Political Roundtable Part XXVI

[JWizmentality]

https://thehill.com/latino/456566-immigration-agents-arrest-680-mississippi-food-processing-facilities

what the f are we doing? how does this reduce drugs/crime?

Well USA no longer has any moral standing in the world. No leader going forward can stand on their soapbox and speak on civil rights abuses around the world. I'm sure some conservatives here are beside themselves about the children.

Guess the place to work if you're an undocumented immigrant is at the Trump Org.

[Pointgod]

I'd really like to see politicians focus their attention on common sense legislation that actually benefits society.

I mean what has become of the FCC? I mean it's amazing to me how lax our culture has become. Trying to watch TV with your kids , and I'm talking during the day , not late night or even prime time, sex innuendo and profanity, ridiculous violence, commercials about ED and herpes , drug abuse. I mean this stuff used to be regulated. I mean everyone is inundated at such a large volume and at such young ages nowadays , no wonder people are desensitized and treat people rude. You can't pump your gas without someone blasting inappropriate music, or drive without someone cutting you off.

It is a chain reaction which is just growing with increased rudeness and animosity to each other. Young people only care about their phones and don't respect elderly. People have no respect for themselves or each other. They go out in public wearing pajamas and talking profanity with kids around and don't care. There is an erosion of common sense and respect of how you act in public. Nobody cares anymore.

They need to reinstate the FCC. They need to lower speed limits and enforce Jay walking, and stop people throwing trash out their window, and make the test harder to get drivers license because many people are on the road who don't know how to drive. And people need to get their face out of the phone and look at each other and talk to live people.

Stop cussing, stop talking about ED, show some respect for yourself, take a bath or shower, build more playgrounds, clean up the trash, stop driving like an idiot, read a book, and have a conversation with an old person. We can make this a better place and we can all get along if you just have some respect for your neighborhood and you neighbors. We are all brothers and sisters and a big family.

Government needs to focus on these principles. Make our schools better, fix the roads, pick up the trash, lower the speed limits, keep people safe, and stop all the arguing and name calling. And remove all the R rated stuff on TV before 10 pm like it used to be. Otherwise we will continue to spiral into a increasing mess of rudeness and inappropriate behavior to each other and nobody will care.

I agree, and it starts with getting rid of the man in the Whitehouse that doesn’t show respect for anyone, is rude, racist and only looks thinks about himself. And get rid of the useless, cowardly party that encourages and supports the degradation of the moral fibre of the country. You once had a President and party that set a good example of Christian values and represented someone that everyone in the country could look up to, but I wonder why a certain segment of the population never acknowledged this. Hmmmmm

[dckingsfan]

i'm curious as to what you mean by "fix the damn tax code" other than taxing capital gains and income at the same rate

Thanks for the question - I guess I was a bit nebulous in my answer (figured my previous posts would carry me through).

The carveouts (deductions are really killing us). That and the payroll taxes shouldn't be capped.

At this point, I would be good removing all deductions (the carveouts are killing us) from the tax code, having a graduated tax rate (as we have today) and having no cap on payroll taxes for individuals.

Our current tax code is so complicated that the IRS cannot enforce it. And just adding "stuff" to the tax code will just make things worse.

[dobrojim]

you sounded as though you had some specific notions of negative
unintended consequences for a nominal transaction tax.

Could you state what those are?

[closg00]

How could they have allowed Epstein to kill himself? Let the conspiracy theories begin.

[dckingsfan]

you sounded as though you had some specific notions of negative unintended consequences for a nominal transaction tax.

Could you state what those are?

I have five or six off the top of my head - but let's go with my list that the CBO analysis (although having trouble finding the report) also agrees.

First, reducing market liquidity is never a good idea. That market liquidity is one of the drivers of investment and productivity. It would adversely affect GDP over time and that would then affect other receipts.

Higher capital costs for companies when they sell assets is also a bad idea. Most of that money goes into investments or shareholder payouts which is then taxed (taxing investment taxes the same way as earned income is the better way to do this - but you don't look nearly as cleaver and you then don't appear to be punishing an industry).

It would also increase the cost of financing our national debt - being a fiscal conservative - you can see how this rankles me to no end.

[pancakes3]

i just don't think it'd be the revenue generator as projected. wall street will change its habits. high frequency trading would be effectively killed, which i view as a good thing, but the money's not going to be there.

i have less qualms about liquidity and corporate profits since most of the impact would be on secondary markets.

i would also imagine that market volatility would increase because less transactions means longer lapses in between trades for market correction.

[dobrojim]

Nominal transaction tax...key word is nominal. I suspect besides raising some,
arguably nominal, amount of money, the things it would impact are things
like high frequency trading that some people may make money doing but
that have little productive value.

[dckingsfan]

Nominal transaction tax...key word is nominal. I suspect besides raising some,
arguably nominal, amount of money, the things it would impact are things
like high frequency trading that some people may make money doing but
that have little productive value.

Here is the CBO analysis... One other thing - Sanders is saying the tax (from '19-28) will raise $2.4 trillion, CBO says 777B. I think it would be far less as the transaction trades decrease. So, it wouldn't actually fund his program(s).

You have done a pretty good job pointing out the benefits - so I will take the devil's advocate side and point out what the CBO sees as potential negatives:

The tax could also have a number of negative effects on the economy stemming from its effects on asset prices, the cost of capital for firms, and the frequency of trading. Traders and investors would seek to recoup the cost of trading by raising the return they required on financial assets, thereby lowering the prices of those assets. The tax would be small relative to the returns that investors with long-term horizons could earn, so the effect on asset prices would be partly mitigated if traders and investors reduced the frequency of their trading—but less frequent trading would lower liquidity and reduce the amount of information reflected in prices. Consequently, investment could decline (even though higher tax revenues would lower federal borrowing and thus increase the funds available for investment) because of increases in the cost of issuing debt and equity securities that would be subject to the tax and potential negative effects on derivatives trading, which could make it more difficult to efficiently distribute risk in the economy. The cost to the Treasury of issuing federal debt could increase because of the increase in trading costs and the reduction in liquidity. Household wealth would decline with the reduction in asset prices, which would lower consumption.

https://www.cbo.gov/budget-options/2018/54823?mod=article_inline

[closg00]

Economist/YouGov - Wednesday, August 7

Seems like Warren is taking over the mantle on the progressive side and closing on Biden.

Code: Select all

Biden     25
Warren    18
Sanders   13
Harris     8
Buttigieg  7
O'Rourke   2
Booker     2
Yang       2
Gabbard    3
Castro     1


Trump would trounce her

[Pointgod]

Economist/YouGov - Wednesday, August 7

Seems like Warren is taking over the mantle on the progressive side and closing on Biden.

Code: Select all

Biden     25
Warren    18
Sanders   13
Harris     8
Buttigieg  7
O'Rourke   2
Booker     2
Yang       2
Gabbard    3
Castro     1


Trump would trounce her

Literally anyone of these people could win if Democrats got their head out of their asses and decided to collectively show up and support the Democratic candidate. Which is why I keep beating the drum that the bigger picture is getting rid of Trump.

[Pointgod]

So Jefferey Epstein commits suicide under very suspicious circumstances right after a couple of his high profile friends were named in public. I’m not a conspiracy theorist but this **** is fishy and shady as hell. I’m sure he had a long list of powerful friends including Trump. It’s going to be interesting seeing competing theories about whether Trump or the Clintons had him killed.

[doclinkin]

So Jefferey Epstein commits suicide under very suspicious circumstances right after a couple of his high profile friends were named in public. I’m not a conspiracy theorist but this **** is fishy and shady as hell. I’m sure he had a long list of powerful friends including Trump. It’s going to be interesting seeing competing theories about whether Trump or the Clintons had him killed.

Yes. Some very powerful people were nervous that he was in custody. In New York where federal prosecutors are no friend to the powerful.

And notice as soon as Epstein was locked up out of nowhere Alan Dershowitz was penning articles about the age of consent and how it should differ depending on the culture from where the girl in question is from since puberty etc varies by age.

And yes he traveled on Epstein’s plane but there were no underage girls anywhere ever.

And consider that Epstein did business at Mar-a-Lago. Was a noted friend of Trump. The same Trump who said if his daughter wasn’t his daughter he’d date her. Yeah no surprise if there’s additional dirt there.

No doubt no question something shady happened.

When you have nervous billionaires and royalty and politicians and celebrities, no doubt something bad is bound to happen. Money is both means and opportunity.

[Kanyewest]

Biden comes out ahead in Texas vs Trump in the early polls. It may not last for this election but maybe Texas will turn blue in the not to distant future.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/tx/texas_trump_vs_biden-6818.html

[Pointgod]

So Jefferey Epstein commits suicide under very suspicious circumstances right after a couple of his high profile friends were named in public. I’m not a conspiracy theorist but this **** is fishy and shady as hell. I’m sure he had a long list of powerful friends including Trump. It’s going to be interesting seeing competing theories about whether Trump or the Clintons had him killed.

Yes. Some very powerful people were nervous that he was in custody. In New York where federal prosecutors are no friend to the powerful.

And notice as soon as Epstein was locked up out of nowhere Alan Dershowitz was penning articles about the age of consent and how it should differ depending on the culture from where the girl in question is from since puberty etc varies by age.

And yes he traveled on Epstein’s plane but there were no underage girls anywhere ever.

And consider that Epstein did business at Mar-a-Lago. Was a noted friend of Trump. The same Trump who said if his daughter wasn’t his daughter he’d date her. Yeah no surprise if there’s additional dirt there.

No doubt no question something shady happened.

When you have nervous billionaires and royalty and politicians and celebrities, no doubt something bad is bound to happen. Money is both means and opportunity.

It’s disheartening that Epistein’s victims will not get the justice they deserve. Hopefully they’re able to get some kind of closure whether it’s financial or through other people being brought to justice. I heard that Eipstein apparently videotaped his friends with underage girls, scumbags like him must of had an insurance policy in the case of an “accident”. Hopefully more people get exposed

[dckingsfan]

Biden comes out ahead in Texas vs Trump in the early polls. It may not last for this election but maybe Texas will turn blue in the not to distant future.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/tx/texas_trump_vs_biden-6818.html

So, I am still walking in Houston, voter registration this time (and not a fun thing to do - this streak of 100+ days feels like it is never going to end).

I am seeing an interesting split in families where the women are starting to come out against Trump and willing to register. But the demographics of this city are soooo skewed I don't think it is reliable barometer for the rest of the US.

Having said that - having ridden the coattails of Beto to a completely D Houston government was pretty interesting. Folks here now seem energized to keep it going. Problem is - we don't have a Beto to coattail.

[Pointgod]

Biden comes out ahead in Texas vs Trump in the early polls. It may not last for this election but maybe Texas will turn blue in the not to distant future.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/tx/texas_trump_vs_biden-6818.html

So, I am still walking in Houston, voter registration this time (and not a fun thing to do - this streak of 100+ days feels like it is never going to end).

I am seeing an interesting split in families where the women are starting to come out against Trump and willing to register. But the demographics of this city are soooo skewed I don't think it is reliable barometer for the rest of the US.

Having said that - having ridden the coattails of Beto to a completely D Houston government was pretty interesting. Folks here now seem energized to keep it going. Problem is - we don't have a Beto to coattail.

Beto should have really tried another Senate run.

[I_Like_Dirt]

Nominal transaction tax...key word is nominal. I suspect besides raising some,
arguably nominal, amount of money, the things it would impact are things
like high frequency trading that some people may make money doing but
that have little productive value.

Here is the CBO analysis... One other thing - Sanders is saying the tax (from '19-28) will raise $2.4 trillion, CBO says 777B. I think it would be far less as the transaction trades decrease. So, it wouldn't actually fund his program(s).

You have done a pretty good job pointing out the benefits - so I will take the devil's advocate side and point out what the CBO sees as potential negatives:

The tax could also have a number of negative effects on the economy stemming from its effects on asset prices, the cost of capital for firms, and the frequency of trading. Traders and investors would seek to recoup the cost of trading by raising the return they required on financial assets, thereby lowering the prices of those assets. The tax would be small relative to the returns that investors with long-term horizons could earn, so the effect on asset prices would be partly mitigated if traders and investors reduced the frequency of their trading—but less frequent trading would lower liquidity and reduce the amount of information reflected in prices. Consequently, investment could decline (even though higher tax revenues would lower federal borrowing and thus increase the funds available for investment) because of increases in the cost of issuing debt and equity securities that would be subject to the tax and potential negative effects on derivatives trading, which could make it more difficult to efficiently distribute risk in the economy. The cost to the Treasury of issuing federal debt could increase because of the increase in trading costs and the reduction in liquidity. Household wealth would decline with the reduction in asset prices, which would lower consumption.

https://www.cbo.gov/budget-options/2018/54823?mod=article_inline

The fun part about this is they're making sense until they start arguing that lowering consumption is a bad thing. We really need to start figuring out means of managing the economy that don't require maintaining or even increasing the massive levels of consumption we're currently seeing. There isn't a population problem in the world. There is, however, a consumption problem. Granted, this is probably not the best way of going about reducing consumption, but still...

[I_Like_Dirt]

So Jefferey Epstein commits suicide under very suspicious circumstances right after a couple of his high profile friends were named in public. I’m not a conspiracy theorist but this **** is fishy and shady as hell. I’m sure he had a long list of powerful friends including Trump. It’s going to be interesting seeing competing theories about whether Trump or the Clintons had him killed.

I'm gonna guess neither. He had already attempted suicide once. At most maybe you're talking about paying for someone not to watch him that closely but historically it doesn't take much for prisons to look the other way. But yes, it's going to spawn all sorts of conspiracy theories and they might not even be wrong for all I know. There definitely were a lot of wealthy people sweating bullets where Epstein was concerned.

[dckingsfan]

Nominal transaction tax...key word is nominal. I suspect besides raising some,
arguably nominal, amount of money, the things it would impact are things
like high frequency trading that some people may make money doing but
that have little productive value.

Here is the CBO analysis... One other thing - Sanders is saying the tax (from '19-28) will raise $2.4 trillion, CBO says 777B. I think it would be far less as the transaction trades decrease. So, it wouldn't actually fund his program(s).

You have done a pretty good job pointing out the benefits - so I will take the devil's advocate side and point out what the CBO sees as potential negatives:

The tax could also have a number of negative effects on the economy stemming from its effects on asset prices, the cost of capital for firms, and the frequency of trading. Traders and investors would seek to recoup the cost of trading by raising the return they required on financial assets, thereby lowering the prices of those assets. The tax would be small relative to the returns that investors with long-term horizons could earn, so the effect on asset prices would be partly mitigated if traders and investors reduced the frequency of their trading—but less frequent trading would lower liquidity and reduce the amount of information reflected in prices. Consequently, investment could decline (even though higher tax revenues would lower federal borrowing and thus increase the funds available for investment) because of increases in the cost of issuing debt and equity securities that would be subject to the tax and potential negative effects on derivatives trading, which could make it more difficult to efficiently distribute risk in the economy. The cost to the Treasury of issuing federal debt could increase because of the increase in trading costs and the reduction in liquidity. Household wealth would decline with the reduction in asset prices, which would lower consumption.

They really can't get granular enough on consumption - so, it is a very difficult one for the CBO to tackle.

But your point stands - reduce, reuse, recycle would get us a long way (I think that is the point you are making).
https://www.cbo.gov/budget-options/2018/54823?mod=article_inline

The fun part about this is they're making sense until they start arguing that lowering consumption is a bad thing. We really need to start figuring out means of managing the economy that don't require maintaining or even increasing the massive levels of consumption we're currently seeing. There isn't a population problem in the world. There is, however, a consumption problem. Granted, this is probably not the best way of going about reducing consumption, but still...