Team Canada Basketball Thread V2.0

[niQ]

Nigeria has a pretty good looking team on paper. Good thing its just exhibition games.

Read on Twitter

?s=20

Oh man, we're facing the triple-double legend Ben Uzoh.

[ATLTimekeeper]

The hockey analogy is a poor one - when Canada goes to the World Championship turnout for the top players is generally poor ( Mitch Marner, Mark Giordano , Sean Monahan and several other top NHL players just this past season spurned Team Canada). To get a roster of 23 players they need to ask 70-80 guys to participate before they finally fill out the squad. Just like the States in basketball though we have so many NHL players we can actually manage with our tremendous depth to send a reasonable team.

Canadian basketball depth isn't quite there yet. The Americans have had massive defections as well, only 1 of the top 20 American born NBA all star players is actually playing , Kemba Walker. The Yanks have such a deep pool of players however, that they are still able to send a competitive team.

When it comes to the Olympics however , ( when Canada is actually playing ) the NHL participation rate really picks up ( they have the pick of the litter player wise, and of course there is massive media coverage and only a short one week commitment which really helps drive participation). Hopefully closer to the Olympics a similar level of interest for our NBA players occurs - we certainly need all hands on deck.

The World Championship of Hockey basically comes at the end of the season and isn't a high profile tournament like the World Championship of Basketball. This is apples to oranges, as the WCB is before the NBA season even begins. It is an ideal ramp up to training camp and pretty much falls in the same timeline as the Olympics.

As for our depth, we have the second highest number of NBA players. We have the best depth outside of the USA. We shouldn't see massive drop-outs like this and definitely shouldn't see the GM's own son pulling out. If a championship winning head coach can't draw players, if RJ Barrett can't get his own son to play, then there's a bigger story here that's not being reported.

[frumble]

Re the hockey comparison, I agree with ATL Timekeeper - the timing for basketball worlds is much more conducive to participation than is the timing for hockey worlds.

Also, participation for hockey worlds is quite low even for European countries, whereas for basketball worlds it seems quite high for the Europeans and Australia, and its only US and Canada for which it is very low.

Further, hockey worlds are very year, vs. every four years for basketball. A lot of our NHL stars who skipped this year have played in the past.

One factor might be that almost all our top hockey players live in Canada until age 18 or 19, playing with other Canadians, while most of our top basketball players move to the US around age 15 or 16, and are then playing on teams that are largely comprised of Americans.

It seems to me to me that there is more institutional pressure to skip FIBA than IIHF, and, as noted a few pages back, once one or two players decide to skip, it snowballs. "If player X isn't going, why should I go?"

And, lastly, in terms of importance, FIBA worlds do matter in that they lead to direct qualification for Olympics and to participation in the last chance tournaments next summer, whereas IIHF worlds have no ramifications for other tournaments (other than relegation, which isn't a concern for Canada).

I am still fuzzy on the last chance tournaments and who plays in them - after the seven automatic qualifiers from the Worlds, the next best 16 teams from Worlds (ex Japan, which get host spot) qualify for last chance tournaments? So not everyone from Worlds will get to participate in those last chance tournaments. Only (roughly) teams 9 through 24.

So, if we don't get out of group, our result vs. Senegal and our classification round games (against whoever doesn't get out of the France-Germany-DR-Jordan group) will determine whether we get to those last chance tournaments?

But I also recall reading that the last chance tournaments will have 24 teams, not 16 (four tournaments of 6 teams each, rather than four tournaments of 4 team each). It would be the 16 teams that automatically make it from Worlds, plus 8 extra wild card spots awarded on a regional basis (two from the Americas). If that is the case, I would think we would be pretty safe regardless of Worlds placement (but not completely safe - I can see chicanery resulting in Uruguay and Panama, e.g., getting those last two wild card spots over us).

[mojo13]

Nigeria has a pretty good looking team on paper. Good thing its just exhibition games.

Read on Twitter

?s=20

Oh man, we're facing the triple-double legend Ben Uzoh.

That is a really big and long forward crop. But who are the decent guards here?
They can put 1 NBA level SG guard out there in Josh Okogie (Twolves)
but who are their PGs? Whats their depth? Ike Iroegbu? Ben Uzoh? Gabe Vincent? Not good at all - G-leaguers, NCAA players and low level pros.

I guess Stanley Okoye (6'6) can play SG - he is a solid ACB level guy. They will be huge if they run him out there too. I just don't see the PGs or the shooting.

I don't know these guys too well so help me out.

The seem to be missing some decent NBA/ near NBA level talent too in case that makes us feel any better.

[steadysoul]

Re the hockey comparison, I agree with ATL Timekeeper - the timing for basketball worlds is much more conducive to participation than is the timing for hockey worlds.

Also, participation for hockey worlds is quite low even for European countries, whereas for basketball worlds it seems quite high for the Europeans and Australia, and its only US and Canada for which it is very low.

Further, hockey worlds are very year, vs. every four years for basketball. A lot of our NHL stars who skipped this year have played in the past.

One factor might be that almost all our top hockey players live in Canada until age 18 or 19, playing with other Canadians, while most of our top basketball players move to the US around age 15 or 16, and are then playing on teams that are largely comprised of Americans.

It seems to me to me that there is more institutional pressure to skip FIBA than IIHF, and, as noted a few pages back, once one or two players decide to skip, it snowballs. "If player X isn't going, why should I go?"

And, lastly, in terms of importance, FIBA worlds do matter in that they lead to direct qualification for Olympics and to participation in the last chance tournaments next summer, whereas IIHF worlds have no ramifications for other tournaments (other than relegation, which isn't a concern for Canada).

I am still fuzzy on the last chance tournaments and who plays in them - after the seven automatic qualifiers from the Worlds, the next best 16 teams from Worlds (ex Japan, which get host spot) qualify for last chance tournaments? So not everyone from Worlds will get to participate in those last chance tournaments. Only (roughly) teams 9 through 24.

So, if we don't get out of group, our result vs. Senegal and our classification round games (against whoever doesn't get out of the France-Germany-DR-Jordan group) will determine whether we get to those last chance tournaments?

But I also recall reading that the last chance tournaments will have 24 teams, not 16 (four tournaments of 6 teams each, rather than four tournaments of 4 team each). It would be the 16 teams that automatically make it from Worlds, plus 8 extra wild card spots awarded on a regional basis (two from the Americas). If that is the case, I would think we would be pretty safe regardless of Worlds placement (but not completely safe - I can see chicanery resulting in Uruguay and Panama, e.g., getting those last two wild card spots over us).

FIBA hasn't at all been clear about who gets the wildcard spots but I wouldn't be shocked if those that failed to qualify through the FWC weren't eligible.

[ATLTimekeeper]

One factor might be that almost all our top hockey players live in Canada until age 18 or 19, playing with other Canadians, while most of our top basketball players move to the US around age 15 or 16, and are then playing on teams that are largely comprised of Americans.

Also minor tournaments like the World Juniors remains a huge deal for Canadians. The equivalent for basketball would be March Madness. But again, I think it's telling that we'd think RJ Barrett would be nuts if he skipped last year's tournament, even though his draft stock would have been stable, but we think it's normal for him to skip the World Championship of basketball.

[mojo13]

I am judging we need to be top 22 or 23 to be comfortable about being in the "next 16" as some top 2 Asian teams could easily be below 24.

They do play 2nd round "loser pools" to determine 17 to 20 ( which would be winners of the loser pools) and 21-24 (2nd place "loser pool" teams). Maybe with tiebreakers based on W/L and/or points. Not all 2nd place teams will be in the "next 16" but all 17-20 place teams will be.

Also note there is a real chance all Americas teams (besides the USA) dont make the 2nd round. Thus we could have a chance to Qualify directly if we don't advance out of the pool. Funny thing is that Venezuela may have the easiest path out of it pool (or PR) as their pool is a joke. Oh the irony if they Qualify directly. Root against them all!


And frumble - you are correct there will be 24 teams in the Olympic Qualifiers tournaments. The "Next 16" from the WC and another 8 that are supposed to be based on regional criteria and FIBA rankings (but as said it is not overly clear). I'd expect it is a window for Slovenia, Croatia, Latvia to get back into the mix - but also a threat to us (if crap hits the fan and many of the Americas teams tank out) as they could pick higher ranked Venezuela, DR, PR, Mexico ahead of Canada (we wouldn't move up our ranking much if this became an issue). But things would need to go terribly wrong for that to happen (but feasible).

[niQ]

[Inklink]

JD Bunkis ripped these dropouts pretty good yesterday.

[frumble]

I am judging we need to be top 22 or 23 to be comfortable about being in the "next 16" as some top 2 Asian teams could easily be below 24.

They do play 2nd round "loser pools" to determine 17 to 20 ( which would be winners of the loser pools) and 21-24 (2nd place "loser pool" teams). Maybe with tiebreakers based on W/L and/or points. Not all 2nd place teams will be in the "next 16" but all 17-20 place teams will be.

Also note there is a real chance all Americas teams (besides the USA) dont make the 2nd round. Thus we could have a chance to Qualify directly if we don't advance out of the pool. Funny thing is that Venezuela may have the easiest path out of it pool (or PR) as their pool is a joke. Oh the irony if they Qualify directly. Root against them all!


And frumble - you are correct there will be 24 teams in the Olympic Qualifiers tournaments. The "Next 16" from the WC and another 8 that are supposed to be based on regional criteria and FIBA rankings (but as said it is not overly clear). I'd expect it is a window for Slovenia, Croatia, Latvia to get back into the mix - but also a threat to us (if crap hits the fan and many of the Americas teams tank out) as they could pick higher ranked Venezuela, DR, PR, Mexico ahead of Canada (we wouldn't move up our ranking much if this became an issue). But things would need to go terribly wrong for that to happen (but feasible).

Yeah, the consolation round is a full round, and I think it determines slots 17-32, not just 17-20.

I don't think there is a realistic chance that all Americas teams (besides the US) don't make the second round. Their pools are just too easy. Argentina is in with Russia, Korea, and Nigeria, and is the favorite to win the group. PR is in with Spain, Iran, and Tunisia and has a very good chance of being 2nd behind Spain. As you note, Ven also has an easy group (Ivory Coast, Poland, and China).

I would be very surprised if at least two of those three didn't join the US in the round of 16.

The 8 extra slots based on FIBA rankings, regional criteria, etc. is definitely an uncertain path I don't want to go down. We need to lock up an automatic slot for next summer's last-chance qualifying tournaments. So, yeah, top 22 or so, as you point out.

[Mattd97]

How far our expectations have fallen in a week. Damned drop outs.

[gundysmullet]

Nigeria has a pretty good looking team on paper. Good thing its just exhibition games.

Read on Twitter

?s=20

Oh man, we're facing the triple-double legend Ben Uzoh.

That is a really big and long forward crop. But who are the decent guards here?
They can put 1 NBA level SG guard out there in Josh Okogie (Twolves)
but who are their PGs? Whats their depth? Ike Iroegbu? Ben Uzoh? Gabe Vincent? Not good at all - G-leaguers, NCAA players and low level pros.

I guess Stanley Okoye (6'6) can play SG - he is a solid ACB level guy. They will be huge if they run him out there too. I just don't see the PGs or the shooting.

I don't know these guys too well so help me out.

The seem to be missing some decent NBA/ near NBA level talent too in case that makes us feel any better.

Why no Gbinjie?

[mojo13]

I am judging we need to be top 22 or 23 to be comfortable about being in the "next 16" as some top 2 Asian teams could easily be below 24.

They do play 2nd round "loser pools" to determine 17 to 20 ( which would be winners of the loser pools) and 21-24 (2nd place "loser pool" teams). Maybe with tiebreakers based on W/L and/or points. Not all 2nd place teams will be in the "next 16" but all 17-20 place teams will be.

Also note there is a real chance all Americas teams (besides the USA) dont make the 2nd round. Thus we could have a chance to Qualify directly if we don't advance out of the pool. Funny thing is that Venezuela may have the easiest path out of it pool (or PR) as their pool is a joke. Oh the irony if they Qualify directly. Root against them all!


And frumble - you are correct there will be 24 teams in the Olympic Qualifiers tournaments. The "Next 16" from the WC and another 8 that are supposed to be based on regional criteria and FIBA rankings (but as said it is not overly clear). I'd expect it is a window for Slovenia, Croatia, Latvia to get back into the mix - but also a threat to us (if crap hits the fan and many of the Americas teams tank out) as they could pick higher ranked Venezuela, DR, PR, Mexico ahead of Canada (we wouldn't move up our ranking much if this became an issue). But things would need to go terribly wrong for that to happen (but feasible).

Yeah, the consolation round is a full round, and I think it determines slots 17-32, not just 17-20.

I don't think there is a realistic chance that all Americas teams (besides the US) don't make the second round. Their pools are just too easy. Argentina is in with Russia, Korea, and Nigeria, and is the favorite to win the group. PR is in with Spain, Iran, and Tunisia and has a very good chance of being 2nd behind Spain. As you note, Ven also has an easy group (Ivory Coast, Poland, and China).

I would be very surprised if at least two of those three didn't join the US in the round of 16.

The 8 extra slots based on FIBA rankings, regional criteria, etc. is definitely an uncertain path I don't want to go down. We need to lock up an automatic slot for next summer's last-chance qualifying tournaments. So, yeah, top 22 or so, as you point out.

I'm not so sure.
Ask any PR fan and they will tell you this is the worst PR team going to a major event in the last 2-3 decades. They could easily lose to Iran (not a bad team) or Tunisia.
Venezuela is in turmoil as a nation and who knows who drops out (Gregory Echenique dropped out last week). They are not that good of a team anyways (we threw 40(!) on them with our Qualifier team) and can easily lose to anyone in their pool or win it outright. Shouldn't China be favored on home court? Poland should be favored over them no? We overrate Venezuela drastically because of 2015. Venezuela used the PanAm games to help warm-up for the WC - they lost to USA's team of "Big East Select" players 70-53 (and didn't make the playoffs). That team featured 8 Venezuelan Olympians. They are not that good - just lucky lately. Argentina won the PanAms with their full squad - smoking the USA team in the semi's 114-75.

But Argentina is not the same Argentina - this is a similar roster to one that struggled against G-League selects in the Qualifiers. Yeah they are still good and are starting to see an influx of youth, but are they that favored over Russia or Nigeria? This is a more difficult pool where I could see of those three not making it out. They are even less equipped than us to handle Nigeria's length and athleticism.
DR doesn't look too good either and has a much tougher pool. And I think Montenegro can handle Brazil.

A lot needs to happen but I would not be that surprised in none made it out - or as with you, I could 2 or 3 making it out. We also have a shooters chance to knock off Lithuania or Australia. One hot game is all we need.

[frumble]

I'm not so sure.
Ask any PR fan and they will tell you this is the worst PR team going to a major event in the last 2-3 decades. They could easily lose to Iran (not a bad team) or Tunisia.
Venezuela is in turmoil as a nation and who knows who drops out (Gregory Echenique dropped out last week). They are not that good of a team anyways (we threw 40(!) on them with our Qualifier team) and can easily lose to anyone in their pool or win it outright. Shouldn't China be favored on home court? Poland should be favored over them no? We overrate Venezuela drastically because of 2015. Venezuela used the PanAm games to help warm-up for the WC - they lost to USA's team of "Big East Select" players 70-53 (and didn't make the playoffs). That team featured 8 Venezuelan Olympians. They are not that good - just lucky lately. Argentina won the PanAms with their full squad - smoking the USA team in the semi's 114-75.

But Argentina is not the same Argentina - this is a similar roster to one that struggled against G-League selects in the Qualifiers. Yeah they are still good and are starting to see an influx of youth, but are they that favored over Russia or Nigeria? This is a more difficult pool where I could see of those three not making it out. They are even less equipped than us to handle Nigeria's length and athleticism.
DR doesn't look too good either and has a much tougher pool. And I think Montenegro can handle Brazil.

A lot needs to happen but I would not be that surprised in none made it out - or as with you, I could 2 or 3 making it out. We also have a shooters chance to knock off Lithuania or Australia. One hot game is all we need.

Good points. Perhaps I am overrating their chances.


Grange tweeting that Nembhard is looking good and "is in serious consideration to make the roster."
Is this even possible? Classes at UF begin in mid to late August. Can a guy miss 3 or 4 weeks of classes and still be academically eligible?

[Too Late Crew]

The commitment of 6 weeks just prior to NBA training camp is TOO long.

That being said, these players are primarily about themselves. There are exceptions. But a big reason they are making a career in the pros is from the grassroots programs and its time to give back. If these programs are all about the .01% earning big $ in the NBA, then scrap them. This is a big difference between basketball players and hockey players.

I give a lot of credit to those that are playing.

I’m going to disagree here. Basketball Canada has long been a joke and most if not all these NBA players are a product of the US system be it prep school AAU or NCAA. It’s US grassroots programs that are producing NBA players not anything Basketball Canada has done. There is no obligation to “give back” to something that you didn’t really benefit from.
Hopefully hiring Nurse is a step in the right direction to giving the program some credibility but given Canada basketball long history of being political,poorly run and underfunded it will take several years of showing things have changed before players start to believe it.

The whole system that Fiba has developed is a joke and you can see the reaction of the top tier US players. Playing in these type of tournaments does not help young less established guys like Powell get better NBA deals and that’s what their focus should be at their age. They have a limited window to get those multi year multimillion dollar contracts. This countries obsession with Hockey how many people tune into watch any international hockey completion vs how many people would tune in to watch Canada play I Basketball?

[VanWest82]

I feel bad for the fans of Canada Basketball who've committed so much mental energy getting excited about this program. Is there anything more underwhelming than waiting years for the golden generation of Canadians to blossom and then when it comes time to represent they won't play? Ouch.

I agree the tournament is way too late and arguably too long. Also, players should be compensated for their time. 50/50 revenue split just like it is in the pro leagues. It's no coincidence that many top athletes from other nations aren't participating either.

[mojo13]

Seemingly a little breathing room with Australia making some weird roster decisions in the back half of their team. Maybe searching for roster balance at the expense of cutting superior players? (the fan base doesn't seem pleased)
Made the cut:
Aron Baynes
Andrew Bogut
Jonah Bolden
Xavier Cooks
Matthew Dellavedova
Cameron Gliddon
Chris Goulding
Joe Ingles
Nicholas Kay
Jock Landale
Patty Mills
Nathan Sobey

Notable outs: Mitch Creek, Deng Adel, and Brock Motum.
Most were not weren't expecting Xavier Cooks, Cameron Gliddon, and Nick Kay. Doesn't seem the Aussie fans are too pleased about this. But not sure it matters too much in the scheme of things.
https://www.foxsports.com.au/basketball/fiba-world-cup/live-stream-aussie-boomers-team-announcement-for-2019-fiba-world-cup/news-story/feb61daaaf254d36a2ee657f6229a427

Read on Twitter

[mojo13]

More on the "shocking" Australia cuts:

https://pickandroll.com.au/boomers-official-fiba-2019-world-cup-roster-announced-mitch-creek-deng-adel-brock-motum/

[Jstock12]

Pretty gutted that we have had all the drop outs. Thought Murray would at least make us competitive with Australia and Lithuania.

If Murray plays, I think Canada has a substantial edge over Australia, and is a heavy favorite vs Lithuania/Senegal. Right now however, I think Australia is the slight favorite to win the group, with Canada being 2nd. Both Lithuania/Senegal have a shot too, I think, depending on their form.

[Hair Canada]

More on the "shocking" Australia cuts:

https://pickandroll.com.au/boomers-official-fiba-2019-world-cup-roster-announced-mitch-creek-deng-adel-brock-motum/

At the end of the day, they will (or can) put up a starting 5 of Mills, Dalla, Ingles, Baynes, and Bogut. Our bigs can perhaps match that, but the guards are much better and the SF position is a huge advantage for them. Not to mention the experience and time playing together.