RealGM Top 25 Player Poll-#6 2019-20

[iggymcfrack]

Tough vote this time, but went with AD. I think he is higher risk higher reward than Jokic and Embiid so this could also blow up in my face.

I agree he has a higher ceiling, but is he really that high of a risk? He basically has a 5 season track record of being a pretty elite player already and I definitely wouldn’t say he’s a bigger injury risk than Embiid. I mean what’s his downside really? Other than injury, what’s his worst-case scenario this season? Can you really imagine him being worse than like the 9th best player in the NBA?

I think his injury risk is a real issue and I would also say I'm not convinced yet the Lakers will create an optimal environment for him to play well right away. I think he might struggle out of the gate and take months to start to play on a more dominant level. I'm still pretty high on him obviously to vote him the way I did though.

Well like I said I can definitely see him being an injury risk relative to say Jokic, but not compared to Embiid. He averaged 68 games a season prior to this year when he was having issues with management and had played 75 games in back-to-back seasons prior to this one. He’s also played on every playoff game for which he’s been eligible.

I’m curious why you question his fit with the Lakers. He seems like an absolutely ideal fit next to LeBron as far as I can see. As someone who’s a big scorer who has difficulty creating his own shot I would see him thriving next to an elite playmaker in LeBron. For all the talk about LeBron possibly squeezing out a third star, he’s always been very generous to an elite second scorer (see Kyrie in Cleveland or Wade when he went to Miami).

Again, I liked your post overall. Just wondering why it is you think he would have a lower floor than Embiid. I personally don’t see that whatsoever. The only thing I could see dampening his impact would be if he spent more time at power forward and wasn’t protecting the rim, but given how much the Lakers organization has seemed to value Kuzma relative to Cousins (on a 1 year $3MM deal) and the fact that he’s playing for such a defense-minded coach in Vogel I really don’t see it. Would be very interested to hear you elucidate the reasons for that more.

[Bhut Jolokia]

It's one thing to miss a few games, but not to play a single game is a different thing entirely. And Kawhi only missed 22 games last year coming off an entire season off, so 22 should be the highest amount of games one might expect him to miss this year. If you're to take an optimistic health estimate for Kawhi the way we're doing with Durant, you might assume he plays 75 games. I'd say the chances Durant recovers in less than 9-10 months (no setbacks, perfect recovery) are about the chances Kawhi plays 75-80 games.

I honestly, don’t think it will look that bad when we look back on Durant making this list. That is the case as long as he plays at a very high level when he returns. There is some risk to that, so I can see why you wouldn’t want to vote for Durant. I personally think he will play at a top 10 level when he returns. Looking back at last years list, we can see that the lists are going to be totally off anyways so one player isn’t going to make that big of a difference, especially a player as good as Durant.

Here’s how some players played last season, basically fully healthy:

Paul George: 7.63 RPM, 23.3 PER
Nikola Jokic: 6.48 RPM, 26.3 PER
Joel Embiid: 6.40 RPM, 26.1 PER
Anthony Davis: 5.74 RPM, 30.3 PER
Kevin Durant: 4.96 RPM, 24.2 PER

Given that Durant had the weakest numbers and was also by far the oldest, you could make a strong argument that he should be behind all of those players even if fully healthy. I would have had Davis clearly ahead of him and then the other 3 players roughly on the same tier. With no injury I would have ranked Durant somewhere in the 5-10 range.

However, Durant is not fully healthy. Instead he suffered one of the most devastating injuries a player can possibly suffer. Typically a player will miss 9-12 months, then play at a much lower level for the following 9-12 months, then when they finally get back to their “new peak level”, it will still be far below where they were previously. Most recently, Demarcus Cousins was in the running for best center prior to his Achilles injury. He had more time to get healthy than KD, but without any more information on how he would recover, he was given a 1 year $5MM deal, valuing him as no longer a top 100 player in the league. It was no guarantee he’d get better either as after actually watching him for a year, he was rated even lower for the following season, signing a 1 year $3MM deal in a market where decent starters were making $15MM/year.

I’d say it’s very unrealistic to expect him to play at a top 10 level in the 2020/2021 season. In the 2019/2020 season, it’s downright nonsensical. Only one player in the entire history of the NBA has ever returned at close to their previous level, and even if that were to happen, KD would still miss pretty much the entire regular season and have at least a little bit of rust when he gets back. If I were to break down the possibilities, I’d put them something like this:

40%: Misses most of season, comes back at a much lower level when he does return, maybe somewhere in the 30-60 range for the remainder of the season, giving him a borderline Top 100 impact for the season.

40%: Misses entire season, does not play whatsoever

10%: Misses most of season, plays at a higher than expected level when he returns. Is a Top 10-30 player for the rest of the season giving him a borderline Top 40 impact for the season.

8%: Misses most of season, plays at a lower than expected level when he returns. Is a borderline top-100 player when he returns, giving him a borderline top-200 impact for the season.

2%: Misses most of the season, plays at a much, much higher than expected level when he returns. Is a Top 10 player for the rest of the season giving him a borderline top 20 impact for the season.

Given all these factors, I think it’s fair to rank him somewhere in the 50-60 range for 2019/20 I think this is a much more reasonable and fair estimate than your guess that one of the most devastating injuries in the NBA will not affect him at all once he returns and that he’ll be even better than he was prior to injury.

Today’s medical advances prevent a lot of immobilization post-op which reduces the amount of muscle atrophy in the leg. They try to keep the patient more active throughout the recovery (nothing too strenous though) to promote tissue healing. I’m hearing a lot of optimistic predictions for Durant’s recovery compared to some other players who had the same injury. I think Durant will recover better than Dominique Wilkins (way back in 1992), who has recovered the best so far. Dominique returned to perform even better after adjusting and changing his game a bit.

The medical staff of the Brooklyn Net’s is one of the best in the NBA and their same medical doctor performed the surgery on Durant. This is only going to benefit his recovery. The earliest return for Durant that I’m hearing is sometime in February, which would give him plenty of time to play through any possible rust he may have initially. That means he would be returning to a very high level as early as during this season’s playoffs.

[tsirigoj]

HAHAHAHA the other day I was in an argument with someone in this forum that was trying to claim that PG13 is a better all-around player than AD HAHAHAHAHA!

I wonder where he is now?

[iggymcfrack]

I honestly, don’t think it will look that bad when we look back on Durant making this list. That is the case as long as he plays at a very high level when he returns. There is some risk to that, so I can see why you wouldn’t want to vote for Durant. I personally think he will play at a top 10 level when he returns. Looking back at last years list, we can see that the lists are going to be totally off anyways so one player isn’t going to make that big of a difference, especially a player as good as Durant.

Here’s how some players played last season, basically fully healthy:

Paul George: 7.63 RPM, 23.3 PER
Nikola Jokic: 6.48 RPM, 26.3 PER
Joel Embiid: 6.40 RPM, 26.1 PER
Anthony Davis: 5.74 RPM, 30.3 PER
Kevin Durant: 4.96 RPM, 24.2 PER

Given that Durant had the weakest numbers and was also by far the oldest, you could make a strong argument that he should be behind all of those players even if fully healthy. I would have had Davis clearly ahead of him and then the other 3 players roughly on the same tier. With no injury I would have ranked Durant somewhere in the 5-10 range.

However, Durant is not fully healthy. Instead he suffered one of the most devastating injuries a player can possibly suffer. Typically a player will miss 9-12 months, then play at a much lower level for the following 9-12 months, then when they finally get back to their “new peak level”, it will still be far below where they were previously. Most recently, Demarcus Cousins was in the running for best center prior to his Achilles injury. He had more time to get healthy than KD, but without any more information on how he would recover, he was given a 1 year $5MM deal, valuing him as no longer a top 100 player in the league. It was no guarantee he’d get better either as after actually watching him for a year, he was rated even lower for the following season, signing a 1 year $3MM deal in a market where decent starters were making $15MM/year.

I’d say it’s very unrealistic to expect him to play at a top 10 level in the 2020/2021 season. In the 2019/2020 season, it’s downright nonsensical. Only one player in the entire history of the NBA has ever returned at close to their previous level, and even if that were to happen, KD would still miss pretty much the entire regular season and have at least a little bit of rust when he gets back. If I were to break down the possibilities, I’d put them something like this:

40%: Misses most of season, comes back at a much lower level when he does return, maybe somewhere in the 30-60 range for the remainder of the season, giving him a borderline Top 100 impact for the season.

40%: Misses entire season, does not play whatsoever

10%: Misses most of season, plays at a higher than expected level when he returns. Is a Top 10-30 player for the rest of the season giving him a borderline Top 40 impact for the season.

8%: Misses most of season, plays at a lower than expected level when he returns. Is a borderline top-100 player when he returns, giving him a borderline top-200 impact for the season.

2%: Misses most of the season, plays at a much, much higher than expected level when he returns. Is a Top 10 player for the rest of the season giving him a borderline top 20 impact for the season.

Given all these factors, I think it’s fair to rank him somewhere in the 50-60 range for 2019/20 I think this is a much more reasonable and fair estimate than your guess that one of the most devastating injuries in the NBA will not affect him at all once he returns and that he’ll be even better than he was prior to injury.

Today’s medical advances prevent a lot of immobilization post-op which reduces the amount of muscle atrophy in the leg. They try to keep the patient more active throughout the recovery (nothing too strenous though) to promote tissue healing. I’m hearing a lot of optimistic predictions for Durant’s recovery compared to some other players who had the same injury. I think Durant will recover better than Dominique Wilkins (way back in 1992), who has recovered the best so far. Dominique returned to perform even better after adjusting and changing his game a bit.

The medical staff of the Brooklyn Net’s is one of the best in the NBA and their same medical doctor performed the surgery on Durant. This is only going to benefit his recovery. The earliest return for Durant that I’m hearing is sometime in February, which would give him plenty of time to play through any possible rust he may have initially. That means he would be returning to a very high level as early as during this season’s playoffs.

Medical advances since DeMarcus Cousins got injured 2 seasons ago and went from a Top 10 player in the league to a bench guy? If the advance of medical technology is such a major factor, why is it that the only case of a full recovery to elite status that people can point to happened 27 years ago?

[Bhut Jolokia]

Here’s how some players played last season, basically fully healthy:

Paul George: 7.63 RPM, 23.3 PER
Nikola Jokic: 6.48 RPM, 26.3 PER
Joel Embiid: 6.40 RPM, 26.1 PER
Anthony Davis: 5.74 RPM, 30.3 PER
Kevin Durant: 4.96 RPM, 24.2 PER

Given that Durant had the weakest numbers and was also by far the oldest, you could make a strong argument that he should be behind all of those players even if fully healthy. I would have had Davis clearly ahead of him and then the other 3 players roughly on the same tier. With no injury I would have ranked Durant somewhere in the 5-10 range.

However, Durant is not fully healthy. Instead he suffered one of the most devastating injuries a player can possibly suffer. Typically a player will miss 9-12 months, then play at a much lower level for the following 9-12 months, then when they finally get back to their “new peak level”, it will still be far below where they were previously. Most recently, Demarcus Cousins was in the running for best center prior to his Achilles injury. He had more time to get healthy than KD, but without any more information on how he would recover, he was given a 1 year $5MM deal, valuing him as no longer a top 100 player in the league. It was no guarantee he’d get better either as after actually watching him for a year, he was rated even lower for the following season, signing a 1 year $3MM deal in a market where decent starters were making $15MM/year.

I’d say it’s very unrealistic to expect him to play at a top 10 level in the 2020/2021 season. In the 2019/2020 season, it’s downright nonsensical. Only one player in the entire history of the NBA has ever returned at close to their previous level, and even if that were to happen, KD would still miss pretty much the entire regular season and have at least a little bit of rust when he gets back. If I were to break down the possibilities, I’d put them something like this:

40%: Misses most of season, comes back at a much lower level when he does return, maybe somewhere in the 30-60 range for the remainder of the season, giving him a borderline Top 100 impact for the season.

40%: Misses entire season, does not play whatsoever

10%: Misses most of season, plays at a higher than expected level when he returns. Is a Top 10-30 player for the rest of the season giving him a borderline Top 40 impact for the season.

8%: Misses most of season, plays at a lower than expected level when he returns. Is a borderline top-100 player when he returns, giving him a borderline top-200 impact for the season.

2%: Misses most of the season, plays at a much, much higher than expected level when he returns. Is a Top 10 player for the rest of the season giving him a borderline top 20 impact for the season.

Given all these factors, I think it’s fair to rank him somewhere in the 50-60 range for 2019/20 I think this is a much more reasonable and fair estimate than your guess that one of the most devastating injuries in the NBA will not affect him at all once he returns and that he’ll be even better than he was prior to injury.

Today’s medical advances prevent a lot of immobilization post-op which reduces the amount of muscle atrophy in the leg. They try to keep the patient more active throughout the recovery (nothing too strenous though) to promote tissue healing. I’m hearing a lot of optimistic predictions for Durant’s recovery compared to some other players who had the same injury. I think Durant will recover better than Dominique Wilkins (way back in 1992), who has recovered the best so far. Dominique returned to perform even better after adjusting and changing his game a bit.

The medical staff of the Brooklyn Net’s is one of the best in the NBA and their same medical doctor performed the surgery on Durant. This is only going to benefit his recovery. The earliest return for Durant that I’m hearing is sometime in February, which would give him plenty of time to play through any possible rust he may have initially. That means he would be returning to a very high level as early as during this season’s playoffs.

Medical advances since DeMarcus Cousins got injured 2 seasons ago and went from a Top 10 player in the league to a bench guy? If the advance of medical technology is such a major factor, why is it that the only case of a full recovery to elite status that people can point to happened 27 years ago?

I didn’t say the advances were a major factor but it’s still worth mentioning. I’m sure people that are predicting Durant will have a great recovery are well aware of DeMarcus Cousin’s situation already. It is usually hard to recover that well from an Achilles injury as I’m sure everybody is aware of already. If you know a little about each player though, like for example, the shape they keep themselves in this isn’t really a great comparison.

[giberish]

Vote: George
Nom: Towns

[sixers4real]

Add Ben Simmons

[GeorgeMarcus]

HAHAHAHA the other day I was in an argument with someone in this forum that was trying to claim that PG13 is a better all-around player than AD HAHAHAHAHA!

I wonder where he is now?

They’re pretty close, not sure I’d use the poll to argue otherwise

[cellphonecamera]

When is 7 coming up?

[Mogspan]

Anthony Davis leading the polls, when he isnt even in the conversation for best at his position.

Carry on.

Worse RPM, less points/rebounds/assists (per game and per possession) on a worse team, and looked like Embiid’s bitch when they played H2H. Also doesn’t offer the promise of continued development like Embiid. They are similar enough stylistically to where I really don’t see an argument for Davis being better. PER? At least Jokic is so different that reasonable arguments can be made in his favor.

I think you could argue consistency? AD was always very consistent on the court, never gets too high or too low, etc.

I wouldn't but I could see it. Regardless, I said in an earlier poll that I don't think bigs have the same impact as wings and guards so I'm still not voting for any big until a few more players get chosen first, PG being #1.

AD's impact numbers ended up being slightly worse than Embiid's because he didn't play defense the second half of the season. The reason Davis' PER is so much higher than JoJo's is because he gets twice as many steals and half the amount of turnovers/100, and it's really not fair to use per 100 numbers when arguing for Embiid because he's physically incapable of logging a lot of minutes per game. You're right about AD being his bitch in H2Hs, though.

[GeorgeMarcus]

Worse RPM, less points/rebounds/assists (per game and per possession) on a worse team, and looked like Embiid’s bitch when they played H2H. Also doesn’t offer the promise of continued development like Embiid. They are similar enough stylistically to where I really don’t see an argument for Davis being better. PER? At least Jokic is so different that reasonable arguments can be made in his favor.

I think you could argue consistency? AD was always very consistent on the court, never gets too high or too low, etc.

I wouldn't but I could see it. Regardless, I said in an earlier poll that I don't think bigs have the same impact as wings and guards so I'm still not voting for any big until a few more players get chosen first, PG being #1.

AD's impact numbers ended up being slightly worse than Embiid's because he didn't play defense the second half of the season. The reason Davis' PER is so much higher than JoJo's is because he gets twice as many steals and half the amount of turnovers/100,
and it's really not fair to use per 100 numbers when arguing for Embiid because he's physically incapable of logging a lot of minutes per game. You're right about AD being his bitch in H2Hs, though.

Idk man, Embiid averaged 33.7mpg this season. He logged 75 games (64 in the RS and 11 in the PS), which isn't too shabby. He's trending in the right direction but we'll see.

[tsirigoj]

HAHAHAHA the other day I was in an argument with someone in this forum that was trying to claim that PG13 is a better all-around player than AD HAHAHAHAHA!

I wonder where he is now?

They’re pretty close, not sure I’d use the poll to argue otherwise

Close-ish.

Not close enough to interchange though. AD is clearly better than PG.

[RunOKC]

PG13

[freethedevil]

vote jokic.