#19 - GOAT peaks project (2019)

[70sFan]

No way, not in his pistons days. I'm talking pistons dantley here. Lebron is 10X more athletic 10X stronger 10X better driver 10X better ball handler, it's not even close.

Many players were far more athletic, stronger and better ball handlers. None of them was as good as Dantley in isolation.

Listen, James is far better offensive player. Tiers above Dantley. AD made his whole career from is iso skills. He didn't do many other things well, but in that aspect he was untouchable. I'd pick very, very few players to even start debate about it and James is not one of them.

Dantley was small, quite slow and had low vertical. It didn't matter, he made everyone look completely foolish. If you watched Dantley against Bird, then you likely watched my videos. Dantley did the same against McHale, who was absolutely elite man defender. He did the same to Pippen as an old man when he played in Dallas.

Yeah, AD was past his best in Detroit, but his isolation skills didn't decline that much.

But you still agree Kawhi is going to do massively better than Bird right? Bird got embarrassed while Kawhi would hold his own. Dantley may be one of the better iso scorers ever but Kawhi is also one of the better iso defenders ever. I just don't see Dantley getting the best of Kawhi in a 1 on 1 matchup, Kawhi is pretty much the #1 guy ever on who I would want on an iso scorer. Pippen is great man to man but his main strength was help defense.

He's much better man defender than Bird, but I'm not sure if the results would be much different. Kawhi could have success in a few possessions, but I doubt he would slow him down at all. Certainly not in isolation situations.

[cecilthesheep]

I think +0.1 is mediocre, but like I said his 2011 season was horrible. I think in a 08-10 sample he'd be a strong positive (for a G) if we had the numbers.

And a good example of Kobe shutting someone down came in his old age after Kyrie Irving challenged him:

Watch on YouTube

He guarded him quite a few times in the 2013 season and yes it's young Kyrie but he was already one of the top iso players in the league (top 5 and still good enough to pull off that shot at 3:14) and he couldn't beat old man Kobe without a pick.

I'd say this goes back to how meaningless single-season RAPM can be - why would his defense suddenly fall off a cliff in 2011? The team was good and he wasn't hurt. I think it's much more likely that 2011 shows the randomness of the stat, and including it in the sample gets us closer to whatever the true center is.

Kobe and Kyrie played each other twice in the 12-13 season and once in 11-12. Kyrie's numbers in those games: 26/52 from the field, 7/12 from three, 5/6 from the line, 64 points, 22 assists, 11 turnovers, 1:40:22 of playing time. Normalized to per 36 minutes and compared to Kyrie's per-36 averages over that time:

against Kobe: 23.0p / 7.9a / 3.9t / 58.6% TS
Overall: 22.7p / 6.2a / 3.5t / 55.9% TS

I don't think it matters if he needs a pick when he can get a pick any time he wants, clearly enough to maintain his production and even get a little better. Most small point guards need picks to be consistently effective.

This isn't to say the highlight video is meaningless, but I think Kobe in particular is exactly the kind of defensive player who highlight videos will overrate, given his inconsistent possession-to-possession effort and focus off the ball. When I say I like to evaluate by watching film I mean I'm a freak who goes back and wastes hours watching whole games lol

[cecilthesheep]

Many players were far more athletic, stronger and better ball handlers. None of them was as good as Dantley in isolation.

Listen, James is far better offensive player. Tiers above Dantley. AD made his whole career from is iso skills. He didn't do many other things well, but in that aspect he was untouchable. I'd pick very, very few players to even start debate about it and James is not one of them.

Dantley was small, quite slow and had low vertical. It didn't matter, he made everyone look completely foolish. If you watched Dantley against Bird, then you likely watched my videos. Dantley did the same against McHale, who was absolutely elite man defender. He did the same to Pippen as an old man when he played in Dallas.

Yeah, AD was past his best in Detroit, but his isolation skills didn't decline that much.

But you still agree Kawhi is going to do massively better than Bird right? Bird got embarrassed while Kawhi would hold his own. Dantley may be one of the better iso scorers ever but Kawhi is also one of the better iso defenders ever. I just don't see Dantley getting the best of Kawhi in a 1 on 1 matchup, Kawhi is pretty much the #1 guy ever on who I would want on an iso scorer. Pippen is great man to man but his main strength was help defense.

He's much better man defender than Bird, but I'm not sure if the results would be much different. Kawhi could have success in a few possessions, but I doubt he would slow him down at all. Certainly not in isolation situations.

Kawhi at his peak slowed down Durant and Melo in iso situations, he didn't completely take them out of the game but he certainly affected what they were doing. i don't see what Dantley has in his bag that's going to make Kawhi ineffectual.

[E-Balla]

I'd say this goes back to how meaningless single-season RAPM can be - why would his defense suddenly fall off a cliff in 2011? The team was good and he wasn't hurt. I think it's much more likely that 2011 shows the randomness of the stat, and including it in the sample gets us closer to whatever the true center is.

No because we all can remember what we saw real time, and real time it was obvious the wear and tear of 3 straight finals runs were getting to Kobe and he wasn't playing nearly as hard defensively. It's not chance, if anything the fact it went down shows it isn't chance because it accurately reflected his lack of defensive effort.

Kobe and Kyrie played each other twice in the 12-13 season and once in 11-12. Kyrie's numbers in those games: 26/52 from the field, 7/12 from three, 5/6 from the line, 64 points, 22 assists, 11 turnovers, 1:40:22 of playing time. Normalized to per 36 minutes and compared to Kyrie's per-36 averages over that time:

against Kobe: 23.0p / 7.9a / 3.9t / 58.6% TS
Overall: 22.7p / 6.2a / 3.5t / 55.9% TS

I don't think it matters if he needs a pick when he can get a pick any time he wants, clearly enough to maintain his production and even get a little better. Most small point guards need picks to be consistently effective.

Yeah this is just a super mistaken analysis. I posted that video because it shows possessions from the second time they played in 2013. Prior to that when the Lakers played Cleveland he was guarded by Fisher and ripping him to shreds. Kobe only went up against him that game because Kyrie challenged him, not because that's the normal Lakers scheme, especially in 2013 when Kobe barely played defense most nights and was a bottom 2 defensive G overall that season.

These are the type of small things you can't get through statistical analysis but one game of Kobe locking him down at an old age should be enough. It's the most recent example I can remember of Kobe locking in, that's for sure.

[cecilthesheep]

one game of Kobe locking him down at an old age should be enough.

Yeah, this is where we disagree. I don't think one game from 2013 shows hardly anything at all about what Kobe's defense was like in 2008-2009 as a whole. There could be any number of other things going on with Kyrie that depressed his scoring a touch that night (he was still efficient, got assists, didn't turn the ball over a ton, etc.)

[E-Balla]

one game of Kobe locking him down at an old age should be enough.

Yeah, this is where we disagree. I don't think one game from 2013 shows hardly anything at all about what Kobe's defense was like in 2008-2009 as a whole. There could be any number of other things going on with Kyrie that depressed his scoring a touch that night (he was still efficient, got assists, didn't turn the ball over a ton, etc.)

You asked for an example I was saying it should be enough to show he could do it with a tangible example.

And those are all the plays with Kobe guarding Kyrie from that game in that video. There isn't any number of things, you can see clearly Kobe was locking him down.

[70sFan]

But you still agree Kawhi is going to do massively better than Bird right? Bird got embarrassed while Kawhi would hold his own. Dantley may be one of the better iso scorers ever but Kawhi is also one of the better iso defenders ever. I just don't see Dantley getting the best of Kawhi in a 1 on 1 matchup, Kawhi is pretty much the #1 guy ever on who I would want on an iso scorer. Pippen is great man to man but his main strength was help defense.

He's much better man defender than Bird, but I'm not sure if the results would be much different. Kawhi could have success in a few possessions, but I doubt he would slow him down at all. Certainly not in isolation situations.

Kawhi at his peak slowed down Durant and Melo in iso situations, he didn't completely take them out of the game but he certainly affected what they were doing. i don't see what Dantley has in his bag that's going to make Kawhi ineffectual.

Kawhi actually struggled against Durant in 2016 playoffs. I don't want to say that as I like Kawhi and I was Spurs fan at that time but that's the truth.

Dantley was much different opponent to face than Durant or Melo. He didn't rely on his jumpshot, he did everything to get fouled and he had deadly post game that couldn't be stopped by 7 footers. On top of that, his midrange game was phenomenal and he had dozens of fakes and little tricks to lure defenders. He's not the most athletic player to say the least and he's quite small, so many defenders weren't concerned with his drives and post ups but then they had to sat on the bench with 3 fouls in 4 possessions. Dantley was also a master of positioning, he could get good position against much bigger and stronger players, another way to draw fouls. The of course you have his famous pump fake and good luck trying to stop him!

I wonder if many of you even watched Dantley games. In the Pistons (with excellent team around him) when he was past his prime teams didn't even gave him chances to play one on one. The most efficient way to stop Dantley was to double him and force him to pass out. I don't mean typical help defense, Dantley got doubled as quickly as he got the ball on the wing or in the post. His weakness is that he didn't like chaos and that sometimes slowed down his team offense, but as a pure scorer that's all you could have done against him. I wouldn't be surpirsed if he was doubled more times than peak Shaq. Because teams couldn't give him space to play one on one.

Durant and Melo are both excellent iso scorers, but I've never seen something like that with them. Maybe because we have better spacing today, but that would only help Dantley to do his things. Kawhi with a lot of help would definitely slow him down, because Dantley wasn't as agressive or explosive like Jordan for example. But straight one on one? I don't buy that, sorry.

[cecilthesheep]

I'd say this goes back to how meaningless single-season RAPM can be - why would his defense suddenly fall off a cliff in 2011? The team was good and he wasn't hurt. I think it's much more likely that 2011 shows the randomness of the stat, and including it in the sample gets us closer to whatever the true center is.

No because we all can remember what we saw real time, and real time it was obvious the wear and tear of 3 straight finals runs were getting to Kobe and he wasn't playing nearly as hard defensively. It's not chance, if anything the fact it went down shows it isn't chance because it accurately reflected his lack of defensive effort.

The gist of what the article I cited says is that the margin for error in single-season RAPM is bigger than the result itself most of the time, practically as big as Kobe's entire fluctuation between '10 and '11. That is very much random. Even if we say it's not random, though, Kobe is at what, 0.5 and 0.4 in '08 and '09? I still think that's mediocre. We have one year above +1 in 2010. Basically the only way he comes through as an outstanding defender is if you take that year as the truly representative one.

[cecilthesheep]

one game of Kobe locking him down at an old age should be enough.

Yeah, this is where we disagree. I don't think one game from 2013 shows hardly anything at all about what Kobe's defense was like in 2008-2009 as a whole. There could be any number of other things going on with Kyrie that depressed his scoring a touch that night (he was still efficient, got assists, didn't turn the ball over a ton, etc.)

You asked for an example I was saying it should be enough to show he could do it with a tangible example.

And those are all the plays with Kobe guarding Kyrie from that game in that video. There isn't any number of things, you can see clearly Kobe was locking him down.

it's a highlight video. I've explained why I don't think I can see anything clearly from those.

It's also one game from 2013, and maybe he really was for some reason great in that, but I've never disputed his ability to rise to the moment. My question was in response to what you said about Kobe consistently diminishing opposing guards' production during his prime from 08-10 as a piece of supporting evidence for him being an impact-level defender during that time.

[cecilthesheep]

He's much better man defender than Bird, but I'm not sure if the results would be much different. Kawhi could have success in a few possessions, but I doubt he would slow him down at all. Certainly not in isolation situations.

Kawhi at his peak slowed down Durant and Melo in iso situations, he didn't completely take them out of the game but he certainly affected what they were doing. i don't see what Dantley has in his bag that's going to make Kawhi ineffectual.

Kawhi actually struggled against Durant in 2016 playoffs. I don't want to say that as I like Kawhi and I was Spurs fan at that time but that's the truth.

Did he? Here's 2016 Durant's per 36 numbers, from the Spurs series vs the regular season:

Spurs series: 25.1p / 5.9r / 3.5a / 3.3t / 60.2% TS
Regular season: 28.3p / 8.2r / 5.0a / 3.5t / 63.4% TS

Durant did great in that Spurs series, I watched it too, but I think Kawhi definitely slowed him down. Didn't stop him, but changed what he was doing for sure. (We also spent a lot of time back then with Kawhi on Westbrook and Danny Green on Durant, so Danny may deserve some of the credit too.)

Dantley was much different opponent to face than Durant or Melo. He didn't rely on his jumpshot, he did everything to get fouled and he had deadly post game that couldn't be stopped by 7 footers. On top of that, his midrange game was phenomenal and he had dozens of fakes and little tricks to lure defenders. He's not the most athletic player to say the least and he's quite small, so many defenders weren't concerned with his drives and post ups but then they had to sat on the bench with 3 fouls in 4 possessions. Dantley was also a master of positioning, he could get good position against much bigger and stronger players, another way to draw fouls. The of course you have his famous pump fake and good luck trying to stop him!

I wonder if many of you even watched Dantley games. In the Pistons (with excellent team around him) when he was past his prime teams didn't even gave him chances to play one on one. The most efficient way to stop Dantley was to double him and force him to pass out. I don't mean typical help defense, Dantley got doubled as quickly as he got the ball on the wing or in the post. His weakness is that he didn't like chaos and that sometimes slowed down his team offense, but as a pure scorer that's all you could have done against him. I wouldn't be surpirsed if he was doubled more times than peak Shaq. Because teams couldn't give him space to play one on one.

Durant and Melo are both excellent iso scorers, but I've never seen something like that with them. Maybe because we have better spacing today, but that would only help Dantley to do his things. Kawhi with a lot of help would definitely slow him down, because Dantley wasn't as agressive or explosive like Jordan for example. But straight one on one? I don't buy that, sorry.

I see what you're saying here, and you're right that I haven't extensively watched Dantley to evaluate him. I just don't see why the best defender of his era would have zero effect on anything Dantley did - I'm not saying he'd be stopped, I just think it would be a lot harder and he'd be less efficient if he had to go against Kawhi.

[Clyde Frazier]

Is this ranking purely just regular season? Robinson's 22 PER and 53% TS is really better than 2017 Leonard?

Leonard should at the very least be in KG's spot and KG should be in Robinson's spot. Some bias going around here, oh well to each its own. Bump this list in 7 years when Kawhi is a top 5 GOAT and it will look rather silly, I'm just warning you guys.

Your Kawhi stanning is impressive, I must say.

[freethedevil]

one game of Kobe locking him down at an old age should be enough.

Yeah, this is where we disagree. I don't think one game from 2013 shows hardly anything at all about what Kobe's defense was like in 2008-2009 as a whole. There could be any number of other things going on with Kyrie that depressed his scoring a touch that night (he was still efficient, got assists, didn't turn the ball over a ton, etc.)

Yeah, single matchup ina single game proves literally nothing.

[Narigo]

Lets see

1. 2014 Durant- Might go with with 2013 here. His 2013 is slightly worse than his 2014 season but better in the playoffs

2.2006 Nowitzki- i like this year''s Dirk more than the others. Underrated passer and ball handler. I seen this version of Dirk run the pick and roll as the the ball handler for stretches at a time and was quite successful at it. Even though he was a better post player in his later years, he was very good post player in 06. Also he was better defender and rebounder as well. His 2006 postseason is arguably better than his 2011. He Lost in the finals because of Wade going off and Avery poor coaching in deciding in doubling Shaq instead of Wade

3. 2003 McGrady - Great year, alost upeset the Pistons in the first round. Led a crappy Magic team to the playoffs. His 01 to 03 seasons were at par or better than 01-03 seasons. Unforunately, injuries derailed his career. But I dont consider his 03 season to be outlier because how good his 01 and 02 seasons were

[HBK_Kliq_33]

He's much better man defender than Bird, but I'm not sure if the results would be much different. Kawhi could have success in a few possessions, but I doubt he would slow him down at all. Certainly not in isolation situations.

Kawhi at his peak slowed down Durant and Melo in iso situations, he didn't completely take them out of the game but he certainly affected what they were doing. i don't see what Dantley has in his bag that's going to make Kawhi ineffectual.

Kawhi actually struggled against Durant in 2016 playoffs. I don't want to say that as I like Kawhi and I was Spurs fan at that time but that's the truth.

Dantley was much different opponent to face than Durant or Melo. He didn't rely on his jumpshot, he did everything to get fouled and he had deadly post game that couldn't be stopped by 7 footers. On top of that, his midrange game was phenomenal and he had dozens of fakes and little tricks to lure defenders. He's not the most athletic player to say the least and he's quite small, so many defenders weren't concerned with his drives and post ups but then they had to sat on the bench with 3 fouls in 4 possessions. Dantley was also a master of positioning, he could get good position against much bigger and stronger players, another way to draw fouls. The of course you have his famous pump fake and good luck trying to stop him!

I wonder if many of you even watched Dantley games. In the Pistons (with excellent team around him) when he was past his prime teams didn't even gave him chances to play one on one. The most efficient way to stop Dantley was to double him and force him to pass out. I don't mean typical help defense, Dantley got doubled as quickly as he got the ball on the wing or in the post. His weakness is that he didn't like chaos and that sometimes slowed down his team offense, but as a pure scorer that's all you could have done against him. I wouldn't be surpirsed if he was doubled more times than peak Shaq. Because teams couldn't give him space to play one on one.

Durant and Melo are both excellent iso scorers, but I've never seen something like that with them. Maybe because we have better spacing today, but that would only help Dantley to do his things. Kawhi with a lot of help would definitely slow him down, because Dantley wasn't as agressive or explosive like Jordan for example. But straight one on one? I don't buy that, sorry.

Danny Green was guarding Kevin Durant mostly in 2016 playoffs if I recall. I get it, Dantley's game is based off 1 on 1 play. You are taking it way too far calling Dantley a better 1 on 1 scorer than a guy like Durant though. Durant is 7 foot tall a lights out shooter and has ball handling- athleticism of a guard.

If I had to compare Dantley to a modern day player, I would say he's like a Lou Williams level player. You are overrating him like he's this unstoppable 1 on 1 force that Kawhi wouldn't be able to lock down in a playoff series easily.

[HBK_Kliq_33]

Is this ranking purely just regular season? Robinson's 22 PER and 53% TS is really better than 2017 Leonard?

Leonard should at the very least be in KG's spot and KG should be in Robinson's spot. Some bias going around here, oh well to each its own. Bump this list in 7 years when Kawhi is a top 5 GOAT and it will look rather silly, I'm just warning you guys.

Your Kawhi stanning is impressive, I must say.

You guys just have your alltime great list so locked in your head that you refuse to change it regardless of what a player does, consider it being stubborn. How many guys averaged 30\9 on 62% TS and won a ring? or had a 31 PER on 67% TS like 2017? I guess it's just part of underrating certain players that are still playing.

[liamliam1234]

You guys just have your alltime great list so locked in your head that you refuse to change it regardless of what a player does, consider it being stubborn.

You mean had two great playoff runs? Man, yeah, tough to believe that profile does not crack most people’s top twenty.

How many guys averaged 30\9 on 62% TS and won a ring? or had a 31 PER on 67% TS

Well, that settles it. That is the sole standard. No one else can claim a unique statline in playoff runs. Bravo.

I guess it's just part of underrating certain players that are still playing.

It is part of not becoming enraptured over a couple of good years. Acting as he is anywhere reasonably near the top five is one of the most egregious instances of overrating a player I have ever seen. In a peaks project at least you can make some case, but you have to keep in mind that most are not as deluded over Kawhi’s achievements as you are.

[HBK_Kliq_33]

You guys just have your alltime great list so locked in your head that you refuse to change it regardless of what a player does, consider it being stubborn.

You mean had two great playoff runs? Man, yeah, tough to believe that profile does not crack most people’s top twenty.

How many guys averaged 30\9 on 62% TS and won a ring? or had a 31 PER on 67% TS

Well, that settles it. That is the sole standard. No one else can claim a unique statline in playoff runs. Bravo.

I guess it's just part of underrating certain players that are still playing.

It is part of not becoming enraptured over a couple of good years. Acting as he is anywhere reasonably near the top five is one of the most egregious instances of overrating a player I have ever seen. In a peaks project at least you can make some case, but you have to keep in mind that most are not as deluded over Kawhi’s achievements as you are.

This is peaks we are talking about here, bill walton is on the list. Kawhi's last two playoff runs he has done something that only somebody like a Michael Jordan does.

[cecilthesheep]

Durant and Melo are both excellent iso scorers, but I've never seen something like that with them. Maybe because we have better spacing today, but that would only help Dantley to do his things. Kawhi with a lot of help would definitely slow him down, because Dantley wasn't as agressive or explosive like Jordan for example. But straight one on one? I don't buy that, sorry.

If I had to compare Dantley to a modern day player, I would say he's like a Lou Williams level player. You are overrating him like he's this unstoppable 1 on 1 force that Kawhi wouldn't be able to lock down in a playoff series easily.

Before people jump all over this, I want to point out that once you adjust for pace their scoring numbers are actually fairly similar. Dantley's career per-100 average is only 2.4 higher than Lou's, and Lou's scoring per 100 last year beats all but two Dantley seasons.

[E-Balla]

Yeah, this is where we disagree. I don't think one game from 2013 shows hardly anything at all about what Kobe's defense was like in 2008-2009 as a whole. There could be any number of other things going on with Kyrie that depressed his scoring a touch that night (he was still efficient, got assists, didn't turn the ball over a ton, etc.)

You asked for an example I was saying it should be enough to show he could do it with a tangible example.

And those are all the plays with Kobe guarding Kyrie from that game in that video. There isn't any number of things, you can see clearly Kobe was locking him down.

it's a highlight video. I've explained why I don't think I can see anything clearly from those.

It's also one game from 2013, and maybe he really was for some reason great in that, but I've never disputed his ability to rise to the moment. My question was in response to what you said about Kobe consistently diminishing opposing guards' production during his prime from 08-10 as a piece of supporting evidence for him being an impact-level defender during that time.

Whoa this was never said. Kobe was always more of a help defender and best when playing like a safety. He never was particularly good at keeping guys in front of him. The 2010 Finals is a great example. They put him on Rondo and he was a headache defensively for Boston all series long.

[liamliam1234]

This is peaks we are talking about here, bill walton is on the list. Kawhi's last two playoff runs he has done something that only somebody like a Michael Jordan does.

Nope, only Lebron was in the ballpark of the two different statistical specifications you mentioned. 2018 roughly equating to Kawhi’s 2019, and 2014 roughly equating to Kawhi’s 2017.