Post#1022 » by nate33 » Mon Jul 22, 2019 9:05 pm
Expanding on Rafael122's post above:
Beal is a 7-year vet under contract through his 9th season. He is currently making a 25% max contract.
He has 4 options:
1. Sign a 3-year extension now. The extension will be a 30% max extension keeping him under contract until 2024, which will be his 12th season. He'll make roughly $105M in those 3 years. This deal gives him maximum financial security in case of injury.
2. Wait until 2020 and sign an extension. If he makes All-NBA this year he will be eligible for a 35% max extension for 3 years, keeping him under contract until 2024 but allowing to make roughly $122M more over those 3 years. If he doesn't make All-NBA, he can still sign the 30% max extension, or he can wait another year.
3. Wait until 2021 and sign a 1+1 with the Wizards. If he makes All NBA in 2020-21, he can sign a 5-year supermax with the Wizards in 2021. If he doesn't, he can sign a 1+1 (second year player option) with the Wizards and become a free agent the following year when he is eligible for a 35% max from any team that acquires him in free agency.
4. Wait until 2021 and sign with a new team. He'll presumably sign at least a 3 year deal (giving his new team Bird Rights) which will only be a 30% max equaling $105M in those 3 years. He actually might make slightly less because his annual raises will be capped at 5% and not 8%. But we're talking only a $2-3M difference so it's not a huge consideration. This option allows him to go elsewhere, but it provides the least total money and the least financial security in case of injury.
Rafael122 makes a good point that All-NBA is unlikely next year. Curry, Harden, Lillard and Kyrie are locks, barring injury. He'll have to beat out all but one of Kemba, Simmons, Butler, Westbrook, McCullough, Russell, Fox and anybody else I haven't thought of yet. And he'll have to do so while on a very bad team with maybe 30 wins.
Frankly, I don't know what makes the most sense. He doesn't really have much to lose by choosing Option 2 over Option 1, but he doesn't have much to gain either since All-NBA is so unlikely.
I'm starting to think that Option 3 makes a lot of sense, if he's willing to accept the injury risk. Wait until 2021 and then sign a 1+1 contract. In 2022, he'll be an unrestricted free agent eligible for a 35% supermax from any team, which gives him a lot of options. And if Bryant, Hachimura, Brown and our 2020 pick pan out to be studs, he'll still have the option to stay in DC. But however it plays out, he'll get that 35% contract as soon as possible.
The good news is that Option 4 seems like the least advantageous deal of all of them. And in all other scenarios, Beal will be with us for at least 3 more years, not just 2.