Jayson Tatum 2nd season expectations thread

[CeltsfanSinceBirth]

My predictions for him:

18 ppg/7 rpg/2 apg
Shooting will be 46/37/80

I don't think he's going to be as good as we had anticipated. Oddly enough, I think Jaylen is going to be better than we had anticipated.

[sam_I_am]

If Tatum is going to make a scoring leap this year, it will be covered in the blood of Gordon Hayward. Sorta like clearing away Ron Mercer to allow Pierce to rise.

I think if Morris’ 11 and some of Al’s 11 shots per game are divided between Hayward, Brown and Tatum, it is possible that Kemba gets 17 shots per game like IT/Kyrie, Tatum gets 16, Hayward and Brown 10-12. With 3 more shots Tatum breaks 20 ppg barrier and with 4 more shots Hayward gets 15 ppg and should be happy with role and will want to opt in.

I think where Hayward gets squeezed is if he needs to get moved for Brown to get touches.

[Ben-N1ce]

Needs to raise his FT attempts. Period. That seperates good and great scorers. He can shoot so he'll be fine from three but FTs will determine how good he can be. Fading away from players like a bitch ain't going to get it done.

[Darth Celtic]

Needs to raise his FT attempts. Period. That seperates good and great scorers. He can shoot so he'll be fine from three but FTs will determine how good he can be. Fading away from players like a bitch ain't going to get it done.

WE added a bunch of guys who get to the line.

G Williams, Romeo, and Edwards all shot a lot of free throws compared to average in college.

Walker got to the line 5.5 times per game, compared to 3.7 for Kyrie.

Kanter got 3 ft a game compared to 1.4 for Horford.

I bet our new frenchman did better than 1.2 ft per game that Baynes got.

If the whole team is drawing more fouls, others numbers will go up too because that touch foul is now over the limit and free throws. I think Tatum can push 4 a game.

[rmal8852]

There also will not be the specter of a looming AD trade hanging over his head, which I think really impacted his play after the deadline, especially.

I expect BIG things from him this year.

EDIT:
EDIT: I think he is going to take the step up this year. He is motivated.

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“I’m going to average over 20. All-Star. And the Celtics are going to the championship.”

Jayson Tatum reacting to his @NBA2K Rating of 85

Here's the vid:

Read on Twitter

?s=09

[24istheLAW]

Areas in which Tatum NEEDS to improve, no excuses:
-Shot selection
-Getting back and not arguing with refs

Areas in which Tatum improving could take him to the next level as a player:
-Screening
-Become an adequate post defender against 4s

[Darth Celtic]

Areas in which Tatum NEEDS to improve, no excuses:
-Shot selection
-Getting back and not arguing with refs

Areas in which Tatum improving could take him to the next level as a player:
-Screening
-Become an adequate post defender against 4s

Putting on 20lbs of muscle and looking more like Giannis than Thon Maker.

[Slartibartfast]

If Tatum is going to make a scoring leap this year, it will be covered in the blood of Gordon Hayward. Sorta like clearing away Ron Mercer to allow Pierce to rise.

I think if Morris’ 11 and some of Al’s 11 shots per game are divided between Hayward, Brown and Tatum, it is possible that Kemba gets 17 shots per game like IT/Kyrie, Tatum gets 16, Hayward and Brown 10-12. With 3 more shots Tatum breaks 20 ppg barrier and with 4 more shots Hayward gets 15 ppg and should be happy with role and will want to opt in.

I think where Hayward gets squeezed is if he needs to get moved for Brown to get touches.

Usage is the better metric than shots because of FTs/turnovers using up possessions.

Kyrie and IT were ~30% usage guys. Kemba is too.

Jaylen and Tatum were identical at 22%. Hayward was at 19%, a whopping 9% below his final all-star year at Utah.

Each of those guys is likely to want to be at the 25%-26% usage that Klay, Beal, Middleton and McCollum get. Basically the minimum you need to make an all-star team as an offensive wing barring spectacular team success (like the Atlanta team a few years ago that made Korver an all-star).

The two big chunks of offense that have opened up - Al (19% usage) and Morris (21% usage) - offer some hope for being able to give everybody a bump, but two big caveats there. First, Kanter is a 3rd option usage guy and always has been at ~23%. He's going to eat up more possessions than Al, who was not only low volume as a shooter but exceptionally good at getting other guys shots.

That leaves Morris. But I think Morris' role is going to be almost entirely eaten up by Gordon Hayward (in terms of increased usage and minutes) and JB (increased minutes). Those are going to be the hungriest mouths, I think, with Jaylen hitting RFA and Hayward in an opt-out year.

There is some possibility that Hayward defers/declines his way into the Al Horford role (minus the post-ups), working mainly as a floor spacer and facilitator, but I'm skeptical. If he's trying to return to his norm, that's a clear-cut 2nd option, not a Boris Diaw/Mike Miller. The difference between aiming for another max and slouching towards an MLE for his next contract.

My prediction is that Brad tries to feature Hayward significantly more this season, in part to maximize his offensive value when he'll be playing out of position defensively and in part to pay him back for the financial sacrifice he made to come to Boston. And I think Danny will be cheering all the way to trading him at the deadline.

At which point, the 2nd option usage will be all Tatum's.

[lon3lytoaster]

Anyone ever see Jay’s Instagram stories? That kid eats worse than I do

[Feed Your Head]

I was reading the gb thread about Tatum (one of the 5 or 6 over the past couple of weeks), and God damn, I've never seen a poster as obsessed with a team quite like Prokorov is with the Celtics.

I'm sure you're reading this, you want a hug or something?

[sam_I_am]

If Tatum is going to make a scoring leap this year, it will be covered in the blood of Gordon Hayward. Sorta like clearing away Ron Mercer to allow Pierce to rise.

I think if Morris’ 11 and some of Al’s 11 shots per game are divided between Hayward, Brown and Tatum, it is possible that Kemba gets 17 shots per game like IT/Kyrie, Tatum gets 16, Hayward and Brown 10-12. With 3 more shots Tatum breaks 20 ppg barrier and with 4 more shots Hayward gets 15 ppg and should be happy with role and will want to opt in.

I think where Hayward gets squeezed is if he needs to get moved for Brown to get touches.

Usage is the better metric than shots because of FTs/turnovers using up possessions.

Kyrie and IT were ~30% usage guys. Kemba is too.

Jaylen and Tatum were identical at 22%. Hayward was at 19%, a whopping 9% below his final all-star year at Utah.

Each of those guys is likely to want to be at the 25%-26% usage that Klay, Beal, Middleton and McCollum get. Basically the minimum you need to make an all-star team as an offensive wing barring spectacular team success (like the Atlanta team a few years ago that made Korver an all-star).

The two big chunks of offense that have opened up - Al (19% usage) and Morris (21% usage) - offer some hope for being able to give everybody a bump, but two big caveats there. First, Kanter is a 3rd option usage guy and always has been at ~23%. He's going to eat up more possessions than Al, who was not only low volume as a shooter but exceptionally good at getting other guys shots.

That leaves Morris. But I think Morris' role is going to be almost entirely eaten up by Gordon Hayward (in terms of increased usage and minutes) and JB (increased minutes). Those are going to be the hungriest mouths, I think, with Jaylen hitting RFA and Hayward in an opt-out year.

There is some possibility that Hayward defers/declines his way into the Al Horford role (minus the post-ups), working mainly as a floor spacer and facilitator, but I'm skeptical. If he's trying to return to his norm, that's a clear-cut 2nd option, not a Boris Diaw/Mike Miller. The difference between aiming for another max and slouching towards an MLE for his next contract.

My prediction is that Brad tries to feature Hayward significantly more this season, in part to maximize his offensive value when he'll be playing out of position defensively and in part to pay him back for the financial sacrifice he made to come to Boston. And I think Danny will be cheering all the way to trading him at the deadline.

At which point, the 2nd option usage will be all Tatum's.

It’s insane that Morris’ usage equaled that of Tatum. Tatum only had 13 shots per game and given how rarely he got to the line it’s impressive that he scored 16 pts on 13 shots. However he increases his usage - more shots or more drawn fouls - it will be better for our team. It’s rarely mentioned by those who think Tatum had a down year that team was +8 with Tatum on court vs. without which did in fact lead our team. He really was our best player, along with Al.

[Tiny ball]

Areas in which Tatum NEEDS to improve, no excuses:
-Shot selection
-Getting back and not arguing with refs

Areas in which Tatum improving could take him to the next level as a player:
-Screening
-Become an adequate post defender against 4s

Putting on 20lbs of muscle and looking more like Giannis than Thon Maker.

I did not mean to and one this. KD seems to have had fine career without being overly muscled. Rushing young giants to buck up leads to drugs. Weight and strength come naturally with age for some.. Others can weight train like crazy and never get big.

[Darth Celtic]

I was reading the gb thread about Tatum (one of the 5 or 6 over the past couple of weeks), and God damn, I've never seen a poster as obsessed with a team quite like Prokorov is with the Celtics.

I'm sure you're reading this, you want a hug or something?

I"m doing my civic duty to tear down his horrible takes.

[Darth Celtic]

Areas in which Tatum NEEDS to improve, no excuses:
-Shot selection
-Getting back and not arguing with refs

Areas in which Tatum improving could take him to the next level as a player:
-Screening
-Become an adequate post defender against 4s

Putting on 20lbs of muscle and looking more like Giannis than Thon Maker.

I did not mean to and one this. KD seems to have had fine career without being overly muscled. Rushing young giants to buck up leads to drugs. Weight and strength come naturally with age for some.. Others can weight train like crazy and never get big.

then "un" and 1 it. Just click it again.

Either way, KD was never Giannis, but his skill at the game of basketball is probably top 2 over the last 8 years. Unlike Lebron who is skilled, but more physically gifted. But my issue is defense. KD can defend the post, hold the guy away and contest the shot.

Tatum can stop the dribble, can block shots, but he can't hold his position against PF/C or even most SF in the post. He gets pushed around and they use the body to get the shot off. He can score 24ppg the way he is and never be a post player, but to be top 20 overall player and WIN, he needs to add that strength. Personal trainer, Personal chef, and left some weights bro. Maybe he is, but he never posts videos of that.

[SLCceltic]

My predictions for him:

18 ppg/7 rpg/2 apg
Shooting will be 46/37/80

I don't think he's going to be as good as we had anticipated. Oddly enough, I think Jaylen is going to be better than we had anticipated.

Ya these are about the #s JT should contribute ...his FT% hopefully closer to 90

...agree that JB may become the better player, because JB can wreck opponents games on both ends with his size strength & athleticism ...he just needs confidence and to improve that jumper some

[3D Chess]

Read on Twitter

Here's a Globe article I can't read. Lemme just say this - if JT doesn't improve this season, it's time to fire Drew Hanlen into the sun.

[cloverleaf]

Areas in which Tatum NEEDS to improve, no excuses:
-Shot selection
-Getting back and not arguing with refs

Areas in which Tatum improving could take him to the next level as a player:
-Screening
-Become an adequate post defender against 4s

How about getting to the line and developing and using strength to defend down low as sometimes needed at the 4 spot?

[cloverleaf]

Read on Twitter

Here's a Globe article I can't read. Lemme just say this - if JT doesn't improve this season, it's time to fire Drew Hanlen into the sun.

What a great and reassuring article all around. Tatum's Kobeitis last season didn't reflect well on Hanlen at all, and it is good to read that he is apparently getting through to get Jayson to make the adjustments the C's coaches were aiming for all last year.

And I wonder if it is Semi's extreme weightlifting work that made his wrist inflexible. Love that Hanlen is continuing to work with Tacko and that he's going to be able to put him up against Embiid some.

[Tiny ball]

Putting on 20lbs of muscle and looking more like Giannis than Thon Maker.

I did not mean to and one this. KD seems to have had fine career without being overly muscled. Rushing young giants to buck up leads to drugs. Weight and strength come naturally with age for some.. Others can weight train like crazy and never get big.

then "un" and 1 it. Just click it again.

Either way, KD was never Giannis, but his skill at the game of basketball is probably top 2 over the last 8 years. Unlike Lebron who is skilled, but more physically gifted. But my issue is defense. KD can defend the post, hold the guy away and contest the shot.

Tatum can stop the dribble, can block shots, but he can't hold his position against PF/C or even most SF in the post. He gets pushed around and they use the body to get the shot off. He can score 24ppg the way he is and never be a post player, but to be top 20 overall player and WIN, he needs to add that strength. Personal trainer, Personal chef, and left some weights bro. Maybe he is, but he never posts videos of that.

Lots of big guys take short cuts. You get to big too fast It can end up hurting you. Feet knees etc. They as pups got minutes away from NBA finals.

[BillTheGOAT]

I was reading the gb thread about Tatum (one of the 5 or 6 over the past couple of weeks), and God damn, I've never seen a poster as obsessed with a team quite like Prokorov is with the Celtics.

I'm sure you're reading this, you want a hug or something?

Ainge violated his team 6 years ago, he's still bitter. Now they signed Irving so he took it as a getting even thing with the Celtics.

Must be a total loser, how miserable some people are.