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Rui Hachimura

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Re: Rui Hachimura 

Post#381 » by Kanyewest » Sat Aug 10, 2019 10:39 pm

payitforward wrote:I don't understand your point. Do you want to prove that some guys taken in R1 were better than some guys taken in R2? That by virtue of all that special intel they have, NBA Front Offices are not always wrong? That they spmetimes pick good players.

Correct. They are not always wrong. In fact, after #3 it becomes more or less random -- just like pinning the tail on the donkey. You're not always wrong when you do that either.

I meant to include Mario Hezonja rather than Vaughn in that list of bad players whom GMs chose high in the draft. You didn't just try to use Hezonja as an example of a "good" player taken high? Did you?

For that matter, is Porzingis "good?" Or is he a guy with "potential?" Who hasn't yet actually been good. Yep, that's the truth about him. Justise Winslow has been a below average NBA player so far.


I think you need to point out everyone who was taken to get a more accurate picture of the real value of the picks for every year. I thought you were simply cherry picking results to get to the answer you wanted. I do agree that 2nd rounders are valuable but not as much as your original post stated it to be.
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Re: Rui Hachimura 

Post#382 » by Illmatic12 » Mon Aug 12, 2019 9:52 am

FYI Hachimura is playing right now in Japan vs New Zealand friendly. This stream is kinda crappy but you can watch the game in full



I hope highlights are uploaded soon , Rui is putting on an offensive clinic vs this team , he has around 40pts so far! Just did a hesi dribble into a pull-up three lol

Hachimura honestly should’ve had 50+ but the refs were punishing him for being too strong , he had to sit the 3rd bc of ticky tack fouls that would be nothing in the NBA. The game was meaningless ofc but it’s good to get another look at our rookie displaying a confident skill set (though his hesitancy to take open threes continues to be a needed area of improvement imo)
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Re: Rui Hachimura 

Post#383 » by payitforward » Mon Aug 12, 2019 11:04 am

Kanyewest wrote:
payitforward wrote:I don't understand your point. Do you want to prove that some guys taken in R1 were better than some guys taken in R2? That by virtue of all that special intel they have, NBA Front Offices are not always wrong? That they spmetimes pick good players.

Correct. They are not always wrong. In fact, after #3 it becomes more or less random -- just like pinning the tail on the donkey. You're not always wrong when you do that either.

I meant to include Mario Hezonja rather than Vaughn in that list of bad players whom GMs chose high in the draft. You didn't just try to use Hezonja as an example of a "good" player taken high? Did you?

For that matter, is Porzingis "good?" Or is he a guy with "potential?" Who hasn't yet actually been good. Yep, that's the truth about him. Justise Winslow has been a below average NBA player so far.

I think you need to point out everyone who was taken to get a more accurate picture of the real value of the picks for every year. I thought you were simply cherry picking results to get to the answer you wanted. I do agree that 2nd rounders are valuable but not as much as your original post stated it to be.

Fair enough, except... that wasn't my point.

What I was doing was debunking the idea that NBA teams have "special intel" that enables them to do a better job than an "amateur" at picking guys in the draft in an order that reflects (to any degree whatever) how they will do as NBA players. After pick #3, no they do not.

Thus, the idea that the "special intel" we had on Rui Hachimura, that would indicate him having a much higher likelihood of success than draft analysts thought when they projected him down in the 2d half of R1 or lower, is BS pure and simple.

Rui may still turn out well. Keldon Johnson, picked #29, may turn out well. Anyone might. After pick #3 it's more or less random (& after you deny that, it will still be more or less random), which is why a) you should never focus on one guy ("we've had Rui in our sights for years") & b) trading down is always a good strategy after pick #3 ("we considered trading down, but we were afraid we might not get Rui").
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Re: Rui Hachimura 

Post#384 » by JWizmentality » Mon Aug 12, 2019 12:01 pm

Illmatic12 wrote:FYI Hachimura is playing right now in Japan vs New Zealand friendly. This stream is kinda crappy but you can watch the game in full



I hope highlights are uploaded soon , Rui is putting on an offensive clinic vs this team , he has around 40pts so far! Just did a hesi dribble into a pull-up three lol

Hachimura honestly should’ve had 50+ but the refs were punishing him for being too strong , he had to sit the 3rd bc of ticky tack fouls that would be nothing in the NBA. The game was meaningless ofc but it’s good to get another look at our rookie displaying a confident skill set (though his hesitancy to take open threes continues to be a needed area of improvement imo)


His confidence is another level when he's "the man" on the team. His mid range game already elite. :o
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Re: Rui Hachimura 

Post#385 » by Kanyewest » Mon Aug 12, 2019 12:27 pm

payitforward wrote:
Kanyewest wrote:
payitforward wrote:I don't understand your point. Do you want to prove that some guys taken in R1 were better than some guys taken in R2? That by virtue of all that special intel they have, NBA Front Offices are not always wrong? That they spmetimes pick good players.

Correct. They are not always wrong. In fact, after #3 it becomes more or less random -- just like pinning the tail on the donkey. You're not always wrong when you do that either.

I meant to include Mario Hezonja rather than Vaughn in that list of bad players whom GMs chose high in the draft. You didn't just try to use Hezonja as an example of a "good" player taken high? Did you?

For that matter, is Porzingis "good?" Or is he a guy with "potential?" Who hasn't yet actually been good. Yep, that's the truth about him. Justise Winslow has been a below average NBA player so far.

I think you need to point out everyone who was taken to get a more accurate picture of the real value of the picks for every year. I thought you were simply cherry picking results to get to the answer you wanted. I do agree that 2nd rounders are valuable but not as much as your original post stated it to be.

Fair enough, except... that wasn't my point.

What I was doing was debunking the idea that NBA teams have "special intel" that enables them to do a better job than an "amateur" at picking guys in the draft in an order that reflects (to any degree whatever) how they will do as NBA players. After pick #3, no they do not.

Thus, the idea that the "special intel" we had on Rui Hachimura, that would indicate him having a much higher likelihood of success than draft analysts thought when they projected him down in the 2d half of R1 or lower, is BS pure and simple.

Rui may still turn out well. Keldon Johnson, picked #29, may turn out well. Anyone might. After pick #3 it's more or less random (& after you deny that, it will still be more or less random), which is why a) you should never focus on one guy ("we've had Rui in our sights for years") & b) trading down is always a good strategy after pick #3 ("we considered trading down, but we were afraid we might not get Rui").


OK got it. I understand your point of view that a trade down would have maximized value. But I also understand the Wizards in that according to Tommy Shepherd, they had Rui as high as #5 on their board. So a trade down from their point of view would probably command more than what the #9 pick.

Let's see if the Wizards can buck the trend trend which hasn't yielded an all star player since 2012.
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Re: Rui Hachimura 

Post#386 » by Kanyewest » Mon Aug 12, 2019 12:28 pm

Rui Hachimura Full Highlights vs New Zealand - 35 Pts (13/17 FG, 2/2 3PT), 5 Rebs, 3 Asts, 2 Stls in 27 minutes
https://streamable.com/lq9et
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Re: Rui Hachimura 

Post#387 » by payitforward » Mon Aug 12, 2019 12:37 pm

Their point of view is also irrelevant. What matters is only how you get the most value out of the draft.

If Rui Hachimura turns out to deliver more value than, say, trading w/ SA & taking the combination of Brandon Clarke, Keldon Johnson & some guy taken in R2 (e.g. Quinndary Weatherspoon), then it would have been a mistake to trade down. If he doesn't then it would have been a good idea to trade down.

If picking Rui turns out to deliver more value than the combination of Brandon Clarke & Grant Williams, or one of those two plus Dylan Windler & Carsen Edwards (either way via trading w/ the Celtics for #s 20 & 22), then it would have been a mistake to trade down. If he doesn't then it would have been a good idea to trade down.

Where they had Rui on their board is completely irrelevant. The fact that they have an idea doesn't mean it's a good idea.

Naturally, since what's done is done & I'm a Wizards fan, I hope Rui turns out to be an all star!
Remember -- if you don't like the post above: blame Doc not me.
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Re: Rui Hachimura 

Post#388 » by nate33 » Mon Aug 12, 2019 12:46 pm

Kanyewest wrote:Rui Hachimura Full Highlights vs New Zealand - 35 Pts (13/17 FG, 2/2 3PT), 5 Rebs, 3 Asts, 2 Stls in 27 minutes
https://streamable.com/lq9et

Basically, he could score whenever he wanted. Total domination. And that mid range step back is going to be a shot he can get whenever he wants. I'm starting to see the Kawhi Leonard comparison (on offense).

In general, you don't want to base your game on a midrange shot, but if you can hit that shot at a 50% clip when well defended, then that's a whole different story.
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Re: Rui Hachimura 

Post#389 » by Kanyewest » Mon Aug 12, 2019 1:05 pm

payitforward wrote:Their point of view is also irrelevant. What matters is only how you get the most value out of the draft.

If Rui Hachimura turns out to deliver more value than, say, trading w/ SA & taking the combination of Brandon Clarke, Keldon Johnson & some guy taken in R2 (e.g. Quinndary Weatherspoon), then it would have been a mistake to trade down. If he doesn't then it would have been a good idea to trade down.

If picking Rui turns out to deliver more value than the combination of Brandon Clarke & Grant Williams, or one of those two plus Dylan Windler & Carsen Edwards (either way via trading w/ the Celtics for #s 20 & 22), then it would have been a mistake to trade down. If he doesn't then it would have been a good idea to trade down.

Where they had Rui on their board is completely irrelevant. The fact that they have an idea doesn't mean it's a good idea.

Naturally, since what's done is done & I'm a Wizards fan, I hope Rui turns out to be an all star!


Hard disagree but we have to agree to disagree. If Rui is really graded as a tier 1 caliber player (as a hypothetical), and the drop off is as far as 2 or 3 tiers, then a trade down doesn't make much sense, even if there is historical data to back your case. That being said, you are correct in stating that this draft will ultimately be judged by what happens.

By the way do you have any evidence that the Celtics were willing to give up that much to move up to #9. If it was indeed an optimal trade for the Wizards to trade down, it was probably more optimal for the Celtics to keep the picks. I believe they traded their 20th pick for more picks, and parlayed that to dump salary on Phoenix to sign Kemba while receiving a protected first rounder.
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Re: Rui Hachimura 

Post#390 » by JWizmentality » Mon Aug 12, 2019 2:39 pm

Kanyewest wrote:
payitforward wrote:Their point of view is also irrelevant. What matters is only how you get the most value out of the draft.

If Rui Hachimura turns out to deliver more value than, say, trading w/ SA & taking the combination of Brandon Clarke, Keldon Johnson & some guy taken in R2 (e.g. Quinndary Weatherspoon), then it would have been a mistake to trade down. If he doesn't then it would have been a good idea to trade down.

If picking Rui turns out to deliver more value than the combination of Brandon Clarke & Grant Williams, or one of those two plus Dylan Windler & Carsen Edwards (either way via trading w/ the Celtics for #s 20 & 22), then it would have been a mistake to trade down. If he doesn't then it would have been a good idea to trade down.

Where they had Rui on their board is completely irrelevant. The fact that they have an idea doesn't mean it's a good idea.

Naturally, since what's done is done & I'm a Wizards fan, I hope Rui turns out to be an all star!


Hard disagree but we have to agree to disagree. If Rui is really graded as a tier 1 caliber player (as a hypothetical), and the drop off is as far as 2 or 3 tiers, then a trade down doesn't make much sense, even if there is historical data to back your case. That being said, you are correct in stating that this draft will ultimately be judged by what happens.

By the way do you have any evidence that the Celtics were willing to give up that much to move up to #9. If it was indeed an optimal trade for the Wizards to trade down, it was probably more optimal for the Celtics to keep the picks. I believe they traded their 20th pick for more picks, and parlayed that to dump salary on Phoenix to sign Kemba while receiving a protected first rounder.


It would seem to me, with a lot of laptop GMs, is that they assume their trade would be agreed to if they were in "insert random GM here" shoes. It's all well and good to speculate what you would do in said circumstance but what actually happens when you pick up the phone and the person on the other end says..."No". :-?
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Re: Rui Hachimura 

Post#391 » by prime1time » Mon Aug 12, 2019 2:42 pm

Good clip. Like I've said in previous posts, he's going to be able to get his mid-range jumper at will in the NBA. If he can knock it down, I'll have no problem with him taking it. With us he'll be playing a different role because Brad is our main creator. Defenses are going to key in on Brad and it'll make his life so much easier. He'll get open 3's and the ability to attack defenders coming for a close-out. I can already see an issue developing where a defender will close out Rui hard, Rui will pump fake and then take a dribble or two in for a open jumper. Will we be ok with that? If you ask me I will. The goal is efficiency. As long as he shoots wide open 3's I'll give him latitude. He's such an efficient offensive player. But, to get excited for a bit, a player who can knock down midrange jumpers like that is bound to have a great 3-point shot.

But there are still concerns. What position will he play? Can he guard smaller guards consistently? Can he he guard big men? seriousCan he rebound? Can he provide any rim protection? I think Rui will be a dynamite pick. His offense will translate, but I have very legitimate concerns about his rebounding.

Averaging 20 ppg as a rookie is hard, but I can see Rui averaging high teens. Something like 17 ppg, 6 rbs, 2 assists, 1 steal and 1 block. Also, if you ask me every game for Rui in this tourney is basically must watch because as this game just showed, he might do something special and go off for like 50 or 60. You can count on maybe one or two hands, the number of players in the history of the game that could dominate a game from their midrange game alone. Rui is in special company.
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Re: Rui Hachimura 

Post#392 » by prime1time » Mon Aug 12, 2019 2:47 pm

payitforward wrote:Their point of view is also irrelevant. What matters is only how you get the most value out of the draft.

If Rui Hachimura turns out to deliver more value than, say, trading w/ SA & taking the combination of Brandon Clarke, Keldon Johnson & some guy taken in R2 (e.g. Quinndary Weatherspoon), then it would have been a mistake to trade down. If he doesn't then it would have been a good idea to trade down.

If picking Rui turns out to deliver more value than the combination of Brandon Clarke & Grant Williams, or one of those two plus Dylan Windler & Carsen Edwards (either way via trading w/ the Celtics for #s 20 & 22), then it would have been a mistake to trade down. If he doesn't then it would have been a good idea to trade down.

Where they had Rui on their board is completely irrelevant. The fact that they have an idea doesn't mean it's a good idea.

Naturally, since what's done is done & I'm a Wizards fan, I hope Rui turns out to be an all star!

If the draft is random after 3, why would any team ever trade up?
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Re: Rui Hachimura 

Post#393 » by nuposse04 » Mon Aug 12, 2019 10:14 pm

prime1time wrote:Good clip. Like I've said in previous posts, he's going to be able to get his mid-range jumper at will in the NBA. If he can knock it down, I'll have no problem with him taking it. With us he'll be playing a different role because Brad is our main creator. Defenses are going to key in on Brad and it'll make his life so much easier. He'll get open 3's and the ability to attack defenders coming for a close-out. I can already see an issue developing where a defender will close out Rui hard, Rui will pump fake and then take a dribble or two in for a open jumper. Will we be ok with that? If you ask me I will. The goal is efficiency. As long as he shoots wide open 3's I'll give him latitude. He's such an efficient offensive player. But, to get excited for a bit, a player who can knock down midrange jumpers like that is bound to have a great 3-point shot.

But there are still concerns. What position will he play? Can he guard smaller guards consistently? Can he he guard big men? seriousCan he rebound? Can he provide any rim protection? I think Rui will be a dynamite pick. His offense will translate, but I have very legitimate concerns about his rebounding.

Averaging 20 ppg as a rookie is hard, but I can see Rui averaging high teens. Something like 17 ppg, 6 rbs, 2 assists, 1 steal and 1 block. Also, if you ask me every game for Rui in this tourney is basically must watch because as this game just showed, he might do something special and go off for like 50 or 60. You can count on maybe one or two hands, the number of players in the history of the game that could dominate a game from their midrange game alone. Rui is in special company.


17-6-2-1-1 as rookie would take him playing 32-38 mins prolly, and hitting a good percentage. Brooks will get in the way of one of those probably.

I'd settle for 12-5-2-1-1 on decent efficiency
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Re: Rui Hachimura 

Post#394 » by payitforward » Tue Aug 13, 2019 2:00 am

prime1time wrote:If the draft is random after 3, why would any team ever trade up?

That's actually quite a good question! Yet, they do.

Let me turn it around, however. If the draft isn't random, why wouldn't SA, who had the #15 & 29 pick in 2011, have traded those 2 picks for the 4th pick in the draft?

If they'd had the opportunity should I assume you think they should have made the move?
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Re: Rui Hachimura 

Post#395 » by Ruzious » Tue Aug 13, 2019 4:20 am

Kanyewest wrote:Rui Hachimura Full Highlights vs New Zealand - 35 Pts (13/17 FG, 2/2 3PT), 5 Rebs, 3 Asts, 2 Stls in 27 minutes
https://streamable.com/lq9et

When he hit the cutter at 1:08, I'm thinking - "Ok Rui, stop pretending you're a smaller version of Giannis except with a better jump shot." Otherwise Pif is going to say - "He stinks because he only got 5 rebounds and zero blocks. Yousall are stupid, bow down to my greatness and humbility."
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Re: Rui Hachimura 

Post#396 » by Kanyewest » Tue Aug 13, 2019 4:47 am

Random note about the #15 pick. In the last 30 years since the 1979 draft, there have only been 3 players that have been picked to the all star team - but between them they have 3 MVPs and 2 Finals MVPs - Steve Nash, Kawhi Leonard, and Giannis. Dell Curry is also the father of a two time MVP, was also taken at 15.
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Re: Rui Hachimura 

Post#397 » by Ferulci » Tue Aug 13, 2019 3:17 pm

For those who want to see Rui highlights

People are forgetting the time where Masai were laughed at for taking Siakam, when some wanted Giannis to be a draft and stash because he only played 2nd division in Greece.
In the end, you don't draft to get good grades by ESPN or twitter scouts. You draft to get player that will contribute to winning. The higher the pick, the more you should shoot for the stars. I love Keldon Johnson but I can't see a single path to him being an all-star one day. That path exists for Hachimura.
Was Rui the good choice ? We'll know in 3 years but from a decision-making standpoint, I totally agree with taking him at 9th (I wanted my Bulls to take him at 7th so...).
Best case scenario ? He's a superstar, in the tier just below Zion.
Worst case ? He is a bust and Wizards wasted a 9th pick, which isn't the end of the world. Wizards will suck and get more chances to draft players with high potential next years.
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Re: Rui Hachimura 

Post#398 » by DCZards » Tue Aug 13, 2019 4:00 pm

Nice shooting exhibition put on by Rui in the game against New Zealand. Kid is very comfortable and confident in the midrange game. Also knocked down at least two 3pters.

Good to see Rui handle the ball so much...and attempt to take defenders off the dribble. That's an aspect of his game that needs improvement.

It's great to see the young guy playing some organized bball this summer. It will help his development.
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Re: Rui Hachimura 

Post#399 » by nate33 » Tue Aug 13, 2019 4:12 pm

I'm starting to think Rui might be better off at SF, at least early in his career. He's going to be able to get off that midrange shot against shorter SF's whenever he wants, and his bully ball post game will be more effective as well. His lack of consistent 3-point range won't be as much of an issue with Bertans and Bryant alongside him.

Defensively, I think he'll be fine at SF. He's got quick enough feet and good length.

The problem is that we have no backup power forwards or centers. Bertans and Bryant can't play 48 minutes a night.
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Re: Rui Hachimura 

Post#400 » by payitforward » Tue Aug 13, 2019 4:32 pm

Kanyewest wrote:
payitforward wrote:Their point of view is also irrelevant. What matters is only how you get the most value out of the draft.

If Rui Hachimura turns out to deliver more value than, say, trading w/ SA & taking the combination of Brandon Clarke, Keldon Johnson & some guy taken in R2 (e.g. Quinndary Weatherspoon), then it would have been a mistake to trade down. If he doesn't then it would have been a good idea to trade down.

If picking Rui turns out to deliver more value than the combination of Brandon Clarke & Grant Williams, or one of those two plus Dylan Windler & Carsen Edwards (either way via trading w/ the Celtics for #s 20 & 22), then it would have been a mistake to trade down. If he doesn't then it would have been a good idea to trade down.

Where they had Rui on their board is completely irrelevant. The fact that they have an idea doesn't mean it's a good idea.

Naturally, since what's done is done & I'm a Wizards fan, I hope Rui turns out to be an all star!


Hard disagree but we have to agree to disagree. If Rui is really graded as a tier 1 caliber player (as a hypothetical), and the drop off is as far as 2 or 3 tiers, then a trade down doesn't make much sense, even if there is historical data to back your case....

All you are saying is that if Rui turns out to be better overall than the guys you'd get in a trade down then Rui is better overall than the guys you'd get in a trade-down. Duh. That's saying... nothing! :)

But, no matter what, you don't want to take the position you are taking -- because, unless absolutely no one taken from 10 down in the draft turns out to be better than Rui Hachimura, it makes you wrong!

Obviously, we don't know what we'd have gotten in a trade-down, though we have some ideas. But, we do know that we could have gotten, e.g. the #10 pick plus... something! That's how the world works, after all.

One common trade scenario was our #9 to Boston for their #s 20-22. That trade would have netted us Brandon Clarke & Grant Williams. Happy to bet any amount of $$ that those guys combined are better than Rui.

It would also have netted us Brandon Clarke, either Dylan Windler or Keldon Johnson, & Carsen Edwards. Or, if you weren't convinced by Brandon Clarke, you can make that Grant Williams, Windler or Johnson, & Edwards.

I make that trade all day every day as often as I can. Still... Rui Hachimura might be better than all of them combined. Anything's possible. & wouldn't that be great!

But... I'd be willing to put money on the other direction.

Of course, who knows, every single one of them on both sides of the trade, from Rui to Edwards, might all turn out to be busts! Or everyone but Carsen Edwards, say.... & obviously that alone would justify the trade.

Kanyewest wrote:That being said, you are correct in stating that this draft will ultimately be judged by what happens.

Like most things in the world, you bet...!

Kanyewest wrote:By the way do you have any evidence that the Celtics were willing to give up that much to move up to #9. If it was indeed an optimal trade for the Wizards to trade down, it was probably more optimal for the Celtics to keep the picks. I believe they traded their 20th pick for more picks, and parlayed that to dump salary on Phoenix to sign Kemba while receiving a protected first rounder.

Obviously, neither I nor anyone else could say for sure. But, it does seem likely. Ainge was known to want to trade one of the picks, & what he got wasn't better than getting #9. & there were other deals available as well.

Anyway, getting to be ancient history. So, we'll pay no attention when Brandon Clarke becomes a star, Grant Williams becomes an above average starter, Keldon Williams does too. Dylan Windler becomes a productive journeyman and so does Carsen Edwards.

Instead, we'll be all in on Rui Hachimura! Here's hoping he's the next Kawhi Leonard! Feel free to mock me if so.
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