Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: potential franchise player?

Zack M · Post #1 » by **Zack M** » Mon Jul 15, 2019 5:57 pm

He's been praised a lot as one of the most talented young point guards in the league and the Clippers forum was in uproar that he was included in the trade for PG.

How much is his upside? He has a superb midrange jumper , court vision and posted a better TS% in his rookie year than prime Westbrook.

What do you think?

mr570 · Post #2 » by **mr570** » Mon Jul 15, 2019 6:27 pm

I like him. If the offense changes to something more open there are some good pieces for that on this team right now. Shai, Bazley, Gallo.

Kizz Fastfists · Post #3 » by **Kizz Fastfists** » Mon Jul 15, 2019 8:06 pm

He is one of the 2.5 superstars you need to contend. I’m not sure he will ever be the best PG in the NBA, but he’ll be an all-star many time with Fox and Luka.

CROklahoma · Post #4 » by **CROklahoma** » Mon Jul 15, 2019 8:12 pm

He'll be an all star by his 4th year. Book it.

I hope he can reach that level of HOF and superstar equasion.

oreojenkins · Post #5 » by **oreojenkins** » Mon Jul 15, 2019 8:22 pm

I think he becomes a suped up version of Mike Conley, which would be fantastic.

Also, here's a pretty good list: https://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/tiny.fcgi?id=34SfF

Requirements
Rookie
22 years old or younger
Guard
6'4"+
OBPM -1.0 or better
DBPM 0.0 or better
Qualified level of minutes

Only 16 players including Harden, Wade, Kidd, Payton, and Drexler.

CROklahoma · Post #6 » by **CROklahoma** » Mon Jul 15, 2019 8:42 pm

Better scorer, passer, defender. Little more TO's and less rebounds.

SGA better than Harden's rookie season.

Optimism !

spearsy23 · Post #7 » by **spearsy23** » Mon Jul 15, 2019 8:48 pm

Borderline all-star, Mike Conley type is still my guess. Can be a solid 2nd best player or a great third.

Post #8 » by **ThunderBolt** » Mon Jul 15, 2019 8:52 pm

He seems like a guy that will make the most of abilities through hard work and intelligence.

Kizz Fastfists · Post #9 » by **Kizz Fastfists** » Mon Jul 15, 2019 9:06 pm

Nice list, Oreo, everyone on it except Harden was older than SGA as a rookie.

cjmcallist · Post #10 » by **cjmcallist** » Wed Jul 17, 2019 3:36 pm

Yeah, good list Oreo.

Was reading through, feeling good then saw MCW.

OkcSinceSGA · Post #11 » by **OkcSinceSGA** » Wed Jul 17, 2019 9:30 pm

oreojenkins wrote:I think he becomes a suped up version of Mike Conley, which would be fantastic.

Also, here's a pretty good list: https://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/tiny.fcgi?id=34SfF

Requirements
Rookie
22 years old or younger
Guard
6'4"+
OBPM -1.0 or better
DBPM 0.0 or better
Qualified level of minutes

Only 16 players including Harden, Wade, Kidd, Payton, and Drexler.

Conley is a good comp. I see him more as bigger Sam Cassell with defense due to him being a big PG, having one of the most automatic mid's I've ever seen and great court vision.

OkcSinceSGA · Post #12 » by **OkcSinceSGA** » Wed Jul 17, 2019 9:30 pm

Kizz Fastfists wrote:Nice list, Oreo, everyone on it except Harden was older than SGA as a rookie.

He's younger than most of the rookies coming in this year having recently turned 20. Think two months younger than his cousin NAW.

spearsy23 · Post #13 » by **spearsy23** » Thu Jul 18, 2019 3:31 am

ClipsFanSince98 wrote:
Kizz Fastfists wrote:Nice list, Oreo, everyone on it except Harden was older than SGA as a rookie.

He's younger than most of the rookies coming in this year having recently turned 20. Think two months younger than his cousin NAW.

Didn't he just turn 21?

OkcSinceSGA · Post #14 » by **OkcSinceSGA** » Thu Jul 18, 2019 3:44 pm

spearsy23 wrote:
ClipsFanSince98 wrote:
Kizz Fastfists wrote:Nice list, Oreo, everyone on it except Harden was older than SGA as a rookie.

He's younger than most of the rookies coming in this year having recently turned 20. Think two months younger than his cousin NAW.

Didn't he just turn 21?

Ah you're right, just a few days ago. Still younger than NAW

. Younger than a lot of rookies in this last class.

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jambalaya · Post #15 » by **jambalaya** » Thu Jul 18, 2019 7:52 pm

Month to month his overall shooting, 3 point shooting and even FT% varied a lot. Good shooting in first playoffs but weak defense and horrible team results. Almost 50% of regular season shots came from mid-range.Cut it a bit in playoffs but this is way higher than league average and probably needs to change. Wasn't assisted much. 3pt rate was pretty low for a guard. Very good end of game clutchtime scoring. Meh at the end of the shot clock.

His RPM estimate was -1.5. Not bad for a rookie but still not that far above replacement and only good for 50th place among point guards. Negative raw on the court, mainly as a starter. With bench had far better team results.

Good pair plus minus with Beverley and Shamet. Bad with Gortat. 3 of his 4 biggest minute lineups with a lot of starters were bad to awful. Team turnovers and negative net assists in those lineups seem to be big issues. Up and down lineups with Galinari, about neutral overall.

Overall team got way less ftas with him on court. Shot defense got modestly worse.

Usage began below average but rose some during the season to average. Only 4 games with more than 15 shots.

Gave up substantially points to his match-up than he scored. Also give up more assist and rebounds.

Post #16 » by **mkwest** » Fri Jul 19, 2019 8:04 pm

If you guys are interested in any of his offseason workout footage, his personal trainer posts from time to time.

Read on Twitter

jambalaya · Post #17 » by **jambalaya** » Sat Jul 20, 2019 2:48 am

Thanks. But super slow motion training. Ok to focus on footwork but I'd think got to rev it to 90-100% of game speed at some point.

SharoneWright · Post #18 » by **SharoneWright** » Tue Jul 23, 2019 12:22 am

Nice background article courtesy Toronto media:

“I think he can be great — and he better be. I tell him that every day,” says Rivers. “‘If you’re not great than it’s my fault and yours. We’re gonna share the responsibility.’ But he has no reason not to be a great player someday, and he will be. I think he has all the tools.”

The one hiccup in Rivers’ prognostication is Gilgeous-Alexander’s lacklustre three-point shooting, perhaps the NBA’s most important skill at his position. He shot just over 34 per cent from distance through the beginning of March, before going on a bit of a run and bumping up to a presentable 37.3 per cent. That inconsistency won’t cut it going forward, but in the meantime, he’ll lean on a skill that’s become something of a lost art in the NBA.

Gilgeous-Alexander is already among the league’s elite from the mid-range, shooting 48.1 per cent from the area on 135 attempts this season. It’s a weapon that should be embraced, argues Clippers assistant Sam Cassell, whose entire 15-year playing career was built between the arc and the key. “His game matches what I did,” says Cassell after helping a number of Clippers get shots up pre-game in Detroit. “He’s more athletic than me, he’s more talented than me and he’s gonna be a better player than me because he’s six-six and a half. Once he learns how to get to his spot and use his height to his advantage, he’s gonna be a tough piece to cover in this league for a long, long time.”

https://www.sportsnet.ca/basketball/nba/shai-gilgeous-alexander-clippers-big-read/

OkcSinceSGA · Post #19 » by **OkcSinceSGA** » Tue Jul 23, 2019 6:52 pm

jambalaya wrote:Month to month his overall shooting, 3 point shooting and even FT% varied a lot. Good shooting in first playoffs but weak defense and horrible team results. Almost 50% of regular season shots came from mid-range.Cut it a bit in playoffs but this is way higher than league average and probably needs to change. Wasn't assisted much. 3pt rate was pretty low for a guard. Very good end of game clutchtime scoring. Meh at the end of the shot clock.

His RPM estimate was -1.5. Not bad for a rookie but still not that far above replacement and only good for 50th place among point guards. Negative raw on the court, mainly as a starter. With bench had far better team results.

Good pair plus minus with Beverley and Shamet. Bad with Gortat. 3 of his 4 biggest minute lineups with a lot of starters were bad to awful. Team turnovers and negative net assists in those lineups seem to be big issues. Up and down lineups with Galinari, about neutral overall.

Overall team got way less ftas with him on court. Shot defense got modestly worse.

Usage began below average but rose some during the season to average. Only 4 games with more than 15 shots.

Gave up substantially points to his match-up than he scored. Also give up more assist and rebounds.

Good research and all, but a bit too simplified. You can't look at differentials so much when the guy started with Avery Bradley and Gortat so much. As you posted he did great with other pairings later in the season after changes. A more accurate summation is basically that he had a really rough 3 month rookie wall from like Jan-March (I'm going off memory here). He picked it up a lot post trade deadline and in the playoffs. Not sure how much of his fault that was at times due to lineups and rotations etc.

He still had an overall very good season for a rookie PG on a team expected to win now. He played great in the playoffs. Almost every rookie guard is a huge negative on D metrics wise but he showed flashes he can really be dominant on that end some day.

PS... You posted his mid-range volume without looking at the insane efficiency. He is a damn near 50% guy from mid which is elite. Best rookie mid I've ever seen. Nothing wrong with the mid since he didn't have a consistent 3 ball yet.

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jambalaya · Post #20 » by **jambalaya** » Thu Jul 25, 2019 3:11 am

Shooting 42-44% from mid-range distances is impressive... to a point. But even at these elevated levels, these are by far his worst shots and the worst shots period in terms of efficiency. Teams need to take some but it needs to be after trying to get better shots.

My breakdown was fairly quick and may not have had everything but it had a ton of detail (around 30 bullet points).