What an 80% KD Means to Me

[ecuhus1981]

I know that our board is split down the middle, regarding the return from injury and unveiling in a Brooklyn Nets uniform of one Kevin Durant. I understand operating with an abundance of caution. Even if we kept him out 24 months, there is a risk of some sort of future injury along the kinetic chain. With a clean bill of health after 6.5 months, we afford KD a further 3 months of ramping up to game action and still make it back before the end of the regular season. We don't know what version of Durant we will receive, but many suggest a mixture of post-prime KG and Dirk until he gets back into rhythm, which could take months. This will be a shell of his full self, but no amount of rest will prevent atrophy and rust from being away from the game. In fact, more rest than he needs could lengthen his re-acclimation process. I digress...

In the meanwhile, that rounding-into-form version of Kevin could still swing a playoff series (or 3!) in our favor. Let's pretend an 80% KD is good for 21/5/5 on 44/36/86 shooting, 118ORTG and 111DRTG. That's a far cry from his career numbers, but around the league, teams would KILL to get a boost like that for the postseason!

Here is how I see us matching up with fellow EC playoff teams next spring:

WITHOUT KD
MIL - lose in 6
PHI - lose in 5 (again :/)
TOR - win in 7
IND - lose in 6
BOS - win in 7
MIA - lose in 7
ORL - win in 6


Now, let's add the compromised edition of Easy Money Sniper to our team (which IMO makes either Harris or Prince more effective, and slots them into a more effective bench)
WITH KD
MIL - lose in 7
PHI - win in 7
TOR - win in 6
IND - win in 7
BOS - win in 6
MIA - win in 6
ORL - win in 5

His presence flips 3 different matchups in our favor, taking us from a probably 1st-round exit to a near-lock for the EC Finals. The PFs who would have an advantage over us without KD (Horford, Gordon, Sabonis, Siakam, Tatum, Olynyk) would all lose that head-to-head with Durant's presence at 80% capacity. The only PF who would out-class us at that point is Giannis, and even that series is a coin-flip.

Guys, 2013 Kevin Durant is not walking through that door. It won't take vintage KD to turn this from a pretty neat season, into an all-time stunner. Of course, the heavy lifting of the season is going to come down to getting the best version of Kyrie in his inaugural homecoming season, and getting marked improvement from our young supporting cast. However, those attributes can only take us so far. In the playoffs, it comes down to matchups, and X's and O's matter less than Jimmy's and Joe's. We will have an MVP candidate "Jimmy" with Irving; a poor-man's Kevin Durant (a rich-man's Rashard Lewis) might be a better "Joe" than anyone else in the East can boast.

80% KD: he's not the hero that we deserve, he's the hero we need.

[gigantes]

Interesting and relevant post.

I really have no idea about the numbers guesstimations, but take comfort in the Nets having such a topnotch medical and training staff. I know KD said it was his own decision to come back a couple months ago, and specifically absolved the Warriors' staff, but I'm not 100% that the Warriors were blameless. That is, based on commentary I've seen, it doesn't sound like rocket science to me that his previous (not fully healed) injury had a high probability to put stress on his Achilles. I.e., I think there's still a decent argument that the med staff should have held him out regardless, and I can't help wonder how much his impending FA status factored in to the overall decision. Water under the bridge, I guess. :/


> I know that our board is split down the middle, regarding the return from injury and unveiling in a Brooklyn Nets uniform of one Kevin Durant.

Huh. I hadn't really gotten that impression... from the general Nets fanbase, anyway. I thought most fans were super-stoked about KD playing for the Nets, and were also pretty positive about his injury recovery.

Ironically, it felt like I was one of the very few who wanted no part of KD and Kyrie, and was in fact hoping the Nets had moved in other directions. That said, I've been slowly coming around on both. It was also very helpful to learn the inside story of what the Nets exec staff were saying in reply to Marks question to them-- "should we pull the trigger on this?" It sounded like they were almost uniformly, enthusiastically in favor. Hard to argue with that or hold on to my regrets in this case.

[FNQ]

Hey Nets fans - one note on KD and the Achilles injury:

Not sure if any of you play fantasy football, but on today's Fantasy Focus podcast (Matthew Berry, Field Yates, Stephania Bell), around the 16min mark they start talking about Emmanuel Sanders and Demariyus Thomas, two WR who had their seasons ended by Achilles injuries, who are coming back way before fans expected. And Stephania (who's a medical authority) delves into the why, and how Achilles' injuries are not the death sentence they once were.

Toyed around with posting this on the GB but it gets lost in seas of nonsense there.

http://www.espn.com/espnradio/podcast/archive/_/id/2942325
8/22 show (Texans/Jaguars)
16:30 mark

[Prokorov]

I know that our board is split down the middle, regarding the return from injury and unveiling in a Brooklyn Nets uniform of one Kevin Durant. I understand operating with an abundance of caution. Even if we kept him out 24 months, there is a risk of some sort of future injury along the kinetic chain. With a clean bill of health after 6.5 months, we afford KD a further 3 months of ramping up to game action and still make it back before the end of the regular season. We don't know what version of Durant we will receive, but many suggest a mixture of post-prime KG and Dirk until he gets back into rhythm, which could take months. This will be a shell of his full self, but no amount of rest will prevent atrophy and rust from being away from the game. In fact, more rest than he needs could lengthen his re-acclimation process. I digress...

In the meanwhile, that rounding-into-form version of Kevin could still swing a playoff series (or 3!) in our favor. Let's pretend an 80% KD is good for 21/5/5 on 44/36/86 shooting, 118ORTG and 111DRTG. That's a far cry from his career numbers, but around the league, teams would KILL to get a boost like that for the postseason!

Here is how I see us matching up with fellow EC playoff teams next spring:

WITHOUT KD
MIL - lose in 6
PHI - lose in 5 (again :/)
TOR - win in 7
IND - lose in 6
BOS - win in 7
MIA - lose in 7
ORL - win in 6


Now, let's add the compromised edition of Easy Money Sniper to our team (which IMO makes either Harris or Prince more effective, and slots them into a more effective bench)
WITH KD
MIL - lose in 7
PHI - win in 7
TOR - win in 6
IND - win in 7
BOS - win in 6
MIA - win in 6
ORL - win in 5

His presence flips 3 different matchups in our favor, taking us from a probably 1st-round exit to a near-lock for the EC Finals. The PFs who would have an advantage over us without KD (Horford, Gordon, Sabonis, Siakam, Tatum, Olynyk) would all lose that head-to-head with Durant's presence at 80% capacity. The only PF who would out-class us at that point is Giannis, and even that series is a coin-flip.

Guys, 2013 Kevin Durant is not walking through that door. It won't take vintage KD to turn this from a pretty neat season, into an all-time stunner. Of course, the heavy lifting of the season is going to come down to getting the best version of Kyrie in his inaugural homecoming season, and getting marked improvement from our young supporting cast. However, those attributes can only take us so far. In the playoffs, it comes down to matchups, and X's and O's matter less than Jimmy's and Joe's. We will have an MVP candidate "Jimmy" with Irving; a poor-man's Kevin Durant (a rich-man's Rashard Lewis) might be a better "Joe" than anyone else in the East can boast.

80% KD: he's not the hero that we deserve, he's the hero we need.

I think you are DRASTICALLY underselling what an 80% KD is... maybe his defense suffers and he isnt dunking all over people on drives but he is still a top 5-10 scorer, elite three point shooter and 7 footer that causes all kinds of matchup problems when we play him at the 4 or 5. an 80% KD is the easts 2nd best player behind Giannis.

there is 0 chance a 5-8 seed gives us a tough series with an 80% KD. we are blowing out indy.boston/miami in 5 games and maybe philly also. i think we would at least take milwaukee 7 and probably beat them too.

also 0% chance we lose to indy without KD and we would run boston off the floor no way that gpes 7

[Prokorov]

Hey Nets fans - one note on KD and the Achilles injury:

Not sure if any of you play fantasy football, but on today's Fantasy Focus podcast (Matthew Berry, Field Yates, Stephania Bell), around the 16min mark they start talking about Emmanuel Sanders and Demariyus Thomas, two WR who had their seasons ended by Achilles injuries, who are coming back way before fans expected. And Stephania (who's a medical authority) delves into the why, and how Achilles' injuries are not the death sentence they once were.

Toyed around with posting this on the GB but it gets lost in seas of nonsense there.

http://www.espn.com/espnradio/podcast/archive/_/id/2942325
8/22 show (Texans/Jaguars)
16:30 mark

its his right achilies, like domonique i expect 90% KD this year and 100% next year

[ecuhus1981]

I think you are DRASTICALLY underselling what an 80% KD is... maybe his defense suffers and he isnt dunking all over people on drives but he is still a top 5-10 scorer, elite three point shooter and 7 footer that causes all kinds of matchup problems when we play him at the 4 or 5. an 80% KD is the easts 2nd best player behind Giannis.

there is 0 chance a 5-8 seed gives us a tough series with an 80% KD. we are blowing out indy.boston/miami in 5 games and maybe philly also. i think we would at least take milwaukee 7 and probably beat them too.

also 0% chance we lose to indy without KD and we would run boston off the floor no way that gpes 7

We can agree to disagree about what percentages mean, the player behind the % is my point.

If 80% Durant is better than the 21/5/5 that I've defined, then yay, we're in even better position. Regardless, whatever % you define as a 21/5/5 KD, whether that means 60% or 70% to you, THAT DUDE is enough to help get us to the EC Finals, perhaps more.

You seem super bullish on our playoff chances, and that's cool. Now is the time for unbridled optimism.

[Prokorov]

I think you are DRASTICALLY underselling what an 80% KD is... maybe his defense suffers and he isnt dunking all over people on drives but he is still a top 5-10 scorer, elite three point shooter and 7 footer that causes all kinds of matchup problems when we play him at the 4 or 5. an 80% KD is the easts 2nd best player behind Giannis.

there is 0 chance a 5-8 seed gives us a tough series with an 80% KD. we are blowing out indy.boston/miami in 5 games and maybe philly also. i think we would at least take milwaukee 7 and probably beat them too.

also 0% chance we lose to indy without KD and we would run boston off the floor no way that gpes 7

We can agree to disagree about what percentages mean, the player behind the % is my point.

If 80% Durant is better than the 21/5/5 that I've defined, then yay, we're in even better position. Regardless, whatever % you define as a 21/5/5 KD, whether that means 60% or 70% to you, THAT DUDE is enough to help get us to the EC Finals, perhaps more.

You seem super bullish on our playoff chances, and that's cool. Now is the time for unbridled optimism.

its less about the numbers and more about 7 footer who is wet from three and can handle the ball. thats nightmare matchup problems on top of what will likely be a top 10 offense before he comes back. thats two top 12 players in kyrie and 21/5/5 durant.... as i showed in the lever thread, 21/5/5 is pretty elite and outside of an outlier or 2 you only see that by top 5-10 players....

[MrDollarBills]

Hey Nets fans - one note on KD and the Achilles injury:

Not sure if any of you play fantasy football, but on today's Fantasy Focus podcast (Matthew Berry, Field Yates, Stephania Bell), around the 16min mark they start talking about Emmanuel Sanders and Demariyus Thomas, two WR who had their seasons ended by Achilles injuries, who are coming back way before fans expected. And Stephania (who's a medical authority) delves into the why, and how Achilles' injuries are not the death sentence they once were.

Toyed around with posting this on the GB but it gets lost in seas of nonsense there.

http://www.espn.com/espnradio/podcast/archive/_/id/2942325
8/22 show (Texans/Jaguars)
16:30 mark

Do you happen to know which leg the injuries occurred in?

[MrDollarBills]

Do you guys think we should just punt the season and let KD come back next year? I really don't want to see him rush his way back onto the court until he's physically and mentally ready. The mental part especially.

[Prokorov]

Do you guys think we should just punt the season and let KD come back next year? I really don't want to see him rush his way back onto the court until he's physically and mentally ready. The mental part especially.

we are a 50 win team without KD. so thats hardly "punting". let him come back organically. if its this year great. if not great.

[ecuhus1981]

Do you guys think we should just punt the season and let KD come back next year? I really don't want to see him rush his way back onto the court until he's physically and mentally ready. The mental part especially.

There will be no rush. You seem to equate the normal recovery time, plus 10 weeks of practice preparation and ramp-up, as a rush. It's not, in fact I wouldn't be surprised if the timeline is sooner than I've outlined in the OP.

9 months from surgery to in-game is not a rush recovery for an Achilles injury anymore, especially on your non-dominant leg. Beyond that, if KD is not recovering at pace or isn't ready to jump the mental hurdle and put weight and torsion on the leg, our FO is going to wait. Based on prior experience, KD is not likely to lag in mental preparation; if he does, scratch him.

[TheNetsFan]

I think you are DRASTICALLY underselling what an 80% KD is... maybe his defense suffers and he isnt dunking all over people on drives but he is still a top 5-10 scorer, elite three point shooter and 7 footer that causes all kinds of matchup problems when we play him at the 4 or 5. an 80% KD is the easts 2nd best player behind Giannis.

there is 0 chance a 5-8 seed gives us a tough series with an 80% KD. we are blowing out indy.boston/miami in 5 games and maybe philly also. i think we would at least take milwaukee 7 and probably beat them too.

also 0% chance we lose to indy without KD and we would run boston off the floor no way that gpes 7

We can agree to disagree about what percentages mean, the player behind the % is my point.

If 80% Durant is better than the 21/5/5 that I've defined, then yay, we're in even better position. Regardless, whatever % you define as a 21/5/5 KD, whether that means 60% or 70% to you, THAT DUDE is enough to help get us to the EC Finals, perhaps more.

You seem super bullish on our playoff chances, and that's cool. Now is the time for unbridled optimism.

its less about the numbers and more about 7 footer who is wet from three and can handle the ball. thats nightmare matchup problems on top of what will likely be a top 10 offense before he comes back. thats two top 12 players in kyrie and 21/5/5 durant.... as i showed in the lever thread, 21/5/5 is pretty elite and outside of an outlier or 2 you only see that by top 5-10 players....

This. It was never athleticism that made Durant great. It was length & skill. Those are not in jeopardy of going away. Even when he dunks on guys, it's more length than elevation. He's probably not guarding SFs anymore. No harm done there, as he's a PF in our system anyway, even if never injured his Achilles.

[Prokorov]

We can agree to disagree about what percentages mean, the player behind the % is my point.

If 80% Durant is better than the 21/5/5 that I've defined, then yay, we're in even better position. Regardless, whatever % you define as a 21/5/5 KD, whether that means 60% or 70% to you, THAT DUDE is enough to help get us to the EC Finals, perhaps more.

You seem super bullish on our playoff chances, and that's cool. Now is the time for unbridled optimism.

its less about the numbers and more about 7 footer who is wet from three and can handle the ball. thats nightmare matchup problems on top of what will likely be a top 10 offense before he comes back. thats two top 12 players in kyrie and 21/5/5 durant.... as i showed in the lever thread, 21/5/5 is pretty elite and outside of an outlier or 2 you only see that by top 5-10 players....

This. It was never athleticism that made Durant great. It was length & skill. Those are not in jeopardy of going away. Even when he dunks on guys, it's more length than elevation. He's probably not guarding SFs anymore. No harm done there, as he's a PF in our system anyway, even if never injured his Achilles.

if we roll out a lineup with KD at center... say:

Kyrie, Spencer, Levert, Harris, KD thats causing all sorts of issues for teams. you cant hide a slower big on any of those guys...

[TheNetsFan]

its less about the numbers and more about 7 footer who is wet from three and can handle the ball. thats nightmare matchup problems on top of what will likely be a top 10 offense before he comes back. thats two top 12 players in kyrie and 21/5/5 durant.... as i showed in the lever thread, 21/5/5 is pretty elite and outside of an outlier or 2 you only see that by top 5-10 players....

This. It was never athleticism that made Durant great. It was length & skill. Those are not in jeopardy of going away. Even when he dunks on guys, it's more length than elevation. He's probably not guarding SFs anymore. No harm done there, as he's a PF in our system anyway, even if never injured his Achilles.

if we roll out a lineup with KD at center... say:

Kyrie, Spencer, Levert, Harris, KD thats causing all sorts of issues for teams. you cant hide a slower big on any of those guys...

I can see a lot of KD at Center, but I don't know about 3 PGs & Harris in that scenario. I could see Prince in as the PF.

[Prokorov]

This. It was never athleticism that made Durant great. It was length & skill. Those are not in jeopardy of going away. Even when he dunks on guys, it's more length than elevation. He's probably not guarding SFs anymore. No harm done there, as he's a PF in our system anyway, even if never injured his Achilles.

if we roll out a lineup with KD at center... say:

Kyrie, Spencer, Levert, Harris, KD thats causing all sorts of issues for teams. you cant hide a slower big on any of those guys...

I can see a lot of KD at Center, but I don't know about 3 PGs & Harris in that scenario. I could see Prince in as the PF.

I think its easier to hide a center on prince. can do that with harris, they would need to go small to match us, i think thats the advantage. with prince on the floor you put your forward on KD and live with hoping prince doesnt score at will on your bigman. which you 100% live with if it takes the ball out of KDs hands.

you can hide a big on Kyrie/spencer/Levert... thats BBQ chicken. cant hide the big on harris, he runs too much off ball and deadly on threes.

[Papi_swav]

We will be the team to beat even if we get half of what KD was. His 3 point shooting and his shooting in general is not going anywhere. He can easily shoot over anybody with barely even jumping. He was never that quick or a guy that jumps out the gym anyway. This system is perfect for KD .

[ecuhus1981]

if we roll out a lineup with KD at center... say:

Kyrie, Spencer, Levert, Harris, KD thats causing all sorts of issues for teams. you cant hide a slower big on any of those guys...

I agree that this lineup can work wonders against some teams.

Basketball is about adjustments that create a competitive advantage. Right now, small-ball is the advantage that everyone is trying to either emulate or counteract. I do feel that certain teams have adapted to this "death lineup" strategy, and have countered by doubling down on bruising C's with enough mobility on D and court vision on O to vex small-ball lineups. I see IND's Turner/Sabonis combo, PHI's Horford/Embiid tandem and MIL's GA/Lopez duo as examples of this. None of them are quite as adept on the perimeter as KD, not even Giannis. But among traditional frontcourt lineups, I believe that these pairings are built far better to exploit the weaknesses of small-ball, while mitigating the strengths of their small-ball foes.

Fortunately, as small-ball teams go, we have an embarrassment of riches in the frontcourt to combat bullyball. We're just so talented, versatile and well-equipped to navigate the current NBA landscape. I know that I'm completely biased as a Nets fanatic, but I think that NBA experts across the board are underestimating our team. I see projected wins from deep statisticians ranging from 38-44 to 41-41, expecting a regression. Even the most optimistic national pundits are only claiming 46 wins. I feel that this season is going to sweet for a number of reason, not the least of which is proving the doubters wrong.

[MrDollarBills]

its less about the numbers and more about 7 footer who is wet from three and can handle the ball. thats nightmare matchup problems on top of what will likely be a top 10 offense before he comes back. thats two top 12 players in kyrie and 21/5/5 durant.... as i showed in the lever thread, 21/5/5 is pretty elite and outside of an outlier or 2 you only see that by top 5-10 players....

This. It was never athleticism that made Durant great. It was length & skill. Those are not in jeopardy of going away. Even when he dunks on guys, it's more length than elevation. He's probably not guarding SFs anymore. No harm done there, as he's a PF in our system anyway, even if never injured his Achilles.

if we roll out a lineup with KD at center... say:

Kyrie, Spencer, Levert, Harris, KD thats causing all sorts of issues for teams. you cant hide a slower big on any of those guys...

That's the death line up right here. You know Kenny probably stays up all night thinking about the day he can use this line up.

[Prokorov]

This. It was never athleticism that made Durant great. It was length & skill. Those are not in jeopardy of going away. Even when he dunks on guys, it's more length than elevation. He's probably not guarding SFs anymore. No harm done there, as he's a PF in our system anyway, even if never injured his Achilles.

if we roll out a lineup with KD at center... say:

Kyrie, Spencer, Levert, Harris, KD thats causing all sorts of issues for teams. you cant hide a slower big on any of those guys...

That's the death line up right here. You know Kenny probably stays up all night thinking about the day he can use this line up.

there really arent many centers KD cant at least hold his own with either. and even vs elite centers at least he is mathcing them offensively and creating the most space ever in the history of stretch 5s.

[MrDollarBills]

if we roll out a lineup with KD at center... say:

Kyrie, Spencer, Levert, Harris, KD thats causing all sorts of issues for teams. you cant hide a slower big on any of those guys...

That's the death line up right here. You know Kenny probably stays up all night thinking about the day he can use this line up.

there really arent many centers KD cant at least hold his own with either. and even vs elite centers at least he is mathcing them offensively and creating the most space ever in the history of stretch 5s.

When we play against Philly it will be interesting to see what Brett Brown does. We'll have to double Embiid and make him give the ball up on defense and he'd be crazy to put Embiid on and island on Durant in our ISO sets.

The FACT that I'm even talking about this is insane.