Rotation Battles in Training Camp

[GregB]

I would like to see Theis as our traditional 4/Small Ball 5 depending on matchups. Expecting a decent year from him.

[cloverleaf]

Good play from Theis will presumably make it tougher for Grant Williams to get much time.

[SmartWentCrazy]

Watching the USA team with Jaylen and Jayson thriving alongside Kemba has led me think that maybe there is a better line-up/rotation to maximize our success in 19-20 and in the years thereafter. I am also intrigued by what Theis and Poirier can add to the mix.

Rather than force-feed Tatum into the 4 role so we can have GH and Jaylen both also start, maybe we should just accept that Jayson is a 3 fundamentally, who can occasionally defend the 4, depending on matchups.

Since Jayson is our most talented player, it seems wise to put him in the best position to prosper, and that is at the 3.

By taking Hayward out fo the starting line-up it also means we can get somewhat better balnce in the roation.

So here goes:

5—Kanter…..Poirier
4—Theis ……R. Williams/G.Williams
3—Tatum……Hayward
2—Brown……Smart
1—Walker…..(Edwards)


Putting Theis in the starting line-up makes this defensively tougher, and lets Kanter be Kanter.

Play Tatum, Brown, Walker and Hayward each 30-32 mpg. Play Smart 28-30 mpg. Play Theis and Kanter each around 24 mpg and Poirier 16-18 mpg.

I’d have the two Williamses duke it out for the remaining 16-18 mpg slot in the frontcourt. I would hope Timelord could win it because he can be such a gamechanger defensively if he gets it together. But GWill is OK, too. I don’t think there are enough minutes to get each of them in the flow.

I’d play Edwards spot minutes but not a whole lot. I see Marcus as the main back-up at point.

Pop hasn't started Kemba, Jaylen and Jayson together once, has he?

He played the three together for two separate stretches in the scrimmage vs Spain. Believe he played them together for a stretch in the intrasquad scrimmage that was televised as well.

[SmartWentCrazy]

My hot take would be that Smart and Hayward are in competition for a starting spot to begin next year. Would guess the team forces Hayward to prove he’s worthy of starting after everything from last season and the chemistry issues that arose from him being handed a spot.

[cloverleaf]

My hot take would be that Smart and Hayward are in competition for a starting spot to begin next year. Would guess the team forces Hayward to prove he’s worthy of starting after everything from last season and the chemistry issues that arose from him being handed a spot.

Hayward shouldn't have anything to prove re: reported chemistry issues from him starting to start the season last year. Stevens made a reasonable call in trying to start Hayward last year. It didn't work out and he moved Hayward to the bench. JB's crappy play last year had nothing to do with Hayward, it more likely came from JB not continuing to work on his 3pt and FT shots sufficiently in the offseason last year.

The remaining young guys from last season need to prove they have grown in both their game and their team mentality.

[SmartWentCrazy]

My hot take would be that Smart and Hayward are in competition for a starting spot to begin next year. Would guess the team forces Hayward to prove he’s worthy of starting after everything from last season and the chemistry issues that arose from him being handed a spot.

Hayward shouldn't have anything to prove re: reported chemistry issues from him starting to start the season last year. Stevens made a reasonable call in trying to start Hayward last year. It didn't work out and he moved Hayward to the bench. JB's crappy play last year had nothing to do with Hayward, it more likely came from JB not continuing to work on his 3pt and FT shots sufficiently in the offseason last year.

The remaining young guys from last season need to prove they have grown in both their game and their team mentality.

No he didnt— he rushed him back when he clearly wasnt ready. Other good coaches dont do that. Juxtapose Stevens actions against what Kerr did when David Lee [a recent all star and max player at the time] got hurt.

Hayward should stay on the bench until he proves he’s a starter. Not be handed the keys to the car after crashing repeatedly last year.

[cloverleaf]

My hot take would be that Smart and Hayward are in competition for a starting spot to begin next year. Would guess the team forces Hayward to prove he’s worthy of starting after everything from last season and the chemistry issues that arose from him being handed a spot.

Hayward shouldn't have anything to prove re: reported chemistry issues from him starting to start the season last year. Stevens made a reasonable call in trying to start Hayward last year. It didn't work out and he moved Hayward to the bench. JB's crappy play last year had nothing to do with Hayward, it more likely came from JB not continuing to work on his 3pt and FT shots sufficiently in the offseason last year.

The remaining young guys from last season need to prove they have grown in both their game and their team mentality.

No he didnt— he rushed him back when he clearly wasnt ready. Other good coaches dont do that. Juxtapose Stevens actions against what Kerr did when David Lee [a recent all star and max player at the time] got hurt.

Hayward should stay on the bench until he proves he’s a starter. Not be handed the keys to the car after crashing repeatedly last year.

Stevens was perhaps overly optimistic about how quickly Hayward would return to form based on what he'd seen in the preseason. Returning a starter to the starting lineup after an injury layoff is pretty darned common--even if that player is not yet fully back to prime form.

But either way, mistake on Stevens's part or not, it neither was just cause for the young players to go toxic nor is something that Hayward has some future extra burden of proof to shake off this year or next.

[StojkoVrankovic]

My hot take would be that Smart and Hayward are in competition for a starting spot to begin next year. Would guess the team forces Hayward to prove he’s worthy of starting after everything from last season and the chemistry issues that arose from him being handed a spot.

Hayward shouldn't have anything to prove re: reported chemistry issues from him starting to start the season last year. Stevens made a reasonable call in trying to start Hayward last year. It didn't work out and he moved Hayward to the bench. JB's crappy play last year had nothing to do with Hayward, it more likely came from JB not continuing to work on his 3pt and FT shots sufficiently in the offseason last year.

The remaining young guys from last season need to prove they have grown in both their game and their team mentality.

No he didnt— he rushed him back when he clearly wasnt ready. Other good coaches dont do that. Juxtapose Stevens actions against what Kerr did when David Lee [a recent all star and max player at the time] got hurt.

Hayward should stay on the bench until he proves he’s a starter. Not be handed the keys to the car after crashing repeatedly last year.

When do Smart, Brown, and Tatum have to prove they are also starters?

[SmartWentCrazy]

Hayward shouldn't have anything to prove re: reported chemistry issues from him starting to start the season last year. Stevens made a reasonable call in trying to start Hayward last year. It didn't work out and he moved Hayward to the bench. JB's crappy play last year had nothing to do with Hayward, it more likely came from JB not continuing to work on his 3pt and FT shots sufficiently in the offseason last year.

The remaining young guys from last season need to prove they have grown in both their game and their team mentality.

No he didnt— he rushed him back when he clearly wasnt ready. Other good coaches dont do that. Juxtapose Stevens actions against what Kerr did when David Lee [a recent all star and max player at the time] got hurt.

Hayward should stay on the bench until he proves he’s a starter. Not be handed the keys to the car after crashing repeatedly last year.

When do Smart, Brown, and Tatum have to prove they are also starters?

They did the last two seasons. We’ve seen what a ball dominant PG working with Hayward/Tatum/Brown leads too— would prefer to not repeat mistakes.

With respect to last year, Smart wasnt a starter to begin last year and no one was benching Brown or Tatum after their ECF run.

[Parliament10]

Jay King has a new piece on The Athletic trying to project the Cs rotation for next season. https://theathletic.com/1092944/2019/07/25/king-taking-a-guess-at-how-celtics-new-rotation-will-play-out/?source=dailyemail

Jay did as well as one could expect, but I think it is a thankless, and fruitless, exercise. The best we can do is forecast what the key battles will be for slots in the rotation. There are simply too many unknowns this year to do anything more. That is the point of this post/thread.

As I see it six players are sure bets to get major starter/rotation minutes barring injury. They are Walker, Brown, Hayward, Tatum, Kantor and Smart. Probably all five starters and the first guy off the bench are among those six. Between them they will probably play around 180 of the 240 game minutes. That leaves around 60 minutes for the rest of the rotation.

In my view a rotation guy plays a minimum of 10-12 minutes per game, and probably more like 14-20. They play in both halves and have a regular role. There may be guys who play every now and then as situation guys—last year’s Semi Ojeleye, anyone?—but that is not a rotation guy. I think the Cs will probably have three such rotation slots available after the first six guys, making for a nine-man rotation. Four guys after the first six at most. If Brad tries to squeeze five guys into 60 minutes there will not be enough time to develop consistency and continuity.

As I see it there are three main battles for rotation slots.

Battle Number One: Back-up 5. The Cs will need to have a rotation big to be able to defend the 5. The battle here, as I see it, is between Vincent Poirier and Robert Williams. Daniel Theis could get spot minutes here if the other team goes small, but I think the Cs need to develop a legitimate 5 in their rotation, someone who plays at least 15 minutes per game. I think this is completely wide open and either Williams or Poirier can win it.

Battle Number Two: Back-up 4. The Cs will likely start Tatum at the 4, and at any rate he will play at least half of his minutes there, if not more. They need a legitimate 4 to play many of the other minutes, one who can defend an NBA 4 and nail a three pointer. The battle here is between Daniel Theis and Grant Williams. (I do not include Semi Ojeleye as a back-up 4 because he is purely a spot guy here—useful to take on big 3s playing as small ball 4s, but not good against strong guys 6-8 or taller. Semi is better laterally than he is vertically, and as far as rebounding goes he makes Brian Scalabrine look like Bill Russell.) In this case I think the edge goes to Theis because of his experience. The Theis of 17-18 was a damned good player, and no reason to think Theis won’t return to form now that he has had time to recover from his knee injury. It is not out of the question that Williams gains ground during the course of the season, and is in the rotation come the spring. He is really hard to project. I will say that were Williams two inches taller I’d like his chances right out of the gate a lot more.

Battle Number Three: Back-up Guard: The Cs are stacked at the wing position and all those minutes will be covered by Tatum-Brown-Hayward-Smart. But there will be minutes available at back-up guard, and because of Smart’s flexibility—he can play the 1, 2, or 3—Brad can opt for any type of guard. The candidates are Edwards, Langford and Wanamaker. They each have a shot. Edwards looks to be on the inside track because he has the instant offense thing going, which can be helpful. But Langford may surprise—we are all keen to see him in action—and Wanamaker was steady in limited minutes last year. If Semi Ojeleye makes a quantum leap in training camp he could bully his way into the rotation, with Marcus playing most of the back-up guard minutes. But I think that is a long-shot. I think Semi is more likely to be in line for irregular spot duty depending upon match-ups.

So that is how I project the training camp battles to be. I have no idea how they will turn out, and I suspect they are wide open right now. It is worth noting that having this many training camp battles on a team expected to make the playoffs and win a round or two in the playoffs is unusual. Last year, by comparison, we pretty much knew who was going to play before training camp. The only question was how the minutes would get divvied up.

I Agree, that these are some Obvious Battles.
One big one that you missed though, is Hayward.

Kemba - Brown - Hayward - Tatum - Kanter
_______________________________________________________________________________

Hayward should really be ready, and back to form. But if he's Not, then he goes back to the 2nd Unit.
In that (hopefully) unlikely event, then Smart would have to come back to the 1st Unit, as the 2nd Ballhandler.

Kemba - Smart - Brown - Tatum - Kanter
_______________________________________________________________________________

Another Scenario that Intrigues me, is to go with just one ball handler.
Hopefully forcing Kemba to be more of a passer.

Kemba - Brown - Tatum - Theis? - Kanter
_______________________________________________________________________________

These Scenarios are really All on Hayward. If he starts the Season up-to-par, then we're in good shape.
If he doesn't, then it's seriously time to consider trading him, by the Trade Deadline.

[cloverleaf]

I think Wanamaker's big opportunity will be to soak up minutes when Smart (inevitably), Kemba, or even possibly Edwards is out. He could well average 10-12 minutes a game between those opportunities and spot minutes elsewhere, particularly against bigger bench backcourts.

[cloverleaf]

Watching the USA team with Jaylen and Jayson thriving alongside Kemba has led me think that maybe there is a better line-up/rotation to maximize our success in 19-20 and in the years thereafter. I am also intrigued by what Theis and Poirier can add to the mix.

Rather than force-feed Tatum into the 4 role so we can have GH and Jaylen both also start, maybe we should just accept that Jayson is a 3 fundamentally, who can occasionally defend the 4, depending on matchups.

Since Jayson is our most talented player, it seems wise to put him in the best position to prosper, and that is at the 3.

By taking Hayward out fo the starting line-up it also means we can get somewhat better balnce in the roation.

So here goes:

5—Kanter…..Poirier
4—Theis ……R. Williams/G.Williams
3—Tatum……Hayward
2—Brown……Smart
1—Walker…..(Edwards)


Putting Theis in the starting line-up makes this defensively tougher, and lets Kanter be Kanter.

Play Tatum, Brown, Walker and Hayward each 30-32 mpg. Play Smart 28-30 mpg. Play Theis and Kanter each around 24 mpg and Poirier 16-18 mpg.

I’d have the two Williamses duke it out for the remaining 16-18 mpg slot in the frontcourt. I would hope Timelord could win it because he can be such a gamechanger defensively if he gets it together. But GWill is OK, too. I don’t think there are enough minutes to get each of them in the flow.

I’d play Edwards spot minutes but not a whole lot. I see Marcus as the main back-up at point.

Pop hasn't started Kemba, Jaylen and Jayson together once, has he?

He played the three together for two separate stretches in the scrimmage vs Spain. Believe he played them together for a stretch in the intrasquad scrimmage that was televised as well.

As I said....

I would find it quite surprising for Brad to bring two of his 4-5 best players off the bench and since he presumably would want them both to get 30 minutes a game I don't really see the point to the extreme juggling.

I also wouldn't be surprised to see essentially all Edwards's minutes (and I think he could end up with the most minutes of the rookies) in with Smart, with Smart in the PG role offensively.

[Parliament10]

Jay King has a new piece on The Athletic trying to project the Cs rotation for next season. https://theathletic.com/1092944/2019/07/25/king-taking-a-guess-at-how-celtics-new-rotation-will-play-out/?source=dailyemail

Jay did as well as one could expect, but I think it is a thankless, and fruitless, exercise. The best we can do is forecast what the key battles will be for slots in the rotation. There are simply too many unknowns this year to do anything more. That is the point of this post/thread.

As I see it six players are sure bets to get major starter/rotation minutes barring injury. They are Walker, Brown, Hayward, Tatum, Kantor and Smart. Probably all five starters and the first guy off the bench are among those six. Between them they will probably play around 180 of the 240 game minutes. That leaves around 60 minutes for the rest of the rotation.

In my view a rotation guy plays a minimum of 10-12 minutes per game, and probably more like 14-20. They play in both halves and have a regular role. There may be guys who play every now and then as situation guys—last year’s Semi Ojeleye, anyone?—but that is not a rotation guy. I think the Cs will probably have three such rotation slots available after the first six guys, making for a nine-man rotation. Four guys after the first six at most. If Brad tries to squeeze five guys into 60 minutes there will not be enough time to develop consistency and continuity.

As I see it there are three main battles for rotation slots.

Battle Number One: Back-up 5. The Cs will need to have a rotation big to be able to defend the 5. The battle here, as I see it, is between Vincent Poirier and Robert Williams. Daniel Theis could get spot minutes here if the other team goes small, but I think the Cs need to develop a legitimate 5 in their rotation, someone who plays at least 15 minutes per game. I think this is completely wide open and either Williams or Poirier can win it.

Battle Number Two: Back-up 4. The Cs will likely start Tatum at the 4, and at any rate he will play at least half of his minutes there, if not more. They need a legitimate 4 to play many of the other minutes, one who can defend an NBA 4 and nail a three pointer. The battle here is between Daniel Theis and Grant Williams. (I do not include Semi Ojeleye as a back-up 4 because he is purely a spot guy here—useful to take on big 3s playing as small ball 4s, but not good against strong guys 6-8 or taller. Semi is better laterally than he is vertically, and as far as rebounding goes he makes Brian Scalabrine look like Bill Russell.) In this case I think the edge goes to Theis because of his experience. The Theis of 17-18 was a damned good player, and no reason to think Theis won’t return to form now that he has had time to recover from his knee injury. It is not out of the question that Williams gains ground during the course of the season, and is in the rotation come the spring. He is really hard to project. I will say that were Williams two inches taller I’d like his chances right out of the gate a lot more.

Battle Number Three: Back-up Guard: The Cs are stacked at the wing position and all those minutes will be covered by Tatum-Brown-Hayward-Smart. But there will be minutes available at back-up guard, and because of Smart’s flexibility—he can play the 1, 2, or 3—Brad can opt for any type of guard. The candidates are Edwards, Langford and Wanamaker. They each have a shot. Edwards looks to be on the inside track because he has the instant offense thing going, which can be helpful. But Langford may surprise—we are all keen to see him in action—and Wanamaker was steady in limited minutes last year. If Semi Ojeleye makes a quantum leap in training camp he could bully his way into the rotation, with Marcus playing most of the back-up guard minutes. But I think that is a long-shot. I think Semi is more likely to be in line for irregular spot duty depending upon match-ups.

So that is how I project the training camp battles to be. I have no idea how they will turn out, and I suspect they are wide open right now. It is worth noting that having this many training camp battles on a team expected to make the playoffs and win a round or two in the playoffs is unusual. Last year, by comparison, we pretty much knew who was going to play before training camp. The only question was how the minutes would get divvied up.

I think that these Battles are still in play, going into our first preseason game.

[Gant]

I've got a good feeling about neo-vinnie Carsen Edwards. Guys that can score so easily are really hard to keep on the bench.

[Slartibartfast]

My prediction on the early rotation

Kemba 33/Carsen 10/Smart 5
Jaylen 30/Smart 18
Hayward 30/Tatum 12/Smart 6
Tatum 20/Williams 12/Semi 6
Kanter 24/Theis 16/Semi 8

I think Brad will try to run more paint attack action with our new bigs but default to floor-spacing and switchability. I don't think he'll be comfortable with 48 minutes of roll actions. Pick and pop opens up a lot more driving lanes for our overabundance of wings.

[Parliament10]

My prediction on the early rotation

Kemba 33/Carsen 10/Smart 5
Jaylen 30/Smart 18
Hayward 30/Tatum 12/Smart 6
Tatum 20/Williams 12/Semi 6
Kanter 24/Theis 16/Semi 8

I think Brad will try to run more paint attack action with our new bigs but default to floor-spacing and switchability. I don't think he'll be comfortable with 48 minutes of roll actions. Pick and pop opens up a lot more driving lanes for our overabundance of wings.

What about TimeLord?
Also, I think that Stevens will keep everyone under 30 mins.

[Slartibartfast]

My prediction on the early rotation

Kemba 33/Carsen 10/Smart 5
Jaylen 30/Smart 18
Hayward 30/Tatum 12/Smart 6
Tatum 20/Williams 12/Semi 6
Kanter 24/Theis 16/Semi 8

I think Brad will try to run more paint attack action with our new bigs but default to floor-spacing and switchability. I don't think he'll be comfortable with 48 minutes of roll actions. Pick and pop opens up a lot more driving lanes for our overabundance of wings.

What about TimeLord?
Also, I think that Stevens will keep everyone under 30 mins.

Rob could win the starting job but I don't think he's a physical enough presence to match with a Hayward/Tatum frontcourt. Poirier looks too light to me as well. I think a beefier guy who sets big screens and can keep the big 5s off the boards will win the starting spot eventually. I think Kanter is the only guy who fits the bill, even though his scoring game is better suited off the bench.

[100proof]

My prediction on the early rotation

Kemba 33/Carsen 10/Smart 5
Jaylen 30/Smart 18
Hayward 30/Tatum 12/Smart 6
Tatum 20/Williams 12/Semi 6
Kanter 24/Theis 16/Semi 8

I think Brad will try to run more paint attack action with our new bigs but default to floor-spacing and switchability. I don't think he'll be comfortable with 48 minutes of roll actions. Pick and pop opens up a lot more driving lanes for our overabundance of wings.

No time lord and no porier?

Better chance in them logging 20ish mins combined than Tatum playing of for 20 mins.