Is Andrew Wiggins Really That Bad?

[JShuttlesworth]

I think that Wiggins talent is overshadowed by what people feel is a lack of drive. The perception is that he doesn’t love the game. His athleticism is absolutely insane and when he is on he looks scary good. He has had plenty of big games in his career.

The problem with him is that terrible contract that the TWolves gave him. He is going to be held to that standard. I don’t think he’s a true 2nd option though, you need better players than Wiggins if you want to compete.

[illuminati666]

Honestly, I really think he needs a change of scenery. Feel like the Wolves organization and leniancy is not gonna get the best out of him. I'm not letting him off the hook, but if he goes to a decent team, they might be able to make something out of him. He's still very young and got the tools.

[Duke4life831]

Yes he's really that bad. Ask yourself this, what aspect of basketball is he good at, or hell what aspect of basketball is he at least average at?

Does he facilitate? No he has a career 2.2 apg and never had more than 2.5 a game
Does he rebound? Nope, even with his size and athleticism, he has a career average under 5 per game.
Does he play defense? Nope. Essentially every metric shows him being a terrible defender and the eye test for most people back this up.
Well he scores 19ppg for his career. Yes but it takes over 16 shots to get it and has a career TS% of 52%.

Here is the biggest thing in my opinion. He has showed zero signs of improvement since high school. He is the identical player. His 4th and 5th seasons were both worse than his rookie year. His 5th year was easily his worst of his career.

He also doesn't just get called out because of his contract is huge. Anything other than a vet minimum would be a bad contract for him. If he wasn't the #1 pick and if so many just assumed he had all this untapped potential because he was athletic. His career would be similar to Stanley Johnson. He would be on maybe his last leg getting some cheap contract to come off the end of the bench.

[Clyde Frazier]

It's not hate, it's just a harsh reality. He's somehow gotten *worse* as he's gotten older. His contract is also absurd.

Season Salary
19-20 $27,270,000
20-21 $29,290,000
21-22 $31,310,000
22-23 $33,330,000

[mademan]

For reference.

3 year RAPM (16-19)

OFF: +2.7
DEF: -1.4
TOT: +1.29

3 year BPM (16-19)
OFF: -0.8
DEF: -1.9
TOT: -2.7

I can't believe I'm going to be the Andrew Wiggins guy...but methinks another team should try to buy low on him. Especially if they aren't planning on being competitive soon anyways. His PPG is not the shining light, but his RAPM is a little glimmer of hope.

The man makes the max for 4 more years. There's no such thing as buying low on him.

[PlatinumState]

He's really gonna coast the rest of his career isnt he?
Shame.......I had high hopes when he got to the league

[KqWIN]

For reference.

3 year RAPM (16-19)

OFF: +2.7
DEF: -1.4
TOT: +1.29

3 year BPM (16-19)
OFF: -0.8
DEF: -1.9
TOT: -2.7

I can't believe I'm going to be the Andrew Wiggins guy...but methinks another team should try to buy low on him. Especially if they aren't planning on being competitive soon anyways. His PPG is not the shining light, but his RAPM is a little glimmer of hope.

The man makes the max for 4 more years. There's no such thing as buying low on him.

There's a lot of bad teams with bad contracts I'm sure they'd like to get rid of as well.

[kobyz]

I can see him gaining experience and having Jason Richardson type career

[og15]

For reference.

3 year RAPM (16-19)

OFF: +2.7
DEF: -1.4
TOT: +1.29

3 year BPM (16-19)
OFF: -0.8
DEF: -1.9
TOT: -2.7

I can't believe I'm going to be the Andrew Wiggins guy...but methinks another team should try to buy low on him. Especially if they aren't planning on being competitive soon anyways. His PPG is not the shining light, but his RAPM is a little glimmer of hope.

The man makes the max for 4 more years. There's no such thing as buying low on him.

There's a lot of bad teams with bad contracts I'm sure they'd like to get rid of as well.

For sure, but depends on how long those bad contracts are. Have any thoughts on players that fit the bill?

[Optms]

He is only viewed as so bad because he makes far far to much money. If he was a 10 to 15 mill a year guy the hate wouldnt be so strong

Not so fast.

Given his production, anything beyond 10+ mill seems like a huge overpay.

He can't shoot 3's and literately does nothing else well but be a mediocre scorer from within the 3 point line. Rebounding, passing, defense, etc. He's straight up trash.

I would feel comfortable paying him at about 5-8 million per just for his volume scoring off the bench. But there are better options even for bench scorers.

[CptCrunch]

Checkout Wiggins' abomination of shooting here:
https://stats.nba.com/player/203952/shots-dash/

1. Wiggins is completely incapable of scoring at a starter level.

Shots not within the restrict circle: Wiggins shoots 23.8% when guard very tightly (0-2 feet), 26.5% when tightly (2-4), 35.6% open (4-6), 37.3% wide open (6+).

Shots within 10 feet of basket, for same distances, 37.4% (0-2), 43.7% (2-4), 39.4% (4-6), 40.3% (6+). The dude is shooting 40.3% within 10 feet of the basket when left nearly wide open.

2. Wiggins is completely unable to dribble the ball and create his own shot.

The more he dribbles, the worse his shooting gets. Goes does to 39.2 and 38.1% for 3-6 and 7+ dribbles. He actually does this on 37% of his shots. Just dribbling for no reason because we know he can't pass worth a damn.

Of course, once a blue moon, Wiggins scores 30 points on 55% TS, his fan starts celebrating and gloating about the GOATness of maple Jordan. I have been railing on Wiggins since draft day. It is only during this past two years that the casual observer on these forums have come to realize how awful of a player (and prospect) he is/was.

(Oh, he isn't clutch either. 23.1% shooting with 0-4s left on the clock.)

[Neutral 123]

Everyone has already said it. Worst part is there is no coaching caring. That's all on him. He has to want it. No scenery change or coach pushing can change that.

He's made enough money so there's no real consequence here. If he's out of the league I'm not sure he'd even care.

[Leslie Forman]

Thibodeau stunted his growth along with the trade for Jimmy Butler.

Nope. Thibodeau saw how useless his empty ass stats were and that's why he traded for Jimmy Butler.

No IQ, no ballhandling, no passing, no defense, no rebounding. He only scores so much because he literally has no idea what to do with the ball when he gets it except to shoot it. And because of his poor ballhandling and IQ, he isn't even good at that.

For reference.

3 year RAPM (16-19)

OFF: +2.7
DEF: -1.4
TOT: +1.29

3 year BPM (16-19)
OFF: -0.8
DEF: -1.9
TOT: -2.7

I can't believe I'm going to be the Andrew Wiggins guy...but methinks another team should try to buy low on him. Especially if they aren't planning on being competitive soon anyways. His PPG is not the shining light, but his RAPM is a little glimmer of hope.

Nah I'm pretty sure that just shows how useless RAPM is. And I'm not sure why you're bringing up his BPM because that is an awful BPM for a minimum guy, let alone a maximum guy. That's literally one of the worst BPMs among rotation players in the league.

[Prospect Dong]

He is only viewed as so bad because he makes far far to much money. If he was a 10 to 15 mill a year guy the hate wouldnt be so strong

Not so fast.

Given his production, anything beyond 10+ mill seems like a huge overpay.

He can't shoot 3's and literately does nothing else well but be a mediocre scorer from within the 3 point line. Rebounding, passing, defense, etc. He's straight up trash.

I would feel comfortable paying him at about 5-8 million per just for his volume scoring off the bench. But there are better options even for bench scorers.

Here's Wiggins vs TJ Warren:

https://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.fcgi?request=1&sum=0&player_id1_hint=Andrew+Wiggins&player_id1_select=Andrew+Wiggins&y1=2019&player_id1=wiggian01&idx=players&player_id2_hint=T.J.+Warren&player_id2_select=T.J.+Warren&y2=2019&player_id2=warretj01&idx=players

Warren earns $11, $12 & $13m over the next three seasons, and was just judged to have very slightly negative value at that price - so say he's worth around $10.5m per.

Warren's older than Wiggins, and seemingly an ever worse defender, and he's gradually improved from an inefficient midrange scorer who does nothing else well, to an efficient shooter who does nothing else well. His non-shooting numbers look pretty similar to Wiggins', with Wiggins' assists offset by his extra turnovers. And he's much, much more efficient than Wiggins at the one thing they can both do - TS% of 58 compared to 49 for Wiggins.

So the question is, could Wiggins improve at age 23, though after 5 years in the league, and become something like Warren, who couldn't shoot 3s and had a 54 TS% at the same age? That strikes me as maybe a 50/50 proposition, even in a new environment, and would get you a guy worth around a third of what Wiggins is slated to make.

Ouch

[brutalitops]

Played in the wrong position. His defense is ok now but has never improved his handle.

He's an athletic 2 who's got a bit of a streaky 3 and athletism which he can't use because he matches up on bigger opponents who he's uncomfortable dribbling around.

So unless he develops his 3p shooting to close to elite, or learns to tighten up his handle he's been scouted out of ever dominating the NBA

Age is on his side however.

[KqWIN]

Thibodeau stunted his growth along with the trade for Jimmy Butler.

Nope. Thibodeau saw how useless his empty ass stats were and that's why he traded for Jimmy Butler.

No IQ, no ballhandling, no passing, no defense, no rebounding. He only scores so much because he literally has no idea what to do with the ball when he gets it except to shoot it. And because of his poor ballhandling and IQ, he isn't even good at that.

For reference.

3 year RAPM (16-19)

OFF: +2.7
DEF: -1.4
TOT: +1.29

3 year BPM (16-19)
OFF: -0.8
DEF: -1.9
TOT: -2.7

I can't believe I'm going to be the Andrew Wiggins guy...but methinks another team should try to buy low on him. Especially if they aren't planning on being competitive soon anyways. His PPG is not the shining light, but his RAPM is a little glimmer of hope.

Nah I'm pretty sure that just shows how useless RAPM is. And I'm not sure why you're bringing up his BPM because that is an awful BPM for a minimum guy, let alone a maximum guy. That's literally one of the worst BPMs among rotation players in the league.

RAPM is RAPM. If you think it's useless, no point in trying to convince you if that's your stance, you're not even interested in learning.

I brought up his BPM precisely because it is bad. That was the point of my initial post. People constantly cite Wiggins as a poor analytics player who post ups superficial stats. His BPM, for example, has been brought up more than once.

But not analytics hate him. The one glimmer of hope for Wiggins is his pure RAPM...which is interesting because that's the measure you'd least expect to favor him. It's certainly something that slipped past me.

[Leslie Forman]

RAPM is RAPM. If you think it's useless, no point in trying to convince you if that's your stance, you're not even interested in learning.

I brought up his BPM precisely because it is bad. That was the point of my initial post. People constantly cite Wiggins as a poor analytics player who post ups superficial stats. His BPM, for example, has been brought up more than once.

But not analytics hate him. The one glimmer of hope for Wiggins is his pure RAPM...which is interesting because that's the measure you'd least expect to favor him. It's certainly something that slipped past me.

Engelmann himself considers RPM more accurate and Wiggins has steadily been in the bottom half of the league at -1.something the last three years, but sure…if wasting $30million a year for a guy because of a stat that puts him neck-and-neck with Kentavious Caldwell-Pope sounds like sound management to you, go ahead I guess.

[HeartBreakKid]

He is only viewed as so bad because he makes far far to much money. If he was a 10 to 15 mill a year guy the hate wouldnt be so strong

no, he is a legitimately bad player. he doesnt do anything at an average level in the nba.

if he wasn't such a highly rated prospect he would nearly be out of the league by now.

[bargnanimvp]

It's basically a rudy gay situation when he was being overpaid, he just is not worth the money he is on. He isn't a horrible player he just is not a star player and should not be making over like 10-15 mil a year.

[KqWIN]

RAPM is RAPM. If you think it's useless, no point in trying to convince you if that's your stance, you're not even interested in learning.

I brought up his BPM precisely because it is bad. That was the point of my initial post. People constantly cite Wiggins as a poor analytics player who post ups superficial stats. His BPM, for example, has been brought up more than once.

But not analytics hate him. The one glimmer of hope for Wiggins is his pure RAPM...which is interesting because that's the measure you'd least expect to favor him. It's certainly something that slipped past me.

Engelmann himself considers RPM more accurate and Wiggins has steadily been in the bottom half of the league at -1.something the last three years, but sure…if wasting $30million a year for a guy because of a stat that puts him neck-and-neck with Kentavious Caldwell-Pope sounds like sound management to you, go ahead I guess.

Sure, but statistics are not here to read like gospel. You should always consider the context, and this is the context. Wiggins has stats that indicate that he's a very poor player...but his lineup data is actually not bad. This is the opposite story of what people put into his narrative.

It's interesting, that's all. There's a whole lot of people here appealing to analytic authority...which is fine. But let's get the story straight here.