#18 - GOAT peaks project (2019)

[E-Balla]

[Wait what? In 1995 their Orating was 109.7 for the entire year(curious what it was before the trade).If they had 112.4 for the entire season that wouldve put them 5th.

League wide ORTG goes up as the year goes on and teams stop playing as hard defensively and gel more offensively. A 112.4 ORTG would've been 5th over the full season, but it was 9th post trade.

Drexler’s Orating was litererally 119 during the regular season and 120 during the playoffs. No idea where you’re getting the idea that he made them worse offensively.

That's individual ORTG, that's a completely different stat with a completely different meaning. There is no on court ORTG dating back to 94.

And regarding D-Rob’s defense. I’m talking about his entire playoffs.

Well we're discussing his play against Houston. No one really cares about him beating up on 12th and 11th ranked offenses of -0.0 and +0.9 teams, everyone here could, would, and has done the same.

Also the Spurs still held the Rockets as a team below their usual Orating with Drexler.

Yes thanks to poor shooting from Houston while he was getting torched for 35 a night.

As far as KG goes we are talking about specific years. KG’s playoff performance in 04 isnt anything special. (Relative to other greats or D-Rob in 95)

1. We're talking about how good players are in a given year it's worth discussing whether or not a player outside that year was still never good to establish that it's a pattern to their game and not an issue of low sample size.

2. KG's performance wasn't special. No one said it was. It was still way better than Robinson.

Also not sure where you’re getting the more volume thing from. D-Rob has him beat in per 36, per 100 possession and per game scoring. KG has him beat soundly in playmaking but not scoring. The biggest knock against 95 D-Rob is that he was roasted by a guy we have down as clearly better than him and one of the best playoff performers ever.

If I'm playing a 41 win team D. Rob is my guy. Unfortunately we're not discussing GOAT peaks against 41 win teams. His volume against good teams isn't the same as KG's. Also per 36 and per 100 scoring isn't a good measurement of volume. USG% and TSA per 100/36 are, but they played in 2 different environments with a totally different league average TS%.

[Odinn21]

Well, I’m going to try another way to put it about Admiral.

Name David Robinson’s best playoff series in his peak years. Then compare it to the best playoff series of the following names;
Barkley, Ewing, Malone, Moses, Nowitzki, Bryant, Durant, CP3, Zeke, Nash, Kidd, Frazier, Harden, Havlicek, Cowens, Big E. These are the ones I thought about very quickly.

Then compare the number of good/elite/great playoff series performances among those names. Especially against good/elite/great defensive teams.

BTW, I’d like to clear out I’m not saying all of the players I listed are better than Robinson. Just pointing out the vote is about goat peaks and he doesn’t have a case to be in the top 20. That’s what I’m saying.

[E-Balla]

It's not that simple though, because Malone faced far better competition (overall and defensively) than Robinson. It's not even comparable and Malone was still clearly better passer than Admiral (and especially Ewing).

I don't think there is much debate on who is better offensively, though I'd take Admiral overall due to his defense.

Better offensively, sure. But I was responding to the claim that Malone and Ewing were "far more capable" overall. I'm just saying the offensive gap is small enough here that the defensive difference makes it completely reasonable to take Robinson.

I'd like more detail on the competition before I can completely agree. I think this is less about competition and more about Robinson's lack of elite post moves, Malone's low release point in the paint, Ewing's vulnerability to doubling, etc. I do agree that Malone was probably the best of the three on offense because of his great passing.

They are far more capable if you adjust for the quality of defense though. We can't just give Robinson credit for beating bad teams. And there's been detail on the competition being posted for like 5 straight threads now.

[E-Balla]

Well, I’m going to try another way to put it about Admiral.

Name David Robinson’s best playoff series in his peak years. Then compare it to the best playoff series of the following names;
Barkley, Ewing, Malone, Moses, Nowitzki, Bryant, Durant, CP3, Zeke, Nash, Kidd, Frazier, Harden, Havlicek, Cowens, Big E. These are the ones I thought about very quickly.

Then compare the number of good/elite/great playoff series performances among those names. Especially against good/elite/great defensive teams.

BTW, I’d like to clear out I’m not saying all of the players I listed are better than Robinson. Just pointing out the vote is about goat peaks and he doesn’t have a case to be in the top 20. That’s what I’m saying.

It's telling his best series is also the one everyone likes to say we unfairly judge his whole career off of because as much as we talking about him getting dominated by Hakeem, it's clearly the most impressive 7 game series he's ever played.

[ccameron]

Likes for everyone, civil discussion so far in this thread, it warms my heart to see greats from all eras discussed, keep it up!

[Mavericksfan]

League wide ORTG goes up as the year goes on and teams stop playing as hard defensively and gel more offensively. A 112.4 ORTG would've been 5th over the full season, but it was 9th post trade.

That’s news to me. Any info on where they were ranked pre-trade?

That's individual ORTG, that's a completely different stat with a completely different meaning. There is no on court ORTG dating back to 94.

Also news to me so thank you for pointing that out.

Well we're discussing his play against Houston. No one really cares about him beating up on 12th and 11th ranked offenses of -0.0 and +0.9 teams, everyone here could, would, and has done the same.

I’m sorry but I wasn’t. My vote isnt based on one playoff series and I dont think it makes sense to base everything off of that.

Yes thanks to poor shooting from Houston while he was getting torched for 35 a night.

If he’s the one anchoring the defense and it performs well why wouldnt he be given credit? I doubt Houston simply missed nothing but wide open shots. Their defense (including perimeter D) is backed by D-rob. His defensive presence is far more than his ability to hold his man in check.

1. We're talking about how good players are in a given year it's worth discussing whether or not a player outside that year was still never good to establish that it's a pattern to their game and not an issue of low sample size.

2. KG's performance wasn't special. No one said it was. It was still way better than Robinson.

1.I actually disagree with this. That leads to bias towards players that have better overall careers instead of focusing on them at their actual peaks.

2. I agree better but the “way” is where I think we disagree.

If I'm playing a 41 win team D. Rob is my guy. Unfortunately we're not discussing GOAT peaks against 41 win teams. His volume against good teams isn't the same as KG's. Also per 36 and per 100 scoring isn't a good measurement of volume. USG% and TSA per 100/36 are, but they played in 2 different environments with a totally different league average TS%.

USG% takes into account playmaking as well. Were you referring to scoring volume or overall role within an offense?

His defense still holds up on ‘95 and and his regular season speaks for itself.

I completely understand that you don’t care about reg season or playoffs against average or lower teams. I don’t evaluate players based solely on how well they score against the elite because a season is about more than that.

[E-Balla]

That’s news to me. Any info on where they were ranked pre-trade?

They had a 108.9 ORTG and ranked 7th.

Also news to me so thank you for pointing that out.

No problem.

I’m sorry but I wasn’t. My vote isnt based on one playoff series and I dont think it makes sense to base everything off of that.

It's not based off one series though. It's based off a career of similar series which shows that he has a flaw in his game which makes him unable to play well against good defenses. That's an important flaw because he's being compared to guys without that problem. You play to win the game, while there's championship level first options on the board what's the excuse for taking anyone else?

If he’s the one anchoring the defense and it performs well why wouldnt he be given credit? I doubt Houston simply missed nothing but wide open shots. Their defense (including perimeter D) is backed by D-rob. His defensive presence is far more than his ability to hold his man in check.

Cool but there's a gap between holding your man in check and getting your ass handed to you.

1.I actually disagree with this. That leads to bias towards players that have better overall careers instead of focusing on them at their actual peaks.

2. I agree better but the “way” is where I think we disagree.

1. But their flaws in their game don't disappear because they got lucky enough to not face their weakness does it? In Robinson's peak year, he still can't play well offensively against great defenses. KG playing bad once doesn't mean it's a flaw in his game necessarily. It's not a bias towards better careers, better players just happen to have better careers for some reason.

2. If that's where we disagree, sure, my point that you're comparing him to a superior player still stands.

USG% takes into account playmaking as well. Were you referring to scoring volume or overall role within an offense?

USG% doesn't take playmaking into account at all. It's only shots, free throws, and turnovers.

His defense still holds up on ‘95 and and his regular season speaks for itself.

I completely understand that you don’t care about reg season or playoffs against average or lower teams. I don’t evaluate players based solely on how well they score against the elite because a season is about more than that.

Watch on YouTube

If player A can give me a ring and player B can win me regular season games what matters more? Would you have rather been a Warriors fan or a Cavs fan in 2016? A Pats fan or a Giants fan in 2007?

[No-more-rings]

I do think the criticisms of Robinson are valid, and if i’m to be consistent with my whole approach of ranking players by how good a chance they give you a title, Drob should probably fall some but how much idk. I gotta at least have Kobe over him, Ewing vs Drob is still interesting and i probably need to watch some more film of how both were defended, etc. I’m still going to give Drob that for now but may change it later.

1. 2006 Kobe- Reasons stated already, efficient high volume scoring machine, with decent enough playmaking to anchor a top 10 offense with relatively poor support. 06 Kobe would give you all that 08/09 could and possibly more.

2. 95 Drob- Even if he’s not a legit first offensive opinion, still an all time great defender, and a bad matchup in Hakeem doesn’t erase that.

3. 90 Pat Ewing- Highly efficient volume scorer and defensive anchor, took it to the Celtics in the 1st round dropping 31.6 ppg/59.7 ts%, and won in 5 who appeared to would’ve been favored over them that year, still managed 27 ppg/56 ts% against the eventual champion and very strong defense Pistons. Idk, maybe this is a bit high for Ewing but i do think he has a solid case for top 20 peak.

[Narigo]

Well, I’m going to try another way to put it about Admiral.

Name David Robinson’s best playoff series in his peak years. Then compare it to the best playoff series of the following names;
Barkley, Ewing, Malone, Moses, Nowitzki, Bryant, Durant, CP3, Zeke, Nash, Kidd, Frazier, Harden, Havlicek, Cowens, Big E. These are the ones I thought about very quickly. Then compare the number of good/elite/great playoff series performances among those names. Especially against good/elite/great defensive teams.

BTW, I’d like to clear out I’m not saying all of the players I listed are better than Robinson. Just pointing out the vote is about goat peaks and he doesn’t have a case to be in the top 20. That’s what I’m saying.

Well Robinson did average 26/13 on 76TS% on against the Warriors in 91.

28/14 on 63Ts% against Nuggets in his rookie year against 7th ranked Nuggets Defense .

Also in his rookie season, he averaged 23/11 on 56% TS against the 4th ranked Blazers defense.

And yeah i think rook D-Rob was close to peak form considering he was arguably better than Peak Ewing

[E-Balla]

Well Robinson did average 26/13 on 76TS% on against the Warriors in 91.

They were a bottom 5 defense and they got upset by them because the Spurs offense was attrocious.

28/14 on 63Ts% against Nuggets in his rookie year against 7th ranked Nuggets Defense .

Also in his rookie season, he averaged 23/11 on 56% TS against the 4th ranked Blazers defense.

And yeah i think rook D-Rob was close to peak form considering he was arguably better than Peak Ewing

Rookie D. Rob was a 2nd option to Terry Cummings who took more shots and ran the offense more.

Plus no one here is voting rookie D. Rob and for good reason. It's clear his role as a 2nd option is why he got those numbers. It makes no sense to compare him to Ewing who was a first option and never got the luxury of playing with someone like Terry Cummings. There's no one ever arguing Robinson vs Ewing in 90 and if you'd like to make the case I'm all ears.

[cecilthesheep]

Well, I’m going to try another way to put it about Admiral.

Name David Robinson’s best playoff series in his peak years. Then compare it to the best playoff series of the following names;
Barkley, Ewing, Malone, Moses, Nowitzki, Bryant, Durant, CP3, Zeke, Nash, Kidd, Frazier, Harden, Havlicek, Cowens, Big E. These are the ones I thought about very quickly.

Then compare the number of good/elite/great playoff series performances among those names. Especially against good/elite/great defensive teams.

BTW, I’d like to clear out I’m not saying all of the players I listed are better than Robinson. Just pointing out the vote is about goat peaks and he doesn’t have a case to be in the top 20. That’s what I’m saying.

It's telling his best series is also the one everyone likes to say we unfairly judge his whole career off of because as much as we talking about him getting dominated by Hakeem, it's clearly the most impressive 7 game series he's ever played.

I don't think we unfairly judge Robinson's career off of that series. I think we completely misjudge what happened in that series and how damaging it was for Rodman to essentially just quit on help defense. He played, at worst, fine. Not a player in the league who could have guarded Hakeem on an island like that.

I also don't think it was his best series ever, though. Look at what he did to the Lakers just one series before. And look at what he did in 1993 against the Suns. Or the 1990 Trail Blazers. Or the first-round beatdowns on the 1990 Nuggets and 1996 Suns. The embarrassing loss in '91 was also not his fault at all - we're talking about Robinson here, not his teammates, and he put up 25 points on 76% true shooting.

[cecilthesheep]

Well Robinson did average 26/13 on 76TS% on against the Warriors in 91.

They were a bottom 5 defense and they got upset by them because the Spurs offense was attrocious.

28/14 on 63Ts% against Nuggets in his rookie year against 7th ranked Nuggets Defense .

Also in his rookie season, he averaged 23/11 on 56% TS against the 4th ranked Blazers defense.

And yeah i think rook D-Rob was close to peak form considering he was arguably better than Peak Ewing

Rookie D. Rob was a 2nd option to Terry Cummings who took more shots and ran the offense more.

Plus no one here is voting rookie D. Rob and for good reason. It's clear his role as a 2nd option is why he got those numbers. It makes no sense to compare him to Ewing who was a first option and never got the luxury of playing with someone like Terry Cummings. There's no one ever arguing Robinson vs Ewing in 90 and if you'd like to make the case I'm all ears.

D-Rob was not a second option to Cummings. He came into the league at 24 ready to go and immediately led his team in points per game (while playing historically good defense). At most, they were co-first options, but I think that overstates Cummings' role a little bit.

I count Robinson's best years as starting at his rookie season for sure. He wasn't immediately better than Ewing, no, but he was still great and absolutely not a second option, and any comprehensive evaluation of his playoff record has to include those years. You seem to be limiting the playoff sample to roughly 40 games which contain most of his worst moments and eliminate some of his best.

[cecilthesheep]

Well, I’m going to try another way to put it about Admiral.

Name David Robinson’s best playoff series in his peak years. Then compare it to the best playoff series of the following names;
Barkley, Ewing, Malone, Moses, Nowitzki, Bryant, Durant, CP3, Zeke, Nash, Kidd, Frazier, Harden, Havlicek, Cowens, Big E. These are the ones I thought about very quickly.

Then compare the number of good/elite/great playoff series performances among those names. Especially against good/elite/great defensive teams.

BTW, I’d like to clear out I’m not saying all of the players I listed are better than Robinson. Just pointing out the vote is about goat peaks and he doesn’t have a case to be in the top 20. That’s what I’m saying.

It's telling his best series is also the one everyone likes to say we unfairly judge his whole career off of because as much as we talking about him getting dominated by Hakeem, it's clearly the most impressive 7 game series he's ever played.

Part of this is that I think when we're judging peaks regular season has to matter a lot because playoff sample sizes become so small. I look at the best regular seasons a player puts together and then try to evaluate the playoffs in the context of how his game generally translated, who he played in the years in question, etc. I'll take the rest of his playoff career into account in the sense that it provides me more information about whether a bad series was a fluke or a pattern. So Robinson had an inexcusably bad series in '94, and two really good series and a middling one in '95. I don't really see that as a black mark against '94, more like no cherry on top but still a great year.

[cecilthesheep]

Also the Spurs still held the Rockets as a team below their usual Orating with Drexler.

Yes thanks to poor shooting from Houston while he was getting torched for 35 a night.

Because Robinson was given the impossible task of defending Hakeem one-on-one while everyone else stayed home ... that "poor shooting" was because the Spurs defense was trying to make Hakeem do everything, not because of luck. I hesitate to say it was the game plan, because Rodman was supposed to double and refused to do it, but surely you understand how this works when a team says "if this guy beats us, he beats us, but we're not giving up open 3s"? If the Rockets' team OR was lower than usual, something was working.

[Mavericksfan]

They had a 108.9 ORTG and ranked 7th

Thanks, so I’ll retract my Drexler comments from earlier. I misunderstood the individual ORTG.

It's not based off one series though. It's based off a career of similar series which shows that he has a flaw in his game which makes him unable to play well against good defenses. That's an important flaw because he's being compared to guys without that problem. You play to win the game, while there's championship level first options on the board what's the excuse for taking anyone else?

I agree that there’s a clear flaw in his game that leads to his game not being at it’s usual level. But his baseline is much higher than others due to his top tier defensive impact. I believe he’d be more than capable of winning a ring as a hybrid 1st/2nd option like KG was in 08. He shared similar struggles to KG when in the role of major usage primary option.

Cool but there's a gap between holding your man in check and getting your ass handed to you.

As a defense isnt it your job to slow down the opposing team? I believe you place too much emphasis on 1 on 1 matchups when it’s a game of 5 on 5. Amare went crazy against Duncan in 05 but the Spurs held the Suns slightly below their normal ORTG.

1. But their flaws in their game don't disappear because they got lucky enough to not face their weakness does it? In Robinson's peak year, he still can't play well offensively against great defenses. KG playing bad once doesn't mean it's a flaw in his game necessarily. It's not a bias towards better careers, better players just happen to have better careers for some reason.

2. If that's where we disagree, sure, my point that you're comparing him to a superior player still stands.

1. I see where you’re coming from. I interpreted this project differently. I thought this was a project ranking peak seasons from players vs peak skillsets. I look at what they did that season and rank them from there.

USG% doesn't take playmaking into account at all. It's only shots, free throws, and turnovers.

Turnovers come from passing /ball handing in general as well not just scoring attempts.

If player A can give me a ring and player B can win me regular season games what matters more? Would you have rather been a Warriors fan or a Cavs fan in 2016? A Pats fan or a Giants fan in 2007?

I agree with this but basketball is a team sport. I dont think the only way to win is by having an unstoppable playoff scorer as your first option. I think D-Rob’s defensive impact and skillset allows him to fit on a myriad of championship caliber team as the best player.

[E-Balla]

Great points from Cecil and mavsfan. I'm going to be busy tonight but I'll try to get to them before the thread closes.

[liamliam1234]

Few points:

1. I love that after a few threads of trying, Eballa (and to a much lesser extent Odinn and I) have been able to convince people to give a slightly weaker vote for Robinson... such that he will still win this round semi-comfortably.

2. Eballa (and others, including myself quoting FrogBros) have already made the case that Robinson’s playoff defence does not hold up against opposing bigs as a first option (last thread, I acknowledged he could still be adding value in team defence... but it would basically need to be a level of team defence that overcame every other top defender’s overall defence). That has largely been unaddressed in favour of acting as if the Rockets series is some aberration.

3. Yes, the defensive scheme was not favourable to Robinson. But he still failed, and again, it was relatively normal for that to be the case.

4. The notion that the Spurs had a decent team defensive rating in that Rockets series because of Robinson is pretty laughable. It almost sounds like one of those “face-to-fist style” fighting jokes. Are we really making excuses for him that being roasted by Hakeem while the rest of the Rockets are closely guarded becomes his primary value? What, he gets a boost for dying as as a sacrificial lamb?

5. Again, I have also quibbled with Eballa over the whole “1990 first option” issue, but when we have been detailing how he fails as a sole offensive force, having someone provide even similar offensive production is a major change, and that shows in Robinson’s relative performance. Unless you believe he actually peaked in 1990 or 1991, why should that reflect well on how he played as a first-option at his peak?

6. It has also been thoroughly detailed that the drop-off occurs against any decent defence. Citing negative or below-average defences which failed to stop him does not counter that point.

7. A specific recent point was that Robinson, regardless of everything, is still capable of leading a team to a championship. How? He won five series in his pre-injury years, one of which was as a rookie sharing offensive responsibility. He routinely lost to the lower seed either every year or every year but one. He could not handle the offensive load against any decent defence, which you tend to encounter as you progress in the playoffs. Furthermore, despite routinely playing cupcake defensive teams and rarely playing good ones, his overall playoff averages are still significantly and obviously depressed (losing about a quarter of value in WS/48 and BPM). The mainstay backup, his defence, has seen no real evidence that he could be a true lone defensive anchor against top (maybe not even middling) offensive talent; we know he can be awesome as a second option, but does that really correspond to peak play?
Even just leading a team to the Finals is difficult; asserting that Robinson could lead his team to victory in one, with basically no evidence suggesting he could apart from the fact of his mere presence in one conference finals series, does not correspond at all to the thorough information we have presented on his regular shortcomings in the postseason.

[Morb]

1. T-Mac 2003 - GOAT Offensive Game, best OBPM in 25 years (from 1990 to 2015), lifted Orlando ORtg from 91.8 to 109.3 (+8% eFG), great body, versality, handles, underrated passer, low tovs, good series vs DRtg 99.9 (-3.7).
2. McAdoo 1975 - Scoring Machine, shooting 6'10, rebounds, historically great series vs DRtg 91.3 (-6.4). Wow.
3. Chris Paul 2008 - Top 3 PG Peak, assists, tempo, quickness, low tows, great playoffs.
http://bkref.com/tiny/Es4q0

[Odinn21]

I’ve seen Duncan’s performance against Stoudemire in 2005 got brought up several times in these recent Robinson conversations.

I’d like to remind that Duncan missed two weeks very near to the end of the season due to sprained ankle and it was the ankle which was worn out from previous injuries. And he came back from injury to test and prepare himself for the rest of the season.

Duncan at that point was not in shape to keep with Amare’s quickness. And in that series, Popovich wanted Duncan not to challenge shots as hardly as TD’s used to.

If we keep talking about Robinson and his performance against Hakeem while mentioning Rodman’s refusal to double Hakeem, we should also mention this. And the h2h in 2007 between Timmy and Amare kinda shows that 2005 was a rather outlier though Amare was half a step slower than himself in 2005.

I get that Rodman not helping had a great impact on the outcome. But we’re here to talk about individual performances and situations and I find Duncan’s injured ankle a bit more important than Rodman’s situation because it was a direct knock on the player’s capabilities.

[Mavericksfan]

Few points:
3. Yes, the defensive scheme was not favourable to Robinson. But he still failed, and again, it was relatively normal for that to be the case.

4. The notion that the Spurs had a decent team defensive rating in that Rockets series because of Robinson is pretty laughable. It almost sounds like one of those “face-to-fist style” fighting jokes. Are we really making excuses for him that being roasted by Hakeem while the rest of the Rockets are closely guarded becomes his primary value? What, he gets a boost for dying as as a sacrificial lamb?

7. A specific recent point was that Robinson, regardless of everything, is still capable of leading a team to a championship. How? He won five series in his pre-injury years, one of which was as a rookie sharing offensive responsibility. He routinely lost to the lower seed either every year or every year but one. He could not handle the offensive load against any decent defence, which you tend to encounter as you progress in the playoffs. Furthermore, despite routinely playing cupcake defensive teams and rarely playing good ones, his overall playoff averages are still significantly and obviously depressed (losing about a quarter of value in WS/48 and BPM). The mainstay backup, his defence, has seen no real evidence that he could be a true lone defensive anchor against top (maybe not even middling) offensive talent; we know he can be awesome as a second option, but does that really correspond to peak play?
Even just leading a team to the Finals is difficult; asserting that Robinson could lead his team to victory in one, with basically no evidence suggesting he could apart from the fact of his mere presence in one conference finals series, does not correspond at all to the thorough information we have presented on his regular shortcomings in the postseason.

Just wanted to touch on a few of these.

3. Did he really “fail” tho? I’ll say it till my face is blue. This is a team sport. Do you think Duncan failed in 05? Horford in 2011 vs Dwight? Ben Wallace in 04 vs Shaq? (Wanted to clarify I’m referring specifically to defense. He was clearly outplayed especially offensively)

Sometimes teams will allow a superstar to go 1 on 1 and put up crazy boxscore stats if it means their offense overall is worse. It happens.

4. Same as above. I’m interested in your opinions of those players defense performances.

7. You know what’s funny? You sound exactly like K.G. detractors prior to 2008. I think similar to KG , D-Rob would work best with another good scorer capable of being a closer(which we’ve seen work for him)