Joe Biagini, Aaron Sanchez traded to Astros for Derek Fisher

[Schad]

Sanchez is a 27 year old 0.9 fWAR pitcher in 2019 with another year of control and a career 5.9 fWAR.

Gausman is a 28 year old 1.2 fWAR pitcher in 2019 with another year of control and a career 12.7 fWAR.

Sanchez was used in a trade for Fisher and the Braves just put Gausman on waivers and lost him to the Reds for nothing a year after trading for him and O’Day. O’Day was paid a prorated 9M last season and 9M this season to not throw a pitch for the Braves to date.

Sometimes your players aren’t as good as you think.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2019&month=0&season1=2019&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=11490,14107&startdate=&enddate=

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2019&month=0&season1=2013&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=11490,14107&startdate=&enddate=

Roughly once a month I find myself being surprised that Kevin Gausman is not, in fact, 33. I have no idea why I think Kevin Gausman is old...he hasn't even been in the league that long. I presume it's just that Kevin Gausman sounds like a name that belongs to an old dude.

Also, the Reds are one weird ass-team. Gausman isn't a terrible bounce-back candidate (he's getting rather unlucky), but that's really only advisable if you're hoping for him to bounce back to being the totally average starter he generally is. The problem is that he's going to get $10m or something in arb, and paying a guy $10m in the hopes that he'll bounce back to being average is seriously unwise, particularly if you have limited resources as the Reds do.

[LBJKB24MJ23]

Sanchez is a 27 year old 0.9 fWAR pitcher in 2019 with another year of control and a career 5.9 fWAR.

Gausman is a 28 year old 1.2 fWAR pitcher in 2019 with another year of control and a career 12.7 fWAR.

Sanchez was used in a trade for Fisher and the Braves just put Gausman on waivers and lost him to the Reds for nothing a year after trading for him and O’Day. O’Day was paid a prorated 9M last season and 9M this season to not throw a pitch for the Braves to date.

Sometimes your players aren’t as good as you think.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2019&month=0&season1=2019&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=11490,14107&startdate=&enddate=

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2019&month=0&season1=2013&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=11490,14107&startdate=&enddate=

Wait, you mean the great AA let a pitcher better than Sanchez go for free?

no, they both suck.

[Garrett]

Should have kept Sanchez another season to try and re-establish his value. Atkins sold low.

He doesn't have any value. He isn't going to have any significant value in the future. We can almost definitely get him for next to nothing in the offseason, because Houston is highly unlikely to pay his arb figure.

Really, the Sanchez part of this bothers me the least.

Good call bro

[I_Like_Dirt]

Why does this feel like the Tulo situation all over again where he was waived then hit his first homerun on the first pitch of preseason against the Jays and the anti-Shapiro crowd was all in a furor about how terrible of a move it was and Tulo still had value. Turns out he was still terrible.

Sanchez has at least a bit more chance of being better in the future than Tulo did but his chances still aren't very good and a single game doesn't change that. This idea that all these Jays from a few years ago are still good is just so far out of line with reality it's ridiculous. Eventually Devon Travis is going to be dumped, too, and there will be an outcry about that when it happens, I'm sure.

[Fairview4Life]

I will be sad about Devon Travis. **** injuries.

[BigLeagueChew]

Apparently Sanchez started throwing a 4 seam fastball for houston, under someones advice. Is not known if he was willing to do that here or not. He has a few guys that could help mentor him in Verlander and Greinke, but if the playoffs started today they might not use him or Peacock, or even Miley whos somehow still going.

[agkagk]

Why does this feel like the Tulo situation all over again where he was waived then hit his first homerun on the first pitch of preseason against the Jays and the anti-Shapiro crowd was all in a furor about how terrible of a move it was and Tulo still had value. Turns out he was still terrible.

Sanchez has at least a bit more chance of being better in the future than Tulo did but his chances still aren't very good and a single game doesn't change that. This idea that all these Jays from a few years ago are still good is just so far out of line with reality it's ridiculous. Eventually Devon Travis is going to be dumped, too, and there will be an outcry about that when it happens, I'm sure.

sanchez' ceiling >>>>>>>>>>>>> Fishers ceiling

Sanchez' floor >>>>>>>>>>>>>> Fishers floor

Biagini and stevenson >>>>>>>>>>> nothing


a lumpy turd >>>>>>>>>>>> shatkins.

[Schad]

Apparently Sanchez started throwing a 4 seam fastball for houston, under someones advice. Is not known if he was willing to do that here or not. He has a few guys that could help mentor him in Verlander and Greinke, but if the playoffs started today they might not use him or Peacock, or even Miley whos somehow still going.

He threw a four-seamer as a Jay, too, just not as frequently. Four-seamer pairs well with a curveball, but significantly less well with his too-firm changeup. Much of Sanchez's ability to be even a fifth starter rests on whether he can throw his curveball well, and frequently, and on the evidence of that game the Astros seem happy to tempt the blister gods by asking him to throw lots and lots of curveballs.

Which makes sense: they don't really need Sanchez, and the Sanchez of the last few years is pretty useless to them. So they have much more incentive to roll the dice on him throwing his best pitch mix, and if that turns his fingers into hamburger, shunting him on to the DL or into the bullpen once everyone is healthy.

[vaff87]

Why does this feel like the Tulo situation all over again where he was waived then hit his first homerun on the first pitch of preseason against the Jays and the anti-Shapiro crowd was all in a furor about how terrible of a move it was and Tulo still had value. Turns out he was still terrible.

Sanchez has at least a bit more chance of being better in the future than Tulo did but his chances still aren't very good and a single game doesn't change that. This idea that all these Jays from a few years ago are still good is just so far out of line with reality it's ridiculous. Eventually Devon Travis is going to be dumped, too, and there will be an outcry about that when it happens, I'm sure.

sanchez' ceiling >>>>>>>>>>>>> Fishers ceiling

Sanchez' floor >>>>>>>>>>>>>> Fishers floor

Biagini and stevenson >>>>>>>>>>> nothing


a lumpy turd >>>>>>>>>>>> shatkins.

Fisher’s ceiling is quite a bit higher than Sanchez’s.

[Schad]

And given the ages of both, talking about ceiling is pretty pointless anyway. That is generally a discussion saved for prospects with limited experience, not guys with years in the major leagues behind them (or even years in the PCL in the case of Fisher).

What is Sanchez's most likely outcome, by far? A sometimes-erratic bullpen arm. What is Fisher's most likely outcome, by far? A fourth OF with tools and serious swing-and-miss. Neither is exactly deal-of-the-century stuff.

[vaff87]

And given the ages of both, talking about ceiling is pretty pointless anyway. That is generally a discussion saved for prospects with limited experience, not guys with years in the major leagues behind them (or even years in the PCL in the case of Fisher).

What is Sanchez's most likely outcome, by far? A sometimes-erratic bullpen arm. What is Fisher's most likely outcome, by far? A fourth OF with tools and serious swing-and-miss. Neither is exactly deal-of-the-century stuff.

Fair. However, I would say that Fisher has only had 300-350 career plate appearances. Very small sample, so I think he probably deserves more of an opportunity. Sanchez has had more than enough opportunities.

[BigLeagueChew]

Fisher has some strange reverse mlb splits as a left handed batter:

VS RHP .173 .256 .338.594
vs LHP .295 .357 .443 .800

Before today ^ and a homerun off Mckay this afternoon.

[manjusaka]

It is just one great start by Sanchez, let’s see if he can keep it up. If he does with the Astros, we will need to revisit our ability of developing players.

[dagger]

Fisher was remarkably true to form today - a homer and 3K

[agkagk]

Why does this feel like the Tulo situation all over again where he was waived then hit his first homerun on the first pitch of preseason against the Jays and the anti-Shapiro crowd was all in a furor about how terrible of a move it was and Tulo still had value. Turns out he was still terrible.

Sanchez has at least a bit more chance of being better in the future than Tulo did but his chances still aren't very good and a single game doesn't change that. This idea that all these Jays from a few years ago are still good is just so far out of line with reality it's ridiculous. Eventually Devon Travis is going to be dumped, too, and there will be an outcry about that when it happens, I'm sure.

sanchez' ceiling >>>>>>>>>>>>> Fishers ceiling

Sanchez' floor >>>>>>>>>>>>>> Fishers floor

Biagini and stevenson >>>>>>>>>>> nothing


a lumpy turd >>>>>>>>>>>> shatkins.

Fisher’s ceiling is quite a bit higher than Sanchez’s.

Realistic ceiling.

[Schad]

Realistic ceiling.

How do people look at Sanchez and think that his realistic ceiling is as a good starter? That is, at this point, a possibility but a very remote one; he isn't someone just getting his feet wet, he has 577 innings at the major league level and nearly 1000 as a professional, and he still can't throw the ball where he wants it to go with any regularity.

Nor can he get people to bail him out: of the 130 pitchers with 500+ innings over the past six seasons, only 3 get hitters to chase less, and more than 85% of them get more swinging strikes. So, he's a guy that lacks the ability to throw the ball where he wants it, who can't get people to chase when he fails to hit his location, and whose pitches get turned around pretty regularly. Also, his fastball is now closer to average than elite (in velocity; by results, it's one of the worst fastballs in baseball over the past couple seasons), and throwing his best (read: only league-average-or-better) pitch causes him to miss weeks at a time.

Yet still people believe that he's secretly a stud starter. I really don't get it.

[agkagk]

Realistic ceiling.

How do people look at Sanchez and think that his realistic ceiling is as a good starter? That is, at this point, a possibility but a very remote one; he isn't someone just getting his feet wet, he has 577 innings at the major league level and nearly 1000 as a professional, and he still can't throw the ball where he wants it to go with any regularity.

Nor can he get people to bail him out: of the 130 pitchers with 500+ innings over the past six seasons, only 3 get hitters to chase less, and more than 85% of them get more swinging strikes. So, he's a guy that lacks the ability to throw the ball where he wants it, who can't get people to chase when he fails to hit his location, and whose pitches get turned around pretty regularly. Also, his fastball is now closer to average than elite (in velocity; by results, it's one of the worst fastballs in baseball over the past couple seasons), and throwing his best (read: only league-average-or-better) pitch causes him to miss weeks at a time.

Yet still people believe that he's secretly a stud starter. I really don't get it.

Prime Andrew Miller?

Or

Follow gerrit coles model; rely on his four seamer and make Pittsburgh look stupid......

[Schad]

Prime Andrew Miller!? Egads, no. Prime Andrew Miller got buckloads of strikeouts because he had elite stuff and people swung and missed, a lot. Sanchez in the bullpen, when he threw harder, was good but still fairly pitch-to-contact. Andrew Miller was striking out nearly 15 batters per nine; Sanchez as a reliever struck out 7.

And here's the thing about Gerrit Cole: he was already good when they got him. He's better now, sure, but in the four seasons prior to that trade, he produced the 20th-most fWAR of any pitcher, and he was producing 3.5 fWAR/180 innings. That's well above average/borderline All-Star. Sanchez, meanwhile, has been really very bad.

Honestly, this really does remind me of the Bargnani debate. I'll never forget it: after his awful second season, a poster said that he no longer thought that Bargs would be as good as he had hoped, but he could still see him averaging 35/12 (or something similar) in his prime. That is: by virtue of Bargnani being a complete disaster on both ends, he'd revised his expectations down to him merely being the best player in the history of the NBA. Sanchez, after years of failure, has been revised down to merely being the most dominant reliever in modern history if he doesn't become a top-shelf starter.

Edit: using pitch mix, K/walk rates, and results, the best I could come up with was "2017-2019 Archie Bradley", though even that's still not exact. A good 7th/8th inning guy, very useful to have, but also not someone you're going to break the bank to keep when he hits free agency after the 2020 season.

[vaff87]

Prime Andrew Miller?

Where do you people get this ****?

[LBJKB24MJ23]

I think the only realistic option is to give Fisher this year to get the hang of MLB playing time + next year for real evaluation.

i mean Jays aren't going anywhere but the fun of viewing and rating the youngish players is fun.

trade has already been done. time to cheer for Fisher to succeed.