Wizards 2019 Offseason Thread - Part 2

[gambitx777]

I agree!

[Mojo Amok]

By the way. @ridiculo. We have two TBjrs. TB6 and TB13. Why I go with Troy and Bryant. Because now we even have an extra Thomas (IT). It’s maddening.

We also have an assistant coach named Tony Brown who I've heard mentioned on the broadcasts. Troy and Bryant need iconic nicknames ASAP.

[The Consiglieri]

+1 in reference to PIF and Dat. I'd like to hope Leonsis is just imagining that there's always a possibility of a miracle lottery result (though this seems a draft w/no alpha dog because as always, we only rock bottom when the draft's are "ehhh") and a chance to swing a trade like OKC and N.O. did, both of which are franchise changing moves in an instant.

The problem is that unlike NO, we don't have a draft w/a decade based prospect landing in our lap, and like OKC, even if we did swing an epic trade like they did, it would automatically result in the emptying out of the last bits of value on the roster.

So a quick fix is just not possible.

I'd also agree w/Dat, and maybe this comes from being a DC sports fan in enemy territory so to speak (the Lake Tahoe/Reno area these days), I think rosy outlooks generally are a byproduct of sunshiny local media. If you don't get a barrage of positive or semi-positive/hopeful stories, you're less likely to fall victim to the rosy outlook issue.

This is a bottom 3 team right now, and maybe worse. I will be totally shocked if we aren't locked in for a top 6 pick in a nadir lottery result scenario like this past May, hopefully top 4 or 5.

We don't have any depth in case of injury, we don't have any multiple assets of elite difference making quality. People are forgetting that when this team was fully online at its apex, it was a 43-48 win squad. We are now without Porter, without Wall, without Gortat, hell without Oubre, without Markieff and all the lesser pieces.

I've seen teams like this before, and they are virtually always 15-25 win teams. That's 2018-2019 barring a miracle, and a miracle would actually be a bad thing in this case, more than likely.

[dckingsfan]

We should expect twice the minutes from Bryant/Brown this year. If we keep Brad to @ 2800 minutes, that will leave us needing @ 12,500 minutes from other players. Overall, the level of play from those guys is not likely to be anywhere near NBA average. It'll be a trick to get to 30 wins.

I would like to see Bryant/Brown At 2300 minutes at a minimum. Given that we aren't winning this year, I would like to see Hachimura get close to those minutes as well. I wouldn't mind if Beal dropped into the 2700s.

That gets us to what? Less than 10000 minutes of the 19680. You can't have the rest of the minutes be well below average and hope to win many games (unless those 3 were all superstars).

So, I guess I am just preaching to the choir but... 30 games would be awesome. We would have found another player...

[nate33]

We should expect twice the minutes from Bryant/Brown this year. If we keep Brad to @ 2800 minutes, that will leave us needing @ 12,500 minutes from other players. Overall, the level of play from those guys is not likely to be anywhere near NBA average. It'll be a trick to get to 30 wins.

I would like to see Bryant/Brown At 2300 minutes at a minimum. Given that we aren't winning this year, I would like to see Hachimura get close to those minutes as well. I wouldn't mind if Beal dropped into the 2700s.

That gets us to what? Less than 10000 minutes of the 19680. You can't have the rest of the minutes be well below average and hope to win many games (unless those 3 were all superstars).

So, I guess I am just preaching to the choir but... 30 games would be awesome. We would have found another player...

We also have Bedrans who can give us 2000 minutes or quality play. And Ish Smith is fine for 1000 minutes. So now we're up to 12500 minutes or so of competent play.

And don't forget that even pretty good teams still have bad players play a lot of minutes. A decent team like Brooklyn or Indiana is still going to give 2500 minutes or so to total scrubs. So now we are comparing our 12500 minutes of compentent players to an average team's 17000 or so decent minutes. That's still a big disparity, but it's not as gloomy as PIF makes it sound.

[payitforward]

Well, first off -- back to arithmetic class for you, dckings! 2300, 2300, + 2800 = 7400, leaving 12,280 minutes.

nate: however terrible we are next year, it won't seem "gloomy" to me. We'll be paying for the series of horrendous moves Ernie made year afte year. There's no getting around having to do that, I fear.

As to Bertans, he does one thing well -- shoot. In fact, really, all he does well is catch-and-shoot the 3-ball. That he does very well. Pretty much everything else is well below average. He's also not a high usage player. I don't think we get "quality minutes" from Bertans. We get reasonable journeyman minutes.

None of the minutes Ish Smith gives us seem likely to be any good.

How happy we are with our team in the coming year seems to me to have little to do with results. I.e. if Bryant takes another jump, Brown takes a jump, Hachimura plays well, Schofield & Robinson give solid evidence that they can be functional at the NBA level, Bonga progresses well, & Beal is at least as good as last year, we'll have reason to be happy, no matter what our record is.

[dckingsfan]

Well, first off -- back to arithmetic class for you, dckings! 2300, 2300, + 2800 = 7400, leaving 12,280 minutes.

2300 + 2300 + 2300 + 2800 = 9700

Hachimura

I might also agree that Smith won't give us much - but maybe he will be our surprise? Or maybe the Admiral?

[doclinkin]

I will say this on Jemerrio Jones, we don’t have to be in a rush to cut anybody until the season begins. Were even going to bring people in training camp I’m sure. I think you’re allowed to carry extra players in preseason. If he’s as good as all that, as good as Lou Williams suggests, that’s going to be apparent in practice. If you have a guy who sticks to Bradley Beal and shuts down an all-star , Snatching every rebound, and driving offense of players crazy, coaches are going to notice.


In addition we the frothing nerd herd of the public are no longer necessarily the smartest guys in the room. From looking into the team they’re assembling, they have some deviously bright analytical people who are peeking at the problem. They’ve made a point to acquire players they thoroughly vetted biomedically, with psych tests, and statistical modeling to project into the future. While it may not show up in the profile of the team they have assembled right now, I am pretty sure rebounding plays into that picture.

With their investment (as in budget, with eye towards hiring an armada of assistant coaches, from what it sounds like) the Players they have assembled will fail to develop only if they lack the aptitude, ability, or effort to do so. Doesn’t look to me like Jones is a guy who is scared of hard work. Maybe he gets cut. But if he’s worth a damn it will show up in training camp battles and preseason anyway.

[nate33]

I will say this on Jemerrio Jones, we don’t have to be in a rush to cut anybody until the season begins. Were even going to bring people in training camp I’m sure. I think you’re allowed to carry extra players in preseason. If he’s as good as all that, as good as Lou Williams suggests, that’s going to be apparent in practice. If you have a guy who sticks to Bradley Beal and shuts down an all-star , Snatching every rebound, and driving offense of players crazy, coaches are going to notice.


In addition we the frothing nerd herd of the public are no longer necessarily the smartest guys in the room. From looking into the team they’re assembling, they have some deviously bright analytical people who are peeking at the problem. They’ve made a point to acquire players they thoroughly vetted biomedically, with psych tests, and statistical modeling to project into the future. While it may not show up in the profile of the team they have assembled right now, I am pretty sure rebounding plays into that picture.

With their investment (as in budget, with eye towards hiring an armada of assistant coaches, from what it sounds like) the Players they have assembled will fail to develop only if they lack the aptitude, ability, or effort to do so. Doesn’t look to me like Jones is a guy who is scared of hard work. Maybe he gets cut. But if he’s worth a damn it will show up in training camp battles and preseason anyway.

The addition of Bertans is going to make things much easier for our plethora of non-shooting wings. Guys like Troy Brown, Jemerrio Jones and Isaac Bonga bring some real skills to the table, but none of them can shoot. Most teams would have a hard time getting them on the floor, but with Bertans (and perhaps Wagner) launching 3's from the 4 and 5 spots, we can make it work.

[payitforward]

Well, first off -- back to arithmetic class for you, dckings! 2300, 2300, + 2800 = 7400, leaving 12,280 minutes.

2300 + 2300 + 2300 + 2800 = 9700

Hachimura

I might also agree that Smith won't give us much - but maybe he will be our surprise? Or maybe the Admiral?

Duh -- sorry!

Ish Smith was actually pretty good in 2016-17 & 2017-18. If he returns to that level, he'll be more than fine. But... he was terrible last year & in most other years of his now quite long nba career. I wouldn't expect much from him.

[doclinkin]

The addition of Bertans is going to make things much easier for our plethora of non-shooting wings. Guys like Troy Brown, Jemerrio Jones and Isaac Bonga bring some real skills to the table, but none of them can shoot. Most teams would have a hard time getting them on the floor, but with Bertans (and perhaps Wagner) launching 3's from the 4 and 5 spots, we can make it work.

Looking at Bryant’s ease and comfort hitting the three in the Rico Hines open run footage, we can maybe add him to that list as well. Just smooth with no hitch or hesitation.

[dckingsfan]

I also expect a huge jump in Brown's 3 point percentage toward the end of the year.

[gambitx777]

https://youtu.be/kqrno0F3anE

Sent from my SM-G965U1 using RealGM mobile app

[FAH1223]

Watch on YouTube

[Dark Faze]

I don't get why we think John won't play at all next year. It's not good to spend 1.5 seasons away from the game AT ALL. It will be 12 months at the all-star break. Let him come off the bench, experience the game a little bit, have some ups and downs and shake off some rust. Paul George came back from his injury and played 6 effing games. But those 6 games were huge for him mentally.

You definitely want to see the court a little bit. Gives him much more of an understanding of what he needs to work on next offseason.

[FAH1223]

I don't get why we think John won't play at all next year. It's not good to spend 1.5 seasons away from the game AT ALL. It will be 12 months at the all-star break. Let him come off the bench, experience the game a little bit, have some ups and downs and shake off some rust. Paul George came back from his injury and played 6 effing games. But those 6 games were huge for him mentally.

You definitely want to see the court a little bit. Gives him much more of an understanding of what he needs to work on next offseason.

I agree. I think John should play in March and April to shake off the rust, make mistakes, and adjust to his new reality with his recovered Achilles and heel. He's going to be cleared to practice and full contact by then anyway.

That would be like the last 10-20 games of the season.

[DCZards]

I don't get why we think John won't play at all next year. It's not good to spend 1.5 seasons away from the game AT ALL. It will be 12 months at the all-star break. Let him come off the bench, experience the game a little bit, have some ups and downs and shake off some rust. Paul George came back from his injury and played 6 effing games. But those 6 games were huge for him mentally.

You definitely want to see the court a little bit. Gives him much more of an understanding of what he needs to work on next offseason.

It's all about John's health. If there is any possibility that Wall sitting out the whole season is in the best interest of his full recovery then you have to do it. I'm not all that hung up on him coming back to play a handful of games in the last month of the season simply to shake off some rust. I'm more concerned about JW's long-term health.

It's not like John is going to be completely "away from the game." I'm sure he'll be practicing with the team by the end of next season if his health allows it, and that he'll be working on those aspects of his game that need strengthening...like his 3pt shooting.

I'm curious as to how you know playing those 6 games were huge for Paul George "mentally."

[Illmatic12]

I don't get why we think John won't play at all next year. It's not good to spend 1.5 seasons away from the game AT ALL. It will be 12 months at the all-star break. Let him come off the bench, experience the game a little bit, have some ups and downs and shake off some rust. Paul George came back from his injury and played 6 effing games. But those 6 games were huge for him mentally.

You definitely want to see the court a little bit. Gives him much more of an understanding of what he needs to work on next offseason.

It's all about John's health. If there is any possibility that Wall sitting out the whole season is in the best interest of his full recovery then you have to do it. I'm not all that hung up on him coming back to play a handful of games in the last month of the season simply to shake off some rust. I'm more concerned about JW's long-term health.

It's not like John is going to be completely "away from the game." I'm sure he'll be practicing with the team by the end of next season if his health allows it, and that he'll be working on those aspects of his game that need strengthening...like his 3pt shooting.

I'm curious as to how you know playing those 6 games were huge for Paul George "mentally."

I remember reading Paul George saying something similar.

The idea is that these guys are so competitive , being away from the court this long is so painful for them on the inside. I know this is eating at John every day.

If John comes back towards the end of the season, ideally they just have him play in a few home games, he will get such a loud standing ovation and so much support from around the league that I think it will be great for him and he can take that as momentum heading into his offseason.

He can still be physically active without playing, I agree. But I think from a mental standpoint , being able to touch the hardwood and hear the crowd will really get his competitive juices flowing and almost feel like a reward for everything he’s endured the past ~12 months.


Edit: obviously, they have to keep up the front that he won’t play in order to be awarded the DPE

[dckingsfan]

Miles surgery can't really help, can it?

[DCZards]

Miles surgery can't really help, can it?

This is the stress fracture that shortened C.J.'s 2018-19 season. Probably best to take care of it now. Sounds like a minor surgery.

"Our medical team has done a fantastic job of proactively diagnosing C.J.’s condition and establishing a treatment protocol,” new Wizards GM Tommy Sheppard said in a statement. “He will continue to be a positive influence on our team as he works through his rehab and we’re looking forward to getting him back on the court when he is healthy.”