasons and second round losses to Philly and Milwaukee. It's 2021 and need one of the big names in free agency to reach the next level of contention. We're going to have to trade Paul to clear cap room so we'll need our first rounders to be available again. That's assuming none of the 2021 stars demands a trade before 2021, which we all know won't happen. Someone will ask out. So we gotta be ready for that contingency. We also need insurance for Jimmy in case the situation goes sideways and we gotta trade him. Or there's a better player available and we trade him cold-bloodedly for the upgrade. Knowing how Riley thinks he'd probably want to ditch 2021 first rounder to have the cap room anyway, rather that money go to a vet than a rookie.

[DayofMourning]

Can't lie, I'd take 1 pick and Paul as long as it didn't include Winslow/Waiters

I think that’s what we’re hoping for, 1 pick and whatever you guys want to dump for salary matching purposes.

Id take that tbh. CP will make this team pretty good. Better than WB would have IMO. He might be older but hes a winner.

If we could get both our picks back thatd be great. Those picks arent as good as they used to be anyway. Maybe thats the hold up.

[HeatingUp3]

I don't belive we have interest in CP at all. I can see Riley listening only if there are few picks involved.. And i don't think OKC gonna give few picks up.

[Feel_the_Heat15]

2 picks minimum for us to take Chris Paul. We need cap space to retain some players. DJJ was ranked 3rd in DRAYMOND so he's a player we need to keep for awhile.

[jake_swivel]

It'll cost less as he'll have less money owed and having that other pick back means flexibility for other non-CP trades. Keep pondering ballboy.

You'd also get the front end of production you'd have to assume would be declining.

If he's a productive player, you're probably not trading him (because he's a productive player) except as an expiring contract. If he's not a productive player, you're probably not trading him (because no one will take the contract) except as an expiring contract.

Seems like any picks would have more to do with adding them to Justice/Bam/Herro for some other player.

The 2023 first rounder is far more valuable for us than for you guys because due to its protections, we can't trade anymore firsts until 2028. For you guys it's just one of a kajillion firsts you've acquired but for us it means not being handcuffed in future trades for a decade. CP's production is irrelevant because we're not winning a championship with him. Your aim is to save money and rebuild. Our aim is to win a championship. If he couldn't win with a better player in Harden, it's not happening with Jimmy. Let's say we get him. We have a couple years of three or four seed at best regular seasons and second round losses to Philly and Milwaukee. It's 2021 and need one of the big names in free agency to reach the next level of contention. We're going to have to trade Paul to clear cap room so we'll need our first rounders to be available again. That's assuming none of the 2021 stars demands a trade before 2021, which we all know won't happen. Someone will ask out. So we gotta be ready for that contingency. We also need insurance for Jimmy in case the situation goes sideways and we gotta trade him. Or there's a better player available and we trade him cold-bloodedly for the upgrade. Knowing how Riley thinks he'd probably want to ditch 2021 first rounder to have the cap room anyway, rather that money go to a vet than a rookie.

I agree with almost all of your points in regards to why you'd want multiple picks. The original point in question was why you'd be able to ship him off for one when you could get him for two.

I think you undermine your argument with your point regarding the 2023 pick, though. Just getting that one back is worth a lot for you. That's really the only leverage the Thunder have.

If I was the Heat I wouldn't want Paul without multiple picks attached, even if it was the 2023 pick. It's too risky. But if I'm the Thunder, I'm also unlikely to trade multiple picks to get rid of him.

I get the feeling this drags into the season in a game of chicken unless some other team gets involved to give the Thunder some leverage. Then if the Heat have poor to start the season, they end up doing the deal for expirings. If the Heat are in third or fourth, the Thunder start attaching the picks you want. It's the only way I see the Heat having enough assets to pull off a trade for the kind of player who could put you in contention.

[abark]

Can't lie, I'd take 1 pick and Paul as long as it didn't include Winslow/Waiters

I think that’s what we’re hoping for, 1 pick and whatever you guys want to dump for salary matching purposes.

No one wants him for one pick. A guy that will be making 45 million at 37 is an albatross.

You should have never taken that contract, unless you were willing to eat it. You got 2 picks for WB and it should take 2 picks to get rid of CP.

Might as well have traded us WB for our expirings if you're team is that desparate to unload CP before the season.

But I didn't really want WB anyway.

[jake_swivel]

Can't lie, I'd take 1 pick and Paul as long as it didn't include Winslow/Waiters

I think that’s what we’re hoping for, 1 pick and whatever you guys want to dump for salary matching purposes.

No one wants him for one pick. A guy that will be making 45 million at 37 is an albatross.

You should have never taken that contract, unless you were willing to eat it. You got 2 picks for WB and it will take 2 picks to get rid of CP.

Might as well have traded us WB for our expirings if you're team is that desparate to unload CP.

But I didn't really want WB anyway.

Depends which picks get traded back. If it's the Denver pick and the 22 clippers pick, it's not the same as trading Russ for expirings. They likely won't have the same value as the Houston picks (not to mention the one pick swap that has a chance to convey).

[abark]

I think that’s what we’re hoping for, 1 pick and whatever you guys want to dump for salary matching purposes.

No one wants him for one pick. A guy that will be making 45 million at 37 is an albatross.

You should have never taken that contract, unless you were willing to eat it. You got 2 picks for WB and it will take 2 picks to get rid of CP.

Might as well have traded us WB for our expirings if you're team is that desparate to unload CP.

But I didn't really want WB anyway.

Depends which picks get traded back. If it's the Denver pick and the 22 clippers pick, it's not the same as trading Russ for expirings. They likely won't have the same value as the Houston picks (not to mention the one pick swap that has a chance to convey).

Very true. But I don't think 2 of their low value picks will do it either.

I don't mean to come off harsh. Just sick of hearing us connected to 31+ year old declining PG's with horrible contracts from the same damn team.

[ThunderBolt]

Can't lie, I'd take 1 pick and Paul as long as it didn't include Winslow/Waiters

I think that’s what we’re hoping for, 1 pick and whatever you guys want to dump for salary matching purposes.

No one wants him for one pick. A guy that will be making 45 million at 37 is an albatross.

You should have never taken that contract, unless you were willing to eat it. You got 2 picks for WB and it should take 2 picks to get rid of CP.

Might as well have traded us WB for our expirings if you're team is that desparate to unload CP before the season.

But I didn't really want WB anyway.

No one? I mean the Miami fan just before you seemed agreeable to the deal.

[BBallFreak]

I think that’s what we’re hoping for, 1 pick and whatever you guys want to dump for salary matching purposes.

No one wants him for one pick. A guy that will be making 45 million at 37 is an albatross.

You should have never taken that contract, unless you were willing to eat it. You got 2 picks for WB and it should take 2 picks to get rid of CP.

Might as well have traded us WB for our expirings if you're team is that desparate to unload CP before the season.

But I didn't really want WB anyway.

No one? I mean the Miami fan just before you seemed agreeable to the deal.

I think he's talking about actual teams. I think we all understood that.

[abark]

I think that’s what we’re hoping for, 1 pick and whatever you guys want to dump for salary matching purposes.

No one wants him for one pick. A guy that will be making 45 million at 37 is an albatross.

You should have never taken that contract, unless you were willing to eat it. You got 2 picks for WB and it should take 2 picks to get rid of CP.

Might as well have traded us WB for our expirings if you're team is that desparate to unload CP before the season.

But I didn't really want WB anyway.

No one? I mean the Miami fan just before you seemed agreeable to the deal.

No you're right. I have plenty of friends that are still bitching that we didn't just trade Bam, Winslow, and Herro for WB. So there are a lot of thirsty Heat fans out there.

I honestly think you guys made the right moves with both your stars.

But the Heat are not a WB or CP away from competing, and all either does is lock us into mediocrity for over the next half decade.

I'm not even saying Riley won't fall for it. He's a desperate old man at this point. I'm just sick of constantly checking to make sure we didn't screw our franchise.

I'm sure you're a nice guy, but I honestly just want to tell the Thunder to **** off with these trade proposals.

[Legit1]

Makes sense.

[Bishop45]

I think that’s what we’re hoping for, 1 pick and whatever you guys want to dump for salary matching purposes.

No one wants him for one pick. A guy that will be making 45 million at 37 is an albatross.

You should have never taken that contract, unless you were willing to eat it. You got 2 picks for WB and it should take 2 picks to get rid of CP.

Might as well have traded us WB for our expirings if you're team is that desparate to unload CP before the season.

But I didn't really want WB anyway.

No one? I mean the Miami fan just before you seemed agreeable to the deal.

I wouldn't mind, but that's just me. We're going to spend that 45 mil somewhere, not very likely to spend it on a talent like Paul; as said before, in this league 4 quarters =/= $1

But 35 yo Paul isn't getting us a chip, neither is the 37 year old one. Neither is Beal, Wall. They help us get to fringe contender status at least with a keyhole peek at a chip, It's all very hopeless tbh. BG/Giannas would be a blessing or if we luckily landed a really good young player(Shoulda grasped for moar piques this offseason tbh)