The Wizards Plan (cracking the Beal Wall Tommy Wizards)

[doclinkin]

We Wizards fans spend a great deal of time imagineering possible futures for the Wizards, crafting ghost trades and daydreaming about what could be if we were RealIMeanReallyReal GMs. Many times a week posters have traded away Wall or Beal and landed Kawhi and Giannis and...

However. The Wizards, despite zigzags along the way, do now actually have a real GM. And supporting him we have a front office of pretty bright people focused on team success. To hear Tommy talk about it, the front office does have a plan. A plan that is backed up by research and analytics, finally, and while we can secondguess choices they did or did not make, still it is something of a relief that there are smart people making decisions supported by data and careful thought.

So. This thread exists to envision the team that our front office is attempting to build. IF we take them at their word that they have a plan, and not assume they are simply filling holes in the roster to stall for time, then what does that plan look like? Let's consider they moves they make and try to foresee what they would like to do, what roster composition are they looking for, what play style are they looking towards. What is the team they are trying to build? Who is going to be on the team? What does that look like? WHat sorts of moves will they have to make to get it to work?

For the purposes of this thread, I suggest we take them at their word, and try to dream into being the team that they want to see, based on their stated desires and the moves they do make.

Beal and Wall.

The Team has been pretty clear about their intentions with these two players. Front offices of other teams have inquired about Beal and quietly covet John Wall regardless of injury and timetable and contract. The team has made it evident they intend to keep them both and feel they can build a contender. They want to see a healthy Wall and a re-signed Beal play together and intend to assemble a team around that core. And no amount of inducement will talk them out of it.

Apparently before Paul George was approached the Clippers inquired about Beal. We saw what a rich and juicy package was given for George, you have to figure a rising young all star like Beal could command a similar deal. That deal was turned down firmly quickly and politely. Whatever speculation and clickbait reporters try to drum up or whatever discontent other teams front offices try to foment, the team has made clear they are not interested in trading Beal. Period end fullstop.

In fact the team plans to build a foundation for the future with players in Bradley Beal's mold and ideally under his mentorship. The team wants good character hard working guys who play hard and smart in all aspects. They seem to like the development of Bryant and Brown who credit Beal as a role model. They invited Beal into the draft process and gave him input in draft selection. Beal himself has said he trusts and has a good relationship with Tommy Sheppard. And in the press conference they made clear they envision inking Beal for the rest of his career and even thereafter.

So. Whether or not fans have fears he may leave, the team is planning to keep him, max, supermax, as long as we can. Bradley Beal is, if not the Best of the Best, he is the Good of the Good at shooting guard. He does exactly what you would want a 2 guard to do, and even gets more efficient in the post season. One reason teams throughout the league covet him is that he will fit next to any other star without battling for the spotlight. He is easy to build around. The only, the ONLY, detraction you can stain him with is that he does not have the transcendent ability to carry a team to wins by his own efforts alone. He maximizes his ability and improves all the time, but he does not dominate his match up and force teams to submit. So. At the prices he will command, the team will have a chunky pricetag attached to a player who is unlikely to be a superstar. But he is damn good, and his intangibles mean he makes the players around him better.

Brings us to Wall.
Speaking of making players better. For the purposes of this thread lets assume the team is About the Truth with regard to Wall.

A doc digression and tangent: There's all hella chicken littles running around crying doom about what Wall will and will not be able to do in the future and if he will ever earn the contract he landed. Maybe maybe not. I personally think its unseemly how quickly fans rush to quit on a guy and ship him to other teams without giving him a shot at redemption in their mind. But if he comes back and plays well that same crew of rats will be scrambling to climb back onto the ship they hastily abandoned.

But be that as it may. The team has made clear they intend to keep him. It doesn't seem to be simply PR speak or being boxed into a corner. Maybe. Maybe. But from not only the words they say but the moves they've made they seem to believe he will be a part of their new foundation going forward.

The team seems to expect as he puts in the work, he will recover his game or improve. For the purposes of this thread lets assume they know what they are doing. It's not a stretch. The team has access to Johns medical staff. They oversee his rehabilitation. They understand his mindset. They maintain close connection. And from everything they are saying and the moves they make they expect Wall will be a cornerstone of the franchise after his rehab and beyond. You have to assume the team knows better than most how hindered Wall was when he was playing through pain and putting up 20 and 8 on one leg. He's tough. And when bone spurs were the diagnosis you get a sense of how tough considering the years of 40+ minutes a game under Wittman -- with a shuffling zombie horde of useless pointguards behind him so he couldn't afford to rest. Assume that a significant portion of his lack of effort was pain based, since in big games he was able to raise his energy on both ends of the court and morph into a shut down guard.

So. Assuming these three things. That the team has a plan. That they intend to keep Beal. That they expect Wall to fully recover. and their plan is to build around those two. If so, what sort of team do you think the team will build? Given their roster moves so far, are their any hints of the sort of team they expect to build with a Beal, Wall, Bryant, Hachimura foundation?

And if you were building a team and had to keep those two, no trades, what sort of team would you try to build around them?

I've got my answers but will follow up later.

[nate33]

The one obvious pattern in the Tommy Sheppard era is that he was unwilling to sign or extend anyone past 2021 with the exception of Thomas Bryant. It's possible that it was simply because there were no free agents that he felt were worth signing long term at a market price, but I suspect that there is a plan in place, or at least a hope in place, of trying to get under the cap in 2021 to make a play in free agency.

But if you look at the long term salary situation, the only way to get a big free agent in 2021 is to move John Wall. All the PR coming out right now is that the team loves John Wall and wants him to be a Wizard for life, so I don't know what to believe.

I don't think it's possible for this team to ever contend if it's centered around Wall and Beal, each on max deals. There's just not enough cap flexibility to add supporting talent. In my mind, the quickest way to contention is to dump Wall as soon as it can be done so without sacrificing significant assets. In that scenario, I'd prefer to keep Beal and build around him, but that's going to depend solely on what Beal wants. If he doesn't want to participate in a rebuild that aims for a contention window in 2022 and beyond, then he'll have to be moved too.

My most optimistic scenario would go something like this:

2019-20 season: The team starts out slow but by the middle of the season, Hachimura, Brown start looking like legitimate starters and the team starts looking respectable. Bryant kills it as our starting center and receives MIP consideration. The team plays .500 ball in March and April and finish with 33 wins. Wall comes back for the final 10 games under a minutes restriction and looks healthy, albeit rusty.

2020 offseason: The Wizards land a top 4 pick and draft a point guard or combo guard. Somebody emerges to provide depth at SF behind Troy Brown (either Schofield, Jones, Bonga, their 2020 2nd, or a free agent they find on the cheap). They sign a veteran big on a one-year deal (maybe just retaining Bertans). Beal signs a 1+1 extension if he doesn't make All-NBA. If he makes All-NBA, he signs the supermax extension. They go into the season with Wall, Beal, Brown, Hachimura, Bryant, and a bench of 2020 1st, whatever SF emerged, and Bertans.

2020-21 season: The team plays really well. It's not really such a stretch. They've got Wall and Beal. And Bryant is now better than Gortat's best season. Brown and Hachimura combine to be roughly as good as what Porter and Morris gave us. Wall is playing well, but he is being load managed, and when he sits, our 2020 draft pick starts and he looks good too - about as good as SGA looked on the Clippers. The team has about the same level of media buzz as Sacramento did last season. Only in the East, playing like 2019 Sacramento puts the Wizards on a path to 45 wins.

2020-21 Trade Deadline: The Wizards trade John Wall for expiring contracts and maybe one $10Mish dead weight contract that extends past 2021. They might throw in a future 1st but not the 2021 first. Afterwards, the Wizards still make the playoffs as the #6 seed and take the #3 seed to 7 games before losing. The 2020 1st does a nice job taking over at PG.

2021 offseason: The Wizards are a playoff team with an extremely young core and max cap room. The organization has undergone a total transformation since the Ernie era. The team has state-of-the art training facilities, medical care, and analytics research. They play in one of the biggest media markets. The competition in the SE Division is awful. The Wizards become a top tier destination for free agents. They sign Giannis for the max after he concludes that Milwaukee is too capped out to put a competitive team around him.

2021-22 Season: The team starts Giannis, Beal, Bryant, Hachimura, and the 2020 lotto pick PG. Troy Brown is a solid jack-of-all-trades 6th man. For depth, they have their 2021 draft pick, a Room Minimum free agent, the bad contract leftover from the Wall trade, plus anyone else who stuck around from the guys drafted in the 2nd round of 2019, 2020, 2021 or acquired from that Lakers trade.

[montestewart]

^
"The Confessions of a Wizards Fan"

Looks better than anything I can come up with, too tired to try. Most of the interest and variability will be in the margins, in the shades of difference made further down the rotation. If all the draft picks, small trades, small FA signings work out, it's a contender. If none do, it falls apart. That is where Sheppard can further set himself apart from EG.

[pcbothwel]

.....
So. Assuming these three things. That the team has a plan. That they intend to keep Beal. That they expect Wall to fully recover. and their plan is to build around those two. If so, what sort of team do you think the team will build? Given their roster moves so far, are their any hints of the sort of team they expect to build with a Beal, Wall, Bryant, Hachimura foundation?

And if you were building a team and had to keep those two, no trades, what sort of team would you try to build around them?

I've got my answers but will follow up later.

1) The big picture/strategy is they are trying to accomplish is making DC a premier destination Franchise in retaining players and signing FA's. You can already see them making that push, but its going to take a couple years to truly institutionalize. I love most all their hires and decisions this summer, so we'll see where that goes in the coming years. Which takes us to your more specific scenario/question and out of strategic and more tactical...

*** I use numbers to describe hierarchy of talent and numbers to describe skill set. 1 is All-NBA 1st option. 2 is AS caliber 2nd option. A is all around player that can fit in with anybody. B is more specific skill set.
I.E. Giannis and Kawhi are 1A players. Primary scorers/All-NBA players that can do everything. They can fit in with anybody. Simmons ceiling appears to be 1B as he could be borderline All-NBA, but his shooting deficiencies always require other players with a specific skill set to surround him. Think young Lebron/young Giannis or Prime Wall.

2) With Beal on board you have a 2A player that MIGHT be able to take one more step and become 1A. Someone who can pass, score, defend, and lead on & off the court. He doesnt have the sheer talent like a Giannis, but his skill set, production, and leadership are enough to get you in the conversation if you have the right support pieces.

3) Wall in his prime was a 1B because of his skill set/lack of efficiency. His age/injury make him a 2B at best, but a low end 2nd option is still really good and a borderline AS caliber player.

4) Having a 1/2A primary scorer/leader and a 2B player in Wall gets you in the discussion to make the playoffs/2nd round... but the 3rd piece is the wild card....

Rui, Brown, Bryant: I see Brown as a poor mans Iggy and a really solid 4th/5th starter that does a little bit of everything. A WD40 type of player that keeps the machine moving by defending, passing, cutting, etc.
Bryant looks to be on the fast track to being a top 10 NBA Center by the end of the year. I see a more athletic Valanciunas that is shooting the 3 early in his career. Dangerous player with great energy

The wild card is Rui and where I think the FO is looking. I think he is Danilo Gallinari, with a little more upside due to physical tools/mentality. At 22, Gallo put up (per36) 16 & 5 on a TS of 60%... I expect similar from Rui.

These young guys have strong skills and a great makeup...I want to see them with Beal this year. Because it could really make next summer going into Beals final year VERY interesting.

Im really excited that none of our young players or Beal are "Personality Projects". They all show up with a lunch pale ready to defend, run the court, work hard, etc. I'll take that team identity and see where it gets us. We could very well have a year similar to LAC or Indiana last year.
High IQ, efficient scoring, and able to defend/switch....
Our 2020 pick could really be a cherry on top.

[doclinkin]

The one obvious pattern in the Tommy Sheppard era is that he was unwilling to sign or extend anyone past 2021 with the exception of Thomas Bryant. It's possible that it was simply because there were no free agents that he felt were worth signing long term at a market price, but I suspect that there is a plan in place, or at least a hope in place, of trying to get under the cap in 2021 to make a play in free agency.

But if you look at the long term salary situation, the only way to get a big free agent in 2021 is to move John Wall. All the PR coming out right now is that the team loves John Wall and wants him to be a Wizard for life, so I don't know what to believe.

Right. Excellent post.

I think for now we have to take them at their word. If John Wall comes back healthy and plays well I think the team intends to run with what we've got. That said, I would suggest we operate under different rules than other teams. If we are anything close to a contender, or at least highly competitive with a Beal/Wall core, then history has proven that ownership is willing to pay the luxury tax. From history and the intent of their front office reset it seems they want to change the reputation of the franchise and would see some expenses in the labor column as priming the pump for future success and recruiting free agents etc. Seed money for growing a dynasty or changing the reputation of the team leaguewide and in a new way of doing business. I think the Capitals championship stimulated the appetite for the organization to win. Recalling always Ted's double bottom line. He's loyal, and wants to stick with his guys as long as he can, if he can make it work with this core then the team has the funding and will to do so. I think that is the mandate that Tommy is working with.

So. If we take them as honest and include the concept that they are willing to fund all moves necessary to make it work: What is the best team we can build around a Beal/Wall core?

[nate33]

I like that Danillo Gallinari comparison.

[doclinkin]

I talked about it in the Bertans thread. But I think we are deliberately building a team with a Beal Wall core in mind. I think the moves they have made suggest how they hope to build the team given the strengths and weaknesses of what we have.

Under the current rule set the strongest correlation between any of the four factors and success is shooting efficiency. In most cases nowadays the winner at the end of the game is the team that shoots better.

Our squad has done pretty well with this. Year after year we have posted good efficiency numbers on offense. In fact this year were the only team to miss the playoffs among the Top 10 most efficient scoring teams. We can score with anybody. But overall we lose since we do not rebound or defend well.

Yet in the offseason we did not address defense much at all. We recruited in the draft one of the most efficient high usage scorers in Hachimura. We passed on his teammate who was a rebounding and defending madman, but whose face-up game was in development. We traded for a 2nd round pick that added long ranged efficiency in Admiral (40% from three, improving every year) . Traded ghost space from our trade exception to land one of the most efficient long ranged forwards in the game in Bertans (42% from 3) and traded away the veteran interior defense and rebounding of Howard for the veteran long ranged forward CJ Miles. The centerpiece of the LA deal and first player mentioned was Moritz Wagner, a player who worked out well for us in the Draft process and who we followed since he was a highly efficient long range scorer in the NCAA and who we had been tracking since playing in junior leagues in Europe. The only free agent we reupped was our young efficient scoring Big who can shoot fairly well from outside, and is highly efficient in the paint, but who still needs work on defense.

Clearly spacing and efficient scoring is a point of emphasis.

Aside from scoring efficiency and outside gunners we added ballhandlers who distribute and attack on the interior. Fans and pundits wondered why signing Ish Smith was a priority early in the offseason. The knock on Smith has been that he is basically a junior John Wall. An attack and dish ballhandler who does not himself show great range or reliable outside shooting. My read is that this was a deliberate choice for the team. We wanted a player who simulated what Wall does well, so that when Wall returned we did not need an entirely different personnel package, and so that we could freely sub him in and out to manage the minutes of a player who is recovering from injury.

Consider who else we added in this same mold: the player formerly known as the King of the Fourth in IT who was notable for his driving attack game. Isaak Bonga a rangy pointforward from the German FIBA team who has a precocious if raw face-up game, good passing, decent handle, but no reliable outside stroke.

I agree that Wall at 100% of his former self still had flaws. But what he does well he's done at an elite level. The strength of his game was the John Wall Effect, where for every player he played with (except Otto Porter oddly) he managed to raise their efficiency by stepping on the court. People who cried doom at his latest injury seem to think his entire game was speed. They miss that he actually scored better when he reduced that down hill attack, when he added a change of speed to his game. They miss that he has lost a gear on that speed due to injury. They miss that he is a 6'4" point guard with length and strength and determination and a tough mindset and heart.

Most of all, they miss his vision, he was averaging 10 assists a game playing next to who? He was passing to players who have never been terribly efficient scorers. He was playing next to passive or lazy forwards like Keef. He raised Marcin Gortat into a P&R machine, despite hands of wood, no jump shot for pick and pop, no above the rim game. Every perimeter player he kicked to was suddenly atop the leaderboard in corner threes and many had career resurgence next to Wall.

So. Given Wall's weaknesses on that end (unreliable outside shot, turnovers from trying to force feed players or drive into a crowd to collect fouls) and if efficient scoring is your emphasis, how do you build a team that takes advantage of his strengths?

You give him space to operate on the interior, by giving him threats outside on all sides. You open up the interior and stretch the defense so that Wall's defender is a too-small or too-slow PG who has to run backwards as fast as Wall sprints forwards with that cockroach-quick acceleration. If he is no longer as fast, he is still fast, and still bigger than most of his match-ups. And he still can pass above the heads of most defenders.

You give him interior players who are in attack mode all the time. Neither Bryant not Hachimura pass much. When they get the ball their job is to dominate and humiliate. Both are high energy players who have tunnel vision on that end of the court. That is easier for an attack-mode PG to deal with than a passive player who loses you assists by passing up the open shot. If you have a good floor general, and good options next to you, you can trust that if you get the ball it is because you are the best option in the moment. Shoot it. Score. Both Hachimura and Bryant also have a developing face-up game that will work well in pick and pop once they learn to really commit to their picks and screens. Punish the defender. Make them shy. This will open things up not just on the inside for the ballhandler, but for the pick setter when their defender sags to defend the interior because they smeared the ballhandlers defender off the wipeboard, and also for the backdoor wing player who crashes the glass when the weakside defender sags to compensate. That pick becomes a hockey assist. Or a self-assist when the pick and pop game is working.

With outside shooting Bigs, roles open up for players like Troy Brown and Ish Smith and Isaak Bonga and possibly Jemerrio Jones. You can take advantage of a mismatch in size or speed or savvy and find lanes to attack or to get garbage points on putbacks and crashing the glass.

Meanwhile teams will load up to defend your alpha scorer in Bradley Beal, who will take advantage of every pick set, to run his defender through a Spartan obstacle course of screens to get open, and who has proven to be one of the most efficient drivers in the game. Beal will get his: points, free throws, assists if teams try to double. But with outside shooting Bigs someone will be open.

It's not how I would build the team. I saw the defense, 2pt efficiency and rebounding opportunities opening up early on in the GSW pace and space era. Toronto and the Bucks won the Championships and regular season with that mindset. But done well it will be an exciting brand of basketball even on nights when we lose. With young players deep at a few key positions and a mandate on player development more than wins, we ought to be able to tire out some teams with platoons of young high energy guys. Yes we have to bank on player development for future hopes, but the best skill in Scotty's resume has been exactly that. So win or lose we have a chance to get excited at the hopeful play of young players figuring it out in front of us.

So we lose, but we lose with hope intact. We add a defensive sensei and teach the team how to properly defend and rebound. And with the new lotto arrangement we can lose while trying to win instead of nakedly tanking. We lose with outside shooting from all positions, ballhandlers attacking and dishing to the open man, interior attackers who score with efficiency, and wave after wave of young players who are out there trying to figure out what can and cannot be done on the basketball court. But we are less likely to be stuck on the treadmill of mediocrity trying to win with vets on ending contracts, relying on that contract year effort as motivation. Instead we have young players who look to the example of a young vet like Beal in learning to play the right way win or lose.

And then you never know, we may land a generational talent. Which quite frankly has been any team's real hope of winning a championship and building a dynasty. Sure you may get rent-a-champs at times in history like Boston, Miami, Toronto. But durable dynastic championships come when a team lands a HOF talent and builds a team around them. Hopefully we land that guy next to our current all stars and the whole thing comes together nicely.

Anyway. That seems to be the plan for now.

[Dat2U]

Your 2020-21 Wizards.

G John Wall, Ish Smith, Justin Robinson
G Bradley Beal, Veteran FA
F Top 5 2020 pick, Troy Brown Jr.
F Rui Hachimura, Veteran FA, Admiral Schofield
C Thomas Bryant, Veteran FA

Maybe one of the Laker guys sticks or a guy like Garrison Mathews develops. Otherwise, this the group they will likely try to make a playoff run as they hope to have a healthy Wall, land 2 strong Fs in back to back drafts and likely in their opinion, have the roster in better shape than its ever been previously under EG.

I don't necessarily agree with retooling around Wall/Beal but this is clearly the direction Shepp/Leonsis have agreed to.

[doclinkin]

Your 2020-21 Wizards.

G John Wall, Ish Smith, Justin Robinson
G Bradley Beal, Veteran FA
F Top 5 2020 pick, Troy Brown Jr.
F Rui Hachimura, Veteran FA, Admiral Schofield
C Thomas Bryant, Veteran FA

Maybe one of the Laker guys sticks or a guy like Garrison Mathews develops. Otherwise, this the group they will likely try to make a playoff run as they hope to have a healthy Wall, land 2 strong Fs in back to back drafts and likely in their opinion, have the roster in better shape than its ever been previously under EG.

I don't necessarily agree with retooling around Wall/Beal but this is clearly the direction Shepp/Leonsis have agreed to.

Where you have veteran free agents, seems to me they plan to have developing young talent. It looks like they are expecting to draft the future and constantly add second rounders to see if they can luck out by volume and outsmart or out analyze other front offices.

[Dat2U]

Your 2020-21 Wizards.

G John Wall, Ish Smith, Justin Robinson
G Bradley Beal, Veteran FA
F Top 5 2020 pick, Troy Brown Jr.
F Rui Hachimura, Veteran FA, Admiral Schofield
C Thomas Bryant, Veteran FA

Maybe one of the Laker guys sticks or a guy like Garrison Mathews develops. Otherwise, this the group they will likely try to make a playoff run as they hope to have a healthy Wall, land 2 strong Fs in back to back drafts and likely in their opinion, have the roster in better shape than its ever been previously under EG.

I don't necessarily agree with retooling around Wall/Beal but this is clearly the direction Shepp/Leonsis have agreed to.

Where you have veteran free agents, seems to me they plan to have developing young talent. It looks like they are expecting to draft the future and constantly add second rounders to see if they can luck out by volume and outsmart or out analyze other front offices.

I think development takes a backseat to winning in 20-21 and doing everything to impress upon Beal that the Wizards are ready to win that year.

I'm sure they'll continue to add 2nd round picks and guys overlooked by other front offices in roster spots 12-15 however Beal's own timeline is not likely in line with a protracted, patient rebuild effort and giving tons of minutes to unproven guys.

[Dat2U]

Actually piggybacking off the Hachimura selection and the Wizards looking to increase their international footprint I can see Deni Avdija from Israel getting a real strong look in next years draft. He'd also fill a need.

G John Wall, Ish Smith, Justin Robinson
G Bradley Beal
F Deni Avdija, Troy Brown Jr.
F Rui Hachimura, ... , Admiral Schofield
C Thomas Bryant

[doclinkin]

Actually piggybacking off the Hachimura selection and the Wizards looking to increase their international footprint I can see Deni Avdija from Israel getting a real strong look in next years draft. He'd also fill a need.

G John Wall, Ish Smith, Justin Robinson
G Bradley Beal
F Deni Avdija, Troy Brown Jr.
F Rui Hachimura, ... , Admiral Schofield
C Thomas Bryant

Yeah many of the players they’ve picked up have international experience and FIBA play.
Bertans —Latvia
Hachimura —Japan
Bonga — Germany
Wagner — Germany
Tarik Philip — Britain

Join Mahinmi of France.

I wouldn’t be surprised if the next coach has international experience and success.

[dangermouse]

This thread has me feeling optimistic

I think we are missing that 3&D small forward who can guard multiple positions, before we can really talk about going deep in the playoffs. Someone like Ariza, in his original Wizards run. Bazemore is a bit rich but he would be the pick of who was available, before he was traded to Blazers. Covington would be another good option. There's plenty of good 3 & D guys out there.

Or we could draft someone ala Ingles in Utah.

Apart from depth, to me its the one obvious hole. I like TBJ, but just like Dat i dont see him as a starter on a playoff team. He'd be a great 6th man at SF/SG, you could probably even plug him in at backup PG if the need arose and he'd be better than a lot of backup PGs

[gambitx777]

So the young guys? Rui, brown and Bryant are a s as good of a core of prospects as most of the league. Bonga is nice and young and long and crafty, but not a blue chip, yet. We have a couple good cheap Gamble guys too. Bertins is an interesting vet, young still but been around. he could be the adorable vet who we keep signing on cheap deals guy. It and ish are ok vets to have around the kids. Ian and miles are cap holds more or less. Then you have Beal, the prized Shelby GT and wall the Camaro that your dumb as son in law rammed into a tree and your cousin bubba says he can fix good as new. You are riding the Shelby till you gotta sell it and hoping that bubba can actually get the other car running good enough that you don't loose your ass on it years from now.

Sent from my SM-G965U1 using RealGM mobile app

[payitforward]

Oh man, is it ever going to be amusing to look back at this thread! Wow!! Mindblowingly wow...!

This would typify the "thinking" in this thread: "I think (Rui) is Danilo Gallinari, with a little more upside due to physical tools/mentality. At 22, Gallo put up (per36) 16 & 5 on a TS of 60%... I expect similar from Rui."

That is 100% -- no, make that 200% -- fantasy & has no relationship of any kind whatever to any reality. Could Rui turn out to be as good as Gallo? Of course that's possible. It's also possible that he turns out as bad as... fill in any name you want.

Then there's the fantasy that our having acquired the expiring Davis Bertans indicates the style of player we want. Here is the most notable fact about Bertans: he was available FREE.

We had 5 players; we had no assets to use to acquire any more players via trade. We had no cap room to speak of either. Bertans fit the bill -- he is pretty cheap, & he cost us nothing to acquire. Rinse & repeat for the guys who came in the Lakers trade.

Ditto the idea that we are going to "outthink" the competition, because we hired a bunch of guys in the last 3 weeks! Why don't we wait until we see that they are competent at all before putting a crown on their collective head.

Lordy!

[payitforward]

Right now, we have exactly one positive data point to apply in judging this FO -- one and no more -- namely, that Tommy Sheppard insisted that we pick up Thomas Bryant. That's it. Were it not for that, we would have no reason at all to think anything in particular about Tommy either way.

(Of course if we can give Sheppard credit for the pick of Troy Brown, then we will have another positive data point -- if, that is, Troy turns into the 15th best player (or better) to come into the league via the 2018 draft (or undrafted that year). Otherwise, no -- & if Tommy wasn't responsible for picking Troy, then his development will not reflect on this FO.)

[pcbothwel]

Oh man, is it ever going to be amusing to look back at this thread! Wow!! Mindblowingly wow...!

This would typify the "thinking" in this thread: "I think (Rui) is Danilo Gallinari, with a little more upside due to physical tools/mentality. At 22, Gallo put up (per36) 16 & 5 on a TS of 60%... I expect similar from Rui."

That is 100% -- no, make that 200% -- fantasy & has no relationship of any kind whatever to any reality. Could Rui turn out to be as good as Gallo? Of course that's possible. It's also possible that he turns out as bad as... fill in any name you want.

Then there's the fantasy that our having acquired the expiring Davis Bertans indicates the style of player we want. Here is the most notable fact about Bertans: he was available FREE.

We had 5 players; we had no assets to use to acquire any more players via trade. We had no cap room to speak of either. Bertans fit the bill -- he is pretty cheap, & he cost us nothing to acquire. Rinse & repeat for the guys who came in the Lakers trade.

Ditto the idea that we are going to "outthink" the competition, because we hired a bunch of guys in the last 3 weeks! Why don't we wait until we see that they are competent at all before putting a crown on their collective head.

Lordy!

Oh dont worry there chief...Ill be back to quote this in the next 2 years if not this season.
Rui will certainly surpass Gallo. He is equally skilled on offense with higher upside on defense.

I actually think he'll be a much better scorer, but not quite the playmaker/passer...which is why the Kawhi comp (Offense Only) fits so well.

[prime1time]

Oh man, is it ever going to be amusing to look back at this thread! Wow!! Mindblowingly wow...!

This would typify the "thinking" in this thread: "I think (Rui) is Danilo Gallinari, with a little more upside due to physical tools/mentality. At 22, Gallo put up (per36) 16 & 5 on a TS of 60%... I expect similar from Rui."

That is 100% -- no, make that 200% -- fantasy & has no relationship of any kind whatever to any reality. Could Rui turn out to be as good as Gallo? Of course that's possible. It's also possible that he turns out as bad as... fill in any name you want.

Then there's the fantasy that our having acquired the expiring Davis Bertans indicates the style of player we want. Here is the most notable fact about Bertans: he was available FREE.

We had 5 players; we had no assets to use to acquire any more players via trade. We had no cap room to speak of either. Bertans fit the bill -- he is pretty cheap, & he cost us nothing to acquire. Rinse & repeat for the guys who came in the Lakers trade.

Ditto the idea that we are going to "outthink" the competition, because we hired a bunch of guys in the last 3 weeks! Why don't we wait until we see that they are competent at all before putting a crown on their collective head.

Lordy!

Rui will be better than Gallinari. Gallinari is soft and a terrible defender. His average Defensive Box Plus/Minus is -1.2 for his career. And for his last 4 years it's been -1.8, -2.1, -1.5 and -1.2. Gallinari is a player that you have to actively hide on defense. But, to be clear, not only do I think Rui will be a much better defender than Gallinari, I think he'll be a better offensive player too. My thoughts are in the Rui's thread so I'm not going to rehash them here. I'll also point out that I expect Rui to be a better rebounder than Gallinari. Gallinari for his career averaged 4.9 rebounds a game.

As far as the team we are building, from a macro perspective it is pretty straight forward. Wall and Beal are on max deals. So, now we are going to build a team with rookie contracts and Wall/Beal. Tbh, most of the team is already locked in. We have Wall and Beal obviously. Thomas Bryant will be our center. Rui will be our 3/4 depending on what he plays. So that leaves one position open. Troy Brown Jr. might claim it but it's still up in the air.

I think the team will be solid because it is built well. Rui and Bryant can both make 3's, finish at the rim and play defense. Thomas Bryant has been working out with Rico Hines this summer, and I expect to come back better than he was last year. Can this team reasonably expect to compete for a championship? If everything goes perfectly well, yes.

[Ruzious]

Actually piggybacking off the Hachimura selection and the Wizards looking to increase their international footprint I can see Deni Avdija from Israel getting a real strong look in next years draft. He'd also fill a need.

G John Wall, Ish Smith, Justin Robinson
G Bradley Beal
F Deni Avdija, Troy Brown Jr.
F Rui Hachimura, ... , Admiral Schofield
C Thomas Bryant

Could Deni become Luka lite?

[Dat2U]

Actually piggybacking off the Hachimura selection and the Wizards looking to increase their international footprint I can see Deni Avdija from Israel getting a real strong look in next years draft. He'd also fill a need.

G John Wall, Ish Smith, Justin Robinson
G Bradley Beal
F Deni Avdija, Troy Brown Jr.
F Rui Hachimura, ... , Admiral Schofield
C Thomas Bryant

Could Deni become Luka lite?

He could with emphasis on the lite part. Like Luka he's 6-8 and has solid vision and passing skill. He also can make split second decisions with the ball in his hands.

He's also got decent quickness but he's not very long nor is he the savant with the ball Luka is. He's more solid and functional whereas Luka creates plays out of nothing. Like Luka he's streaky shooter with a propensity for off the dribble jumpers.

I see more solid than special. I view him as a fairly safe pick early in the process who does not quite have the elite skill of Luka.