I think AD's reluctancy to verbally commit (he has no incentive to actually sign and extension right now financially), is just a power play by Klutch, similiar to Lebron signing 1+1's in his time in Cleveland. Due to his age, he simply can't do that himself anymore which is why he signed a long contract, but AD pretty much gives Lebron and Klutch the opportunity to continue to run the team without sacrificing Lebron's financial security.
If my theory is correct, this is good news in terms of retaining AD.....he isn't going anywhere even if the Knicks/someone else somehow make an attractive pitch and we struggle this season. He would only leave if the lakers don't give in on any of Lebron/Klutch/AD's demands, or if somehow Lebron and AD have a massive falling out and AD fires Rich Paul. Both those things are very unlikely.
Of course, the bad news is that Klutch will run this team for as long as AD is here and possibly after. Lebron doesn't want Vogel by midseason? best believe he's getting fired. Lebron wants Kuz traded for a win now piece even if it's not the best basketball move? Kuz is gone. Lebron wants to play the three exclusive, or wants limited minutes/ load management, or AD wants to play the four exclusively, or wants limited minutes/load management? Done. Lebron wants melo even though the dude is a cancer and washed up and wants a lot of minutes? Best believe we are getting melo. Don't be surprised KCP gets yet another long term contract/ Other klutch clients get signed/overpaid as we keep moving forward.
It's not ideal, but we wouldn't have Lebron or AD if Klutch didn't have this control over the team.
Now, here is my tin-foil theory:
I believe that Lebron has planned this for a long, long time. I think at the very latest, after the 2017 finals, though possibly even earlier. This is why Kyrie demanded a trade. He knew Lebron's plan, and potentially, this is why PG didn't sign. And that's why Lebron signed a 4 year deal despite no second star. He knew the second star was coming.
This is what I think happened:
Wanting to grow his media empire and pursue his dreams of team ownership, Lebron made the decision to sign with the Lakers the following season barring a huge unexpected change of plans. At this time, Lebron probably already had conversations with AD about teaming up together in LA, despite neither player actually in LA. Magic knew about this plan, thus the irrational confidence that he'll sign a star and the DLo trade. Kyrie knew about this and demanded a trade. Lebron played out the season in Cleveland (he couldn't demand a trade to LA....he knew we would need those assets for AD....), while the Lakers made a couple of more moves/non-moves in preperation for the summer and beyond. Summer arrived and Lebron signed with the LAkers insantly, and the team didn't bother to sign any long deals or to trade for Kawhi or anyone else. Again, they knew they needed those assets for AD. In the same summer, AD signed with Klutch, and demanded a trade a couple of months later. He had probably planned all of this well in advance. The seasons plays out, and AD is now here, as it was planned by Lebron all along. He won't commit, and I wouldn't be surprised if he signs a 1+1 deal this summer, because Lebron wants to control the team. He never sacrificed his power by signing a 4 year deal. He just knew he could have financial security while also being able to control the team through AD.
Now, this is where it gets super tinfoil. My addition to this theory is that Lebron wants to buy the Lakers when he retires, or at the very least, he wants a significant share in the team. Of course he can't do that now, but by establishing Klutch in LA via AD, he has all the leverage when his playing days are over. The Buss family may face a difficult decision once Lebron retires: Sell the team (or a huge part of the team) to Lebron, or hurt their relationship with Klutch and basically lose AD as well. I know this part of it becomes very farfetched....and I don't know enough about the conflict of interest rules, etc. But I really believe that all of this was planned way earlier by Lebron & Maverick Carter. Rich Paul is just the figurehead.
First Lebron became the defacto player coach of his team because of how good he was. Then he became the defacto player GM of his team because of how good he was. Now, he's manipulating situations outside of his team, and is exterting power by proxy, without having to sacrifice financial security, while retaining this power even as his skills decline. I believe his next goal is ownership, and he's planting the seed for that already.
Again, I know this level of conspiracy and planning is far fetched. But imagine this scenario.
It's summer 2025. Lebron has just retired (or had retired a year earlier at the age of 40, while dominating the lakers FO decisions throughout this time despite his skills decling. He is the all time scoring leader and hopefully has one more ring or two, essentially going down as the GOAT. He got his dream of playing in the NBA with Klutch client Lebron james Jr Meanwhile, Klutch has manuevered AD's contracts in a way that he's a free agent this year, and they have maneuvered the lakers cap situation in a way that they have two max capspace; Klutch client Ben Simmons is a free agent in his prime at 28. Klutch client AD is a free agent towards the end of his prime. Lebron James makes an offer to buy the Lakers (or significant shares), with the understanding being that if the Lakers accept Simmons and AD sign.
In this scenario Lebron has the most leverage any individual ever has in negotiating for ownership stakes for a team. While the Buss family don't want to sell the lakers or lose control of the team, they are now facing a very tough decision. Continue to compete, or enter a long rebuild with losing AD for nothing. Keep in mind, that during this time, Klutch has made sure the Lakers don't have any assets or young players with potential left. Those assets have been traded for win now pieces or cap clearing purposes. The Lakers are basically screwed (other than capspace) for the near future. Revenue and franchise value will surely take a huge hit. Meanwhile, Lebron has prepared a very lucrative offer through his business ventures and other investors. The Buss family have no reason to sell the Lakers, that's true, and I don't believe leverage will be enough for them to sell the team completely, and they can still refuse. but they would have heavy financial incentives to atleast consider selling ownership stakes to Lebron.
Anyways I apologize for the caffeine inspired long post, and if you are still reading this thank you for your time
I guess my questions for you guys would be:
1. Am I completely crazy or can this actually be possible?
2. Are there any legal rules that could stop from Lebron trying this? Conflict of interest/etc? Can a player retire and instantly make an offer to buy a NBA team? Can Klutch plan ahead in order to find loopholes if such restrictions exist?
3. IF (HUGE IF), this is actually what Lebron's plan is, and legally such a thing is possible, do you think the Buss family will consider selling the team? What about ownership stakes?
4. IF (HUGE IF), this is actually what lebron's plan is, and legally such a thing is possible, and the Buss family would consider doing it, how do you, as a fan, feel about it? I think we would all be uncomfortable with Lebron/Klutch basically doing a ruthless takeover on our beloved lakers, but what if the alternative is years of irrelevance vs sustained?
