The Shapiro & Rogers Megathread

[Fairview4Life]

I wonder where that new "half" of the Indians starting lineup in 2016 came from? Probably aliens or grown in a lab by the new Indians GM.

Ratul: AAehAAa gets credit for anything good after he left! Like Vladdy! Shapiro and Atkins...nah.

[Schad]

You might want to look at where those "new" players came from. Among position players, the biggest additions as full-timers were Jose Ramirez and Tyler Naquin...guys who'd emerged from their farm system. The only other three regulars added in 2019 were Rajai Davis, Mike Napoli and Juan Uribe, who were their 6th, 9th and 16th most-valuable position players.

On the pitching side, Kluber/Salazar/Carrasco/Bauer anchored their rotation in 2015, and anchored it again in 2016. Most of the bullpen was the same, as well. Andrew Miller was a big addition mid-season, sure, but they were cruising to a division title when he was acquired, and he didn't exactly come cheap.

Antonetti has done a fine job, and likely deserves a lot of the credit for the moves made prior to 2016, too...he was, after all, the GM from 2011 forward. But you can't really have it both ways, attributing the losses during their rebuild to Shapiro, and the wins when it came to fruition to Antonetti.

[BigLeagueChew]

Yeah, the Indians strength has actually been their rotation and defense. While we might not have that now, their is reason to be optimistic that at some point we will.

" The cognitive dissonance is astounding."

Like the way you leave out facts to fit your narrative.

[wamco]

I was for trading Giles at deadline but we couldn’t so I think he is here til next trade deadline. I’d love to load up on 3 fa sp. if you could get 3 of the odorizzi,bumgarner, wheeler types for 3 yr 51m contracts (17 AAV) , I’d be pretty excited for 2020

[dagger]

We're back to arguing with ratul, are we? It's like arguing with a climate change denier. You throw up science, he throws up that it wasn't the hottest July ever in one tiny rat hole of a town somewhere in East Podunk\

[ratul]

Yeah, the Indians strength has actually been their rotation and defense. While we might not have that now, their is reason to be optimistic that at some point we will.

" The cognitive dissonance is astounding."

Like the way you leave out facts to fit your narrative.

What?

The MINIMUM for a front office in order to gauge its success should be actually being there to do the job. Shats was not GM of the Indians in 2016. He has not won a division title in 10 years. On that comparison alone, Double A destroys Shats with two division titles and close to a third if we include Double A's team this year assuming all goes well.

Now, we get to 2016. The key year. I argue Shats had little to do with the Blue Jays success or the Indians success based on the following:

1) All nine starters from the 2016 Blue Jays opening day lineup were on the 2015 team (EE, Martin, Colabello, Goins, Bringer of Rain, Tulo, Saunders, Pillar and Jose). That's double A's team. No doubt about it.

2) By contrast, five of the nine starters for Cleveland in 2016 were brought in by the new management after Shats left (Rajai Davis, Juan Uribe, Collin Cowgill, Mike Napoli and Marlon Byrd). Of course, this also excludes their ALCS MVP Andrew effing Miller who was also brought in by new management.

Now, Cleveland had Lindor and Kluber due to shats but most teams have some good players. But as we know, you don't win with a couple of good players whom you have under extended control, even if it is 42 years of control. Otherwise, the Mike Trout/Pujols Angels would have multiple rings by now.

Again, the cognitive dissonance and lack of objective analysis is staggering. I am amazed so many people have drunk the shat Kool-aid.

[Schad]

2) By contrast, five of the nine starters for Cleveland in 2016 were brought in by the new management after Shats left (Rajai Davis, Juan Uribe, Collin Cowgill, Mike Napoli and Marlon Byrd). Of course, this also excludes their ALCS MVP Andrew effing Miller who was also brought in by new management.

Collin Cowgill appeared in 9 games in 2016. He recorded one hit on the season. Marlon Byrd appeared in 34 games. Where are you getting that they were key members of that team.

Here are the position players who appeared in 50+ games in 2015: Santana, Kipnis, Brantley, Chisenhall, Lindor, Aviles, Ramirez, Gomes, Bourn, Moss, Murphy, Raburn, Urshela, Carlos Perez, Almonte.

And in 2016: Lindor, Santana, Kipnis, Ramirez, Napoli, Davis, Chisenhall, Naquin, Gomes, Uribe, Almonte, Gimenez, Carlos Perez, Michael Martinez.


So let's look at what was the same: Santana, Kipnis, Chisenhall, Lindor, Ramirez, Gomes, Perez, Almonte. Plus the addition of Naquin from the farm.

That leaves the in/out as:

Out: Aviles, Bourn, Moss, Murphy, Raburn, Urshela.
In: Napoli, Davis, Uribe, Gimenez, Martinez.


Their 2015 and 2016 lineups were quite similar: they added a couple pieces on the margins, but those additions didn't really make them better. Mike Napoli and Rajai Davis were a marginal upgrade over Moss/Murphy, and if you're going to argue that Juan fking Uribe (who was released mid-season on account of being absolutely done as a baseball player) was a difference-maker, we're living in two separate planes of reality here.

Mostly, the good young players they already had got better, and they rebounded from an injury-plagued year that saw Lindor and others miss significant time, which wasn't a huge shock as they'd won between 81 and 92 games the previous three seasons.

Now, Cleveland had Lindor and Kluber due to shats but most teams have some good players. But as we know, you don't win with a couple of good players whom you have under extended control, even if it is 42 years of control. Otherwise, the Mike Trout/Pujols Angels would have multiple rings by now.

Lindor and Santana and Kluber and Kipnis and Ramirez and Naquin and Gomes and Salazar and Carrasco and Bauer and Allen and Shaw and a deep farm system that allowed them to make trades. But other than that, y'know.

Antonetti deserves a lot of the credit for helping to build that roster...before 2016. But it's utterly laughable to suggest that the team was going nowhere until he added Mike Napoli and Rajai Davis.

[vaff87]

2) By contrast, five of the nine starters for Cleveland in 2016 were brought in by the new management after Shats left (Rajai Davis, Juan Uribe, Collin Cowgill, Mike Napoli and Marlon Byrd). Of course, this also excludes their ALCS MVP Andrew effing Miller who was also brought in by new management.

Collin Cowgill appeared in 9 games in 2016. He recorded one hit on the season. Marlon Byrd appeared in 34 games. Where are you getting that they were key members of that team.

Here are the position players who appeared in 50+ games in 2015: Santana, Kipnis, Brantley, Chisenhall, Lindor, Aviles, Ramirez, Gomes, Bourn, Moss, Murphy, Raburn, Urshela, Carlos Perez, Almonte.

And in 2016: Lindor, Santana, Kipnis, Ramirez, Napoli, Davis, Chisenhall, Naquin, Gomes, Uribe, Almonte, Gimenez, Carlos Perez, Michael Martinez.


So let's look at what was the same: Santana, Kipnis, Chisenhall, Lindor, Ramirez, Gomes, Perez, Almonte. Plus the addition of Naquin from the farm.

That leaves the in/out as:

Out: Aviles, Bourn, Moss, Murphy, Raburn, Urshela.
In: Napoli, Davis, Uribe, Gimenez, Martinez.


Their 2015 and 2016 lineups were quite similar: they added a couple pieces on the margins, but those additions didn't really make them better. Mike Napoli and Rajai Davis were a marginal upgrade over Moss/Murphy, and if you're going to argue that Juan fking Uribe (who was released mid-season on account of being absolutely done as a baseball player) was a difference-maker, we're living in two separate planes of reality here.

Mostly, the good young players they already had got better, and they rebounded from an injury-plagued year that saw Lindor and others miss significant time, which wasn't a huge shock as they'd won between 81 and 92 games the previous three seasons.

Now, Cleveland had Lindor and Kluber due to shats but most teams have some good players. But as we know, you don't win with a couple of good players whom you have under extended control, even if it is 42 years of control. Otherwise, the Mike Trout/Pujols Angels would have multiple rings by now.

Lindor and Santana and Kluber and Kipnis and Ramirez and Naquin and Gomes and Salazar and Carrasco and Bauer and Allen and Shaw and a deep farm system that allowed them to make trades. But other than that, y'know.

Antonetti deserves a lot of the credit for helping to build that roster...before 2016. But it's utterly laughable to suggest that the team was going nowhere until he added Mike Napoli and Rajai Davis.

Personally, I feel Collin Cowgill and his -14 wRC+ in 14 PA is what put the 2016 Indians over the top, schad.

[Schad]

Ask anyone on that team, and they'll tell you that Cowgill getting that single before being stranded, in a random April game against the Mets, was the pivotal moment in their season.

[BigLeagueChew]

What?

The MINIMUM for a front office in order to gauge its success should be actually being there to do the job. Shats was not GM of the Indians in 2016. He has not won a division title in 10 years. On that comparison alone, Double A destroys Shats with two division titles and close to a third if we include Double A's team this year assuming all goes well.

Now, we get to 2016. The key year. I argue Shats had little to do with the Blue Jays success or the Indians success based on the following:

1) All nine starters from the 2016 Blue Jays opening day lineup were on the 2015 team (EE, Martin, Colabello, Goins, Bringer of Rain, Tulo, Saunders, Pillar and Jose). That's double A's team. No doubt about it.

2) By contrast, five of the nine starters for Cleveland in 2016 were brought in by the new management after Shats left (Rajai Davis, Juan Uribe, Collin Cowgill, Mike Napoli and Marlon Byrd). Of course, this also excludes their ALCS MVP Andrew effing Miller who was also brought in by new management.

Now, Cleveland had Lindor and Kluber due to shats but most teams have some good players. But as we know, you don't win with a couple of good players whom you have under extended control, even if it is 42 years of control. Otherwise, the Mike Trout/Pujols Angels would have multiple rings by now.

Again, the cognitive dissonance and lack of objective analysis is staggering. I am amazed so many people have drunk the shat Kool-aid.

The pickups were not impact players,as Schad mentioned, they were round offs to make a good young roster better. Shapiro tried rounding off the team that AA built , but we didn't have a team good enough for that obviously and here we are necessarily rebuilding while Cleveland is still good. Please stop.

The Angels would have been better off giving up on Pujols years ago and surrounding him(Trout) with other young talent.

[BigLeagueChew]

Just read the Cowgill part.

[vaff87]

Ask anyone on that team, and they'll tell you that Cowgill getting that single before being stranded, in a random April game against the Mets, was the pivotal moment in their season.

Bautista bat flip, Joe Carter in ‘93, Bill Mazeroski in 1960, Dave Roberts stealing 2B vs the Yankees in 2004, Carlton Fisk in 1975, Kirk Gibson in 1988, Roy Halladay no hitter in 2010, Magglio Ordonez in 2006, Collin Cowgill off Jim Henderson in 2016, ALL iconic moments in baseball history.

[ratul]

We are talking about the division title. But we can do it your way.

The 2016 ALCS; Cleveland Indians had three players out their starting nine (Napoli, Naquin and Crisp/Davis) who were not on the team in 2015. Yes, that includes their home run and RBI leader (Napoli) which is kind of important given the Indians were 18th in offense in 2015 and 5th in 2016. Also excludes Rajai Davis who was their stolen base leader. And of course, this excludes probably their most important player - ALCS MVP Andrew Miller. Maybe vets do matter? But, you can't control those pesky vets can you?

By comparision, the 2016 ALCS Blue Jays had ZERO new players in their starting lineup for the ALCS compared to their 2015 team.

No one argues that Shats was responsible for the blue jays 2016 team. The best-case scenario for Shats in winning a division title is not actually that he won one but that he was sort of involved in the 2016 indians team when of course, he wasn't there anyway.

It is about building a complete team - full of a good mix of young guys and vets. Shats doesn't get this - it's about control- and that's why has never gotten over the hump and hasn't won a division title in 11 years - and counting.

[Tanner]

Shapiro was the Indians GM through the 2010 season (he became team president after that). Which means he was the GM when the following players from the 2016 team were acquired:

Kluber (trade)
Carrasco (trade)
Tomlin (drafted)
Salazar (int'l FA)

Kipnis (draft)
Ramirez (int'l signing)
Brantley (trade)
Santana (trade)
Chisenhall (draft)

I mean, that's a pretty decent chunk of the roster still there five seasons after he was no longer the GM. That was 80% of their rotation!

I actually see a lot of parallels between the way the Indians were built and the way the Jays are being built now, except hopefully the Jays can be a top 10 payroll team and actually add free agents/keep their young talent.

[Schad]

We are talking about the division title. But we can do it your way.

The 2016 ALCS; Cleveland Indians had three players out their starting nine (Napoli, Naquin and Crisp/Davis) who were not on the team in 2015. Yes, that includes their home run and RBI leader (Napoli) which is kind of important given the Indians were 18th in offense in 2015 and 5th in 2016. Also excludes Rajai Davis who was their stolen base leader. And of course, this excludes probably their most important player - ALCS MVP Andrew Miller. Maybe vets do matter? But, you can't control those pesky vets can you?

By comparision, the 2016 ALCS Blue Jays had ZERO new players in their starting lineup for the ALCS compared to their 2015 team.

No one argues that Shats was responsible for the blue jays 2016 team. The best-case scenario for Shats in winning a division title is not actually that he won one but that he was sort of involved in the 2016 indians team when of course, he wasn't there anyway.

It is about building a complete team - full of a good mix of young guys and vets. Shats doesn't get this - it's about control- and that's why has never gotten over the hump and hasn't won a division title in 11 years - and counting.

The 2015 team had vets, too. That was a large part of the issue: they had injuries, and their 'good vets' fell off a cliff. Just as many of our quality vets have fallen off a cliff post-2016. That's the reality of baseball these days...old guys go from solid to out of the league in an awful hurry. Heck, look at Napoli and Davis: 2016 was the last decent season for either of them. Younger players are far, far more reliable these days.

[Skin Blues]

Don't feed the trolls... it's hard, but restrain yourselves.

[ratul]

Shapiro was the Indians GM through the 2010 season (he became team president after that). Which means he was the GM when the following players from the 2016 team were acquired:

Kluber (trade)
Carrasco (trade)
Tomlin (drafted)
Salazar (int'l FA)

Kipnis (draft)
Ramirez (int'l signing)
Brantley (trade)
Santana (trade)
Chisenhall (draft)

I mean, that's a pretty decent chunk of the roster still there five seasons after he was no longer the GM. That was 80% of their rotation!

I actually see a lot of parallels between the way the Indians were built and the way the Jays are being built now, except hopefully the Jays can be a top 10 payroll team and actually add free agents/keep their young talent.

I would broadly agree with this (you missed Lindor as well) except Shats has also traded the following players:
Cliff Lee (Cy Young)
CC Sabathia (Cy Young)
Chris Archer (All-Star)
Marcus Stroman (All-star)
Aaron Sanchez (All-star)
Roberto Alomar (HOF)
Josh Donaldson (All-star)

He has made the following free agent signings:
Kerry Wood (20mn)
Paul Byrd (14mn)
Nick Swisher (56mn)
Michael Bourn (48mn)
Randall Grichuk (55mn)

He also had/let the following players walk:
Jim Thome (HOF)
Kenny Lofton (HOF)
Juan Gonzalez (All-Star)
Edwin Encarnacion (All-star)

There is a pattern. Shats trades 'old' for young; vets for control. Fan favourites for youth. He seems to be able to garner young talent yet can't build around the talent and then blows it up when it doesn't translate into anything. This is while attendance falters as fan favourites get perennially traded for more control. I am certain he would have traded Lindor had he had the chance. Again, prob the reason why he hasn't won a division title in 11 years.

[SharoneWright]

Trades young for old; vets for control.

The board should let that sink in.

[Schad]

I would broadly agree with this (you missed Lindor as well) except Shats has also traded the following players:
Cliff Lee (Cy Young)
CC Sabathia (Cy Young)
Chris Archer (All-Star)
Marcus Stroman (All-star)
Aaron Sanchez (All-star)
Roberto Alomar (HOF)
Josh Donaldson (All-star)

The Lee and Sabathia trades brought back Carlos Carrasco and Michael Brantley. Given that they couldn't afford to keep either, because they had payroll constraints (and GMs don't control payroll), those were fantastic deals. You're also missing the Colon for Sizemore/Phillips/Lee deal, which was spectacular.

As was the Alomar deal. Even though the prospects failed, they moved him at exactly the right time: Robbie sure as hell didn't play like a Hall of Famer as a Met. To be perfectly blunt, he was bad and making a tonne of money, so even getting nothing for him was a win, because it allowed them to spend their limited resources elsewhere.

Archer's a weird inclusion, because he's exactly the opposite of what you're arguing: traded as a prospect for a veteran, because they were expecting to be playoff contenders in 2009 (that, uh, didn't quite happen). A terrible trade, but cuts completely against the idea that Shapiro has some sort of fixation on youth.

Also, Aaron Sanchez doesn't belong anywhere near this conversation. Overall, you have a fixation on past performance rather than actual current value; making an All-Star appearance does not make you a star in perpetuity.

He has made the following free agent signings:
Kerry Wood (20mn)
Paul Byrd (14mn)
Nick Swisher (56mn)
Michael Bourn (48mn)
Randall Grichuk (55mn)

Here's where this post gets weird. You tut-tut Shapiro for being too fixated on cheap young players...and then go after his free agent signings. Swisher, Wood and Bourn were all recent All-Stars. Those are the sort of established, accomplished vets you like!

It's almost as if spending lavishly on older players is not actually a panacea.

He also had/let the following players walk:
Jim Thome (HOF)
Kenny Lofton (HOF)
Juan Gonzalez (All-Star)
Edwin Encarnacion (All-star)

Thome was asking for money they couldn't afford. Juan Gonzalez was a shade of his former self in Texas, and a terrible contract. Encarnacion hasn't been worth his money to date. The only one that looks bad in retrospect is Lofton, who bounced back at age 35 (in an era where people did that).

There is a pattern. Shats trades 'old' for young; vets for control. Fan favourites for youth. He seems to be able to garner young talent yet can't build around the talent and then blows it up when it doesn't translate into anything. This is while attendance falters as fan favourites get perennially traded for more control. I am certain he would have traded Lindor had he had the chance. Again, prob the reason why he hasn't won a division title in 11 years.

The pattern in Cleveland was that he had a limited payroll and couldn't afford to pay the exorbitant contracts that proliferated in that era. Tampa Bay's management does exactly the same thing, though they do it better than anyone in baseball. That's how small market teams compete.

And the reason why Cleveland has had a period of sustained success is that, going back several years ago, they managed to nail down a bunch of their players to (below-market) extensions to prolong their time with the club, rather than face down the likelihood of having to trade them. It was excellent asset management.

[Black Watch]

Don't feed the trolls... it's hard, but restrain yourselves.

Shut up and stop ruining it for the rest of us.