Realistic Expectations

[Hoopz Afrik]

A healthy team should be in the 53-win range at absolute worst imo.

[jkokkotos]

Worst-case scenario:
- 7th Seed (in which case, injuries to important player occurred) and a tough 1st Round Exit against a 2nd Seed like Denver/Utah/LAC (remember that we aren't healthy in this scenario)
Best-case scenario:
- 4th-6th seed (LeBron-AD averaging 32-35 mpg, playing 70 games, staying healthy & fresh, marathon not a sprint) and then it's a title or a loss to the LAC in whatever round (I think our chances are close to 50%-50% against them, don't see any other team in the league that can beat us in a 7-game series if we're at 100% health & the roster has developed some chemistry. We're over-reliant on LeBron offensively to initiate the action and that makes us truly vulnerable to a team that can just throw elite perimeter defender after elite perimeter defender at him without worrying about fouls/fatigue thanks to Kawhi-George-Beverley being there & can also switch a lot of 1-5 screening actions thanks to Harell/Green acting as small-ball Centers most of the time. They also possess not equal but a comparable level of talent offensively as a team, our only serious advantage is their lack of a reliable AD/Cousins defender but I'm guessing they could exploit Cousins' defense just as much if we try to play with a Twin Towers lineup and they counter with 5 shooters - AD can keep up with stretch 5's tho)

Vogel needs to figure out a way to make LeBron-Davis-Cousins-Rondo (his big-name veterans in other words) understand that the team's success should be their priority and that means Rondo-Cousins might be needed more in the 2nd unit rather than the starting lineup. Rondo is a below-average 3pt shooter (his 3P% is deceivingly good, mostly b/c defenses choose to double off of him & leave him wide open), who coasts defensively at this stage of his career & is only good to run the offense for short spurts of time. LeBron thrives when he's surrounded by 4 shooters or 3 shooters + 1 roll-to-the-basket/lob-threat big-man. Cousins is on a 1-yr deal again, getting ready to hit the market once again but this time after having played a full season, so I'm guessing he'd want all the playing time & offensive touches he can possibly get in hope of finding better offers than the last time.

Starting lineup: Bradley/Caruso - Green - LeBron - Davis - McGee. Surround LBJ-AD with 3&D guys & a defensive big to accommodate AD's preference to play PF most of the time, it's still a very good lineup defensively (all of them are average/above-average defensively) and serviceable offensively (2 shooters, AD can do both, McGee can play the Tristan Thompson role).

Bench lineup: Rondo - Pope - Dudley - Kuzma - Cousins. Give Rondo the ball, surround him with shooting even at the C position and let him feed Boogie-Kuz while Pope-Dudley spot-up at the corners waiting for a pass either from Rondo or Cousins who's a great secondary playmaker from the high post, in drive&kick plays or quick Dribble Hand Off plays that result in something like a moving screen which frees up the recipient of the ball to give him a 1on1 against Cousins' big. Kuzma improving his 3&D abilities would help both this bench unit and his own chance at being in the closing lineup tremendously. If he doesn't improve his defense & long-range shooting, then I expect him to struggle with finding a role & minutes within this roster's pecking order.

Closing lineup: Bradley/Pope - Green - Kuzma - LeBron - Davis. As I already said, LeBron's best lineups by net rating have always come when he's paired next to 4 shooters or 3 of them + a big that can run both P&Roll and P&Pop. Since this is the closing lineup, there's no room for non-shooters or defensive liabilities here, which means no Rondo, no Cook, no McGee and maybe no Boogie because most teams are closing with small-ball lineups. Going back to Kuzma & assuming he has improved his 3&D skills like I said earlier, he can space the floor offensively while also holding his own on D which means he has earned his spot. Bradley/Pope will fight for the last guard spot next to Green, depending on who provides the team with the best combination of defense on opposing PGs as well as 3pt shooting ability.

[Danny Darko]

^^Best case scenario is 4th in the west for a team that stands as co-favorite for a championship in Vegas? classic.

[tamaraw08]

Worst-case scenario:



Starting lineup: Bradley/Caruso - Green - LeBron - Davis - McGee. Surround LBJ-AD with 3&D guys & a defensive big to accommodate AD's preference to play PF most of the time, it's still a very good lineup defensively (all of them are average/above-average defensively) and serviceable offensively (2 shooters, AD can do both, McGee can play the Tristan Thompson role).

Bench lineup: Rondo - Pope - Dudley - Kuzma - Cousins. Give Rondo the ball, surround him with shooting even at the C position and let him feed Boogie-Kuz while Pope-Dudley spot-up at the corners waiting for a pass either from Rondo or Cousins who's a great secondary playmaker from the high post, in drive&kick plays or quick Dribble Hand Off plays that result in something like a moving screen which frees up the recipient of the ball to give him a 1on1 against Cousins' big. Kuzma improving his 3&D abilities would help both this bench unit and his own chance at being in the closing lineup tremendously. If he doesn't improve his defense & long-range shooting, then I expect him to struggle with finding a role & minutes within this roster's pecking order.

Closing lineup: Bradley/Pope - Green - Kuzma - LeBron - Davis. As I already said, LeBron's best lineups by net rating have always come when he's paired next to 4 shooters or 3 of them + a big that can run both P&Roll and P&Pop. Since this is the closing lineup, there's no room for non-shooters or defensive liabilities here, which means no Rondo, no Cook, no McGee and maybe no Boogie because most teams are closing with small-ball lineups. Going back to Kuzma & assuming he has improved his 3&D skills like I said earlier, he can space the floor offensively while also holding his own on D which means he has earned his spot. Bradley/Pope will fight for the last guard spot next to Green, depending on who provides the team with the best combination of defense on opposing PGs as well as 3pt shooting ability.

I agree with most of you points esp the bolded part. I really like your starting lineup bec of their combo of shooting and defense but I would sub AD at the 6-7th mark so he can rest and play with the 2nd unit with Rondo spearheading the offense and hopefully they can re-create what they had in NO when they won many games there. Hopefully Kuz will improve his 3pt shooting ala Mirotic.
I am not sure tho If I like to see KCP in the closing lineup bec like you said they need to shooting and KCP has a career 34.5% as compared to Cook, whom you didn't like has a career 41.8% from 3 pt area. But like I said everything else looks good esp with AD playing C in the final 4-5 mins.

[LAKESHOW]

Cook will start. Thats just clear to me. Hes the best shooter. Hes a point. He was a lockerroom guy in GS, meaning will gel with Bron. He has a championship pedigree. Can bring the ball up, or hide in a corner, camp and knock down. He has a solid midrange. Can penetrate. Both Rondo and Carusso are missing some of these components.

[stan francisco]

As low as 57-25 and as high as 65-17, either way wouldn’t shock me.

WCF and all the way (rings) if healthy. That’s my prediction.

[stan francisco]

Cook will start. Thats just clear to me. Hes the best shooter. Hes a point. He was a lockerroom guy in GS, meaning will gel with Bron. He has a championship pedigree. Can bring the ball up, or hide in a corner, camp and knock down. He has a solid midrange. Can penetrate. Both Rondo and Carusso are missing some of these components.

But he only plays one end of the court. I doubt he’ll get starter’s minutes over Caruso who shoots very well from everywhere and also defends like a dawg at multiple positions and is bigger.

[LAKESHOW]

I just dont see a gleaguer/backup, all of the sudden starting over a guy coming off of multiple finals experience. But hey, caruso wins the job, he wins the job, period. No ifs ands or buts from me.

[stan francisco]

I just dont see a gleaguer/backup, all of the sudden starting over a guy coming off of multiple finals experience. But hey, caruso wins the job, he wins the job, period. No ifs ands or buts from me.

We’ll have to see, and it’s alright to disagree. I see him as a high value at $5M on NBA terms. I’m surprised nobody outbid us. Solid on both ends. But hey, Cook wins the job, he wins the job, period.

[tamaraw08]

I just dont see a gleaguer/backup, all of the sudden starting over a guy coming off of multiple finals experience. But hey, caruso wins the job, he wins the job, period. No ifs ands or buts from me.

We’ll have to see, and it’s alright to disagree. I see him as a high value at $5M on NBA terms. I’m surprised nobody outbid us. Solid on both ends. But hey, Cook wins the job, he wins the job, period.

Both are good enough to start to start IMO, Byron Scott and Jorge Sedano actually prefers Bradley who is a proven defender assuming he’s healthy of course. A lot will depend on who is best in practice in terms of meshing with other starters, shooting and defense.

[jkokkotos]

Worst-case scenario:



Starting lineup: Bradley/Caruso - Green - LeBron - Davis - McGee. Surround LBJ-AD with 3&D guys & a defensive big to accommodate AD's preference to play PF most of the time, it's still a very good lineup defensively (all of them are average/above-average defensively) and serviceable offensively (2 shooters, AD can do both, McGee can play the Tristan Thompson role).

Bench lineup: Rondo - Pope - Dudley - Kuzma - Cousins. Give Rondo the ball, surround him with shooting even at the C position and let him feed Boogie-Kuz while Pope-Dudley spot-up at the corners waiting for a pass either from Rondo or Cousins who's a great secondary playmaker from the high post, in drive&kick plays or quick Dribble Hand Off plays that result in something like a moving screen which frees up the recipient of the ball to give him a 1on1 against Cousins' big. Kuzma improving his 3&D abilities would help both this bench unit and his own chance at being in the closing lineup tremendously. If he doesn't improve his defense & long-range shooting, then I expect him to struggle with finding a role & minutes within this roster's pecking order.

Closing lineup: Bradley/Pope - Green - Kuzma - LeBron - Davis. As I already said, LeBron's best lineups by net rating have always come when he's paired next to 4 shooters or 3 of them + a big that can run both P&Roll and P&Pop. Since this is the closing lineup, there's no room for non-shooters or defensive liabilities here, which means no Rondo, no Cook, no McGee and maybe no Boogie because most teams are closing with small-ball lineups. Going back to Kuzma & assuming he has improved his 3&D skills like I said earlier, he can space the floor offensively while also holding his own on D which means he has earned his spot. Bradley/Pope will fight for the last guard spot next to Green, depending on who provides the team with the best combination of defense on opposing PGs as well as 3pt shooting ability.

I agree with most of you points esp the bolded part. I really like your starting lineup bec of their combo of shooting and defense but I would sub AD at the 6-7th mark so he can rest and play with the 2nd unit with Rondo spearheading the offense and hopefully they can re-create what they had in NO when they won many games there. Hopefully Kuz will improve his 3pt shooting ala Mirotic.
I am not sure tho If I like to see KCP in the closing lineup bec like you said they need to shooting and KCP has a career 34.5% as compared to Cook, whom you didn't like has a career 41.8% from 3 pt area. But like I said everything else looks good esp with AD playing C in the final 4-5 mins.

I like Cook but I just envision his potential (or rather his ideal imho) role with this roster a bit differently than others. If you check his lineup ratings with the GSW in the last 2 seasons, you'll see he never played with Curry on the court & was mostly featured in lineups with KD-Klay-Iggy/Dray so that they could hide him defensively and have Iggy/Dray and/or KD make plays.

He had -2.03 in ESPN's DRPM in 2017-18. Looking at the top-3 lineups he played with in terms of minutes, what's evident is that he was always played with 4 good or great defenders but he still ended up with a really bad Real Plus Minus:
- Cook/Klay/Durant/Draymond/McGee (71:27 minutes played)
- Cook/Klay/Durant/Draymond/Looney (49:13 mp)
- Cook/Klay/Durant/Draymond/Pachulia (45:51 mp)

He had -3.49 in ESPN's DRPM in 2018-19. Looking again at his top-3 lineups in terms of playing time, he's still surrounded by only good defenders (Livingston isn't in the Iggy/Klay/KD/Draymond league tho & Jones is worse than Cousins/Looney/Pachulia):
- Cook/Klay/Iggy/Durant/Jones (76:40 mp)
- Cook/Livingston/Klay/Iggy/Cousins (50:53 mp)
- Cook/Klay/Iggy/Durant/Looney (34:46 mp)

What I get from the way Kerr used him, is that to make him a viable rotation option in the Playoffs you need to surround him with elite defense & adequate playmaking and only ask him to shoot. I think the Lakers, as currently constructed, don't have enough elite defenders & playmakers to be able to afford him being on the court in the last 4-5 minutes. That's the main reason I wouldn't prefer to have him on the court over others like Pope or Bradley, even though he's clearly a better shooter. If it's the closing lineup, then I pretty much need all 5 of my guys to be able to pull their weight both offensively and defensively. This isn't 2016 or 2013 when LeBron could do everything for them offensively by scoring or assisting,guard the opponent's superstar & at the same time almost play free safety to cover up other minor defensive weaknesses the team might have. If Pope or Bradley can shoot around 35% and at least play average (or slightly above-average) defense, then they have my vote of confidence as of now. That can change if Kuzma appears significantly improved on defense & LeBron proves again he can play really good defense for 5 minutes each game. In that case, given the fact that Green-Kuzma-LeBron-Davis would easily be a very good defensive 4-man lineup, I would have the ability to play Cook safely.

[Codeblack]

Healthy LA is possibly a finals bound team no doubt

[lazybatman]

Nice vid and channel

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