Biggest surprise bust ever?

[Plossum]

Fultz, wiggins, Beasley and Mayo are good calls.

[HotelVitale]

It's legitimately hard for me to think of any players who I was totally surprised busted. I think I assume success a lot less than most and see making it in the NBA as an extremely hard thing to do that mostly has to do with the unpredictable and intangible ability to adapt to NBA spacing and timing. The difference between a surprise success like Malcolm Brogdon and a disappointment like Ben McLemore comes down to split second decision-making and doing very difficult motor skill stuff at a very fast and specific particular pace; it's less about their pure basic skill abilities (McLemore can shoot and finish at an extremely high level, for example) and more about something mental-kinesthetic that allows them to learn and develop things in a sort of primal, reactive way. Top prospects have much more cushion because they have physical attributes or skills that are already above average for the league that they don't have to be as perfect with other stuff, but even then almost any top-5 player can still fail if they're not doing what they do well with near perfect timing, and having all sorts of other micro-skills working extremely perfectly. Apart from a rare prospect like Zion or Ben Simmons or AD--whose pure size and abilities basically guarantee them at least basic success--other guys really do have to earn a spot and it's tough.

That said, there have been some players who I thought had something special that just didn't. Terrance Williams was someone who I thought was a slept-on stud with all the tools necessary to be a star (sort of like Donovan Mitchell). Cameron Payne seemed like a possible steal to me too. Shane Larkin got me. Even then, I'm not shocked those guys didn't make it, just instances where my own gut or intuition wasn't onto anything.

[Vibranium]

Does Michael Carter Williams count?

[HotelVitale]

Fultz, wiggins, Beasley and Mayo are good calls.

Not to be a broken record but it shouldn't have surprised anyone that the last 3 guys weren't able to be diverse or efficient enough to be stars in the league. People that liked them as prospects had every reason to think they COULD be efficient and develop enough peripheral skills to thrive as a score-first wing--they were all good prospects--but it seems well within the standard draft margin of error for those guys to have turned out like they did. Wiggins never had a NBA handle or a brilliant shot in college, none of Mayo's size/athleticism/shot were special, and Beasley's stroke was never pure enough to mean success on its own; we all knew that but those 3 also all had some very good attributes and were very good gambles. Not sure how exactly anyone could be disappointed that Beasley could manage 43/34 splits on his shooting but not the 50/40 ones that would've made him a very good player--that's a small margin and no one could've ever known how to predict where he'd land on that spectrum. It's literally a matter of an inch or two on 3 shots per game, all while playing against monstrous athletes at a very fast and jerky pace. And Wiggins not being able to learn how to drive and finish around, over, and through guys isn't weird--those things are hard as f to do at a high NBA level, and no one should have expected him to do so. He's used his athletic tools to score 20ppg a few times, but like with Beas no one could've known exactly how well he'd shoot or what his other supplementary skills would look like in NBA games.

[BroncoBuck]

Greg oden. Now I know I'm gonna get hit with "well he was injured", but still. Nonetheless he was projected to be Bill Russell, and instead was in the league for a cup of coffee.

I don’t like classifying the players who had major injuries as ‘busts’. You were likely right about his talent, I think Oden was a can’t miss prospect. He was extremely skilled and had a high bball IQ.

Jabari Parker and Evan Turner would be mine. I thought they were at minimum, further allstars. And I remember thinking that Sheldon Williams was the next Ben Wallace.

He might have recovered pretty well physically, but those two ACL tears destroyed Jabari mentally. He was putting up an efficient 20 per game the second time it went. I’ll never forget that game. Middleton’s first game back from his hamstring tear that he suffered in the summer. The Bucks had their big 3 for like 12 minutes that season…unbelievable

[Catchall]

Thought he'd be really good: Michael Beasley

Am now highly concerned: Josh Jackson

Honorable Mention: Archie Goodwin, Wesley Johnson

[RakimAbdulJabar]

For me a bust isn't simply a guy that doesn't meet expectations, but someone so far off you wouldn't bet they were going to be that bad compared to what you expected.

The 1st guy that comes to mind is Beasley, I was 100% for the Rose pick but in the back of my mind I figured if the Bulls messed it up and took Beasley they'd still be getting a beast of a player, boy was I wrong

[Scuall]

Stauskas. I thought he was goona be a fringe all star.

Nick rocks.

[Coach Carter]

okafor

[gorz]

Lou Williams obviously not a bust by any means but I thought he would be a superstar coming into the league..sort of a hybrid dennis smith jr/AI.

Michael Beasley..dominant @ kansas state thought it was just an afterthought he would at the very least be an all star caliber player.

[Ryoga Hibiki]

Of the ones I followed the development personally, the top3 are Darko, Eddy Curry and Andrea Bargnani.
All of them were very legit, sky is the limit, talents. And they even showed flashes during their career.
Just they were not mentally ready and their ball IQ was not properly assessed..


Sent from my Nokia 3210 using RealGM mobile app

[RxMidnight]

Not that anyone expected him to be a star, but I was surprised Jimmer Fredette couldn't even stay in the league as a rotational player. His defensive deficiencies were predictable, but I'd have thought he'd be a good offensive fit in today's 3 point happy game.

[ellobo]

A guy I really expected to be a star and turned out to be a complete bust is Bo Kimble.

Senior year in college (certainly inflated by Loyola-Marymount's style of play, but still):
35.3ppg
53% from the field
46% 3pt% on 6.3 attempts per game
86% from the line on 8.4 attempts per game
63.5 TS%
7.7 rebounds per game

Drafted 8th overall.
Lasted 3 years in the league. Averaged 5.5ppg on 38.6% shooting and 29% from 3.

[Bum Adebayo]

Spanoulis

[gh123]

Lonzo

A bit early for that

I'd say a bit late. He came out as a very injury prone player.

[Ill News]

Andrew Wiggins and Jabari Parker had this insurmountable hype as the NBA's future prior to their draft, sort of like the next Lebron and Melo. Now they're universally hated by fans, so much so that teams trading for them would warrant some form of criticism.

Markelle Fultz was considered a sure thing, as the consensus #1 pick. I was crestfallen when Boston traded down to get the #3 pick because it meant missing a chance on Fultz. I'm glad Ainge isn't like most GMs and followed his gut, otherwise we would've been burdened with his enigmatic injury and the media circus that came with it.

[nurseryc]

Bruno Caboclo

U serious? He is just starting to put it all together.

[Stillwater]

i know its due to injury so he gets a pass but jabari parker is or was the least likely too of those that busted in recent memory.

[jove9]

Come on, guys. The conversation should start and possibly stop at Danny Ferry. Dude held out for a trade after being drafted, and once he did he sucked royally.

Honorable mention to Harold "Baby Jordan" Miner.

[e_l_f_o]

Oj Mayo