Peaks project update: #16

LA Bird · Post #1 » by **LA Bird** » Sat Aug 17, 2019 4:54 pm

1) Michael Jordan 1990-91
2) LeBron James 2012-13
3) Wilt Chamberlain 1966-67
4) Shaquille O'Neal 1999-00
5) Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 1976-77
6) Tim Duncan 2002-03
7) Larry Bird 1985-86
8) Bill Russell 1963-64
9) Hakeem Olajuwon 1993-94
10) Magic Johnson 1986-87
11) Kevin Garnett 2003-04
12) Julius Erving 1975-76
13) Bill Walton 1976-77
14) Oscar Robertson 1963-64
15) Stephen Curry 2015-16

Please include at least 1 sentence of reasoning for each of your 3 picks. A simple list of names will not be counted.
If repeating votes from previous rounds, copy and paste the reasoning because "see previous thread for explanation" will not be counted as a valid vote.

Please submit your votes by 1 am August 20 Eastern Time

THE VOTING SYSTEM:

Everyone gives their 1st-ballot choice (4.5 points), 2nd-ballot choice (3 points), and 3rd-ballot choice (2 points). Highest point-total wins the round (24-hour run-off will then only be done in the unlikely event of a tie).
Players don't get credit for all the votes they receive in a round, we just count the votes (and the points) for the designated year.

So, you can use your 3 choices to vote for more than 1 season of the same player (if you think that the best 3 seasons among the players left belong all to the same player, nothing is stopping you from using all you 3 choices on that player), but you can't continue voting for other seasons of that player once he wins and gets his spot. The final list will be 1 season per player.

Thank you for your participation!

Spoiler:

freethedevil · Post #2 » by **freethedevil** » Sat Aug 17, 2019 4:57 pm

Anyone wanna make a case for jerry west?

E-Balla · Post #3 » by **E-Balla** » Sat Aug 17, 2019 5:43 pm

E-Balla wrote:1. 83 Moses Malone - The short version is that Moses was the best player in the league, on an historically great team, with great +/- estimates, and a gamebreaking ability on the offensive boards (averaged 6.5 offensive rebounds a game from 79 to 83). The gap between him and Curry who has that same argument (replace rebounding with 3 point shooting) is that outside of that one amazing ability Moses was still well above average at everything else. His jumper, defense (in 83 at least), and post game was already solid. His one weakness was his weak passing ability but it didn't hinder his chance to lead great or mediocre teams so I don't know how much it concerns me.

2. 17 Russell Westbrook - I'm on record since 2017 saying next to 09 LeBron this is the best season I've seen since I've watched basketball religiously. The short version here is that he averaged a 30 point triple double, made 200 three pointers, was the most clutch player ever (sidebar but this is one of my favorite posts in RealGM history, and it perfectly encapsulates exactly how clutch he was), and averaged 37/12/11 in the playoffs while destroying Houston, only losing because his team was the worst team I've ever seen in the playoffs without him on the floor. Unlike many here he had to also overcome horrible fitting teammates (they had the worst 3 point percentage in the league outside of him) and the worst coach in the league. Now those are things we can all agree on, the main argument against Westbrook is that he couldn't perform on a better team/contender. To that I say look at the year prior.

In 2016 Westbrook played next to KD and had a great squad around him. He was arguably the best player on the team averaging 24/8/10 for a team that was +7 in the regular season, but beat a +10 team in the second round, and went to 7 with a +11 team in the WCF. Overall in the playoffs the 2016 Thunder are the best team outside of the 09 Nuggets to miss the Finals, the 15th best team ever, and they played at a +13.4 level. Westbrook was the clear best player in their postseason run averaging 26/7/11 on 52 TS% to KD's 28/7/3 on 54 TS% and having clearly better +/- numbers than KD. Right there I'm coming to the conclusion that 2016 Westbrook is worthy of being on this list, but not this high.

The biggest gap in the game of Westbrook from 2016 to 2017 was his shooting. I think outside of that he didn't do anything he couldn't do otherwise. Westbrook's 200 3s made in 2017 was almost twice as much as his career high prior (101 in 2016), and his percentage (34%) was better than in ever (in 2016 he was 29.6%). Adding to that his improvement in 3 point shooting didn't seem like random chance. His FT% was also at a career high, and looking at his month to month shooting splits he was between 31.5% and 37.7% in each full month (so excluding April and October). That's compared to his 29.6% 3 point percentage in 2016. If Westbrook was as good a shooter in 2016 as in 2017 I think the 2016 Thunder are NBA Champions and one of the best ever so the argument that he wasn't capable of leading a team to a ring in 2017 is bogus to me.

3. 09 Dwyane Wade - I'll post more on this later as needed but the short version of his argument here is that he carried a team of nothing to great heights, put up amazing individual production, and we already know from other seasons he's good enough to lead a champion, be a sidekick, and absolutely dominate the very best defenses in league history. He's a floor raiser the level of the top 5ish guys here, just not a ceiling raiser on their level.

Any questions and I'm 100% down to answer.

No-more-rings · Post #4 » by **No-more-rings** » Sat Aug 17, 2019 6:02 pm

No-more-rings wrote:
1. 09' Wade- Carried a putrid supporting cast to 43 wins, with Wade on court they ran a 110.5 ORTG which would've been tied for 5th best in the league that year, which is actually something considering the Heat ran a slow defense-first type of pace. Without Wade, they were playing with the worst offense in the league by far.(99.4 ORTG). The Heat were -3.2 DRTG better with Wade on the court also. Heavy lifting on both ends of the court. Playoff performance could've been better(though 29/5/5 on 57 ts% and 26.3 PER is nothing to sneeze at), but Wade dealt with back spasms in the series and had to play nearly 39 mpg on high usage over the season just so his team could be competitive. I believe if Wade had a legit supporting cast in 09 and 10 these seasons would be viewed more highly than they are.

2. 06' Wade- In 06 with Wade on court the Heat ran a 112.3 ORTG which would've been the best in the league. With Wade sitting, they were again the worst offense in the league. Wade led the league in RAPM, NPI RAPM, and had an historical championship playoff run for a guard. I don't think anyone left quite had a title run like Wade's considering both numbers and competition.

So during Wade's playoff run he played the 7th ranked defense, 3rd ranked defense, 5th ranked defense and 11th best in that order. Aside from the bulls in the first round, absolutely destroyed the other 3 teams. In the ECF against the 5th ranked defense, 64 win, fresh off a finals trip Pistons, Wade averaged 26.7/5.2/5.5 on 68.4 ts%, and helped hold Rip Hamilton to 37.8% from the field and just 46.6 ts%(see videos below). In the finals, Wade put up a carry job-victory that was emulated by perhaps only Lebron, Duncan and Shaq. It doesn't make it necessarily better than all the others, just the load carried+lack of offensive help.

Footage is not the best of quality, but you can see it's him.

Watch on YouTube

Watch on YouTube

The argument for 06 is probably stronger than 09, but i think 09 could've gave you all that 06 did with more precise passing and better decision making.

3. 95 David Robinson- If KG is in, Drob probably shouldn’t be that far behind. Very arguably the best defender left, probably wins a ring if he doesn’t face someone better than himself. Kobe didn’t have that problem, he faced good teams but not an all timer like Hakeem close to his peak

liamliam1234 · Post #5 » by **liamliam1234** » Sat Aug 17, 2019 7:01 pm

Had a longer post, but phone crashed.

1. 2006 Wade
Incredible postseason performance. Still led league in regular season RAPM; strictly speaking he may have been a better regular season player in 2009-10, but his terrible team is a double-edged sword there, because how do we separate the number inflation from team need? In 2006 Wade elevated in the playoffs as Shaq wilted somewhat, and as was said above, few titles have involved a harder carry. Seeing as his peak was clearly from 2006-10 (with near peak years in 2005 and 2011, and kind-of 2012), I see no issue choosing the dominant postseason over the slightly more dominant regular season.

2. 1966 Jerry West
Jerry West has four years which could be in the conversation for this project, but seeing as I am unable to satisfactorily separate them, I will default to the current group consensus (but I do encourage people to look at 1968-70; are the missed games really that prohibitive for a peaks project?). Something I think goes under-mentioned: in eleven healthy postseasons, West played in the Finals for ten of them. Here, he scored an efficient 34 points per game and nearly upset the Celtics (something said tragically too often). The passing was better in later years, but his scoring was probably at its apex here.

Last spot up for grabs; think Kobe gets it by default, but could be pushed elsewhere. Also more than a little tempted to just start pushing playoff letdowns so 2016 Curry can truly be with his peers. :roll:

EDIT: 3. 1969 West
West is receiving varied support, so I am fine branching out with my third vote. As I said, distinguishing 1966-70 is tough. In a meta sense, I am going with 1969 because it has more support. In a basketball sense, it was probably the better postseason. This was the Wilt adjustment year, so to whatever extent his numbers dipped in the regular season seems more indicative of that than some actual temporary decline. Narratively, going out the way he did that seventh game in 1969 seems a little more compelling than his 1970 exit (even if the 1970 Finals had maybe the two most extraordinary games of his career). But I am not committed to this take, so we will see how it develops.

Mavericksfan · Post #6 » by **Mavericksfan** » Sat Aug 17, 2019 8:09 pm

E-Balla wrote:

No-more-rings wrote:

I’m curious to why you have 09 Wade over 75 McAdoo.

McAdoo led just as poor of a supporting cast to more wins, higher SRS, better rel offense and had a better playoff series against a much better defense. All while playing an imo significant amount of higher minutes.

No-more-rings · Post #7 » by **No-more-rings** » Sat Aug 17, 2019 9:12 pm

Mavericksfan wrote:
E-Balla wrote:

No-more-rings wrote:

I’m curious to why you have 09 Wade over 75 McAdoo.

McAdoo led just as poor of a supporting cast to more wins, higher SRS, better rel offense and had a better playoff series against a much better defense. All while playing an imo significant amount of higher minutes.

He’s not a player I know a ton about, but I don’t think you can compare win totals and such in such different leagues, and I don’t know a lot about his supporting cast, but i really doubt it was as bad as Wade’s. And i’m not going to compare stats from years apart either, but the gap between Wade’s stats and that of his teammates is pretty telling, his PER was 30.4 and the next highest was Beasley at 17.2 but he also had a -4.3 BPM so he was like clearly not a positive player anyhow with his playstyle and bad defense. Wade had a 10.7 BPM and the next highest was Marion at 1.1, who was eventually replaced by J Oneal who had a negative BPM. I wouldn’t put a ton of stock into their 7 game playoff samples either, Wade at that point was already a proven big time playoff performer and champion, and MCadoo never had any serious playoff success until he was a role player with the Lakers anyhow. Playoff wise, Wade takes a backseat to very few in history.

liamliam1234 · Post #8 » by **liamliam1234** » Sat Aug 17, 2019 10:16 pm

Regarding McAdoo, no, I would not say you should look at offensive rating and just call it a day, otherwise Paul and Nash should be the next guards in line. McAdoo was a worse passer, a worse defender, and a worse per possession scorer. Credit to the great performance against a historically strong playoff defence (although Wade has something similar in 2010), but that does not make his regular season better.

I need to do what I can to curb that desire to just load up on 1970s players; if McAdoo deserves a serious look this early, there are a lot of guys from that era I would vote in before him. Artis Gilmore being first in line, and Barry and McGinnis and maybe even McAdoo’s Bullets opposition waiting in the wings. To say nothing of Havlicek or Willis Reed or Walt Frazier...

ardee · Post #9 » by **ardee** » Sat Aug 17, 2019 11:19 pm

E-Balla wrote:
E-Balla wrote:1. 83 Moses Malone - The short version is that Moses was the best player in the league, on an historically great team, with great +/- estimates, and a gamebreaking ability on the offensive boards (averaged 6.5 offensive rebounds a game from 79 to 83). The gap between him and Curry who has that same argument (replace rebounding with 3 point shooting) is that outside of that one amazing ability Moses was still well above average at everything else. His jumper, defense (in 83 at least), and post game was already solid. His one weakness was his weak passing ability but it didn't hinder his chance to lead great or mediocre teams so I don't know how much it concerns me.

2. 17 Russell Westbrook - I'm on record since 2017 saying next to 09 LeBron this is the best season I've seen since I've watched basketball religiously. The short version here is that he averaged a 30 point triple double, made 200 three pointers, was the most clutch player ever (sidebar but this is one of my favorite posts in RealGM history, and it perfectly encapsulates exactly how clutch he was), and averaged 37/12/11 in the playoffs while destroying Houston, only losing because his team was the worst team I've ever seen in the playoffs without him on the floor. Unlike many here he had to also overcome horrible fitting teammates (they had the worst 3 point percentage in the league outside of him) and the worst coach in the league. Now those are things we can all agree on, the main argument against Westbrook is that he couldn't perform on a better team/contender. To that I say look at the year prior.

In 2016 Westbrook played next to KD and had a great squad around him. He was arguably the best player on the team averaging 24/8/10 for a team that was +7 in the regular season, but beat a +10 team in the second round, and went to 7 with a +11 team in the WCF. Overall in the playoffs the 2016 Thunder are the best team outside of the 09 Nuggets to miss the Finals, the 15th best team ever, and they played at a +13.4 level. Westbrook was the clear best player in their postseason run averaging 26/7/11 on 52 TS% to KD's 28/7/3 on 54 TS% and having clearly better +/- numbers than KD. Right there I'm coming to the conclusion that 2016 Westbrook is worthy of being on this list, but not this high.

The biggest gap in the game of Westbrook from 2016 to 2017 was his shooting. I think outside of that he didn't do anything he couldn't do otherwise. Westbrook's 200 3s made in 2017 was almost twice as much as his career high prior (101 in 2016), and his percentage (34%) was better than in ever (in 2016 he was 29.6%). Adding to that his improvement in 3 point shooting didn't seem like random chance. His FT% was also at a career high, and looking at his month to month shooting splits he was between 31.5% and 37.7% in each full month (so excluding April and October). That's compared to his 29.6% 3 point percentage in 2016. If Westbrook was as good a shooter in 2016 as in 2017 I think the 2016 Thunder are NBA Champions and one of the best ever so the argument that he wasn't capable of leading a team to a ring in 2017 is bogus to me.

3. 09 Dwyane Wade - I'll post more on this later as needed but the short version of his argument here is that he carried a team of nothing to great heights, put up amazing individual production, and we already know from other seasons he's good enough to lead a champion, be a sidekick, and absolutely dominate the very best defenses in league history. He's a floor raiser the level of the top 5ish guys here, just not a ceiling raiser on their level.

Any questions and I'm 100% down to answer.

What do you say to the fact that adding Moses to the Sixers only resulted in a +3 SRS jump?

Morb · Post #10 » by **Morb** » Sat Aug 17, 2019 11:46 pm

1. T-Mac 2003 - GOAT Offensive Game, best OBPM in 25 years (from 1990 to 2015), lifted Orlando ORtg from 91.8 to 109.3 (+8% eFG), great body, versality, handles, underrated passer, low tovs, good series vs DRtg 99.9 (-3.7).
2. Wade 2009 - great motor, rim attack, assists, good series vs DRtg 107.6 (-0.7).
3. McAdoo 1975 - Scoring Machine, shooting 6'10, rebounds, historically great series vs DRtg 91.3 (-6.4). Wow.
http://bkref.com/tiny/Es4q0

Sark · Post #11 » by **Sark** » Sat Aug 17, 2019 11:51 pm

Charles Barkley should be around this area, if not higher.

Post #12 » by **GeorgeMarcus** » Sat Aug 17, 2019 11:53 pm

For the love of 95 D Rob, somebody make this right

Vladimir777 · Post #13 » by **Vladimir777** » Sun Aug 18, 2019 2:20 am

I really need to start reading up more on basketball so I can vote on these projects next time you guys do them!

cecilthesheep · Post #14 » by **cecilthesheep** » Sun Aug 18, 2019 4:51 am

1. 1966 Jerry West - I believe West is in the top tier of offensive players remaining, and he has the advantage of being an excellent defender as well, knowing how to use his length perfectly. His prime was just before the era of advanced stats, so I can't make a detailed case for him with those, but watch him on film - he pops on both ends. One of the first ever real perimeter scoring forces, stupidly efficient for his time, and completely unstoppable with his high release and advanced handle under the old dribbling rules.

He also consistently elevated his game in the playoffs, increasing his volume without losing efficiency. 1966 is the intersection of his prime athleticism and his developing passing game. There's no one remaining who I'd rather have.

2. 1970 Jerry West - This is West's last really dominant scoring year, and he's fully developed his passing game by now. He's not quite the athlete he used to be as age and a few injuries have slowed him down, and this means he's not as much of a defensive impact player as he once was, but his offensive game might have peaked this year.

3. 1994 David Robinson - Robinson is a fascinating case. As a player I consider him very similar to Kevin Garnett - big man who can play like a guard, not an overwhelming individual scorer, possibly underrated defender even though his greatness on that end is acknowledged. Garnett gets his edge over Robinson because he's a much better passer and doesn't decline as much in the playoffs. But I don't think the gap is as huge as the conversation here might imply, with Garnett's name in the running since near the beginning and Robinson even now not a huge contender. He's a truly all-time defensive force imo, and that's mostly what I'm voting for him based on - it was very, very close with Wade, but I just think Robinson's able to make more of a defensive difference as a switchable center.

As far as the year, it's clearly either '94 or '95 imo, and I just think every indication gives '94 the edge except for awards and playoff performance. D-Rob was always miscast as a first offensive option; he didn't have great skills to create for himself compared to most 25+ per game scorers, and it showed in the playoffs. So his stats are a little underwhelming in both postseasons. Given that, I'll take the '94 RS.

Guys I'm thinking about for the next few spots: Wade, Kobe, Karl Malone, Barkley, Erving, Dirk, Nash. Certainly not thinking about Bob McAdoo yet, although he was undeniably great.

No-more-rings · Post #15 » by **No-more-rings** » Sun Aug 18, 2019 2:33 pm

For those voting West here, i’m curious why you’re so confident in him being better than more modern guards like Wade and Kobe. Like i get he’s in their class, but comparing peaks 40 years apart seems difficult, and i think you kind of have to not weigh much how he’d do today. I think he’d still be a superstar most likely, but he wasn’t a real athletic guy, and I don’t know if his defense would be as impactful against faster, stronger, more athletic guards/wings. He’s a limeted tape guy, so he’s not an easy one but i’m not confident at all in saying he’s better than Wade and Kobe, and if his peak is better than Harden’s you have to put faith in the word of mouth that his defense was really that good.

DatAsh · Post #16 » by **DatAsh** » Sun Aug 18, 2019 2:56 pm

No-more-rings wrote:For those voting West here, i’m curious why you’re so confident in him being better than more modern guards like Wade and Kobe. Like i get he’s in their class, but comparing peaks 40 years apart seems difficult, and i think you kind of have to not weigh much how he’d do today. I think he’d still be a superstar most likely, but he wasn’t a real athletic guy, and I don’t know if his defense would be as impactful against faster, stronger, more athletic guards/wings. He’s a limeted tape guy, so he’s not an easy one but i’m not confident at all in saying he’s better than Wade and Kobe, and if his peak is better than Harden’s you have to put faith in the word of mouth that his defense was really that good.

I don't weigh how he'd do today at all. That said, I still have peak Wade over peak West.

cecilthesheep · Post #17 » by **cecilthesheep** » Sun Aug 18, 2019 2:57 pm

No-more-rings wrote:For those voting West here, i’m curious why you’re so confident in him being better than more modern guards like Wade and Kobe. Like i get he’s in their class, but comparing peaks 40 years apart seems difficult, and i think you kind of have to not weigh much how he’d do today. I think he’d still be a superstar most likely, but he wasn’t a real athletic guy, and I don’t know if his defense would be as impactful against faster, stronger, more athletic guards/wings. He’s a limeted tape guy, so he’s not an easy one but i’m not confident at all in saying he’s better than Wade and Kobe, and if his peak is better than Harden’s you have to put faith in the word of mouth that his defense was really that good.

I guess I don't really factor that kind of thing in hardly at all. Without knowing what Jerry West would have looked like with more modern training techniques, coaching, resources, spacing, etc., I don't think it's very useful to imagine what the 60s version of him would do transplanted to today. How Kobe/Wade would have done growing up in the 40s is a similarly unanswerable question. The only even playing field imo is to compare how well everyone actually did against the competition they faced.

Now that I've thought through all this, I am going to be the guy that brings up Mikan before very long here.

70sFan · Post #18 » by **70sFan** » Sun Aug 18, 2019 3:04 pm

No-more-rings wrote:For those voting West here, i’m curious why you’re so confident in him being better than more modern guards like Wade and Kobe. Like i get he’s in their class, but comparing peaks 40 years apart seems difficult, and i think you kind of have to not weigh much how he’d do today. I think he’d still be a superstar most likely, but he wasn’t a real athletic guy, and I don’t know if his defense would be as impactful against faster, stronger, more athletic guards/wings. He’s a limeted tape guy, so he’s not an easy one but i’m not confident at all in saying he’s better than Wade and Kobe, and if his peak is better than Harden’s you have to put faith in the word of mouth that his defense was really that good.

West was athletic, this is the biggest myth I've seen recently on this board. He was very fast, had quick hands and feet, good leaping abilities and coordination. What makes him not "a real athletic guy"? As athletic as Wade? Of course no, but clearly above average.

Do you think that Harden is clearly better offensive player than West? Jerry's playoffs career shows that he couldn't be contained even by the greatest defensive teams ever, Harden isn't in that tier in my opinion (though he's not as bad as some believe). He's definitely on the same tier offensively and his defense is much better, so what is the case for Harden over him (other than era differences)?

No-more-rings · Post #19 » by **No-more-rings** » Sun Aug 18, 2019 3:33 pm

70sFan wrote:
No-more-rings wrote:For those voting West here, i’m curious why you’re so confident in him being better than more modern guards like Wade and Kobe. Like i get he’s in their class, but comparing peaks 40 years apart seems difficult, and i think you kind of have to not weigh much how he’d do today. I think he’d still be a superstar most likely, but he wasn’t a real athletic guy, and I don’t know if his defense would be as impactful against faster, stronger, more athletic guards/wings. He’s a limeted tape guy, so he’s not an easy one but i’m not confident at all in saying he’s better than Wade and Kobe, and if his peak is better than Harden’s you have to put faith in the word of mouth that his defense was really that good.

West was athletic, this is the biggest myth I've seen recently on this board. He was very fast, had quick hands and feet, good leaping abilities and coordination. What makes him not "a real athletic guy"? As athletic as Wade? Of course no, but clearly above average.

Do you think that Harden is clearly better offensive player than West? Jerry's playoffs career shows that he couldn't be contained even by the greatest defensive teams ever, Harden isn't in that tier in my opinion (though he's not as bad as some believe). He's definitely on the same tier offensively and his defense is much better, so what is the case for Harden over him (other than era differences)?

I didn’t mean to imply he wasn’t athletic just not in the class of Wade/Kobe.

As to the 2nd part, I don’t really know who’s better offensively it’s too tough to compare that’s kind of my point though. I’d probably have to give it to Harden given what he’s done the past few years but i’m fine with going West because of defense.

I also understand for people to go by how they did vs their competition but that’s also kind of unfair imo, and i think it needs to be considered at least somewhat how they’d do otherwise. It was much easier for West to stand out amongst offensive players than it is today, it was him, Oscar and Wilt as far as all time offensive players. Today Harden regularly has had to compete with Curry, Lebron, Westbrook, Cp3, KD, Kawhi, AD, Lillard, etc.

How easy is it to stand out from the crowd against those guys?

Colbinii · Post #20 » by **Colbinii** » Sun Aug 18, 2019 4:12 pm

No-more-rings wrote:It was much easier for West to stand out amongst offensive players than it is today, it was him, Oscar and Wilt as far as all time offensive players. Today Harden regularly has had to compete with Curry, Lebron, Westbrook, Cp3, KD, Kawhi, AD, Lillard, etc.

How easy is it to stand out from the crowd against those guys?

1. The league was much more difficult for offensive players, particularly offensive perimeter players to excel. To show just how much West/Oscar were for outliers, Oscar and West were routinely the only guards in the top 10 in PER.

2. Defenses were much better due to rules and no 3-point line. This made life difficult for perimeter players and favored the giants over the smaller players; though West and Oscar both had impact in the same capacity as the Giants.

3. You dont even mention Bob Pettit, Elgin Baylor, Walt Bellamy, John Havlicek, Rick Barry, Earl Monroe, Jerry Lucas, Walt Frazier and Willis Reed.

You have a clear biases against early era's which is fine. It takes time and effort to research the era, more time than most of us have. It is not an excuse to downplay the era since you don't understand the era to any capacity worth discussing on this forum. It would be like me going onto a baseball forum and discussing the current game; Im not qualified thus I don't do it.

tl;dr don't downplay something you know nothing about