Wizards 2019 Offseason Thread - Part 2

[pcbothwel]

Any chance this guy regains his spark and puts up solid numbers again?

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Yes... Even if you take out that ridiculous 16/17 season with Boston. He was a per 36 of 21/6/3 on a TS of 57% and a 2:1 AST:TOV ratio.

Any semblance of that becomes a really good 6th man making the vet min. I see a couple of great fits for him assuming he performs.
- Boston would be a great story and they need a backup to Kemba. They have their pick or the Milwaukee pick.
- Milwaukee has the Pacers 1st
- Philly. Great compliment to Simmons and they have the Knicks 2020/2021 2nds

My guess is that he has something left and will put significant numbers with the Wiz, but... I don't see him being significant trade bait. Look at how little it cost the Wiz to get him, and he's an unusual player, so teams will likely be concerned that he won't fit well.

He had other offers, but the Wiz have a clear hole at PG. He wanted playing time and he'll get it.
I see no reason why he couldn't garner a high 2nd. Rodney hood and Justin Holiday each netted 2 2nds at the deadline.

[Ruzious]

Yes... Even if you take out that ridiculous 16/17 season with Boston. He was a per 36 of 21/6/3 on a TS of 57% and a 2:1 AST:TOV ratio.

Any semblance of that becomes a really good 6th man making the vet min. I see a couple of great fits for him assuming he performs.
- Boston would be a great story and they need a backup to Kemba. They have their pick or the Milwaukee pick.
- Milwaukee has the Pacers 1st
- Philly. Great compliment to Simmons and they have the Knicks 2020/2021 2nds

My guess is that he has something left and will put significant numbers with the Wiz, but... I don't see him being significant trade bait. Look at how little it cost the Wiz to get him, and he's an unusual player, so teams will likely be concerned that he won't fit well.

He had other offers, but the Wiz have a clear hole at PG. He wanted playing time and he'll get it.
I see no reason why he couldn't garner a high 2nd. Rodney hood and Justin Holiday each netted 2 2nds at the deadline.

Ok, maybe a 2nd rounder is possible. He signed for 2.3 million. That tells me he had next to no interest around the NBA. Hood and Holiday are players who you can easily plug into specific roles - not sure you can do that with IT.

[nate33]

My guess is that he has something left and will put significant numbers with the Wiz, but... I don't see him being significant trade bait. Look at how little it cost the Wiz to get him, and he's an unusual player, so teams will likely be concerned that he won't fit well.

He had other offers, but the Wiz have a clear hole at PG. He wanted playing time and he'll get it.
I see no reason why he couldn't garner a high 2nd. Rodney hood and Justin Holiday each netted 2 2nds at the deadline.

Ok, maybe a 2nd rounder is possible. He signed for 2.3 million. That tells me he had next to no interest around the NBA. Hood and Holiday are players who you can easily plug into specific roles - not sure you can do that with IT.

I think you're both right.

Clearly, based on his price tag, nobody would be willing to sacrifice any assets to acquire him as of right now. They have no reason to believe that he's anything other than the broken down guy who did nothing in Denver last year. But if he is fully healthy and can play as well as he did in his first few years in Sacramento (I figure the fluke Boston year is aiming a bit too high), then there are teams that might want him for a 2nd round pick.

Ruzious does have a point that he's a funny fit on most established playoff teams. Being a defensive liability is going to be a real problem for any playoff team looking to acquire him. Thomas can theoretically overcome his defensive liabilities by being extremely good on offense with a high usage rate, but most playoff teams aren't looking for a high usage rate guy on a last-minute Trade Deadline acquisition. Generally speaking, Thomas has the characteristics of a typical "good player on a bad team" type of guy. His Boston stint was an exception, but they had a team perfectly suited to accommodate Thomas' idiosyncrasies.

The best chance to trade him might be if a team lost a starting PG to a moderate injury and was looking to ride Isaiah Thomas through February and March as an emergency stopgap. For example, if Portland was in a tight playoff race in early February and Lillard went down for 8 weeks, would they want Thomas?

[payitforward]

He had other offers, but the Wiz have a clear hole at PG. He wanted playing time and he'll get it.
I see no reason why he couldn't garner a high 2nd. Rodney hood and Justin Holiday each netted 2 2nds at the deadline.

Ok, maybe a 2nd rounder is possible. He signed for 2.3 million. That tells me he had next to no interest around the NBA. Hood and Holiday are players who you can easily plug into specific roles - not sure you can do that with IT.

I think you're both right.

Clearly, based on his price tag, nobody would be willing to sacrifice any assets to acquire him as of right now. They have no reason to believe that he's anything other than the broken down guy who did nothing in Denver last year. But if he is fully healthy and can play as well as he did in his first few years in Sacramento (I figure the fluke Boston year is aiming a bit too high), then there are teams that might want him for a 2nd round pick.

Ruzious does have a point that he's a funny fit on most established playoff teams. Being a defensive liability is going to be a real problem for any playoff team looking to acquire him. Thomas can theoretically overcome his defensive liabilities by being extremely good on offense with a high usage rate, but most playoff teams aren't looking for a high usage rate guy on a last-minute Trade Deadline acquisition. Generally speaking, Thomas has the characteristics of a typical "good player on a bad team" type of guy. His Boston stint was an exception, but they had a team perfectly suited to accommodate Thomas' idiosyncrasies.

The best chance to trade him might be if a team lost a starting PG to a moderate injury and was looking to ride Isaiah Thomas through February and March as an emergency stopgap. For example, if Portland was in a tight playoff race in early February and Lillard went down for 8 weeks, would they want Thomas?

Good thinking, pcbothwei!!

For sure, his '16-17 for Boston was an outlier -- but people will still have it in mind when they think about him at the trade deadline. But... first he has to play well for us. If he does that, & Tommy deals him, that's a feather in Mr. Sheppard's cap!! Also in pcbothwei's!

[gambitx777]

Why????

Any chance this guy regains his spark and puts up solid numbers again?

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He looked real good in that workout video with Thomas Bryant a few weeks ago. If he really is healthy and in top shape, he could be a significant difference maker. Given our low expectations at that position, the unexpected emergence of a quality player at PG could translate into a lot more wins.

Heck, the Wizards might well have one of the best offenses in the league. Someone is going to have to rebound and defend though.

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[payitforward]

Why what, Gamby?

As to having "one of the best offenses in the league," I'd say there are a considerable number of uncertain variables in addition to IT -- & I'm sure nate agrees!

Still, if IT were to play at the average productivity of his first 4 seasons/9600+ minutes before 2016-17, he'd be a way above average starting PG. Not saying it'll happen... but the possibility does justify the veteran minimum bet on him. In that case, assuming he wound up starting, he, Beal & Bryant would be quite a good start on a way above average starting 5.

All you'd have to see is Rui at a RoY level & Troy Brown at a most-improved player level, & our first unit would be terrific. Bertans is an adequate, but not great back-up at one forward spot.

It's a fantasy, but so what?

Not to mention the big ski slope down to the likely level of the kids & marginal vets who make up the rest of the roster! Still... this is the time to dream; it'll be harder later.

[gambitx777]

So my question is, let's say wall comes back before the deadline and we get to dump him for something like James Johnson, dragic and Winslow/waiters or something like that. Would it be worth targeting D-lo from GS to pair with Beal?

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[gambitx777]

My way was aimed towards "someone has to play defence line" as an attempt at sarcasm .

Why what, Gamby?

As to having "one of the best offenses in the league," I'd say there are a considerable number of uncertain variables in addition to IT -- & I'm sure nate agrees!

Still, if IT were to play at the average productivity of his first 4 seasons/9600+ minutes before 2016-17, he'd be a way above average starting PG. Not saying it'll happen... but the possibility does justify the veteran minimum bet on him. In that case, assuming he wound up starting, he, Beal & Bryant would be quite a good start on a way above average starting 5.

All you'd have to see is Rui at a RoY level & Troy Brown at a most-improved player level, & our first unit would be terrific. Bertans is an adequate, but not great back-up at one forward spot.

It's a fantasy, but so what?

Not to mention the big ski slope down to the likely level of the kids & marginal vets who make up the rest of the roster! Still... this is the time to dream; it'll be harder later.

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[nate33]

So my question is, let's say wall comes back before the deadline and we get to dump him for something like James Johnson, dragic and Winslow/waiters or something like that. Would it be worth targeting D-lo from GS to pair with Beal?

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You are getting way ahead of yourself.

The Trade Deadline is in early February. There is no chance that Wall will have sufficient time to get healthy and play well enough to bring his trade value down to neutral by then. Heck, it's highly unlikely that he'll even see the court anytime in February.

The earliest Wall could conceivably be moved is next offseason. And it's highly doubtful that he'll be moved anytime before the Trade Deadline of the 2020-21 season.

[gambitx777]

Probably. But that's not what I asked! I am getting ahead of my self but that doesn't answer the questions that I asked.

So my question is, let's say wall comes back before the deadline and we get to dump him for something like James Johnson, dragic and Winslow/waiters or something like that. Would it be worth targeting D-lo from GS to pair with Beal?

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You are getting way ahead of yourself.

The Trade Deadline is in early February. There is no chance that Wall will have sufficient time to get healthy and play well enough to bring his trade value down to neutral by then. Heck, it's highly unlikely that he'll even see the court anytime in February.

The earliest Wall could conceivably be moved is next offseason. And it's highly doubtful that he'll be moved anytime before the Trade Deadline of the 2020-21 season.

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[nate33]

Probably. But that's not what I asked! I am getting ahead of my self but that doesn't answer the questions that I asked.

So my question is, let's say wall comes back before the deadline and we get to dump him for something like James Johnson, dragic and Winslow/waiters or something like that. Would it be worth targeting D-lo from GS to pair with Beal?

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You are getting way ahead of yourself.

The Trade Deadline is in early February. There is no chance that Wall will have sufficient time to get healthy and play well enough to bring his trade value down to neutral by then. Heck, it's highly unlikely that he'll even see the court anytime in February.

The earliest Wall could conceivably be moved is next offseason. And it's highly doubtful that he'll be moved anytime before the Trade Deadline of the 2020-21 season.

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Even if we somehow made Wall's contract vanish, how would we "target" Russell? What would we be giving Golden State for him?

But ultimately, the answer to your question is "no". If Beal was our only max player, and we were looking for another max player to join him, the last position I would seek would be another shooting guard.

[payitforward]

Anyway, we are not in a position to "target" any particular player. If we traded John, we'd be recognizing that we are a rebuilding team with 1 known outstanding player (Brad -- not one of the top 20 in the league but still extremely good), 1 outstanding prospect with a chance to join Brad as that kind of player), & a long list of unknowns after that.

What we need to do right now, by any means available to us (& they are not many), is acquire the best players we can. Above all, we should & would only be looking for guys in the first 1/3 of their career. Anyone else is a temporary stopgap or a one-off bargain too good to pass up.

One thing ought to be very clear -- a team like ours cannot get significantly better via trades. To get a good player in a trade, you have to give a good player. Of course there are exceptional situations, but they aren't to be counted on. Nor do I mean the fact that you can acquire a journeyman like Bertans for a trade exception. He's not good enough or young enough or signed long-term enough to help make us "significantly better."

One of the things Tommy said the day after the draft was, "We're going to build this thing the right way, slowly & patiently." Good.

[Ruzious]

So my question is, let's say wall comes back before the deadline and we get to dump him for something like James Johnson, dragic and Winslow/waiters or something like that. Would it be worth targeting D-lo from GS to pair with Beal?

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Pretty much no chance that anything like either of those things happen. Wall's not going to prove anything before the trade deadline - much less be tradable for a package that includes Winslow (regardless of what Pif thinks of him). And we don't have the assets to trade for Russell.

[nate33]

The guy that runs BBall Index thinks the Wizards will win 36 games and have a 35% chance of making the playoffs:

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He has the Wizards as the 10th best team in the East, ahead of Atlanta, Detroit, New York, Charlotte and Cleveland.

The FiveThirtyEight prediction posted a while ago had the Wizards as the 11th best team (behind Detroit), winning 32 games and a 24% chance at the playoffs. I'd say both statistical estimates are well ahead of the Wizards Forum consensus. Dat2U might have an aneurysm if he sees these projections.

[Eli Babak]

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[Kanyewest]

The guy that runs BBall Index thinks the Wizards will win 36 games and have a 35% chance of making the playoffs:

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He has the Wizards as the 10th best team in the East, ahead of Atlanta, Detroit, New York, Charlotte and Cleveland.

The FiveThirtyEight prediction posted a while ago had the Wizards as the 11th best team (behind Detroit), winning 32 games and a 24% chance at the playoffs. I'd say both statistical estimates are well ahead of the Wizards Forum consensus. Dat2U might have an aneurysm if he sees these projections.

The 538 projection would still be tied for the 5th worse record in the league (every Western Conference team is still supposed to finish ahead of us ). That would still leave Washington with a 42% chance to finish in the top 4 and and a 10.4% chance to finish with the #1 Pick. Compared to 52% and a 14% if the Wizards finished with one of the bottom 3 records.

From a quick glance, the Wizards would be projected to finish with the 9th worst record in the BBall index good enough for a 20% chance at a top 4 pick and 4.5% chance at the #1 pick.

[dckingsfan]

I think the Kings make the playoffs this year - so can we throw out what fivethirtyeight says

[gambitx777]

Man didn't even let him get to training camp. Harsh .good luck to him

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[nate33]

The 538 projection would still be tied for the 5th worse record in the league (every Western Conference team is still supposed to finish ahead of us ).

I know the West is much stronger than the East, but this just doesn't seem possible to me. I just don't see how the worst team in the West can finish ahead of 5 teams in the East. The West team has no cakewalk opponents in their conference while the East is full of them. A team like Memphis plays Cleveland, New York, Charlotte and Atlanta a total of 8 times. Meanwhile, the Wizards play them 14 or 15 times.

[payitforward]

Look where he has the Nets on that list....