Thunder Offseason Thread Part Deux: Rebuild

[spearsy23]

That list is far from exhaustive. Anthony Davis typically plays around half of his minutes at center and that spiked last year. Horford, LMA, Capela and Vucevic can all be added to the list. Mitchell Robinson and Adebayo are young guys with a lot of promise. Steven Adams might be overpaid but if you start a scrub you'll get exploited.

... You're now just naming guys who play the position. Obviously it's better to have a good player at any position than a bad one, but of that entire list Horford, Jokic, and Embiid are the only ones who have proven to be any type of building blocks on good teams.

34 year old Marc gasol
Javale McGee
Tristan Thompson
Andrew bogut
Tiago Splitter


That's the last five starting centers to win championships. They aren't necessary.

I agree. If we can draft the next generational talent like Lebron or have the best shooting backcourt in nba history we can probably get by without a quality center. And splitter, really? If we’re going to ignore Tim Duncan then at least give Boris Diaw credit.

If you can't draft the next generational talent or best shooting backcourt in the league you aren't winning a championship anyway. Obviously if the next jokic/Embiid is on the board you don't pass them up for the next Danny Green. But when you're talking about prospects who aren't sure things, there's no reason to Target a center.

And yes, Splitter, who started 50/59 regular season games and 18/23 playoff games. He was their starting center.

[spearsy23]

The point that got lost in all of this is not that we need to focus on getting a center. It’s that if we don’t have a top 5 or even top 10 pick, then talent at the center position can be found with later picks and have really good value.

Of course you select BPA, but in general outside of the top 3 or so picks there's not much separating the guys at the top of your draft board. If you have a center rated an 84 and a wing rated an 83 take the wing. The whole point was that there's no need to focus on the center position, just grab the first available one that provides defense and can either dunk or shoot then don't pay them more than 10 mill.

[ThunderBolt]

... You're now just naming guys who play the position. Obviously it's better to have a good player at any position than a bad one, but of that entire list Horford, Jokic, and Embiid are the only ones who have proven to be any type of building blocks on good teams.

34 year old Marc gasol
Javale McGee
Tristan Thompson
Andrew bogut
Tiago Splitter


That's the last five starting centers to win championships. They aren't necessary.

I agree. If we can draft the next generational talent like Lebron or have the best shooting backcourt in nba history we can probably get by without a quality center. And splitter, really? If we’re going to ignore Tim Duncan then at least give Boris Diaw credit.

If you can't draft the next generational talent or best shooting backcourt in the league you aren't winning a championship anyway. Obviously if the next jokic/Embiid is on the board you don't pass them up for the next Danny Green. But when you're talking about prospects who aren't sure things, there's no reason to Target a center.

And yes, Splitter, who started 50/59 regular season games and 18/23 playoff games. He was their starting center.

Tim Duncan played most of his minutes at center that year. Basketball reference says he’s played 99% of his minutes at the center position during that year. If you have a pf that can slide to the five like Duncan or Davis then it’s even better than a true center.

And you say there’s no reason to target a center “there”. Where is there? Outside the top ten? Because that’s what I’ve been saying all along.

[ThunderBolt]

The point that got lost in all of this is not that we need to focus on getting a center. It’s that if we don’t have a top 5 or even top 10 pick, then talent at the center position can be found with later picks and have really good value.

Of course you select BPA, but in general outside of the top 3 or so picks there's not much separating the guys at the top of your draft board. If you have a center rated an 84 and a wing rated an 83 take the wing. The whole point was that there's no need to focus on the center position, just grab the first available one that provides defense and can either dunk or shoot then don't pay them more than 10 mill.

My point is guys that would have been taken quite a bit higher in years past are not being falling in the draft. Guys like jarett Allen may not be a superstar but he’s a great value at 21. Just don’t give him a max contract unless he’s the next superstar but don’t go to the other extreme of saying Javale McGhee will be fine.

[spearsy23]

I agree. If we can draft the next generational talent like Lebron or have the best shooting backcourt in nba history we can probably get by without a quality center. And splitter, really? If we’re going to ignore Tim Duncan then at least give Boris Diaw credit.

If you can't draft the next generational talent or best shooting backcourt in the league you aren't winning a championship anyway. Obviously if the next jokic/Embiid is on the board you don't pass them up for the next Danny Green. But when you're talking about prospects who aren't sure things, there's no reason to Target a center.

And yes, Splitter, who started 50/59 regular season games and 18/23 playoff games. He was their starting center.

Tim Duncan played most of his minutes at center that year. Basketball reference says he’s played 99% of his minutes at the center position during that year. If you have a pf that can slide to the five like Duncan or Davis then it’s even better than a true center.

The Spurs two most used starting lineups featured splitter or baynes at center and Duncan at pf. It's revisionist history to claim Duncan or diaw was the starting center, which is what's being discussed.

And you say there’s no reason to target a center “there”. Where is there? Outside the top ten? Because that’s what I’ve been saying all along.

I never said anything about 'there'. But 'there' would be any position where the center you're targeting isn't a sure fire star. You can find a 'good enough' center for ten million or less any year.

[spearsy23]

The point that got lost in all of this is not that we need to focus on getting a center. It’s that if we don’t have a top 5 or even top 10 pick, then talent at the center position can be found with later picks and have really good value.

Of course you select BPA, but in general outside of the top 3 or so picks there's not much separating the guys at the top of your draft board. If you have a center rated an 84 and a wing rated an 83 take the wing. The whole point was that there's no need to focus on the center position, just grab the first available one that provides defense and can either dunk or shoot then don't pay them more than 10 mill.

My point is guys that would have been taken quite a bit higher in years past are not being falling in the draft. Guys like jarett Allen may not be a superstar but he’s a great value at 21. Just don’t give him a max contract unless he’s the next superstar but don’t go to the other extreme of saying Javale McGhee will be fine.

Javale McGee has literally been a starter on a championship team. That's how ridiculously low value the position is. He might be the worst, but even if you discard him it's clear all you need is a mle type guy off the scrap heap. The danger with young guys is always that if they're even moderately successful someone will pay them, and paying a center that isn't a Star is a pointless waste of cap that we've seen something like 13 times in our ten year existence.

[ThunderBolt]

If you can't draft the next generational talent or best shooting backcourt in the league you aren't winning a championship anyway. Obviously if the next jokic/Embiid is on the board you don't pass them up for the next Danny Green. But when you're talking about prospects who aren't sure things, there's no reason to Target a center.
And yes, Splitter, who started 50/59 regular season games and 18/23 playoff games. He was their starting center.

Tim Duncan played most of his minutes at center that year. Basketball reference says he’s played 99% of his minutes at the center position during that year. If you have a pf that can slide to the five like Duncan or Davis then it’s even better than a true center.

The Spurs two most used starting lineups featured splitter or baynes at center and Duncan at pf. It's revisionist history to claim Duncan or diaw was the starting center, which is what's being discussed.

And you say there’s no reason to target a center “there”. Where is there? Outside the top ten? Because that’s what I’ve been saying all along.

I never said anything about 'there'. But 'there' would be any position where the center you're targeting isn't a sure fire star. You can find a 'good enough' center for ten million or less any year.

If you think it’s revisionist history that Tim Duncan was often featured as a center for the spurs, I disagree and so does basketball reference. He played both positions and played more center as his career went on.

For the sake of argument let’s assume that duncan never played center. Your argument is that if you draft all time great generational talent or have a historically great team at evert other single position, then you can get by with a role playing center. I agree with that but is that really realistic? You’re devaluing the position by throwing in Duncan, Lebron, popovich, Curry and Klay. Also those teams had stars at multiple positions. I could probably design a team that Thon Maker could win a championship as a starter. That doesn’t mean it’s a good idea. Also, why pay a robin lopez ten million a year when you can pay allen 2.5 and he’ll likely be better? Just don’t reach for him in the draft and don’t max him in free agency. That’s the point.

[ThunderBolt]

Of course you select BPA, but in general outside of the top 3 or so picks there's not much separating the guys at the top of your draft board. If you have a center rated an 84 and a wing rated an 83 take the wing. The whole point was that there's no need to focus on the center position, just grab the first available one that provides defense and can either dunk or shoot then don't pay them more than 10 mill.

My point is guys that would have been taken quite a bit higher in years past are not being falling in the draft. Guys like jarett Allen may not be a superstar but he’s a great value at 21. Just don’t give him a max contract unless he’s the next superstar but don’t go to the other extreme of saying Javale McGhee will be fine.

Javale McGee has literally been a starter on a championship team. That's how ridiculously low value the position is. He might be the worst, but even if you discard him it's clear all you need is a mle type guy off the scrap heap. The danger with young guys is always that if they're even moderately successful someone will pay them, and paying a center that isn't a Star is a pointless waste of cap that we've seen something like 13 times in our ten year existence.

I don’t disagree about paying the non-star center. However the warriors didn’t win a championship because of Javale, Zaza or any other scrub you could have put in that front court. They won because they had maybe the greatest backcourt and and shooting talent in league history. How many teams can play the way the warriors do? How many other teams besides the warriors make their opposing teams center irrelevant with small ball? It’s likely no other team in the nba will be able to replicate what golden state has done.

[Dadouv47]

Sixers had to draft 3 centers with high draft picks in order to get 1 good (more than good but whatever). But even Embiid was and still is injury prone. We have 15 first round draft picks. We better take players from other positions and then trade some pick for an above average big.

[ThunderBolt]

To illustrate my point, take a guy like Myles Turner. He was picked at the 11th spot. He has a unique skill set. He’s extremely versatile, shot 38% from three last year and is solid defensively. He’s also gotten abused by Embiid and a few others at times. I think he’s shown a lot of potential for the modern day big but he’s not quite elite. He’s been a little banged up and disappears at times. He wasn’t given a max contract but signed for $18 million per year. He was 22 when he signed the deal. Do you avoid a guy like him and go for a robin lopez type player if he’s half the price but significantly older? I don’t think it’s black and white.

Turner seems to be worth his contract and could get better. If he prevents you from adding the next Klay Thompson then I probably pass on him. Turner isn’t leading a team to an nba title. However he could be a solid third option and he doesn’t presents a team from winning one provided the other pieces are good enough. If he’s given a max contract, that’s a different story. Just because he struggles against a guy like Embiid doesn’t mean he isn’t deserving of a decent contract. David Robinson got lit up by Hakeem. If you aren’t the best at your position, it’s bound to happen.

Turner needs to get better but I think a guy like him is worth drafting and keep around. When your draft position starts falling the chance of any player panning out becomes slimmer. If we end up at the end of the lottery or even outside of it, there might be value at the center position that’s not there found at other positions.

[ThunderBolt]

Sixers had to draft 3 centers with high draft picks in order to get 1 good (more than good but whatever). But even Embiid was and still is injury prone. We have 15 first round draft picks. We better take players from other positions and then trade some pick for an above average big.

The also could have drafted kat instead of Okafor. Gobert and Adams were also in the 2013 nba draft along with Noel although they were projected quite a bit lower. A lot of that is a wider problem and not a center problem. The 2013 draft is pretty underwhelming at the top.

[spearsy23]

My point is guys that would have been taken quite a bit higher in years past are not being falling in the draft. Guys like jarett Allen may not be a superstar but he’s a great value at 21. Just don’t give him a max contract unless he’s the next superstar but don’t go to the other extreme of saying Javale McGhee will be fine.

Javale McGee has literally been a starter on a championship team. That's how ridiculously low value the position is. He might be the worst, but even if you discard him it's clear all you need is a mle type guy off the scrap heap. The danger with young guys is always that if they're even moderately successful someone will pay them, and paying a center that isn't a Star is a pointless waste of cap that we've seen something like 13 times in our ten year existence.

I don’t disagree about paying the non-star center. However the warriors didn’t win a championship because of Javale, Zaza or any other scrub you could have put in that front court. They won because they had maybe the greatest backcourt and and shooting talent in league history. How many teams can play the way the warriors do? How many other teams besides the warriors make their opposing teams center irrelevant with small ball? It’s likely no other team in the nba will be able to replicate what golden state has done.

The only way to win in the NBA is transcendent talent, beyond those types, centers offer the lowest range of expected outcomes. Having a bad center is not much different than having a mediocre center. Having a mediocre center is not much different than a good one. If you swapped noel and Steven Adams does anything change for us? By RPM rank that's the wing equivalent of swapping Klay thompson for jaylen brown, or bojan bogdanovic for Justin Jackson.

[Old Man Game]

Just spit balling here but it seems like centers in particular have a very high boom or bust potential, because of the key role that centers play in a team's defense and because of how hard it is to project how effective a center will be defensively in the NBA. I remember both Kanter Jahlil Okafor were consensus top five picks all season long the years they were drafted respectively. Neither would be knowing what we know now.

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[Dadouv47]

I'm on board with most people by saying it's better to draft other positions than a center but it's true that big mens are so undervalued in today's NBA that if we can get a good one that was supposed to be draft higher and isn't getting picked in the top 20 (and then we could draft him with our Denver pick) we could get a lot of positive value by drafting that guy instead of an average SG/SF

[thedoppelganger]

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RJ Hampton (hopefully) coming to OKC for a preseason game

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[ThunderBolt]

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[Thabo Sefolosha]

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[Dadouv47]

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