Johnny Bball wrote:If Hayward doesn't come off the bench again, Stevens is making the same mistake again. Tatum/Brown are better. Hayward isn't a 4 ( or too many spots he's not good at defending the 4). Especially with the hole at centre. And don't care how positive anyone wants to try and be about that. 14/6 and pretty average efficiency I would expect.
There are a lot of statistics we can parse to make an argument one way or the other. But it's interesting in this case how many STILL favor "really terrible Hayward year coming off big injury."
Offensively, Hayward and Brown had some similarities, from mpg to fg% and 3fg%... only Hayward is a much better passer and free throw shooter.
Interestingly, more advanced stats favor Hayward even more. He had a better VORP than either young guy. He had a higher PER. He was the only one of the three who was a plus player with OBPM and DBPM. More WinShares/48.
Now there are some caveats to that:
1. Tatum was 20. Brown was 22. It's expected for both to improve. Maybe even a lot.
2. Hayward very clearly was less aggressive than in the past. He was passive. And he seemed to lack much explosiveness.
3. Did he simply pad his stats against the lowly Timberwolves? Consider his two games vs. the Wolves:
32.5 ppg
5.0 reb
6.5 ast
22 - 34 fg
8 - 12 3fg
Too bad the Wolves are in the other conference.
Bottom line: Even with Hayward at his "worst"... and indecisive and passive... he was a plus two-way player who was pretty efficient. Considering he's still in his 20s... I don't know why anybody would assume he wouldn't improve this season if healthy.