Official Speculation Thread ‘19-'20 II: BIG as F

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If JI makes a leap this year together with AG. I think we got ourselves the superstars we have been waiting for. If JI and AG makes the all stars by Feb we will be top of the east.

Both would of course be great, one of the two would be good. I am with you though in my opinion the future is with AG / JI and a primary play maker.

JIs height and length really stands out when he is guarding Tatum in the first clip.

This guy transcends all of the measurable advanced stats...he just neutralizes very good offensive players. Even if there isn't a steal or block, very good players just give up the ball. May not get him to an All-Star game but, if he keeps it up, his teams win games.

[basketballRob]

I really liked Fox around draft, without looking at his jumpshot nobody could tell is he left or right handed , that's how easly he finishes around rim with both hands . And that first step is super quick.
Him and Tatum are turning into stars so early . Tatum is 21 and he will probably have 18-20 ppg season , Fox is also 21 and he already has 17 ppg 7,3 apg season behind him.

Going back to 2017 draft in few years and re-drafting it will be fun ( unless you are Suns GM )

I remember most here wanted DSJ even over Fox. If we could have moved up, I think most wanted Jackson. I liked Isaac, Monk, and Jackson.

Fultz is the biggest question mark. Until he's ruled out permanently or plays a full year, it's purely speculation on what kind of player he'll be. I still think once he gets a full year in, he'll be considered a top 5 pick in a redraft.

Fultz is a year younger than Fox, and you could argue that his numbers were better than Fox at the same age.

Hopefully Fultz can have a big jump like Fox did from 20 to 21 years old.

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Well we drafted 6th, so lot of us knew that we have no shot at Tatum (who i didn't like that much, i didn't think he has athletics to be this good... I was dead wrong ), Fultz, who was viewed as top 2 pick , Lonzo or Jackson/Fox.
So naturally, people wanted Isaac, Markkanen, Smith or Monk, because they were realistic options,

Difference in age between guys like Fultz, Fox or Smith are basically non.
Oldest among them is Fox who is only 6 months older than youngest, Fultz.
Smith and Fultz are only 2 months difference in age.

All of them are super young.

People still sleep on Markkanen who had nasty injury through year, but for example in March averaged 26 ppg , 14 rebounds on 49% FG and 35% for 3 and 92% FTs ( on 6,6 attemps). That guy also just turned 22 and has league's average 3point percentage on whooping 6,2 attemps a game.
IF you compare his stats, he is right where Dirk was after 2 years, will he take next step is hard to tell ,but guy can play.

On other hand Lonzo,Jackson, Collins, Nitkilina,Monk, Kennard... meh

When comparing them, this will still be Fultz 21 year old season based on when he was born.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.fcgi?request=1&sum=0&player_id1_hint=Dennis+Smith+Jr.&player_id1_select=Dennis+Smith+Jr.&player_id1=smithde03&y1=2018&player_id2_hint=Markelle+Fultz&player_id2_select=Markelle+Fultz&y2=2019&player_id2=fultzma01&idx=players&player_id3_hint=De%27Aaron+Fox&player_id3_select=De%27Aaron+Fox&y3=2018&player_id3=foxde01&idx=players

[pepe1991]

I remember most here wanted DSJ even over Fox. If we could have moved up, I think most wanted Jackson. I liked Isaac, Monk, and Jackson.

Fultz is the biggest question mark. Until he's ruled out permanently or plays a full year, it's purely speculation on what kind of player he'll be. I still think once he gets a full year in, he'll be considered a top 5 pick in a redraft.

Fultz is a year younger than Fox, and you could argue that his numbers were better than Fox at the same age.

Hopefully Fultz can have a big jump like Fox did from 20 to 21 years old.

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Well we drafted 6th, so lot of us knew that we have no shot at Tatum (who i didn't like that much, i didn't think he has athletics to be this good... I was dead wrong ), Fultz, who was viewed as top 2 pick , Lonzo or Jackson/Fox.
So naturally, people wanted Isaac, Markkanen, Smith or Monk, because they were realistic options,

Difference in age between guys like Fultz, Fox or Smith are basically non.
Oldest among them is Fox who is only 6 months older than youngest, Fultz.
Smith and Fultz are only 2 months difference in age.

All of them are super young.

People still sleep on Markkanen who had nasty injury through year, but for example in March averaged 26 ppg , 14 rebounds on 49% FG and 35% for 3 and 92% FTs ( on 6,6 attemps). That guy also just turned 22 and has league's average 3point percentage on whooping 6,2 attemps a game.
IF you compare his stats, he is right where Dirk was after 2 years, will he take next step is hard to tell ,but guy can play.

On other hand Lonzo,Jackson, Collins, Nitkilina,Monk, Kennard... meh

When comparing them, this will still be Fultz 21 year old season based on when he was born.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.fcgi?request=1&sum=0&player_id1_hint=Dennis+Smith+Jr.&player_id1_select=Dennis+Smith+Jr.&player_id1=smithde03&y1=2018&player_id2_hint=Markelle+Fultz&player_id2_select=Markelle+Fultz&y2=2019&player_id2=fultzma01&idx=players&player_id3_hint=De%27Aaron+Fox&player_id3_select=De%27Aaron+Fox&y3=2018&player_id3=foxde01&idx=players

It's irrelevant data since all 3 of them ( 5 if you add Ntilikina and Lonzo ) born within 6 months, all 5 are drafted same year and all 5 are entering their 3rd season.

Ntilikina is actually youngest among them, and we give him zero benefit of a doubt because of it, same should be apllyed to others.
Fultz still has some "injuried" excuses, but outside Magic fanbase lot of people labeled him as bust 2 years ago.

If we are 100% honest ,fair and objective, among 5 PGs from that draft, only Fox looks like somebody who will be 5 -6 time allstar down the line.

Derick White who was drafted 29# outplayed 4 of them so far.

[basketballRob]

Well we drafted 6th, so lot of us knew that we have no shot at Tatum (who i didn't like that much, i didn't think he has athletics to be this good... I was dead wrong ), Fultz, who was viewed as top 2 pick , Lonzo or Jackson/Fox.
So naturally, people wanted Isaac, Markkanen, Smith or Monk, because they were realistic options,

Difference in age between guys like Fultz, Fox or Smith are basically non.
Oldest among them is Fox who is only 6 months older than youngest, Fultz.
Smith and Fultz are only 2 months difference in age.

All of them are super young.

People still sleep on Markkanen who had nasty injury through year, but for example in March averaged 26 ppg , 14 rebounds on 49% FG and 35% for 3 and 92% FTs ( on 6,6 attemps). That guy also just turned 22 and has league's average 3point percentage on whooping 6,2 attemps a game.
IF you compare his stats, he is right where Dirk was after 2 years, will he take next step is hard to tell ,but guy can play.

On other hand Lonzo,Jackson, Collins, Nitkilina,Monk, Kennard... meh

When comparing them, this will still be Fultz 21 year old season based on when he was born.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.fcgi?request=1&sum=0&player_id1_hint=Dennis+Smith+Jr.&player_id1_select=Dennis+Smith+Jr.&player_id1=smithde03&y1=2018&player_id2_hint=Markelle+Fultz&player_id2_select=Markelle+Fultz&y2=2019&player_id2=fultzma01&idx=players&player_id3_hint=De%27Aaron+Fox&player_id3_select=De%27Aaron+Fox&y3=2018&player_id3=foxde01&idx=players

It's irrelevant data since all 3 of them ( 5 if you add Ntilikina ) born within 6 months, all 5 are drafted same year and all 5 are entering their 3rd season.

Ntilikina is actually youngest among them, and we give him zero benefit of a doubt because of it, same should be apllyed to others.
Fultz still has some "injuried" excuses, but outside Magic fanbase lot of people labeled him as bust 2 years ago.

If we are 100% honest ,fair and objective, among 5 PGs from that draft, only Fox looks like somebody who will be 5 -6 time allstar down the line.

Derick White who was drafted 29# outplayed 4 of them so far.

If Fox and Fultz were in HS, Fox would be a grade ahead of him. So yes he's one year ahead of him. Derrick White is 4 years ahead of him and entering his prime. Fultz can play 4 more years before he enters his prime at 25.

[pepe1991]

When comparing them, this will still be Fultz 21 year old season based on when he was born.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.fcgi?request=1&sum=0&player_id1_hint=Dennis+Smith+Jr.&player_id1_select=Dennis+Smith+Jr.&player_id1=smithde03&y1=2018&player_id2_hint=Markelle+Fultz&player_id2_select=Markelle+Fultz&y2=2019&player_id2=fultzma01&idx=players&player_id3_hint=De%27Aaron+Fox&player_id3_select=De%27Aaron+Fox&y3=2018&player_id3=foxde01&idx=players

It's irrelevant data since all 3 of them ( 5 if you add Ntilikina ) born within 6 months, all 5 are drafted same year and all 5 are entering their 3rd season.

Ntilikina is actually youngest among them, and we give him zero benefit of a doubt because of it, same should be apllyed to others.
Fultz still has some "injuried" excuses, but outside Magic fanbase lot of people labeled him as bust 2 years ago.

If we are 100% honest ,fair and objective, among 5 PGs from that draft, only Fox looks like somebody who will be 5 -6 time allstar down the line.

Derick White who was drafted 29# outplayed 4 of them so far.

If Fox and Fultz were in HS, Fox would be a grade ahead of him. So yes he's one year ahead of him. Derrick White is 4 years ahead of him and entering his prime. Fultz can play 4 more years before he enters his prime at 25.

White is older but nobody had any expetations for him. Where other 5 are all lottery picks.

As for age, again, this is not highschool, difference of one year, especially less than one year means nothing. They all have same amount of experience ( college+ nba) . At least on surface, it's not Fox's fault that Fultz couldn't play for 2 years.

There are lot of young players that are flat out bad ( Ntiklina just turned 21, Bender is yet to turn 22 for example ).

Redrafting 2017 today would probably be:
Tatum
Fox
Mitchell
Markkanen
Collins
Kuzma

[basketballRob]

It's irrelevant data since all 3 of them ( 5 if you add Ntilikina ) born within 6 months, all 5 are drafted same year and all 5 are entering their 3rd season.

Ntilikina is actually youngest among them, and we give him zero benefit of a doubt because of it, same should be apllyed to others.
Fultz still has some "injuried" excuses, but outside Magic fanbase lot of people labeled him as bust 2 years ago.

If we are 100% honest ,fair and objective, among 5 PGs from that draft, only Fox looks like somebody who will be 5 -6 time allstar down the line.

Derick White who was drafted 29# outplayed 4 of them so far.

If Fox and Fultz were in HS, Fox would be a grade ahead of him. So yes he's one year ahead of him. Derrick White is 4 years ahead of him and entering his prime. Fultz can play 4 more years before he enters his prime at 25.

White is older but nobody had any expetations for him. Where other 5 are all lottery picks.

As for age, again, this is not highschool, difference of one year, especially less than one year means nothing. They all have same amount of experience ( college+ nba) . At least on surface, it's not Fox's fault that Fultz couldn't play for 2 years.

There are lot of young players that are flat out bad ( Ntiklina just turned 21, Bender is yet to turn 22 for example ).

Redrafting 2017 today would probably be:
Tatum
Fox
Mitchell
Markkanen
Collins
Kuzma

Yes some players are flat out bad, Fultz at 20 was comparable to Fox. Hopefully he makes a big jump this year.

You may factor other things into evaluating a player at a certain age, but most of the basketball world compare players based on the age they were during the season played.

I think Fultz has the ability to be better than him. He just needs to overcome the shoulder injury and mentally mature.

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[basketballRob]

Hopefully when the schedules come out at 3, we get all the teams that made big changes early, before they jel.

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[tiderulz]

Well we drafted 6th, so lot of us knew that we have no shot at Tatum (who i didn't like that much, i didn't think he has athletics to be this good... I was dead wrong ), Fultz, who was viewed as top 2 pick , Lonzo or Jackson/Fox.
So naturally, people wanted Isaac, Markkanen, Smith or Monk, because they were realistic options,

Difference in age between guys like Fultz, Fox or Smith are basically non.
Oldest among them is Fox who is only 6 months older than youngest, Fultz.
Smith and Fultz are only 2 months difference in age.

All of them are super young.

People still sleep on Markkanen who had nasty injury through year, but for example in March averaged 26 ppg , 14 rebounds on 49% FG and 35% for 3 and 92% FTs ( on 6,6 attemps). That guy also just turned 22 and has league's average 3point percentage on whooping 6,2 attemps a game.
IF you compare his stats, he is right where Dirk was after 2 years, will he take next step is hard to tell ,but guy can play.

On other hand Lonzo,Jackson, Collins, Nitkilina,Monk, Kennard... meh

When comparing them, this will still be Fultz 21 year old season based on when he was born.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.fcgi?request=1&sum=0&player_id1_hint=Dennis+Smith+Jr.&player_id1_select=Dennis+Smith+Jr.&player_id1=smithde03&y1=2018&player_id2_hint=Markelle+Fultz&player_id2_select=Markelle+Fultz&y2=2019&player_id2=fultzma01&idx=players&player_id3_hint=De%27Aaron+Fox&player_id3_select=De%27Aaron+Fox&y3=2018&player_id3=foxde01&idx=players

It's irrelevant data since all 3 of them ( 5 if you add Ntilikina and Lonzo ) born within 6 months, all 5 are drafted same year and all 5 are entering their 3rd season.

Ntilikina is actually youngest among them, and we give him zero benefit of a doubt because of it, same should be apllyed to others.
Fultz still has some "injuried" excuses, but outside Magic fanbase lot of people labeled him as bust 2 years ago.

If we are 100% honest ,fair and objective, among 5 PGs from that draft, only Fox looks like somebody who will be 5 -6 time allstar down the line.

Derick White who was drafted 29# outplayed 4 of them so far.

probably because he has been healthy and playing/practicing in the NBA for 3 years and is not good.

[MoMM]

Hopefully he makes a big jump this year.

You meant "hopefully he makes a shot this year", right?

[basketballRob]

Hopefully he makes a big jump this year.

You meant "hopefully he makes a shot this year", right?

He wasn't terrible for a 20 year old. If he was healthy and in the right frame of mind, I think he would've done better.

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[j-ragg]

Saw they're doing the rookie photo shoot. Is Chuma even there? Does anyone know wtf is happening with him?

[Def Swami]

Saw they're doing the rookie photo shoot. Is Chuma even there? Does anyone know wtf is happening with him?

Still the only 1st round pick that is not signed to a contract. And not a single report from the Magic or Josh Robbins or John Denton as to why.

[KillMonger]

Saw they're doing the rookie photo shoot. Is Chuma even there? Does anyone know wtf is happening with him?

Yeah he's there......no idea on the contract situation though

[drsd]

Still the only 1st round pick that is not signed to a contract. And not a single report from the Magic or Josh Robbins or John Denton as to why.

Two weeks ago we all had a quite intelligent debate about "what is going on?", and here we are STILL not having an answer. Why is the O-Sen not investigating this? This is moving towards "weirdness" territory, and the O-Sen has a "duty" to provide an answer at this point.

Even if Okeke signed "today", we fans still deserve an answer as to why this is taking so long.

Okeke has a 120% cap hit, and most rookies sign at 120%, so there is no cap benefit of waiting.

As a reminder, there is really only two possibilities as to the delay. i) Orlando is trying to sign Okeke for less than 120%. ii) Orlando plans to sign him to a G-league deal (as they own his rights in that scenario for another three years), and then Okeke would sign his rookie contract next year. This is the so-called Gentleman's agreement idea that Okeke waiting will result in him eventually getting a higher salary than if he was allowed to slip in the draft.

Any other speculative thoughts?


..

[j-ragg]

Still the only 1st round pick that is not signed to a contract. And not a single report from the Magic or Josh Robbins or John Denton as to why.

As a reminder, there is really only two possibilities as to the delay. i) Orlando is trying to sign Okeke for less than 120%. ii) Orlando plans to sign him to a G-league deal (as they own his rights in that scenario for another three years), and then Okeke would sign his rookie contract next year. This is the so-called Gentleman's agreement idea that Okeke waiting will result in him eventually getting a higher salary than if he was allowed to slip in the draft.

Any other speculative thoughts?


..

Only other option would be they plan on trading him. But given this management I highly doubt that to be the case.

[King Close]

Chuma's been practicing with the team, we might have signed him just nothing announced yet, that's something this front office would do.

[drsd]

Chuma's been practicing with the team, we might have signed him just nothing announced yet, that's something this front office would do.

It is essentially impossible that would not have leaked. What management never does is state salary lines, but even that "leaks".

[Furinkazan]

Chuma's been practicing with the team, we might have signed him just nothing announced yet, that's something this front office would do.

It is essentially impossible that would not have leaked. What management never does is state salary lines, but even that "leaks".

On hoopshype they got him signed and they got also Hunmphries signed at 1yr/1,445,697

[pepe1991]

Hoops rumors is easly best page when it comes to factual datas and this is what they wrote 2 days ago

"That leaves just four players whose contract situation for ’19/20 remains up in the air. Those players are as follows:

Orlando Magic: Chuma Okeke, F (Auburn)
Denver Nuggets: Bol Bol, C (Oregon)
Charlotte Hornets: Jalen McDaniels, F (San Diego State)
Brooklyn Nets: Jaylen Hands, G (UCLA)
Okeke is the lone 2019 first-rounder who remains unsigned, and it’s probably not just a coincidence that he’s the last one to ink his rookie contract. He tore his ACL in March and is expected to miss a good chunk – if not all – of his rookie season. While virtually every first-round pick signs for 120% of his rookie scale amount, the Cavaliers were able to get Kevin Porter for lower than that earlier in the offseason — it’s possible the Magic are exploring a similar deal with Okeke.

Bol, meanwhile, figures to sign with the Nuggets eventually. The team still has a projected opening on its 15-man regular season roster, plus a pair of open two-way contract slots. I’d expect Bol to sign a standard deal, but the two sides will have to reach an agreement on the years, dollars, and guarantee amounts. Since Denver has its full mid-level exception available, a variety of options are on the table.

As for McDaniels and Hands, they look like strong candidates to sign two-way contracts. Both the Nets and Hornets have an open two-way slot, and players selected in the 50-60 range frequently end up on two-way deals. While Brooklyn already has 15 players on guaranteed contracts, Charlotte is only carrying 13, so it’s possible a regular season roster spot is still in play for McDaniels."


Most interesting part apart from Okeke is that nba rookie, if he is second round pick, can be signed with MLE. I had no idea that's possible.

[ezzzp]

As a reminder, there is really only two possibilities as to the delay. i) Orlando is trying to sign Okeke for less than 120%. ii) Orlando plans to sign him to a G-league deal (as they own his rights in that scenario for another three years), and then Okeke would sign his rookie contract next year. This is the so-called Gentleman's agreement idea that Okeke waiting will result in him eventually getting a higher salary than if he was allowed to slip in the draft.

Any other speculative thoughts?

I think it just has to do with the FO keeping their options open for the 15th roster spot.

To stay below the luxury tax line and sign Daquan Jeffries to a minimum contract, Okeke would have to agree to make $78k less in the 1st year than what is normally given. If Jeffries doesn't make the squad, they give Okeke the full 1st year amount.

Even though deferring Okeke a full season would be a windfall for the Magic, that would be a massive risk for Okeke to take. I just don't see a player, that has never made money and currently rehabbing a torn ACL, putting his entire first $15m at risk. If for some reason Okeke allows that risk, Iman Shumpert and Jamal Crawford are still out there.