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Seismic Shift in the East: Thomas Bryant a Wizard

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Re: Seismic Shift in the East: Thomas Bryant a Wizard 

Post#361 » by payitforward » Wed Aug 21, 2019 10:32 pm

I_Like_Dirt wrote:
payitforward wrote:Actually, what you think is not that "Bryant is very good." What you think is that he is "at best a 10th man." You expressed yourself along those lines numerous times, right? But, you've never come out & said "I was very very wrong about Thomas Bryant," have you?


Save your sanctimony for when it's actually needed. I'm not sure where that might actually be but it isn't here.

As for being wrong about Bryant, he didn't move the needle this past season and he was 13th on the Wizards in mpg. I'm not sure how that's actually so far off from not moving the needle and 10th man. And me saying he's very good is effectively suggesting he's changing my mind. But you do you, I guess. :roll:

He's also shown some very good traits in general. He was absolutely phenomenal at finishing within 3 feet, shooting 82% on ~160 attempts or so. It's absolutely amazing. His potential range of the kind of player he might be is pretty wide at this point so I'm waiting to see more from him in general. It's his defense that's going to define whether he's a role player or a star and it could go either way at this point. I haven't seen anything to suggest he can't make that leap so far but there have been a lot of bigs who have struggled with that kind of transition no matter how hard they try. If he can't make the defensive leap, he's going to be more of a utility player, in certain respects very different but in others very similar to Jonas Valanciunas.

Really hard to say "I was wrong about Thomas Bryant," huh?
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Re: Seismic Shift in the East: Thomas Bryant a Wizard 

Post#362 » by payitforward » Wed Aug 21, 2019 10:41 pm

gtn130 wrote:
nate33 wrote:
gtn130 wrote:Ok, JJJ is significantly more valuable than Thomas Bryant and has far more upside. JJJ is only 19, and just had a rookie year that compares pretty favorably to Chris Bosh's age 19 rookie season.

JJJ will be way better than Thomas Bryant, and it's laughable to think otherwise.

I won't quibble with the statement that JJJ has more upside than Bryant given his age. But it's hard for me to agree that JJJ is currently as good as Bryant. By nearly every statistical measure, Bryant was quite a bit better.

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Well, I didn't actually say JJJ is currently as good or better than Bryant - just that he's more valuable and will be better in the future.

To your point, though, I'm not sure I even agree that Bryant is currently as good or better than JJJ, and I think the numbers you're citing only tell one small part of the story - and this is fundamentally why I disagree with PIF so much.

Bryant and JJJ are not taking the same types of shots, not playing the same role, not asked to do the same things in ways that are particularly relevant to this conversation. I've made the point a few time about Clint Capella's efficiency numbers being both great and not all that valuable because his role offensively is just very limited.

Some evidence of how this plays out:

% of shots taken with zero dribbles:
Bryant - 79%
JJJ - 51%

% of shots in which the player held the ball for 0-2 seconds
Bryant - 86%
JJJ - 61%

Based on this information, who do we think is more frequently taking easy shots? The answer should be obvious, and when you factor in that JJJ has far more defensive upside, is three years younger, and the #4 pick in the draft, there simply is not a viable argument that JJJ and Bryant are in the same class of prospect.

This is why sorting by bref even when talking *only* about offense isn't entirely adequate. Eye test and context matter, and if they didn't then NBA teams wouldn't have scouting departments.

1. Since we're talking about what people "didn't exactly say," -- no one has ever said that Bryant is as "valuable" as JJJ.
2. Actually, you don't know that JJJ "will be better (than Bryant) in the future." You don't *know* how good JJJ will be in the future! Nobody does. Nor is that statement meant to suggest any limitations on JJJ (or on Bryant for that matter).
3. Since the comparo between JJJ is not necessary to establish how good TB is/will be, it also doesn't matter who takes what kind of shots. What matters is how good a guy is at what he does & how valuable it is to do what he does.
4. No, sorry, "eye test" doesn't matter. Winning games matters to teams, & contributing to wins is what matters in understanding individuals. Period.

Why would anybody use JJJ to beat on Bryant? I don't get it.
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Re: Seismic Shift in the East: Thomas Bryant a Wizard 

Post#363 » by payitforward » Wed Aug 21, 2019 11:01 pm

I_Like_Dirt wrote:
payitforward wrote:Actually, what you think is not that "Bryant is very good." What you think is that he is "at best a 10th man." You expressed yourself along those lines numerous times, right? But, you've never come out & said "I was very very wrong about Thomas Bryant," have you?

Save your sanctimony for when it's actually needed. I'm not sure where that might actually be but it isn't here.

I'd appreciate your not addressing me in the imperative mode. You also might want to look up the word 'sanctimony' as it doesn't fit here. I don't think I have a moral edge on you at all. I just think I've been smarter than you about Thomas Bryant. Is that b/c I'm more experienced than you? Who knows? Given my age, it might not be a bad hypothesis

Feel free to disagree. One place to start to get past this would be for you to learn how to say "I was wrong" about... whatever. I've done it often enough here (&, you can be sure, had to say it plenty of times in situations of far greater gravity than ours here).

Show me that, & I'll start to take you seriously; that's a promise. Write inanities like the following, however...

I_Like_Dirt wrote:...As for being wrong about Bryant, he didn't move the needle this past season and he was 13th on the Wizards in mpg. I'm not sure how that's actually so far off from not moving the needle and 10th man. And me saying he's very good is effectively suggesting he's changing my mind.


...& no chance.

Take this seriously: I have no interest in being "enemies" with you, it's a waste of time. But, you clearly wanted to insist at any cost that Bryant was a bum (didn't see things fast enough, didn't react fast enough, etc. etc.) & would brook no opposition to your idee fixe. Drop it, say straightforwardly that you were mistaken, & we can move on to enjoy a conversation w/ headroom for something to build in it.

If it would make it easier for you to do so if you heard me say the same thing first, I'll be delighted to: point out a relevant case, something I need to say I was completely wrong about, & I'll do it.

edit: BTW, Thomas Bryant was 4th on the team in minutes last year -- low in mpg for the obvious reason (which no doubt you know) that he got meaninglessly small mpg for the first, what, 60% of the season?
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Re: Seismic Shift in the East: Thomas Bryant a Wizard 

Post#364 » by doclinkin » Thu Aug 22, 2019 12:54 am

payitforward wrote:Actually...


Dude. How many of these do you have to get into before you realize you’re the problem? We are all fans of the team. You make it tedious even to agree with you. Dirt has made it clear his opinion of Bryant is changing. Leave it be. Nobody owes you a word. It’s really tiresome to read. Hands11 got run off the board for spamming all the time about how right he was. You’ve been cautioned by mods on your style. I like a good dust up. But this adds nothing. Nobody here cares if you were first to be right on any topic. Move on. Find something new to say. It’s boring. A waste of your considerable talents.

I know it’s late in the off-season and there’s nothing to talk about but come on. Of all people you can make better wordpiles and have more betterer thinkings than: “I smarter than you: say it. Say it...” no one’s playing that game. Drop it.

On topic:

The way I see it Dirt sets a reasonable bar in challenging Bryant’s defense and rebounding. To say if he develops here then he will have a greater effect on the league and we can count him among the best. And if not then no matter how efficient he is he on offense his minutes and role will be limited. Players like Boban can have insanely efficient stats on offense and be unplayed if not unplayable, primarily due to mobility and defense.

I think it’s an interesting question. Seems to me the league is still adjusting to find out where and how to use bigs. Bryant is a young player and himself is learning what he can and cannot do. Team defense tends to develop late and is one aspect of the game that is most able to be influenced by coaching. And personnel mesh. Watching TBry’s movement at the Rico Hines open run he is willingly challenging the perimeter players. We only see the highlights so of course he’s getting burned in these clips, but his movements are far more fluid and comfortable than he has shown in the past. He deters shots. Stays with guys if not always a n front of them. Active feet. He’s not a standstill liability out there. Positive signs.

I agree with Nate and have said it elsewhere that he (and Hachimura) really need to learn to anchor a solid pick before they slip into their roll. Hard to do when you have the high center of gravity that Bryant shows. He starts his roll early because it takes him a bit to get rolling in momentum. It’s a lateral move to start. But as he leans and strengthens this will speed up too. I think Hachimura may be better eventually, being both solid and athletic. But this will help everyone around him.

However. The one dribble/zero dribble stat is interesting to me. The league has gotten away from forcing the ball to the bigs. But. When you have players as stupidly efficient as Bryant (and Boban, man,I love that guy) it seems like it’d be a coaching flaw if you can’t find a way to exploit that.

It’s absolutely a strength that Bryant can score quickly and decisively. Players like Moritz suck because they will dribble the helloutta the ball and do nothing with it. (For laughs sort for Centers who dribble 6 or more times. Wagner shows up). One reason Bryant doesn’t turn the ball over is because he does react quickly when he gets it. He keeps the ball high out of traffic and puts it down before defenders collapse. That’s not a sign of weakness. That’s smart.

However from a coaching perspective yes featuring a pass dependent player means you need spacing around him to give you clear lanes to pass to him for that high % play. And you need smart ball handlers and passers who recognize that mismatch and exploit it.

I agree with Nate. I think the situational statheads and on staff watching the hot zones in video analytics are seeing something in Bryant they plan to feature heavily.

The same nail I’ve been redundantly hammering: make space. Get Ball handlers who can stay in motion and keep the ball alive, probe the defense and deliver to the finishers. Let them do what they do well. Finishing is something Bryant does really damn well.

I wonder if it will work. It puts a ton of responsibility in the hands of the Point. So far, aside from Curry we have never seen a championship delivered by a dominant PG. And Stef is Stef, the threat of his impossible range made everyone else’s job easier on offense. Plus his off ball game is better than everyone’s. And. You know Draymond is a precognitive mutant basketball savant.

Granted we are so far away from that discussion anyway. I’ll be happy to see it play out in the regular season. If we even end up a weak simulacrum of the Steve Nash Suns I’ll be happy. Hachimura would have to somehow develop into Shawn Marion on defense. And I dunno if that’s gonna happen.

But yes. Looks to me that Forcefeeding Bryant and featuring him heavily is pretty much plan B or C on the squad this year. Looks like we’ll get a chance to see how it turns out.
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Re: Seismic Shift in the East: Thomas Bryant a Wizard 

Post#365 » by Liverbird » Thu Aug 22, 2019 3:38 am

doclinkin wrote:
Dude. How many of these do you have to get into before you realize you’re the problem? We are all fans of the team. You make it tedious even to agree with you. Dirt has make it clear his opinion of Bryant is changing. Leave it be. Nobody owes you a word. It’s really tiresome to read. Hands11 got run off the board for spamming all the time about how right he was. You’ve been cautioned by mods on your style. I like a good dust up. But this adds nothing. Nobody here cares if you were first to be right on any topic. Move on. Find something new to say. It’s boring...


Thank you Doc...

I joined this board 17 years ago and been a season ticket holder for almost as long. My last post was in 2015. While I come back occasionally to lurk and enjoy some of the insightful and often times defeatist banter shared only between Wizard fans, I will say that both Hands and PIF drove me away with the tenor and tone of their posts. It wasn’t the trolls, it wasn’t the ignorance...but the disrespectful and dismissive tone. It’s not enjoyable to read, much less engage.

PIF, we don’t know each other and frankly, my post will likely mean nothing to you and that’s fine. But in the event it might, please take notice from one of the most well respected posters on this board.

Logging off for another 5 years :)
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Re: Seismic Shift in the East: Thomas Bryant a Wizard 

Post#366 » by gtn130 » Thu Aug 22, 2019 2:12 pm

I can't imagine electing not to post because of PIF's "tone." You guys need to lighten up - maybe PIF gets a little out of line but it isn't that serious.

What IS annoying is PIF making absurdly pedantic arguments about how we can't responsibly speculate about anything that hasn't yet occurred and how basketball statistics recorded on basketballreference dot com are the single source of basketball truth
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Re: Seismic Shift in the East: Thomas Bryant a Wizard 

Post#367 » by doclinkin » Thu Aug 22, 2019 2:25 pm

gtn130 wrote:I can't imagine electing not to post because of PIF's "tone."

...

What IS annoying is PIF making absurdly pedantic arguments



Okay so his content AND his tone :clown:

I think we are all just a little stir crazy and waiting for basketball to start (FIBA at least) so all the good arguments have been used up and we are just recycling old ones.
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Re: Seismic Shift in the East: Thomas Bryant a Wizard 

Post#368 » by willbcocks » Thu Aug 22, 2019 2:31 pm

gtn130 wrote:I can't imagine electing not to post because of PIF's "tone." You guys need to lighten up - maybe PIF gets a little out of line but it isn't that serious.

What IS annoying is PIF making absurdly pedantic arguments about how we can't responsibly speculate about anything that hasn't yet occurred and how basketball statistics recorded on basketballreference dot com are the single source of basketball truth


I understand it. The blocking function does not work. I block PIF, but it's not effective because I have to remember to log-in, and because he's quoted by others. Sanctimonious and tedious are words that were used in this thread, and are not things I want to deal with in my limited free time outside of work.
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Re: Seismic Shift in the East: Thomas Bryant a Wizard 

Post#369 » by nate33 » Thu Aug 22, 2019 2:48 pm

willbcocks wrote:
gtn130 wrote:I can't imagine electing not to post because of PIF's "tone." You guys need to lighten up - maybe PIF gets a little out of line but it isn't that serious.

What IS annoying is PIF making absurdly pedantic arguments about how we can't responsibly speculate about anything that hasn't yet occurred and how basketball statistics recorded on basketballreference dot com are the single source of basketball truth


I understand it. The blocking function does not work. I block PIF, but it's not effective because I have to remember to log-in, and because he's quoted by others. Sanctimonious and tedious are words that were used in this thread, and are not things I want to deal with in my limited free time outside of work.

Wow! If nothing else, PIF managed to get willbcocks to post.

That's your one post, willbcocks. We'll see you in another two months! :D
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Re: Seismic Shift in the East: Thomas Bryant a Wizard 

Post#370 » by gtn130 » Thu Aug 22, 2019 3:14 pm

willbcocks wrote:
gtn130 wrote:I can't imagine electing not to post because of PIF's "tone." You guys need to lighten up - maybe PIF gets a little out of line but it isn't that serious.

What IS annoying is PIF making absurdly pedantic arguments about how we can't responsibly speculate about anything that hasn't yet occurred and how basketball statistics recorded on basketballreference dot com are the single source of basketball truth


I understand it. The blocking function does not work. I block PIF, but it's not effective because I have to remember to log-in, and because he's quoted by others. Sanctimonious and tedious are words that were used in this thread, and are not things I want to deal with in my limited free time outside of work.


Just keep scrolling. When you see posts by the poster "payitforward" stop reading and scroll with your thumb or mouse
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Re: Seismic Shift in the East: Thomas Bryant a Wizard 

Post#371 » by payitforward » Thu Aug 22, 2019 5:19 pm

Liverbird wrote:
doclinkin wrote:
Dude. How many of these do you have to get into before you realize you’re the problem? We are all fans of the team. You make it tedious even to agree with you. Dirt has make it clear his opinion of Bryant is changing. Leave it be. Nobody owes you a word. It’s really tiresome to read. Hands11 got run off the board for spamming all the time about how right he was. You’ve been cautioned by mods on your style. I like a good dust up. But this adds nothing. Nobody here cares if you were first to be right on any topic. Move on. Find something new to say. It’s boring...


Thank you Doc...

I joined this board 17 years ago and been a season ticket holder for almost as long. My last post was in 2015. While I come back occasionally to lurk and enjoy some of the insightful and often times defeatist banter shared only between Wizard fans, I will say that both Hands and PIF drove me away with the tenor and tone of their posts. It wasn’t the trolls, it wasn’t the ignorance...but the disrespectful and dismissive tone. It’s not enjoyable to read, much less engage.

PIF, we don’t know each other and frankly, my post will likely mean nothing to you and that’s fine. But in the event it might, please take notice from one of the most well respected posters on this board.

Logging off for another 5 years :)

3 things, Liverbird:

1. If you can point me to an example of being "disrespectful" (quote me, if you would), I'll apologize for it.
2. I don't think I've ever called you "troll," "ignorant," "dismissive," or anything -- either negative or positive.
3. You mention that your last post was in 2015. So, at that point you'd already been on the Board 13 years & posted 587 times. You'd been posting @45 times a year in other words. I joined the board in 2012. You sure you really want to make me responsible for your very occasional participation?

If you are really "logging off for another 5 years" (though from my pov, I would certainly prefer that you become an active participant instead), I assume you won't be able to respond to this. Maybe you won't agree with what I'm about to say, but perhaps you'll understand it: it's hard to take seriously criticism that comes from someone who doesn't engage with you.
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Re: Seismic Shift in the East: Thomas Bryant a Wizard 

Post#372 » by payitforward » Thu Aug 22, 2019 5:23 pm

gtn130 wrote:I can't imagine electing not to post because of PIF's "tone." You guys need to lighten up - maybe PIF gets a little out of line but it isn't that serious...

Yeah!
gtn130 wrote:What IS annoying is PIF making absurdly pedantic arguments about how we can't responsibly speculate about anything that hasn't yet occurred and how basketball statistics recorded on basketballreference dot com are the single source of basketball truth

I would never ever -- not even twice -- do that. I wouldn't do that even once per 40 minutes!
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Re: Seismic Shift in the East: Thomas Bryant a Wizard 

Post#373 » by payitforward » Thu Aug 22, 2019 5:28 pm

willbcocks wrote:
gtn130 wrote:I can't imagine electing not to post because of PIF's "tone." You guys need to lighten up - maybe PIF gets a little out of line but it isn't that serious.

What IS annoying is PIF making absurdly pedantic arguments about how we can't responsibly speculate about anything that hasn't yet occurred and how basketball statistics recorded on basketballreference dot com are the single source of basketball truth

I understand it. The blocking function does not work. I block PIF, but it's not effective because I have to remember to log-in, and because he's quoted by others. Sanctimonious and tedious are words that were used in this thread, and are not things I want to deal with in my limited free time outside of work.

willbcocks, I agree totally: I wouldn't want to deal with sanctimonious, tedious remarks (like these last few from my fellow-posters, for example) much either, so you have my sympathy on that. Also for how hard you have to work.
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Re: Seismic Shift in the East: Thomas Bryant a Wizard 

Post#374 » by doclinkin » Thu Aug 22, 2019 5:47 pm

HA! Way to not take criticism or admit when you're wrong. :)
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Re: Seismic Shift in the East: Thomas Bryant a Wizard 

Post#375 » by payitforward » Thu Aug 22, 2019 6:01 pm

doclinkin wrote:
payitforward wrote:Actually...

Dude. ...you’re the problem....

When you have players as stupidly efficient as Bryant ... It’s absolutely a strength that Bryant can score quickly and decisively. Players like Moritz suck because they will dribble the helloutta the ball and do nothing with it. (For laughs sort for Centers who dribble 6 or more times. Wagner shows up). One reason Bryant doesn’t turn the ball over is because he does react quickly when he gets it. He keeps the ball high out of traffic and puts it down before defenders collapse. That’s not a sign of weakness. That’s smart. ...

...I agree with Nate. I think the situational statheads and on staff watching the hot zones in video analytics are seeing something in Bryant they plan to feature heavily. .... Looks to me that forcefeeding Bryant and featuring him heavily is pretty much plan B or C on the squad this year. Looks like we’ll get a chance to see how it turns out.

Screw off, doc. Nah... that's not what I mean. What I mean is that Bryant was 13th in mpg last year, as I...Dirt points out. Which, as he also points out is not that different from "10th man at best." But, still, old friend, yeah -- screw off anyway, ok? Visionary tho you are. Despite my not meaning it...

&, yes, it does make sense to agree with nate about Bryant. In fact, about basketball nate is quite often right, never long-winded (like you or me), judicious & thoughtful in his choice of subject. Rarely either dismissive or thoughtlessly enthusiastic. Almost always data-driven.

Like you, Ruz, Zards, & more than a few others on this board as well, nate is someone I feel sure I'd enjoy knowing personally. I.e. beyond the limits (which are sensible -- not saying otherwise) of a context such as ours.

But, please, don't get me wrong: I'm not suggesting that he (or you others) would enjoy knowing someone like me! A sanctimonious jerk who thinks of himself as superior to others & feels it's his role in life to uplift them, to convert them to close reading of per 40-minute boxscore stats, which (as those familiar with the concept of "gematria" will grasp instantly) are capable of containing all of wisdom within a tiny compass.

No... I'm sure it would be burdensome to know me. I can only hope that I never get to that point -- that I never come to know myself. What a monstrous wastrel the mirror would present to my view! Fortunately, in the few years remaining of those so generously allotted me, it's an unlikely development.

For that reason, I suggest that -- imperfect though it is -- you all consider using the "ignore" facility to avoid encountering me. It's ok; I only like to talk to myself anyway.
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Re: Seismic Shift in the East: Thomas Bryant a Wizard 

Post#376 » by payitforward » Thu Aug 22, 2019 6:07 pm

doclinkin wrote:HA! Way to not take criticism or admit when you're wrong. :)

& you thought I'd never learn anything from you! Or from I_like_dirt! But, as you see, I have.

Oughta show you what a dummy you are, doc -- &, worst of all, wrong, so very wrong, about me! :)
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Re: Seismic Shift in the East: Thomas Bryant a Wizard 

Post#377 » by payitforward » Fri Aug 23, 2019 4:17 pm

(I can't believe doc hasn't already looked up "gematria" & responded.)
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Re: Seismic Shift in the East: Thomas Bryant a Wizard 

Post#378 » by doclinkin » Fri Aug 23, 2019 4:23 pm

payitforward wrote:(I can't believe doc hasn't already looked up "gematria" & responded.)


As if you don’t think I could teach you a thing or two about various traditions of numerology. I’m the guy who created the metaphysical thread in here. If my opinions differ, well who am I to argue with the ancient Hebrews?

(Present company excluded of course... )

But drop a mathematically powerful construct in the poetry thread and see what happens.

On topic: I like that all of the Wizards advertising for the upcoming year features Bryant center and large and roaring. Next to Hachimura and under Beal. Clearly the team expects big things from him.
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Re: Seismic Shift in the East: Thomas Bryant a Wizard 

Post#379 » by dckingsfan » Fri Aug 23, 2019 4:41 pm

And big things we will see - it will be an epic year for Mr. Bryant.
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Re: Seismic Shift in the East: Thomas Bryant a Wizard 

Post#380 » by Kanyewest » Fri Aug 23, 2019 7:35 pm

I'm looking forward for Bryant to do this JJJ move on LeBron this season :D

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