Is Andrew Wiggins Really That Bad?

[AJ_Joseph]

What's up with people's hate on this guy? What's he so bad at? His FG% isn't atrocious although I haven't seem him play a whole lot.

[RoundMoundOfRebound]

Yes

[ThatBoyNick]

TS% 49%, terrible defender, there's a case to be made that he's a vet min level player living purely off of volume shooting and "potential".

[delux55]

He is only viewed as so bad because he makes far far to much money. If he was a 10 to 15 mill a year guy the hate wouldnt be so strong

[thebigbird]

Yes. He could be a great player but he doesn't give two craps about basketball.

[SCTwins]

As a Wolves fan, let's just say trading Lavine over him really stings. At least Zach actually tries.

[cellphonecamera]

Thibodeau stunted his growth along with the trade for Jimmy Butler. Wiggins averaged 23 points then all of a sudden a year later he goes down to 17. Maybe Wiggins actually does better this year with new coach. He showed some flashes and signs late last year.

[taikibansei]

I've posted this recently elsewhere, but it seems relevant here as well:

---------------------------

I sometimes feel that I have stumbled into the crazy zone when reading the responses by a few members of one particular fanbase. Let's break this down further by examining some of the myths in play:

Myth #1: Wiggins is not that bad:

Wiggins' third season is considered his peak year on offense. He was ranked 256 in TS% that season, 311 in eFG% and 110 in PER, so average or just below average at that end. However, that was probably his worst year for defense in the league--he ranked 453 (out of 468) in DBPM, 268 (out of 468) in DWS, and 460 (out of 468) in DRPM. Accordingly, and while defensive stats are not perfect, Wiggins was absolutely awful in every defensive stat out there--nearly the worst in the league in each category. He was also a poor rebounder and play-maker, and ended up ranked 325 in BPM and 461 in VORP, underlining how he was a negative contributor overall on the court.

That was Wiggins' third year and so-called "peak," a year when he ranked between 110 and 461 in the league. His defense has only marginally improved since: e.g., 473 out of 480 on DRPM for 2017-2018, and 449 out of 514 for 2018-2019. As for his offense, last season Wiggins was ranked 427 in eFG% and 421 in TS%, so he was neither "an effective" nor "an explosive" scorer--the opposite, actually. Given how he was a below-average rebounder and worse passer, it's not surprising that he ranked 364 in BPM last year and 506 in VORP. Accordingly, yes, Wiggins is that bad.

Myth #2: Wiggins was once good:

I have posted the stats here numerous times.Wiggins has ranked between 110-506 in just about every advanced stat category since his rookie year. E.g., Wiggins is the only max salary player in NBA history to have never had a season with a positive BPM or VORP over his career. His career totals so far:

BPM VORP
-2.3 -0.2 2014-15
-2.1 -0.1 2015-16
-2.7 -0.6 2016-17
-2.5 -0.4 2017-18
-2.9 -0.6 2018-19
-2.5 -1.8 Career

He has never been an "explosive scorer"--what he's been instead is a volume shooter who rarely (47.3 eFG%, .520 TS% for his career) makes his shots...while giving you poor rebounding, worse passing and close to the worst defense in the NBA. He has sucked as the first option, the second option and the third option under various coaches and while playing with point guards/centers of varying styles and skill-levels. Wiggins' sole good quality is health--the guy has missed only about 5 games over his career. Other than that, he is what he is: a bad player who hurts the team more often than he helps.

{SNIP}

Myth #5: Westbrook's salary is far worse than Wiggins' salary;

First, let's get this out of the way: Yes, Westbrook's salary is obscenely high, and he is very overpaid for what he gives you. That said, at least Westbrook gives you something. Wiggins has been an absolute negative on the court each and every year, hurting the team in the process. Keep in mind that in 3 1/2 seasons of games without Butler, Wiggins has "led" the Twolves to a .375 W-L record, and has yet to lead "his" team in win shares even once (i.e., not even the season before KAT got there). Here again is Wiggins' salary moving forward:

2019-20 $27,270,000
2020-21 $29,290,000
2021-22 $31,310,000
2022-23 $33,330,000

[vamos]

I think Stephen Jackson put it best: "i'm Andrew Wiggins, and I ain't got no heart. I need to find the yellow brick road and go see the Wizard and get a heart"

warning: link has some profanity. do not watch if youve got delicate ears or will get in trouble or anything.

Read on Twitter

[Kabookalu]

I hate to say this since I hyped him up so much before the draft, but yes he is. I've followed him since high school, and he's so frustrating to watch because I've seen so many instances throughout the years that suggested he'll be a star, but he doesn't bother putting in the effort. When he's focused and locked in he can be a superstar stopper.

Watch on YouTube

But more often than not he just doesn't care and will completely cost his team on defense all because he's not paying attention. The above video is the rare times where he will and you can see the potential brimming off of him.

[GeorgeMarcus]

He is only viewed as so bad because he makes far far to much money. If he was a 10 to 15 mill a year guy the hate wouldnt be so strong

I use this argument for CP3, Griffin, etc but in Wiggins case I'm not sure. He's kind of just bad regardless. Still NBA worthy but even 10-15 mil seems expensive.

[miamiheat319]

Yep. All you gotta do is watch him. If he cared at all, he'd be decent. But he cashed out and now does not give one single f

[Kabookalu]

He is only viewed as so bad because he makes far far to much money. If he was a 10 to 15 mill a year guy the hate wouldnt be so strong

I use this argument for CP3, Griffin, etc but in Wiggins case I'm not sure. He's kind of just bad regardless. Still NBA worthy but even 10-15 mil seems expensive.

Only reason why he'd even "deserve" that kind of money is based on potential and the hope he just finds his balls and lives up to his potential. Based on his actual play he should be earning as much as Bruno Caboclo.

[CptCrunch]

TS% 49%, terrible defender, there's a case to be made that he's a vet min level player living purely off of volume shooting and "potential".

Vet min players provide leadership. Wiggins makes the locker room worse with his mental weakness.

[Foye]

He sucks.

[THE J0KER]

At least his athleticism would help him to dominate in FIBA competition... but he refuses now to play for Canada.

[ciueli]

You can't look at basic stats and evaluate a player, it's not the 1990s.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/w/wiggian01.html#advanced::none

The above table shows his career advanced stats. You can also look at this

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/w/wiggian01.html#per_poss::none

to see his offensive and defensive ratings.

To sum up:
- Never had a positive net rating in any season.
- Never had a positive VORP in any season.
- Never had a Box +/- better than -2.1, and that was his second season, he's worse since then.
- Win shares per 48 have never been better than 0.069, and last season he was 0.012, which gets close to costing your team wins just by playing.
- True Shooting was ok seasons 2 and 3, but have dropped since then, he was below 50% last season which is quite bad.
- Even his free throw percentage has declined (mid-70s first 3 seasons, below 70% last two)

For comparison, here's what Jimmy Butler did in his first season with the Timberwolves, just so we know it's not a team thing:

ORtg=122, DRtg=110, VORP=3.8, Box+/-=5.0, WS/48=0.198, TS=59%

And get this, despite playing like absolute trash, Andrew Wiggins' usage rate in 2017-18 was almost as high as Jimmy Butler's! Crazy, no wonder he forced his way out.

In any case, everything here points to regression on Andrew's part, you would like to see signs of improvement from a young player but he has done exactly the opposite, gotten much worse the past two seasons. It's astounding, really, if he wasn't on a long term contract he'd either be out of the league or playing on a minimum contract based on performance.

[KqWIN]

What's interesting about Wiggins is that he's in a weird situation where people think he's overrated because he's not as good as his box score line. But he actually has the opposite situation going on. His box score is much worse than his +/- statistics.

His pure RAPM is not that bad. His box score is that bad.

[Soulcatcher33]

Thibodeau stunted his growth along with the trade for Jimmy Butler. Wiggins averaged 23 points then all of a sudden a year later he goes down to 17. Maybe Wiggins actually does better this year with new coach. He showed some flashes and signs late last year.

Again, that 23.6ppg was empty as hell. He was not an impact player whatsoever. A guy like Joe Ingles (averaging 11.5ppg and 12.1ppg) the last two seasons is a much better player than he was that season.

[KqWIN]

For reference.

3 year RAPM (16-19)

OFF: +2.7
DEF: -1.4
TOT: +1.29

3 year BPM (16-19)
OFF: -0.8
DEF: -1.9
TOT: -2.7

I can't believe I'm going to be the Andrew Wiggins guy...but methinks another team should try to buy low on him. Especially if they aren't planning on being competitive soon anyways. His PPG is not the shining light, but his RAPM is a little glimmer of hope.