NBA Over/Unders for 2019/2020

PrimeThyme · Post #1 » by **PrimeThyme** » Fri Jul 26, 2019 11:16 pm

NickAnderson · Post #2 » by **NickAnderson** » Sat Jul 27, 2019 2:46 am

Looks about right

drsd · Post #3 » by **drsd** » Sat Jul 27, 2019 7:25 am

I'd bet my house on the over (if I was willing to lose it). The only way this team wins 40 or less is with two major injuries.

drsd · Post #4 » by **drsd** » Sat Jul 27, 2019 7:26 am

I love the under on the Knicks. How can that team win 27???

fendilim · Post #5 » by **fendilim** » Sat Jul 27, 2019 9:03 am

Think we go over 41.

Post #6 » by **Knightro** » Sat Jul 27, 2019 12:35 pm

Over 40.5 if Vucevic plays at least 70 games.

If he ends up missing 20+ games, it will be tough to get to 41.

NavalAviator94 · Post #7 » by **NavalAviator94** » Sat Jul 27, 2019 1:22 pm

Knightro wrote:Over 40.5 if Vucevic plays at least 70 games.

If he ends up missing 20+ games, it will be tough to get to 41.

Our whole season really depends on Vuc staying healthy.

PrimeThyme · Post #8 » by **PrimeThyme** » Sat Jul 27, 2019 4:16 pm

NavalAviator94 wrote:
Knightro wrote:Over 40.5 if Vucevic plays at least 70 games.

If he ends up missing 20+ games, it will be tough to get to 41.

Our whole season really depends on Vuc staying healthy.

I feel like there’s a lot more to it than that. It’s not just a matter of Vuc staying healthy, he has to give the same production and impact he gave last season. If we get 2017-2018 Vuc we won’t hit that win total.

Ross also was a huge part of our success last season. He’s going to have to carry that bench unit again if we want to make the playoffs.

Post #9 » by **Def Swami** » Sat Jul 27, 2019 4:20 pm

If everyone stays healthy, there's no reason we can't replicate last seasons's win total. We're adding some depth and hopefully playing an entire season without Jerian Grant and Jonathan Simmons mucking up the bench units, we'll add an extra win or two.

Post #10 » by **Knightro** » Sat Jul 27, 2019 5:30 pm

PrimeThyme wrote:
NavalAviator94 wrote:
Knightro wrote:Over 40.5 if Vucevic plays at least 70 games.

If he ends up missing 20+ games, it will be tough to get to 41.

Our whole season really depends on Vuc staying healthy.

I feel like there’s a lot more to it than that. It’s not just a matter of Vuc staying healthy, he has to give the same production and impact he gave last season. If we get 2017-2018 Vuc we won’t hit that win total.

Ross also was a huge part of our success last season. He’s going to have to carry that bench unit again if we want to make the playoffs.

Well sure. You’re not wrong about the production piece.

I just think given how much usage he’s going to get, there’s no reason to expect much of a drop off in Vucevic’s play. He’s going to be the focal point of the half court offense once again.

I just mean more from a reliance standpoint. The Magic seem deep enough to weather the storm of an injury to anyone except Vucevic (and Augustin depending on Fultz).

My original post did assume everyone would play at least to last year’s capability, which perhaps isn’t wise to assume, but I don’t see any glaring reason why any of them can’t or shouldn’t.

ezzzp · Post #11 » by **ezzzp** » Sat Jul 27, 2019 6:31 pm

PrimeThyme wrote:
NavalAviator94 wrote:
Knightro wrote:Over 40.5 if Vucevic plays at least 70 games.

If he ends up missing 20+ games, it will be tough to get to 41.

Our whole season really depends on Vuc staying healthy.

I feel like there’s a lot more to it than that. It’s not just a matter of Vuc staying healthy, he has to give the same production and impact he gave last season. If we get 2017-2018 Vuc we won’t hit that win total.

Ross also was a huge part of our success last season. He’s going to have to carry that bench unit again if we want to make the playoffs.

Pre-injury 17-18 Vuc was actually pretty good. He just got hurt in mid December and didn't return until Feb 22. The Magic were 14-17 the night he got injured. As with any player that misses 2 months, when he came back he was rusty and out of game shape, that affected his overall season stats:

Pre Injury: 17.4 pts / 9.3 reb / 3.3 ast / .548 TS% / .348 3P% (4.1 3PApg) / 107 ORtg
Post Injury: 15.2 pts / 9.2 reb / 3.4 ast / .495 TS% / .250 3P% (2.8 3PApg) / 98 ORtg

The 3PT shot is a pretty big factor on how that impacts his offensive efficiency. That plus how much volume he got near the rim under Clifford are the distinguishing elements of his improvement.

PrimeThyme · Post #12 » by **PrimeThyme** » Sat Jul 27, 2019 6:46 pm

Knightro wrote:
PrimeThyme wrote:
NavalAviator94 wrote:
Our whole season really depends on Vuc staying healthy.

I feel like there’s a lot more to it than that. It’s not just a matter of Vuc staying healthy, he has to give the same production and impact he gave last season. If we get 2017-2018 Vuc we won’t hit that win total.

Ross also was a huge part of our success last season. He’s going to have to carry that bench unit again if we want to make the playoffs.

Well sure. You’re not wrong about the production piece.

I just think given how much usage he’s going to get, there’s no reason to expect much of a drop off in Vucevic’s play. He’s going to be the focal point of the half court offense once again.

I just mean more from a reliance standpoint. The Magic seem deep enough to weather the storm of an injury to anyone except Vucevic (and Augustin depending on Fultz).

My original post did assume everyone would play at least to last year’s capability, which perhaps isn’t wise to assume, but I don’t see any glaring reason why any of them can’t or shouldn’t.

Once you factor in advanced stats you could honestly make the argument that Vuc was a top 15-20 player last year. He was that good. Usage is one thing, but how efficient you are with that usage is another. Vuc on quite a bit more attempts put up the best shooting percentages of his career last year by a pretty good margin. That's why its not as easy for me to just pencil him in for the same type of year.

I'm definitely not saying he won't either though, he very well might have the same type of year or better I'm just a bit more skeptical than others are until I see it for more than the one season he had in a contract year.

basketballRob · Post #13 » by **basketballRob** » Sat Jul 27, 2019 10:19 pm

I don't think we have to have Vuc 70 plus games to have a 500 record. I'm more excited seeing the team without him.

Sent from my SM-G965U using RealGM mobile app

ezzzp · Post #14 » by **ezzzp** » Sun Jul 28, 2019 6:10 pm

PrimeThyme wrote:
Knightro wrote:Well sure. You’re not wrong about the production piece.

I just think given how much usage he’s going to get, there’s no reason to expect much of a drop off in Vucevic’s play. He’s going to be the focal point of the half court offense once again.

I just mean more from a reliance standpoint. The Magic seem deep enough to weather the storm of an injury to anyone except Vucevic (and Augustin depending on Fultz).

My original post did assume everyone would play at least to last year’s capability, which perhaps isn’t wise to assume, but I don’t see any glaring reason why any of them can’t or shouldn’t.

Once you factor in advanced stats you could honestly make the argument that Vuc was a top 15-20 player last year. He was that good. Usage is one thing, but how efficient you are with that usage is another. Vuc on quite a bit more attempts put up the best shooting percentages of his career last year by a pretty good margin. That's why its not as easy for me to just pencil him in for the same type of year.

I'm definitely not saying he won't either though, he very well might have the same type of year or better I'm just a bit more skeptical than others are until I see it for more than the one season he had in a contract year.

That efficiency jump is very sustainable. It came primarily from two factors:

(1) His continued development of the 3pt shot. This process began 3 years ago in the 16-17 season.

In that first year it was sporadic attempts and a poor level of effectiveness. The second year, the volume jumped, but the effectiveness remained poor. After a 3d summer of working on that shot, it came together. Last season he shot the three at a solid volume (2.9 3PApg) at a good level of effectiveness (.364)

Because Vucevic has been a good perimeter shooter his entire career, this is a natural progression. He has always had a solid stroke; all he did was stretch out his range.

In his exit interview, Vucevic said his primary focus this summer was to continue to develop his 3 point shot. Around the same time, Clifford stated that he wants Vucevic to be able to take +5 3PA's next year. So it wouldn't be crazy to see him take yet another jump in three point effectiveness.

(2) The continued shifting of his shot selection away from low value locations (mid range) to higher efficiency zones (3PA/Restricted Area). This transition to "Morey-Ball" shot selection was made possible because of his developing three point shot AND because Clifford increased his volume around the rim (a shot he's been effective at his entire career).

That "Morey-Ball" transition is clearly visible in the numbers below...but it was only last year, when his 3PTer finally began to fall, that the improved shot selection took hold and elevated him to a good quality efficiency.

(Season) Total FGA's - Morey-Ball FGA's / % of Morey-Ball FGA's / Overall TS%
(18-19) 1354 - 661 / 49% / .573
(17-18) 840 - 405 / 48% / .533
(16-17) 1031 - 320 / 31% / .498
(15-16) 1046 - 285 / 27% / .531
(14-15) 1206 - 417 / 35% / .548

Spoiler:

Shady Franchise · Post #15 » by **Shady Franchise** » Tue Jul 30, 2019 8:49 pm

I'll take BOS and IND under, and ORL over. That puts us in the 5-7 range!

NavalAviator94 · Post #16 » by **NavalAviator94** » Tue Jul 30, 2019 9:56 pm

PrimeThyme wrote:
NavalAviator94 wrote:
Knightro wrote:Over 40.5 if Vucevic plays at least 70 games.

If he ends up missing 20+ games, it will be tough to get to 41.

Our whole season really depends on Vuc staying healthy.

I feel like there’s a lot more to it than that. It’s not just a matter of Vuc staying healthy, he has to give the same production and impact he gave last season. If we get 2017-2018 Vuc we won’t hit that win total.

Ross also was a huge part of our success last season. He’s going to have to carry that bench unit again if we want to make the playoffs.

I was oversimplifying. Don't disagree.

NavalAviator94 · Post #17 » by **NavalAviator94** » Tue Jul 30, 2019 10:21 pm

Shady Franchise wrote:I'll take BOS and IND under, and ORL over. That puts us in the 5-7 range!

Very possible but a lot of things have to go our way. The one thing I really hang my hat on is that we were a top 5 defensive team when it really mattered. Knowing we brought that same group back, with solid new additions and most importantly, growth from our youth, I really believe this team can be very good. We'll see - it's the NBA and everything happens! lol

On the Indy/Boston front I honestly like what they've done. I think Boston is going to surprise some people and I really like Kemba on that team much more so than Kyrie. Losing AL will hurt. Indy has some really nice talent with the addition of Brogdan/Lamb/Warren. I think they take a little more time to jell but if they can stay in the playoff hunt until they get Victor back,they could be really good.

Tough. Hard for me to completely get my hopes up until they can make into the playoffs a second time. Still, I'm super excited.

Shady Franchise · Post #18 » by **Shady Franchise** » Wed Jul 31, 2019 5:02 pm

NavalAviator94 wrote:
Shady Franchise wrote:I'll take BOS and IND under, and ORL over. That puts us in the 5-7 range!

Very possible but a lot of things have to go our way. The one thing I really hang my hat on is that we were a top 5 defensive team when it really mattered. Knowing we brought that same group back, with solid new additions and most importantly, growth from our youth, I really believe this team can be very good. We'll see - it's the NBA and everything happens! lol

On the Indy/Boston front I honestly like what they've done. I think Boston is going to surprise some people and I really like Kemba on that team much more so than Kyrie. Losing AL will hurt. Indy has some really nice talent with the addition of Brogdan/Lamb/Warren. I think they take a little more time to jell but if they can stay in the playoff hunt until they get Victor back,they could be really good.

Tough. Hard for me to completely get my hopes up until they can make into the playoffs a second time. Still, I'm super excited.

True. Just building on what they did last season, a 5-7 range shouldn't be considered a stretch. The only way they miss the playoffs is if there is regression. IMO they're ahead of a lot of teams in the East by simply keeping most of the same roster as last season. I'm hoping they jump out the gate early again this season, but maintain it through the All-Star break.