Political Roundtable Part XXVI

[dckingsfan]

Yes, dude, people self-identify in a number of wild and creative ways. They still vote one way.

They didn't in 2016, no?

Of course they did.

Again, Hillary lost because people didn't turn out - not because Independents turned on her, and she was still +3 million in the popular vote. If we maximize voter turnout, that will only help the candidate that is...more popular.

Registered Voters Who Stayed Home Probably Cost Clinton The Election

Registered voters who didn’t vote on Election Day in November were more Democratic-leaning than the registered voters who turned out, according to a post-election poll from SurveyMonkey, shared with FiveThirtyEight. In fact, Donald Trump probably would have lost to Hillary Clinton had Republican- and Democratic-leaning registered voters cast ballots at equal rates.

The second pattern that jumps out in the SurveyMonkey data: Non-white and Hispanic Americans were more likely to stay home than white voters.

Next up: Younger voters were more likely to stay home than older voters.

Ok, so we're talking about young non-white voters who stayed home and cost Clinton the election. You honestly think they stayed home cause they were mad Hillary called a bunch of backwoods racists "deplorables"? Come on, man.

You realize you aren't taking historical numbers - you are taking numbers when Obama was running.

Sorry, this doesn't prove your point other than if we have another Obama we would crush it.

[dckingsfan]

BTW, if we want to crush it this time - we need Hispanic women to come out and vote.

My 1/2 cent.

[pancakes3]

So what are your guyses' opinion on Trump basically shutting down the USDA's Economic Research Service by moving it to Bumfukt Kansas?

I used to work at ERS and basically it is a big useless pile of crap. 300 economists devoted to studying 0.5% of the economy. When I worked at Commerce is was in an office of 17 people whose job it was to basically cover the other 99.5%. On the other hand I really feel for the economists who are basically getting shafted because it didn't occur to them to unionize (assuming a union is allowed to insist they get veto power over relocation decisions). Good for my organization I guess, we managed to poach one of the fleeing economists.

I dunno. There's an awful lot of government that, from my view on the inside, could easily be eliminated and it wouldn't affect much of anything. But it's such a small percentage of overall government spending also, I feel it's being penny wise and pound foolish to pursue petty little spending reductions like this.

they've shut down two EPA labs, and relocating a third from Houston to bumfukt Kansas.
they're also relocating the bureau of land management under DOI from DC to Colorado.

these decisions seem to be disjoint and piecewise to infer that the marching orders are coming from Trump directly. more likely it's the result of ppl that Trump's appointed with specific ties to whatever industry a particular agency is tasked to oversee, and then those appointees acting on their own to downsize whatever office they can get away with to better serve their private sector ties.

The immigration stuff is done out loud bc it's part of his platform.

Trump's environmental lackeys seem especially adept at dismantling the system from within compared to others (HUD, Ed, etc) probably because of the money involved.


https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/453782-epa-halts-surprise-inspections-of-power-chemical-plants

[pancakes3]

Also, to be clear, what Dems were saying to be a non-issue at the border that has since turned into a crisis has nothing to do with actual immigration.

Having people coming into the country, bringing poverty, violence, drugs, and guns (lol), was and still is a non-issue.

The crisis is humanitarian in nature, about how the detainees are being treated.

[verbal8]

Sorry, this doesn't prove your point other than if we have another Obama we would crush it.

Why shouldn't we expect at least Obama-level political talent from the nominee?

[Pointgod]

Let me put it to you another way. Here is how to "lose" the election. Here is how Trump can win the election.

Lose the election:
Come out strongly for open borders.

Don't have a reasonable plan on healthcare (no private insurance option for example).

The nasty secret of 2016 is that President Trump didn't win the election — Clinton lost it. We could easily do the same thing in 2020 if we insist that Americans must be taught a lesson for their 2016 deplorableness.

Have another motivational candidate like Clinton.

Here is how Trump can win the election:
Make it about AOC - her disapproval rate is way higher than Trump's nationally.

Run on the economy.

It is absolutely about getting those that identify as independents to vote. There just aren't enough die hard - I am only a D to swing the election by themselves.

Can you point to a Democrat that’s come out and said explicitly “I’m for open borders!” This is a Republican talking point and propaganda that you keep repeating.

As for the healthcare the Republicans are literally trying to destroy the healthcare system by getting rid of Obamacare. Literally doing nothing and leaving it as it is would be better than the Republican alternative.

If American voters could be this easily swayed to vote for Trump based on these two topics then they deserve a lot less credit than I was giving them.

Did you not watch the debates? Have you not been keeping up with peoples opinions on keeping their current healthcare?

First I want you to show me proof that Democrats want open borders.

And yes I watched the debates. The complexity of healthcare is not something that can be covered in small segments. People need to educated themselves on issues instead of being spoon fed in information in bite sized chunks. Even the most of extreme of healthcare plans from Bernie Sanders would have a 4-5 year period of it being phased in. Eliminating private insurers is about bringing costs down through government intervention, but there would still be some form of supplemental insurance. Just look at the best healthcare models around the world. It’s literally impossible to get rid of private healthcare day one.

[dckingsfan]

Can you point to a Democrat that’s come out and said explicitly “I’m for open borders!” This is a Republican talking point and propaganda that you keep repeating.

As for the healthcare the Republicans are literally trying to destroy the healthcare system by getting rid of Obamacare. Literally doing nothing and leaving it as it is would be better than the Republican alternative.

If American voters could be this easily swayed to vote for Trump based on these two topics then they deserve a lot less credit than I was giving them.

Did you not watch the debates? Have you not been keeping up with peoples opinions on keeping their current healthcare?

First I want you to show me proof that Democrats want open borders.

And yes I watched the debates. The complexity of healthcare is not something that can be covered in small segments. People need to educated themselves on issues instead of being spoon fed in information in bite sized chunks. Even the most of extreme of healthcare plans from Bernie Sanders would have a 4-5 year period of it being phased in. Eliminating private insurers is about bringing costs down through government intervention, but there would still be some form of supplemental insurance. Just look at the best healthcare models around the world. It’s literally impossible to get rid of private healthcare day one.

You watched the debate - terrific. How did that come across to you? My other D friends were literally "**** we are screwed" we need to change the format of this or we are going to get killed. It definitely painted many of the candidates in a corner in that they didn't want immigration to be a legal issue but rather a civil issue. That's what decriminalize illegal border-crossings means. Worse, it enabled the R talking points to which you refer. We aren't going to win on that platform.

And did you see where M4A polls if you remove all private insurance? You might not like that it polls there but...

[dckingsfan]

BTW, a left leaning source that you can read with some nuance on the issue.

https://www.vox.com/2019/4/2/18291584/2020-immigration-democrats-policy-castro-abolish-ice

[dckingsfan]

Sorry, this doesn't prove your point other than if we have another Obama we would crush it.

Why shouldn't we expect at least Obama-level political talent from the nominee?

Any of these strike you as Obama-level? If so, that's the one to vote for. I am still trying to figure out which one to work for...

Biden (25)?
Warren (16)?
Sanders (12)?
Harris (11)?
Buttigieg (6)?

[gtn130]

BTW, a left leaning source that you can read with some nuance on the issue.

https://www.vox.com/2019/4/2/18291584/2020-immigration-democrats-policy-castro-abolish-ice

This isn't an example of supporting open borders, and Castro is polling at 1% while being the most lenient candidate on immigration in the field.

"Democrats Support Open Borders" is a right-wing talking point.

[gtn130]

You realize you aren't taking historical numbers - you are taking numbers when Obama was running.

Sorry, this doesn't prove your point other than if we have another Obama we would crush it.

You realize 2012 had the lowest turnout in 20 years for a presidential election. Obama was not crushing it at all.

[gtn130]

I agree, though. If Democrats come out loudly supporting all the stuff conservative media is inventing, it will be bad for Democrats. Fortunately, conservative media is completely full of ****.

[gtn130]

According to conservative media, Ilhan Omar supports Al-Qaeda and also married her brother.

If she holds a press conference today saying she LOVES being married to her brother and also Al-Qaeda funds her campaign, I imagine that will harm her electability!

[dckingsfan]

BTW, a left leaning source that you can read with some nuance on the issue.

https://www.vox.com/2019/4/2/18291584/2020-immigration-democrats-policy-castro-abolish-ice

This isn't an example of supporting open borders, and Castro is polling at 1% while being the most lenient candidate on immigration in the field.

"Democrats Support Open Borders" is a right-wing talking point.

Sheesh. That isn't the point. They need to have a solid defense against the right wing talking points. Did you read the article or is everything going to come back as "right wing talking point"? You know that is what elections are about. We will have our talking points too...

Please see what is now the #1 issue (at this time) that is defining the election. I am in Texas - it is a huge issue here. Which state are you in? Have you talked to anyone about how they feel on immigration?

Even my most left wing friends acknowledge that this is a problem.

It’s possible that Castro and other Democrats genuinely don’t see that as a problem — that they’re willing to do whatever it takes to treat 100,000 immigrants a month as humanely as possible for as long as their cases take, even if fewer than half of them (at the most generous accounting) ultimately qualify for legal status in the US. Alternatively, it’s possible they believe that most of those 100,000 people a month really ought to qualify for humanitarian protections here, and US law needs to be expanded to accommodate that.

[Ruzious]

BTW, if we want to crush it this time - we need Hispanic women to come out and vote.

My 1/2 cent.

The entire Dem base has to do a much better job of just showing up to vote. Just show up, lol. Maybe the party should focus spending its tv ad money encouraging voting and just ignore the craziness of the other party. I've got the slogan - "Just show up!" We can even put it on free hats!

[dckingsfan]

BTW, if we want to crush it this time - we need Hispanic women to come out and vote.

My 1/2 cent.

The entire Dem base has to do a much better job of just showing up to vote. Just show up, lol. Maybe the party should focus spending its tv ad money encouraging voting and just ignore the craziness of the other party. I've got the slogan - "Just show up!" We can even put it on free hats!

Agreed - I think it may be more nuanced. I think a great deal of the voters don't see themselves as Ds but rather tend to vote with the Ds.

So, they don't tend to react to the "show up" message. That's for Ds, I am an independent and show up when I really support the candidate. That is what I am getting as I am trying to sign up voters. Now, will they show up to get rid of Trump? But I think both the Ds and Rs have a real problem as more and more folks identify as independent.

[gtn130]

They need to have a solid defense against the right wing talking points.

The solid defense against right wing talking points is ***NOT*** to cave to them!

Bernie Sander is a Socialist
Nancy Pelosi is a Socialist
Joe Biden is a Socialist

It literally does not matter at all what policies people are putting out. Republicans are going to call it whatever they want regardless of how accurate that descriptor is. Castro making his policies more appealing to conservatives so they won't call it Open Borders or Socialism is completely asinine because they will do it anyway.

This again goes back to what I've been saying the last few pages: the ship has sailed on changing people's minds. Either you've bought into conservative propaganda or you haven't. What matters is driving turnout among the people who already agree with you. Independents are mythical and do not matter as a voting bloc.

[Jamaaliver]

Independents are mythical and do not matter as a voting bloc.

I live in a swing state. This is an absurd notion.

National elections are won specifically by appealing to moderate/independent voters.

Conservatives vote for GOP.

Liberals vote left...if they vote.

Moderates/independents swing between the two.



Pennsylvania, Michigan, Ohio and Florida -- these are the states where Presidential elections are won and lost.

[gtn130]

Independents are mythical and do not matter as a voting bloc.

I live in a swing state. This is an absurd notion.

It's not. People just identify as independent to feel smart and it comes down to turnout.

[gtn130]

National elections are won specifically by appealing to moderate/independent voters.

Interesting theory you've got there.

*checks who is president*

Oh, right. Donald Trump, the moderate candidate.