Chuma Okeke drafted #16 by the Orlando Magic

[J the Drafter]

Nobody is claiming NAW should be compared to Okeke based on SL play. His performance in SL is just fuel to the fire based on the overthinking of the pick. Especially when this FO is selling playoffs and he potentially provided the skill set that Orlando currently lacks in that part of the rotation.

Few things...

I like Nickeil Alexander-Walker. I think he’s a good, solid player and I would have been perfectly happy had the Magic drafted him. I personally had him and Okeke in the same tier (along with Ty Jerome) and would have been happy with any of them really. My concerns about NAW's game overall would have existed whether Orlando drafted him or not. Ultimately they did not.

Despite his summer league performance, I am skeptical NAW is actually going to be able to play point guard once he’s facing NBA perimeter and interior defenders. I think he’s a more natural SG who can do some ball handling and shot creating for others, but more in a secondary role rather than a straight up PG.

So if you also agree (and maybe you don’t) that NAW is a SG and not really a traditional PG, then the question becomes - is he actually even cracking the Magic’s rotation this year? Would Alexander-Walker see minutes at SG over the 17M a year starter or the 13.5M backup?

I’m not even arguing that he *shouldn't* play over those guys if he proved worthy, I’m simply saying he most likely wouldn’t have cracked the SG rotation ahead of those two veterans with Clifford as coach. So then his only path to minutes *this year* would have been at backup PG where I personally don’t think he would have great success.

Now... as far as “this FO is selling playoffs” thing. I agree wholeheartedly, that’s what they’re doing. But that reason is why I actually go the opposite way on the Okeke pick.

The fact that the Magic are selling us all on more playoff pushes, yet took another forward in the draft who also has a torn ACL rehab and recovery to deal with leads me to believe that they genuinely think Okeke is going to be the best player down the road of the guys available.

With the playoffs in mind, the simple decision would have been to draft purely for need. The Magic could have tried to find the player who could have best stepped in and contributed THIS season. It would have been NAW if you think he can play PG or someone like Ty Jerome, but the Magic didn’t do that. They drafted a player who frankly won’t help them much this season at all. Clearly it was a BPA situation. Now if the counter-argument is “Okeke wasn’t the best player available”, that’s fair. He wasn’t for me either. I had Grant Williams higher.

That’s the other interesting thing for me. The fact is that even without the ACL rehab, Okeke probably isn’t playing a whole lot this season anyway. If we being up front about it, there’s no clear path to him cracking the rotation at all once he is healthy unless...

Admittedly this is a bit of a long-game play, but it sure feels like with the Aminu/Okeke acquisitions, that the end goal is to trade Aaron Gordon away for the best PG/SG that they can get assuming Fultz does in fact bust.

The questions then becomes...

Can Aminu and eventually Okeke replicate Gordon’s production at 50% of the price?

and

Can the Magic acquire a guard better than Alexander-Walker for Aaron Gordon?

We’ll see if the answer is yes to both questions. If it is, then the pick makes more sense.

Why not just put Isaac, Gordon and Okeke on the floor together with Aminu as backup? That mlsss more sense to me than dumping Gordon in order to have a more traditional lineup.

[Knightro]

I agree with you that NAW isnt a PG. and he only played part time PG at Tech due to injuries. But he can play SG/SF. as to your comment about playing over the $17mil starter, i dont think Clifford cares. He will play who he needs to win, thats why Birch played over our #6 draft pick Bamba, because he out played him. He could find minutes as a ball handler with the 2nd unit, or SF behind AG/Isaac (whoever is the "SF") if Ross is playing SG. As for Okeke being the "best player down the road" I'm sure they thought that with Thon Maker. There are still questions about Bamba too. We see players all the time bust out after being drafted for athletic ability or physical attributes rather than skill. And its not like NAW isnt a 2-way player too, he is very good on defense.

I'm not going to grab a pitch fork and a torch, just seems like they have an idea of players that they want must meet a specific physical profile and are not addressing a severe need of playmakers at PG/SG either thru the draft or free agency (right now. we'll see if a trade is incoming this season). too many eggs in the basket of Fultz recovering. And even if you believe Fultz recovers, why not get more playmakers? That way you arent relying too much on 1 person.

Ehhh. Gotta disagree with you on the Clifford thing.

Bamba never got formally benched or really even lost minutes in favor of Birch. Bamba was firmly the backup C up until the day the team announced he had a stress fracture in his leg.

Birch had 32 DNP Coach's Decision's in the first 52 games and basically only played garbage time until Mo got hurt.

[Knightro]

Why not just put Isaac, Gordon and Okeke on the floor together with Aminu as backup? That mlsss more sense to me than dumping Gordon in order to have a more traditional lineup.

Skeptical that those three guys can all share the floor unless it's a small lineup with one of them (Isaac presumably) playing center.

[Magic4champ]

Let's wait til Okeke gets his chance to showcase his skills. He has more upside to be an elite wing with his shooting, passing and defense. He also complements Vooch our stretch center with his playmaking skills. He offers a ton of possible mismatches with the switching type of defense. Elite wings like kawhi, giannis and siakam are rare. As they can guard anyone, create for everyone and shoot from the outside. Finding rare gifted wings is not an exact science. But with new statistical datas that studies the games i rhink Okeke is considered a measured risk for this FO. They hit the homerun with Giannis and Siakam, I think I like their pick in JI for us. No reason to doubt this pick.

[tiderulz]

I agree with you that NAW isnt a PG. and he only played part time PG at Tech due to injuries. But he can play SG/SF. as to your comment about playing over the $17mil starter, i dont think Clifford cares. He will play who he needs to win, thats why Birch played over our #6 draft pick Bamba, because he out played him. He could find minutes as a ball handler with the 2nd unit, or SF behind AG/Isaac (whoever is the "SF") if Ross is playing SG. As for Okeke being the "best player down the road" I'm sure they thought that with Thon Maker. There are still questions about Bamba too. We see players all the time bust out after being drafted for athletic ability or physical attributes rather than skill. And its not like NAW isnt a 2-way player too, he is very good on defense.

I'm not going to grab a pitch fork and a torch, just seems like they have an idea of players that they want must meet a specific physical profile and are not addressing a severe need of playmakers at PG/SG either thru the draft or free agency (right now. we'll see if a trade is incoming this season). too many eggs in the basket of Fultz recovering. And even if you believe Fultz recovers, why not get more playmakers? That way you arent relying too much on 1 person.

Ehhh. Gotta disagree with you on the Clifford thing.

Bamba never got formally benched or really even lost minutes in favor of Birch. Bamba was firmly the backup C up until the day the team announced he had a stress fracture in his leg.

Birch had 32 DNP Coach's Decision's in the first 52 games and basically only played garbage time until Mo got hurt.

mea culpa. i thought i had looked at it, but your right. Birch's playing time really didnt happen until Bamba got hurt.

[tiderulz]

Let's wait til Okeke gets his chance to showcase his skills. He has more upside to be an elite wing with his shooting, passing and defense. He also complements Vooch our stretch center with his playmaking skills. He offers a ton of possible mismatches with the switching type of defense. Elite wings like kawhi, giannis and siakam are rare. As they can guard anyone, create for everyone and shoot from the outside. Finding rare gifted wings is not an exact science. But with new statistical datas that studies the games i rhink Okeke is considered a measured risk for this FO. They hit the homerun with Giannis and Siakam, I think I like their pick in JI for us. No reason to doubt this pick.

im not sure on Okeke's ball handling and if you cant handle the ball very well, you arent going to be that big a play maker. unless i read that wrong and you meant Vuc's playmaking skills

[fendilim]

I'm actually more worried with NAW's shot release more than anything. It does seem kinda unorthodox and a bit slow. Whether he can do pullup shots, in NBA speed, he's been making in SL remains to be seen.

[VFX]

Nobody is claiming NAW should be compared to Okeke based on SL play. His performance in SL is just fuel to the fire based on the overthinking of the pick. Especially when this FO is selling playoffs and he potentially provided the skill set that Orlando currently lacks in that part of the rotation.

Few things...

I like Nickeil Alexander-Walker. I think he’s a good, solid player and I would have been perfectly happy had the Magic drafted him. I personally had him and Okeke in the same tier (along with Ty Jerome) and would have been happy with any of them really. My concerns about NAW's game overall would have existed whether Orlando drafted him or not. Ultimately they did not.

Despite his summer league performance, I am skeptical NAW is actually going to be able to play point guard once he’s facing NBA perimeter and interior defenders. I think he’s a more natural SG who can do some ball handling and shot creating for others, but more in a secondary role rather than a straight up PG.

So if you also agree (and maybe you don’t) that NAW is a SG and not really a traditional PG, then the question becomes - is he actually even cracking the Magic’s rotation this year? Would Alexander-Walker see minutes at SG over the 17M a year starter or the 13.5M backup?

I’m not even arguing that he *shouldn't* play over those guys if he proved worthy, I’m simply saying he most likely wouldn’t have cracked the SG rotation ahead of those two veterans with Clifford as coach. So then his only path to minutes *this year* would have been at backup PG where I personally don’t think he would have great success.

Now... as far as “this FO is selling playoffs” thing. I agree wholeheartedly, that’s what they’re doing. But that reason is why I actually go the opposite way on the Okeke pick.

The fact that the Magic are selling us all on more playoff pushes, yet took another forward in the draft who also has a torn ACL rehab and recovery to deal with leads me to believe that they genuinely think Okeke is going to be the best player down the road of the guys available.

With the playoffs in mind, the simple decision would have been to draft purely for need. The Magic could have tried to find the player who could have best stepped in and contributed THIS season. It would have been NAW if you think he can play PG or someone like Ty Jerome, but the Magic didn’t do that. They drafted a player who frankly won’t help them much this season at all. Clearly it was a BPA situation. Now if the counter-argument is “Okeke wasn’t the best player available”, that’s fair. He wasn’t for me either. I had Grant Williams higher.

That’s the other interesting thing for me. The fact is that even without the ACL rehab, Okeke probably isn’t playing a whole lot this season anyway. If we being up front about it, there’s no clear path to him cracking the rotation at all once he is healthy unless...

Admittedly this is a bit of a long-game play, but it sure feels like with the Aminu/Okeke acquisitions, that the end goal is to trade Aaron Gordon away for the best PG/SG that they can get assuming Fultz does in fact bust.

The questions then becomes...

Can Aminu and eventually Okeke replicate Gordon’s production at 50% of the price?

and

Can the Magic acquire a guard better than Alexander-Walker for Aaron Gordon?

We’ll see if the answer is yes to both questions. If it is, then the pick makes more sense.

Yes, they made the pick as a future move at a much lower draft position. That’s an understandable strategy. Okeke himself was a solid pick considering the value of his skill set. I wasn’t expecting NAW to come in day 1 and take over for Fournier. That was never going to happen.

What annoys me most about this FO is how they say one thing and do another. Which is it? Are Orlando legitimately trying to push for a deep playoff run after committing a ton of money to a 7th seed that almost fell into the tax? Or are they putting themselves in the best position to land talent and acquire young assets to build for the future? The answer could be - Both! However, it just seems like they are half-assing both instead of actually choosing either. Only a bigger move will actually determine those questions. They’ve done a masterful job at riding that line of ambiguity for what seems like forever.

Let’s hypothetically say that Aminu and Okeke could replicate AG’s performance at half the cost, AG is traded for a guard, and Fultz starts to look like the #1 pick people believed him to be. Great! That’s also assuming a ton and will require Weltham to make massive decisions that we haven’t seen them make for 3 off-seasons.

I’m going to be a huge Okeke supporter in the following years. I won’t care what NAW does in NO because it’s an entirely different team, situation, etc. to even care to obsess over. The main point of contention ultimately comes down to making sense of the entirety of the offseason moves, and how they relate to the bigger picture.

[Magic4champ]

Let's wait til Okeke gets his chance to showcase his skills. He has more upside to be an elite wing with his shooting, passing and defense. He also complements Vooch our stretch center with his playmaking skills. He offers a ton of possible mismatches with the switching type of defense. Elite wings like kawhi, giannis and siakam are rare. As they can guard anyone, create for everyone and shoot from the outside. Finding rare gifted wings is not an exact science. But with new statistical datas that studies the games i rhink Okeke is considered a measured risk for this FO. They hit the homerun with Giannis and Siakam, I think I like their pick in JI for us. No reason to doubt this pick.

im not sure on Okeke's ball handling and if you cant handle the ball very well, you arent going to be that big a play maker. unless i read that wrong and you meant Vuc's playmaking skills

Sorry if you misread it, it's Vooch playmaking skills our unicorn center. Our passing bigman who shoots the 3 ball and the fulcrum of our offense. With him and Okeke they complement each other in terms of speed of the game and movement in the half court. Also their sizes complement in defense as okeke has a nose for anticipation and reading the enemies offense.

[Optimus_Steel]

WeHam felt Chuma was a lottery pick talent so I will give him the benefit of the doubt until he goes out there on the floor and proves it or not. But he is clearly multi skilled which is what I asked before the draft, put skill ahead of measurements.

[tiderulz]

Let's wait til Okeke gets his chance to showcase his skills. He has more upside to be an elite wing with his shooting, passing and defense. He also complements Vooch our stretch center with his playmaking skills. He offers a ton of possible mismatches with the switching type of defense. Elite wings like kawhi, giannis and siakam are rare. As they can guard anyone, create for everyone and shoot from the outside. Finding rare gifted wings is not an exact science. But with new statistical datas that studies the games i rhink Okeke is considered a measured risk for this FO. They hit the homerun with Giannis and Siakam, I think I like their pick in JI for us. No reason to doubt this pick.

im not sure on Okeke's ball handling and if you cant handle the ball very well, you arent going to be that big a play maker. unless i read that wrong and you meant Vuc's playmaking skills

Sorry if you misread it, it's Vooch playmaking skills our unicorn center. Our passing bigman who shoots the 3 ball and the fulcrum of our offense. With him and Okeke they complement each other in terms of speed of the game and movement in the half court. Also their sizes complement in defense as okeke has a nose for anticipation and reading the enemies offense.

Except Vuc isnt a unicorn center. What exactly about him do you think makes him a unicorn? as for size, OKeke is actually closer to SG/SF but without those skills other than set shot

[tiderulz]

WeHam felt Chuma was a lottery pick talent so I will give him the benefit of the doubt until he goes out there on the floor and proves it or not. But he is clearly multi skilled which is what I asked before the draft, put skill ahead of measurements.

one of them thought Thon Maker was a lottery talent too

[Optimus_Steel]

WeHam felt Chuma was a lottery pick talent so I will give him the benefit of the doubt until he goes out there on the floor and proves it or not. But he is clearly multi skilled which is what I asked before the draft, put skill ahead of measurements.

one of them thought Thon Maker was a lottery talent too

And???? The draft is a gamble unless you have the #1 pick and a teenage LeBron James is available.

[tiderulz]

WeHam felt Chuma was a lottery pick talent so I will give him the benefit of the doubt until he goes out there on the floor and proves it or not. But he is clearly multi skilled which is what I asked before the draft, put skill ahead of measurements.

one of them thought Thon Maker was a lottery talent too

And???? The draft is a gamble unless you have the #1 pick and a teenage LeBron James is available.

just that they arent hitting 100%. they draft for a physical profile. Whats Thon? tall and long. Siakam, Isaac Bonga.

and i wouldnt necessarily call him "multi skilled". You can play defense without being skilled. Now he can shoot the 3, that is a skill. I want to see what else he has

[Knightro]

What annoys me most about this FO is how they say one thing and do another. Which is it? Are Orlando legitimately trying to push for a deep playoff run after committing a ton of money to a 7th seed that almost fell into the tax? Or are they putting themselves in the best position to land talent and acquire young assets to build for the future? The answer could be - Both! However, it just seems like they are half-assing both instead of actually choosing either. Only a bigger move will actually determine those questions. They’ve done a masterful job at riding that line of ambiguity for what seems like forever.

I dunno man...

It feels pretty clearly like they're trying to legitimately push for a deeper playoff run to me.

They are literally bringing back every single player that played regular minutes during last year's stretch run and used their full MLE to bring in Aminu who should provide a clear upgrade off the 1500 combined Iwundu/Martin minutes.

The only move they made that couldn't be construed as a win-now move is Okeke, but it was doubtful anyone picked at 16 was cracking the rotation next year anyway.

That said... any and all optimism for this season going better than last season really boils down to two things.

1. Markelle Fultz

2. If you believe what the Magic did during the second half last year (#1 in DREB, #4 in DTRG, #10 ORTG) is sustainable over the course of the entire season

Vegas FWIW has them pegged at 41.5. They outperformed Vegas pretty significantly last year. Can they do it again?

[VFX]

What annoys me most about this FO is how they say one thing and do another. Which is it? Are Orlando legitimately trying to push for a deep playoff run after committing a ton of money to a 7th seed that almost fell into the tax? Or are they putting themselves in the best position to land talent and acquire young assets to build for the future? The answer could be - Both! However, it just seems like they are half-assing both instead of actually choosing either. Only a bigger move will actually determine those questions. They’ve done a masterful job at riding that line of ambiguity for what seems like forever.

I dunno man...

It feels pretty clearly like they're trying to legitimately push for a deeper playoff run to me.

They are literally bringing back every single player that played regular minutes during last year's stretch run and used their full MLE to bring in Aminu who should provide a clear upgrade off the 1500 combined Iwundu/Martin minutes.

The only move they made that couldn't be construed as a win-now move is Okeke, but it was doubtful anyone picked at 16 was cracking the rotation next year anyway.

Yeah, upgrading PF depth with Aminu and bringing back all the guys signals a deep playoff run. Drafting Okeke and failing to bring in any kind of back court improvement, to a team that obviously needs it, does not.

That said... any and all optimism for this season going better than last season really boils down to two things.

1. Markelle Fultz

2. If you believe what the Magic did during the second half last year (#1 in DREB, #4 in DTRG, #10 ORTG) is sustainable over the course of the entire season

Vegas FWIW has them pegged at 41.5. They outperformed Vegas pretty significantly last year. Can they do it again?

Markelle could definitely be a game changer to this FO’s plans. It’s all speculation until it actually happens. We will see.

They could definitely do it again. Orlando was also 100% healthy all season and requires players like Ross and Vuc to be extremely productive and leans on them heavily for any real offense. Will Vuc replicate his contract year season? Will TRoss? Will both? How much will AG and Isaac improve? These are all valid questions.

[Knightro]

Yeah, upgrading PF depth with Aminu and bringing back all the guys signals a deep playoff run. Drafting Okeke and failing to bring in any kind of back court improvement, to a team that obviously needs it, does not.

Markelle could definitely be a game changer to this FO’s plans. It’s all speculation until it actually happens. We will see.

They could definitely do it again. Orlando was also 100% healthy all season and requires players like Ross and Vuc to be extremely productive and leans on them heavily for any real offense. Will Vuc replicate his contract year season? Will TRoss? Will both? How much will AG and Isaac improve? These are all valid questions.

There's only so much money to make improvements in a given offseason, right?

If we go ahead and assume they were always going to resign Vucevic/Ross/Birch/MCW (which it appears was the plan from the moment the season ended), the Magic only had the MLE and the 16th pick to address holes on the roster.

They opted to improve the Iwundu/Martin spot instead of the MCW/Fultz spot with the MLE.

Yes they more or less punted on the 16th pick making an impact this year, but I question if anyone, Alexander-Walker included, would have made a significant impact in Year 1. The only guy I could see really getting time would be Ty Jerome and he'd still have to beat out one of Clifford's favorites in MCW.

Just because Augustin isn't a great starting PG and Fultz/MCW have their share of question marks doesn't mean there's a rookie drafted 16th that's gonna come take those guy's spots no questions asked. We aren't talking about Ja Morant here.

Would they be better off with Satoransky instead of Aminu? Would they be better off with NAW instead of Okeke?

I mean really that's what it boils down to because those were the guys available that the Magic didn't pursue.

Hypothetically... say the Magic sign Satoransky instead of Aminu with their full MLE. At that point Iwundu remains in the rotation and Fultz is likely out of the rotation. Beyond that, they likely wouldn't be able to afford to trade Gordon for a guard because they wouldn't be able to replace those minutes in-house like they can now.

Current Rotation
Augustin/Fournier/Gordon/Isaac/Vucevic
Fultz (or MCW)/Ross/Aminu/Bamba

Rotation with Sato instead of Aminu
Augustin/Fournier/Gordon/Isaac/Vucevic
Satoransky/Ross/Iwundu/Bamba

Which is better?

[ezzzp]

If Summer League is any indication of the kind of player NAW can be during the regular season... this FO will have failed at making an easy decision in exchange for draft bias.

I don’t care if Fultz ends up having a HoF career for us. If NAW is as good as he looks, the front office is stupid for not picking him up. A plays a position of need, we signed Aminu anyway, and he’s healthy...

Agreed. People will manage a way to spin it somehow if he plays up to this level. Okeke wasn’t the BPA by draft metrics and we obviously didn’t need him for this “playoff roster” we just committed all of our cap space toward. It’s so **** ridiculous that our FO has a draft bias when this roster lacks basic talent.

The spin is actually coming from the other direction.

The Magic have draft metrics that no other franchise or any draft analyst have. PLUS guys like Mike Schmidtz, Cole Zwicker and others have raved about how advanced analytics love Okeke.

NAW was not the BPA available by advanced draft metrics, Okeke was better than him:

• PER: NAW 21.9 vs Okeke 24.5
• WS: NAW 5.5 vs Okeke 5.5
• BPM: NAW 9.0 vs Okeke 13.4
• ORtg: NAW 111.9 vs Okeke 121.2
• TS%: NAW .586 vs Okeke .597

What I saw in NAW in SL was that he's not very athletic and doesn't have 1st option ball handler burst; and his passing was reckless.

In 4g / 30.5mpg he put up 24p/5a BUT he did so at a very unimpressive clip: 33 - 80 .410 FG% and with a ton of turn overs (4 per game) and questionable shot selection. Basically the SL Pels were happy just letting him chuck volume (20 FGA's a game) and gave him a ton of minutes. Smells a lot like artificially generated hype.

NAW also doesn't really fill a position of need. He is not an NBA ready starting PG...and right now he doesn't really look like he'll ever be one. He looks like a guard that can handle secondary playmaker role. The Magic already have a secondary playmaker (Fournier) PLUS they just resigned Ross as the back up wing. Aaron Gordon also handled secondary playmaker occasionally. The likelihood that NAW comes in and earns minutes from any of those guys is incredibly low.

At back up PG - Fultz, Augustin and MCW exist. No way he's taking minutes from DJ. Basically his path to minutes at PG would be for Fultz to fail and for him to outplay MCW who was a major factor to the Magic's defense and playoff push.

[J the Drafter]

Why not just put Isaac, Gordon and Okeke on the floor together with Aminu as backup? That mlsss more sense to me than dumping Gordon in order to have a more traditional lineup.

Skeptical that those three guys can all share the floor unless it's a small lineup with one of them (Isaac presumably) playing center.

Why? Isaac seems capable of guarding 3’s, and Gordon is a strong defender against 4’s and wings. The only question defensively is how Chuma fares one-on-one. Offensively, Gordon and Chuma can both shoot and post up. I’m not seeing anything that stops them from playing together.

[VFX]

Yeah, upgrading PF depth with Aminu and bringing back all the guys signals a deep playoff run. Drafting Okeke and failing to bring in any kind of back court improvement, to a team that obviously needs it, does not.

Markelle could definitely be a game changer to this FO’s plans. It’s all speculation until it actually happens. We will see.

They could definitely do it again. Orlando was also 100% healthy all season and requires players like Ross and Vuc to be extremely productive and leans on them heavily for any real offense. Will Vuc replicate his contract year season? Will TRoss? Will both? How much will AG and Isaac improve? These are all valid questions.

Would they be better off with Satoransky instead of Aminu? Would they be better off with NAW instead of Okeke?

IMO yes. Given how Clifford operated with the rotation last season, and the FO’s goals they have been spouting as their intention.

I was a fan of MCW last season as well, but even if Fultz breaks out, Satoranksy or T. Jones would have been decent acquisitions. Especially IF they chose Okeke over NAW to mitigate addressing the position. Also, DJ expires soon. That’s not to say Aminu and Okeke weren’t also great acquisitions, but it’s doesn't line up unless another pending move is made.