Official Speculation Thread ‘19-'20 II: BIG as F

[Magic#1]

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G: Amstrong $1
G: McGrady $5
F: Turkoglu $3
F: Lewis $1
C: Shaq $5

Shaq
Goggles
'Shard
Mac
DA

Depending on the year, I might go Skiles over DA.

[MagicStarwipe]

Give me Shaq and Penny. Doesn't even matter who else you put on the team with them. They'll still be the best team.

Orlando Grant Hill isn't worth 5 points but I guess they gave it to him out of respect and because he works at Turner. Same thing with Dennis Scott being worth 3 points.

[drsd]

Give me Shaq and Penny. Doesn't even matter who else you put on the team with them. They'll still be the best team.

Orlando Grant Hill isn't worth 5 points but I guess they gave it to him out of respect and because he works at Turner. Same thing with Dennis Scott being worth 3 points.

If the scoring is based on $5 for Orlando's 1-5, $3 for 6-10, and $1 for 11-15, I agree that the "costs" are not what most fans would pay.

For example, Vučević is such a steal at $1, I cannot draft O'Neal or Howard - and that is insane. And only a fool would pay $5 for Hill.

[Instincts]

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G: Amstrong $1
G: McGrady $5
F: Turkoglu $3
F: Lewis $1
C: Shaq $5

Skiles
McGrady
AG
Lewis
Shaq

[Blue_and_Whte]

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...and top 8 and top 12 in total for season in midrange and at rim gravity

Makes sense.
Penny
Tmac
Hedo
Shard
Vooch.

Sent from my VS501 using RealGM mobile app

[Knightro]

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[ezzzp]

https://www.nba.com/magic/gordons-strong-work-ethic-display-once-again-offseason

Paired in the starting lineup with fellow forward Jonathan Isaac, Gordon knows there will be plenty of mismatches that he can exploit in the season ahead. Gordon’s thinking goes something like this: When guarded by lighter small forwards, he wants to be able to use his chiseled body as a battering ram in the post to create point-blank looks; and when he’s being checked by slower power forwards, Gordon thinks he will have major advantages with his quickness and footwork to get to the rim for easy opportunities. "On the low block, I can use my jump hooks, up-and-unders and doing stuff that the coaching staff, my teammates and the whole city are comfortable with,’’ he said. "It’s just about getting the ball on the block and making a play for my team.’’

Gordon certainly has room for growth as a post-up player. Last season, he got the ball on the post 219 times – the 32ndmost post-up opportunities by any NBA player. The rub, however, was that he shot just 40.4 percent on his 114 shot attempts out of the post. Also, his efficiency was much lower than he and the Magic would have liked with him handing out just 13 assists, while turning the ball over 12 times and committing 11 fouls from the post.

To put those numbers into perspective, Magic center Nikola Vucevic had 714 post-up opportunities last season – the third most in the NBA behind only LaMarcus Aldridge (1,005) and Karl-Anthony Towns (990). Vucevic shot a solid 48.1 percent on his 320 shots from the post, while also contributing 68 assists (with 41 turnovers and 21 fouls).

[Instincts]

https://www.nba.com/magic/gordons-strong-work-ethic-display-once-again-offseason

Paired in the starting lineup with fellow forward Jonathan Isaac, Gordon knows there will be plenty of mismatches that he can exploit in the season ahead. Gordon’s thinking goes something like this: When guarded by lighter small forwards, he wants to be able to use his chiseled body as a battering ram in the post to create point-blank looks; and when he’s being checked by slower power forwards, Gordon thinks he will have major advantages with his quickness and footwork to get to the rim for easy opportunities. "On the low block, I can use my jump hooks, up-and-unders and doing stuff that the coaching staff, my teammates and the whole city are comfortable with,’’ he said. "It’s just about getting the ball on the block and making a play for my team.’’

Gordon certainly has room for growth as a post-up player. Last season, he got the ball on the post 219 times – the 32ndmost post-up opportunities by any NBA player. The rub, however, was that he shot just 40.4 percent on his 114 shot attempts out of the post. Also, his efficiency was much lower than he and the Magic would have liked with him handing out just 13 assists, while turning the ball over 12 times and committing 11 fouls from the post.

To put those numbers into perspective, Magic center Nikola Vucevic had 714 post-up opportunities last season – the third most in the NBA behind only LaMarcus Aldridge (1,005) and Karl-Anthony Towns (990). Vucevic shot a solid 48.1 percent on his 320 shots from the post, while also contributing 68 assists (with 41 turnovers and 21 fouls).

What a thoughtful and hard working man. We are lucky to have him on this team.

Yes to the thought of backing down smaller guys and going by bigger ones. It’s fundamental, smart, and we saw the flashes last year, the power drive dunk over Jeremy Lamb comes to mind. Better post play will prove to be another step in AGs improved efficiency and play making.

I maintain he has a longer runway than most prospects due to his intelligence, work ethic, and athleticism. Stay the course AG.

[ezzzp]

What a thoughtful and hard working man. We are lucky to have him on this team.

Yes to the thought of backing down smaller guys and going by bigger ones. It’s fundamental, smart, and we saw the flashes last year, the power drive dunk over Jeremy Lamb comes to mind. Better post play will prove to be another step in AGs improved efficiency and play making.

I maintain he has a longer runway than most prospects due to his intelligence, work ethic, and athleticism. Stay the course AG.

AG has made moderate but steady improvements every year, and he's still young; only 24 next season so he should continue to develop even more. We do have to temper that a bit as we can't ignore that last season was his 5th season and he now is approaching 10K NBA minutes. From all reports he has a really good work ethic and of course has elite athleticism, though I would call his bbIQ average at best right now - it will get better.

In regard to his low post intentions...on the one hand, AG has excellent gravity around the rim and he's working hard to try to improve there...on the other, he has been awful in the post despite working on that skill for at least 3 summers now + getting substantial volume in that type of play for the past 3 seasons:



In the past, his biggest problem there has been aversion to contact - often backing down defender or getting good positioning - but then defaulting to a turn around jumper or fadeaway. Hopefully those skills he's working on this summer allow him to attack the basket more frequently on those type of possessions. That should increase his finishing efficiency and in turn increase his free throw rate. That could turn it into a consistent and efficient weapon for the Magic's half court offense to rely on.

[Bensational]

What a thoughtful and hard working man. We are lucky to have him on this team.

Yes to the thought of backing down smaller guys and going by bigger ones. It’s fundamental, smart, and we saw the flashes last year, the power drive dunk over Jeremy Lamb comes to mind. Better post play will prove to be another step in AGs improved efficiency and play making.

I maintain he has a longer runway than most prospects due to his intelligence, work ethic, and athleticism. Stay the course AG.

AG has made moderate but steady improvements every year, and he's still young; only 24 next season so he should continue to develop even more. We do have to temper that a bit as we can't ignore that last season was his 5th season and he now is approaching 10K NBA minutes. From all reports he has a really good work ethic and of course has elite athleticism, though I would call his bbIQ average at best right now - it will get better.

In regard to his low post intentions...on the one hand, AG has excellent gravity around the rim and he's working hard to try to improve there...on the other, he has been awful in the post despite working on that skill for at least 3 summers now + getting substantial volume in that type of play for the past 3 seasons:



In the past, his biggest problem there has been aversion to contact - often backing down defender or getting good positioning - but then defaulting to a turn around jumper or fadeaway. Hopefully those skills he's working on this summer allow him to attack the basket more frequently on those type of possessions. That should increase his finishing efficiency and in turn increase his free throw rate. That could turn it into a consistent and efficient weapon for the Magic's half court offense to rely on.

I'd say he still has plenty of scope to improve. Vuc has had a similarly up and down efficiency over those 4 years, but with age, experience and the right coach his numbers from this season were able to match Gordon's from last season after being ranked around the 25th percentile the previous 2 seasons.

They both share the same problem of avoiding contact. We need one of them to dig in and initiate more of that. AG would be our best hope in that regard. And as long as he continues to look for others that get open, he should be able to keep it as an efficient play. But posting up has never been a strength of his, other than when he gets a mismatch on a switch, in which case he's usually done well (by memory, I don't have numbers for that).

It should be a good development for him and the team overall, though.

[ezzzp]

What a thoughtful and hard working man. We are lucky to have him on this team.

Yes to the thought of backing down smaller guys and going by bigger ones. It’s fundamental, smart, and we saw the flashes last year, the power drive dunk over Jeremy Lamb comes to mind. Better post play will prove to be another step in AGs improved efficiency and play making.

I maintain he has a longer runway than most prospects due to his intelligence, work ethic, and athleticism. Stay the course AG.

AG has made moderate but steady improvements every year, and he's still young; only 24 next season so he should continue to develop even more. We do have to temper that a bit as we can't ignore that last season was his 5th season and he now is approaching 10K NBA minutes. From all reports he has a really good work ethic and of course has elite athleticism, though I would call his bbIQ average at best right now - it will get better.

In regard to his low post intentions...on the one hand, AG has excellent gravity around the rim and he's working hard to try to improve there...on the other, he has been awful in the post despite working on that skill for at least 3 summers now + getting substantial volume in that type of play for the past 3 seasons:

Spoiler:

In the past, his biggest problem there has been aversion to contact - often backing down defender or getting good positioning - but then defaulting to a turn around jumper or fadeaway. Hopefully those skills he's working on this summer allow him to attack the basket more frequently on those type of possessions. That should increase his finishing efficiency and in turn increase his free throw rate. That could turn it into a consistent and efficient weapon for the Magic's half court offense to rely on.

I'd say he still has plenty of scope to improve. Vuc has had a similarly up and down efficiency over those 4 years, but with age, experience and the right coach his numbers from this season were able to match Gordon's from last season after being ranked around the 25th percentile the previous 2 seasons.

They both share the same problem of avoiding contact. We need one of them to dig in and initiate more of that. AG would be our best hope in that regard. And as long as he continues to look for others that get open, he should be able to keep it as an efficient play. But posting up has never been a strength of his, other than when he gets a mismatch on a switch, in which case he's usually done well (by memory, I don't have numbers for that).

It should be a good development for him and the team overall, though.

Vucevic is and has always been efficient in the post, if he drew more fouls in the paint he'd be an elite level scoring big. He has augmented that inability to generate FT's by adding a 3PT shot, but ideally he would have both as that would take him to an entirely different level.

Vucevic creates a lot of the same contact that refs always call for top draft pick guys like Embiid and KAT, he just rarely gets those calls. Reputation and being able to sell-the-foul factor into that, but some of that rep is definitely deserved as Vucevic has never been a bull in the paint type big - instead he gets his shot off with very skilled footwork, ambidexterity around the rim and a large arsenal of shots.

Vucevic only had one bad post-up efficiency season (17-18) since that play has been tracked by the NBA. That was the year were he was injured for two months smack in the middle of the season. My guess is that just like the considerable drop off to his shooting (3P%: .343 to .250 / TS%: .557 to .496), his post-up efficiency also fell off after the injury.

15-16 348 poss / 50.2 eFG%
16-17 276 poss / 44.6 eFG%
17-18 180 poss / 39.6 eFG%
18-19 434 poss / 49.4 eFG%

Vucevic is also an excellent facilitator from both the high and low post, Gordon hasn't consistently demonstrated that skill as of yet. His passing has really improved in PnR type actions, but AG rarely passed out of the post. Maybe once he gets more comfortable and his bbIQ improves enough to quickly read coverages he could improve there.

Either way, its a good skill for him to develop as it could have beneficial effects to the Magic's half court offense - especially if the roster improves their 3PT shooting.

[Magic4champ]

https://www.nba.com/magic/isaac-thats-what-its-all-about-wanting-more

Excited for training camp and season opener. Many things to look forward to this coming season. A major turnaround for this franchise.

[Optimus_Steel]

https://www.nba.com/magic/isaac-thats-what-its-all-about-wanting-more

Excited for training camp and season opener. Many things to look forward to this coming season. A major turnaround for this franchise.

Its nice going into a season with optimism instead of pessimism. First time I've been truly excited in several years.

[ezzzp]

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[Bensational]

AG has made moderate but steady improvements every year, and he's still young; only 24 next season so he should continue to develop even more. We do have to temper that a bit as we can't ignore that last season was his 5th season and he now is approaching 10K NBA minutes. From all reports he has a really good work ethic and of course has elite athleticism, though I would call his bbIQ average at best right now - it will get better.

In regard to his low post intentions...on the one hand, AG has excellent gravity around the rim and he's working hard to try to improve there...on the other, he has been awful in the post despite working on that skill for at least 3 summers now + getting substantial volume in that type of play for the past 3 seasons:

Spoiler:

In the past, his biggest problem there has been aversion to contact - often backing down defender or getting good positioning - but then defaulting to a turn around jumper or fadeaway. Hopefully those skills he's working on this summer allow him to attack the basket more frequently on those type of possessions. That should increase his finishing efficiency and in turn increase his free throw rate. That could turn it into a consistent and efficient weapon for the Magic's half court offense to rely on.

I'd say he still has plenty of scope to improve. Vuc has had a similarly up and down efficiency over those 4 years, but with age, experience and the right coach his numbers from this season were able to match Gordon's from last season after being ranked around the 25th percentile the previous 2 seasons.

They both share the same problem of avoiding contact. We need one of them to dig in and initiate more of that. AG would be our best hope in that regard. And as long as he continues to look for others that get open, he should be able to keep it as an efficient play. But posting up has never been a strength of his, other than when he gets a mismatch on a switch, in which case he's usually done well (by memory, I don't have numbers for that).

It should be a good development for him and the team overall, though.

Vucevic is and has always been efficient in the post, if he drew more fouls in the paint he'd be an elite level scoring big. He has augmented that inability to generate FT's by adding a 3PT shot, but ideally he would have both as that would take him to an entirely different level.

Vucevic creates a lot of the same contact that refs always call for top draft pick guys like Embiid and KAT, he just rarely gets those calls. Reputation and being able to sell-the-foul factor into that, but some of that rep is definitely deserved as Vucevic has never been a bull in the paint type big - instead he gets his shot off with very skilled footwork, ambidexterity around the rim and a large arsenal of shots.

Vucevic only had one bad post-up efficiency season (17-18) since that play has been tracked by the NBA. That was the year were he was injured for two months smack in the middle of the season. My guess is that just like the considerable drop off to his shooting (3P%: .343 to .250 / TS%: .557 to .496), his post-up efficiency also fell off after the injury.

15-16 348 poss / 50.2 eFG%
16-17 276 poss / 44.6 eFG%
17-18 180 poss / 39.6 eFG%
18-19 434 poss / 49.4 eFG%

Vucevic is also an excellent facilitator from both the high and low post, Gordon hasn't consistently demonstrated that skill as of yet. His passing has really improved in PnR type actions, but AG rarely passed out of the post. Maybe once he gets more comfortable and his bbIQ improves enough to quickly read coverages he could improve there.

Either way, its a good skill for him to develop as it could have beneficial effects to the Magic's half court offense - especially if the roster improves their 3PT shooting.

If Vuc's 16-17 season at 44.6%efg with 0.80ppp is efficient, then AG's 18-19 season should also be considered efficient, since it more or less matches that. (42%efg but 0.84ppp on fewer possessions, and a similar percentile ranking).

Similarly, in AG's 17-18 season he put up very similar numbers to what Vuc put up last season. 0.91ppp on 47.3%efg for AG and 0.94ppp on 49.4%efg.

In which case, AG would then have 2 efficient seasons out of those 4, which would mean he hasn't been 'awful'. Or, AG has been awful, and Vuc hasn't been that good either. Point being, there isn't an inseparable rift between the numbers of the two.

[ezzzp]

If Vuc's 16-17 season at 44.6%efg with 0.80ppp is efficient, then AG's 18-19 season should also be considered efficient, since it more or less matches that. (42%efg but 0.84ppp on fewer possessions, and a similar percentile ranking).

Similarly, in AG's 17-18 season he put up very similar numbers to what Vuc put up last season. 0.91ppp on 47.3%efg for AG and 0.94ppp on 49.4%efg.

In which case, AG would then have 2 efficient seasons out of those 4, which would mean he hasn't been 'awful'. Or, AG has been awful, and Vuc hasn't been that good either. Point being, there isn't an inseparable rift between the numbers of the two.

Volume matters, all you have to do is look at league-wide percentile ranking and PPP to see that it requires volume to glean anything from it...otherwise Luol Deng and Daniel Theis would be the best post up players in the NBA since they are at the top 99-100 percentile and have a PPP of 1.56 and 1.54.

Vucevic's volume has been 2-4 times greater than Gordon's.

On top of that, you have to add context.

Vucevic faces double teams most post ups + is usually defended by C's (many who are defensive anchors for their team). Plays are often run with him as the primary facilitator from the post, so teams focus their defense at him. AG posts when he has a mismatch; and if he happens to get caught outside of the restricted area defenses beg him to shoot it.

Also, .420 eFG% is NOT more-or-less .446 eFG%. That's like saying that Vucevic's .364 3P% is more-or-less the same as Terrence Ross' .383 3P%.

In the 4 years the post-up has been tracked by the NBA:

Gordon 378 poss @ 42.4 eFG%
Vucevic 1,238 poss @ 45.9 eFG%

That's 860 more possessions, under much more duress, and at a considerably higher %.

Vucevic is one of the better post up players in the NBA. Its why he gets that type of volume down there (see below). If he was able to draw fouls down there that would catapult him into a completely other level.

Players who received at least 300 post ups last season:



and if you want a wider margin (at least 200 post ups):

Spoiler:

[NickAndersonsBack25]

Wow this board isn't what it used to be.

Not even a thread about Diener in TBC!?

[pepe1991]

NBA rookies voted Cam Reddish to have the best career out of their 2019 draft class in a league-wide survey.

Rookies also voted Devin Booker and IRving as one of their favorite players.

This kids should stay in school... for like 5 more years

NOBODY voted for Steph as favorite player

[drsd]

NBA rookies voted Cam Reddish to have the best career out of their 2019 draft class in a league-wide survey.

Rookies also voted Devin Booker and IRving as one of their favorite players.

This kids should stay in school... for like 5 more years

NOBODY voted for Steph as favorite player

Last year this was Carter Jr. What a joke. Young, Dončić, and Ayton were all ace players. And Carter Jr. was widely expected to be "ok."

This poll is not real. And it is also not a popularity contestest. I guess it is a "vote for a guy that won't hurt my ranking" type vote. Such voting outcomes lead to odd results.

Outside Williamson, the dark horses here for me to be the 2019/20 GOAT are, in order RJ Barrett, Rui Hachimura, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, and Coby White. I do not think history will have Cam Reddish in the top-10 of this rookie class. A class with Tacko Fall !

..

[pepe1991]

NBA rookies voted Cam Reddish to have the best career out of their 2019 draft class in a league-wide survey.

Rookies also voted Devin Booker and IRving as one of their favorite players.

This kids should stay in school... for like 5 more years

NOBODY voted for Steph as favorite player

Last year this was Carter Jr. What a joke. Young, Dončić, and Ayton were all ace players. And Carter Jr. was widely expected to be "ok."

This poll is not real. And it is also not a popularity contestest. I guess it is a "vote for a guy that won't hurt my ranking" type vote. Such voting outcomes lead to odd results.

Outside Williamson, the dark horses here for me to be the 2019/20 GOAT are, in order RJ Barrett, Rui Hachimura, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, and Coby White. I do not think history will have Cam Reddish in the top-10 of this rookie class. A class with Tacko Fall !

..

Look at this, 2017

Who will be the 2017-18 Kia Rookie of the Year?
1. Dennis Smith Jr., Dallas -- 25.7%

2. Lonzo Ball, L.A. Lakers -- 20.0%

3. Markelle Fultz, Philadelphia -- 17.1%

4. Kyle Kuzma, L.A. Lakers -- 5.7%
Donovan Mitchell, Utah -- 5.7 %
Ben Simmons, Philadelphia -- 5.7%


Which rookie will have the best career?
1. Lonzo Ball, L.A. Lakers -- 18.4%
Jayson Tatum, Boston -- 18.4%

3. Josh Jackson, Phoenix -- 10.5%
Dennis Smith Jr., Dallas -- 10.5%

5. De'Aaron Fox, Sacramento -- 7.9%

6. Markelle Fultz, Philadelphia -- 5.3%
Harry Giles, Sacramento -- 5.3%
Ben Simmons, Philadelphia -- 5.3%

Which rookie is the best defender?
1. Josh Jackson, Phoenix -- 26.3%

2. Jordan Bell, Golden State -- 23.7%

3. Donovan Mitchell, Utah -- 21.1%

4. De'Aaron Fox, Sacramento -- 10.5%

5. Davon Reed, Phoenix -- 5.3%


btw, just like this year, in 2017 NOBODY voted Steph as favorite player, and even CARMELO ANYTHONY and JAMAL CRAWFORD recived votes.
No, really, this kids should stay in school until they are like ...30 ?

It's, mindblowing how out of touch, subjective and flat out dumb they are if they actually vote all this. I mean, 29% of them voted Chriss Dunn as ROY, Chriss Dunn as best playmaker, Chriss Dunn as best defender, Chirss Dunn as second best player who will have best career.. Like what an actual F?

They even voted him as "funniest player" and 2016 class voted Durant as favorite, but MELO as second favorite player. My God....