Wizards 2019 Offseason Thread - Part 2

[nuposse04]

That could be offset a little with how good Troy Brown is at rebounding. Them at the 3/4 should be be able to not be a net negative in that department in the long term.

[DCZards]

Funny how Rui has the size and strength to be a good rebounder but lacks the instincts. Brown, on the other hand, lacks the size and strength but has great rebounding instincts. I don't think Brown's solid rebounding from the wing position is going to make up for Rui's weakness as an interior rebounder.

Rui may never be a great rebounder but I expect him to get better with experience and coaching. As Nate points out, he has shown that he doesn't have any problem mixing it up in the paint.

[payitforward]

That could be offset a little with how good Troy Brown is at rebounding. Them at the 3/4 should be be able to not be a net negative in that department in the long term.

Great, except "not... net negative" isn't what we're looking for. We're looking for net positive. In rebounding as in scoring efficiency, etc.

For Rui to be an above average 4 in the league, he'll have to be above average in the total of his numbers. If he's below average in something he'll have to be above average in something else for the two together to leave him at "average."

No other player can do that for him. Period.

We were an above average offensive team last year. Our eFG% was above average. Our TS% was above average. Not only that, but we also got to take an above average number of shots per game. & an above average number of FT attempts as well.

As a result, we scored almost 3 more points per game than average. Wow. Only one problem: our opponents scored almost 6 more points per game than average against us.

The reason is pretty simple: our opponents out-rebounded us by almost 5 boards per game. You cannot shoot well enough to overcome that difference.

[gambitx777]

Chris levert just got 3 for 52.5

What does that mean for any hopes at keeping bertins this coming off-season if he plays well

[dckingsfan]

Do you know if they keep a boxout stat? What if someone is good at boxing out and it gets his teammates rebounds? What if - wild fun speculation, our samurai box out guy leads to Brown and Bryant getting a lot more rebounds? And yet what if Rui was still a below average rebounder? I wonder how those things even out?

[nate33]

Chris levert just got 3 for 52.5

What does that mean for any hopes at keeping bertins this coming off-season if he plays well

I don't think it means anything. Levert's contract is suppressed by his injury history. Also, he is taking a shorter deal at less money so that he can hit free agency sooner when he is eligible for a 30% max (rather than a 25% max). His situation has nothing to do with Bertans.

Ultimately, I don't think the Wizards have interest in resigning Bertans to anything longer than a 1-year deal. I think they are trying to maintain maximum flexibility in 2021. 2021 is the last year they could conceivably sign a max caliber free agent because after that, Brown and Bryant come off their cheap current contracts.

[Illmatic12]

Do you know if they keep a boxout stat? What if someone is good at boxing out and it gets his teammates rebounds? What if - wild fun speculation, our samurai box out guy leads to Brown and Bryant getting a lot more rebounds? And yet what if Rui was still a below average rebounder? I wonder how those things even out?

Wasn’t gonna jump in this, but here’s my observation: Hachimura isn’t a lazy rebounder ala Markieff Morris , rather I’ve noticed he tends to box out for others.

Seriously , watch him closely in this clip and you’ll see that every time a shot goes up he instinctively puts a body on his man (he’s got a streak of Nene in him, one of those guys who is constantly using strength to initiate contact and grabbing/pushing when the refs aren’t looking)

https://youtu.be/NsYMkpBuqtc

I don’t think anyone else on our roster does that. Love Thomas Bryant , but he never boxes anyone out and gets most of his rebounds due to wingspan. F Katz even noted the team wants him to work on it:

Wizards coaches considered him a hustle rebounder, not necessarily a team one, because of his struggles boxing out opponents’ more physical bigs. Bryant said his major goal going into the summer was to build lower-body and core strength. Let’s see if that happens.

If Rui can use his strength to clear out space and allow TB to go after the rebound, they could actually be an effective pairing in that way. Its possible that Rui could be one of those players like Nene who doesn’t compile individual rebounds, but TEAM rebounding goes up when he’s on the floor.

[nuposse04]

That could be offset a little with how good Troy Brown is at rebounding. Them at the 3/4 should be be able to not be a net negative in that department in the long term.

Great, except "not... net negative" isn't what we're looking for. We're looking for net positive. In rebounding as in scoring efficiency, etc.

For Rui to be an above average 4 in the league, he'll have to be above average in the total of his numbers. If he's below average in something he'll have to be above average in something else for the two together to leave him at "average."

No other player can do that for him. Period.

We were an above average offensive team last year. Our eFG% was above average. Our TS% was above average. Not only that, but we also got to take an above average number of shots per game. & an above average number of FT attempts as well.

As a result, we scored almost 3 more points per game than average. Wow. Only one problem: our opponents scored almost 6 more points per game than average against us.

The reason is pretty simple: our opponents out-rebounded us by almost 5 boards per game. You cannot shoot well enough to overcome that difference.

I'm hoping for baby steps first PIF

Jeff Green for all his offensive abilities last year really hurt on defense for the very reason you are mentioning, lack of rebounding. I am curious how many offensive rebounds we gave up last year relative to other teams. I don't care so much if our wings get offensive rebounds or not, but every single player needs to help on the defensive glass. What will hurt as well this season is replacing Sato's ability to help on the boards with IT and Ish... really hope the wings stop leaking out for fast-break opportunities and just focus on securing the possessions first. But i'm dubious since Brooks always seems to preach for them to get out on the break. If he could get them to run a competent half court offense maybe he wouldn't emphasize getting out on the break as much and harped more about their inability to protect the boards. :/

[payitforward]

That could be offset a little with how good Troy Brown is at rebounding. Them at the 3/4 should be be able to not be a net negative in that department in the long term.

Great, except "not... net negative" isn't what we're looking for. We're looking for net positive. In rebounding as in scoring efficiency, etc.

For Rui to be an above average 4 in the league, he'll have to be above average in the total of his numbers. If he's below average in something he'll have to be above average in something else for the two together to leave him at "average."

No other player can do that for him. Period.

We were an above average offensive team last year. Our eFG% was above average. Our TS% was above average. Not only that, but we also got to take an above average number of shots per game. & an above average number of FT attempts as well.

As a result, we scored almost 3 more points per game than average. Wow. Only one problem: our opponents scored almost 6 more points per game than average against us.

The reason is pretty simple: our opponents out-rebounded us by almost 5 boards per game. You cannot shoot well enough to overcome that difference.

I'm hoping for baby steps first PIF

Adding a below average rebounder is not a "baby step" -- not forward, at least.

...Jeff Green for all his offensive abilities last year really hurt on defense for the very reason you are mentioning, lack of rebounding.

Jeff Green is not a good player. He never has been. He averaged under 6 boards per 40 minutes last year -- as a 4 !!.

This year, we've replaced Jeff Green with Davis Bertans -- a very similar, but somewhat better, player (who is costing us 4+ times as much, however).

I am curious how many offensive rebounds we gave up last year relative to other teams.

We got 4.9 fewer boards per game than our opponents last year. 1.75 fewer on offense. 3.15 fewer on defense.

...I don't care so much if our wings get offensive rebounds or not, but every single player needs to help on the defensive glass. ...really hope the wings stop leaking out for fast-break opportunities and just focus on securing the possessions first...

I am not sure rebounding by wings specifically is the big issue. Overall, our 8 best rebounders last year played under 4000 minutes.

[WallToWall]

first preseason game is Oct 7th. When are the players supposed to report to facility to start preseason camp?

[payitforward]

The Wizards off-season began the morning after our season-ending loss to Boston on April 9. But, really... it began 3 days later when Ernie was fired.

There ensued a 2-plus month combination psycho-drama/soap-opera, in which our fearless leader Ted Leonsis (aided by the best minds money can rent) entered upon an uncompromised global search for the very best leader to reconstruct the Wizards culture & future along the lines of the best practices used anywhere in the world to achieve organizational excellence -- & wound up hiring the guy in the office 2 doors down from his.

At which point, Tommy took over, & emissions from the Wizards no longer reminded me of the repeated enunciations a few years back about how "we're gonna turn Yahoo around," a welcome change.

The first order of business was the draft; whether we did well or not we won't know for a while, but no one can say we weren't busy! We drafted 2 guys (Rui & Admiral), & then we signed 4 other post-draft rookie prospects the next day.

Only 2 of those 4 (Justin Robinson & Garrison Matthews) are still with us, but still... that's 4 new players in less than 24 hours. It felt like a miraculous new wind sweeping through the rafters of this moribund old house! Then, all the more amazing, a few days later we added 3 more players (Bonga, Jones & Wagner) from the Lakers! That's 7 new players in just over a week!

We followed that up in short order by letting every Wizard from last year not on a guaranteed contract leave! With 2 exceptions: Jordan McRae is under a non-guaranteed contract, & 3 days after the Lakers trade we re-signed Thomas Bryant for 3 years!

All right!! Then Tommy took a breath, celebrated the 4th of July, & come the following day he traded the corpse of Dwight Howard for the corpse of C.J. Miles. A lugubrious move? Perhaps, but welcome at least on one level, since it had been time for Howard to go from before Ernie signed him!

Ok, that was 8 new Wizards. (Or 8 1/2 -- if you count Bryant as half-new, seeing him in retrospect as Sheppard's first GM move, which makes pretty good sense.)

Then, to make the week after Independence Day a really busy one, Tommy traded for Davis Bertans (on 7/6) & inked both Ish Smith (7/9) & Isaiah Thomas (7/10) as well.

11 new Wizards in 3 weeks. Plus Thomas Bryant under contract. & we also picked up a couple of extra R2 picks along the way.

Since then... it's been quiet. & now training camp is only a few weeks ago. We have a full roster -- we're plus 1, in fact, with 16 guys under contract. Will there be another flurry of activity mirroring the 3 weeks from the draft onward? Hard to see that happening. Will something happen all the same? If so, what should it be?

Above all, how did we do? Did we have a good off-season? A disappointing one? What do you think?

[prime1time]

The Wizards off-season began the morning after our season-ending loss to Boston on April 9. But, really... it began 3 days later when Ernie was fired.

There ensued a 2-plus month combination psycho-drama/soap-opera, in which our fearless leader Ted Leonsis (aided by the best minds money can rent) entered upon an uncompromised global search for the very best leader to reconstruct the Wizards culture & future along the lines of the best practices used anywhere in the world to achieve organizational excellence -- & wound up hiring the guy in the office 2 doors down from his.

At which point, Tommy took over, & emissions from the Wizards no longer reminded me of the repeated enunciations a few years back about how "we're gonna turn Yahoo around," a welcome change.

The first order of business was the draft; whether we did well or not we won't know for a while, but no one can say we weren't busy! We drafted 2 guys (Rui & Admiral), & then we signed 4 other post-draft rookie prospects the next day.

Only 2 of those 4 (Justin Robinson & Garrison Matthews) are still with us, but still... that's 4 new players in less than 24 hours. It felt like a miraculous new wind sweeping through the rafters of this moribund old house! Then, all the more amazing, a few days later we added 3 more players (Bonga, Jones & Wagner) from the Lakers! That's 7 new players in just over a week!

We followed that up in short order by letting every Wizard from last year not on a guaranteed contract leave! With 2 exceptions: Jordan McRae is under a non-guaranteed contract, & 3 days after the Lakers trade we re-signed Thomas Bryant for 3 years!

All right!! Then Tommy took a breath, celebrated the 4th of July, & come the following day he traded the corpse of Dwight Howard for the corpse of C.J. Miles. A lugubrious move? Perhaps, but welcome at least on one level, since it had been time for Howard to go from before Ernie signed him!

Ok, that was 8 new Wizards. (Or 8 1/2 -- if you count Bryant as half-new, seeing him in retrospect as Sheppard's first GM move, which makes pretty good sense.)

Then, to make the week after Independence Day a really busy one, Tommy traded for Davis Bertans (on 7/6) & inked both Ish Smith (7/9) & Isaiah Thomas (7/10) as well.

11 new Wizards in 3 weeks. Plus Thomas Bryant under contract. & we also picked up a couple of extra R2 picks along the way.

Since then... it's been quiet. & now training camp is only a few weeks ago. We have a full roster -- we're plus 1, in fact, with 16 guys under contract. Will there be another flurry of activity mirroring the 3 weeks from the draft onward? Hard to see that happening. Will something happen all the same? If so, what should it be?

Above all, how did we do? Did we have a good off-season? A disappointing one? What do you think?

Stepping out of my normal role of being a fan and putting on my objective glasses I thin the Wizards did well. Granted that the NBA is a result based league so how our players perform on the court will be the ultimate deciding factor, I am pleased with many of the moves we made. I like the resigning of Thomas Bryant and I like drafting Rui. I like the reorganizing of our front office and I like the way the team is prioritizing growth.

Go back to the abysmal start of last season. We had no cap space, an underperforming team and terrible chemistry. The Wizards that closed out the season had a much different air around them. They were young. They were hungry. And Brad was their leader. I think this team is going pick up right where we left off. I'd rather have a less talented, over-performing, hard-working, hungry team. Than a more talented, under-performing, lazy, entitled team. I expect the new guys on this roster will bring the same energy that they bought at the end of last season. No one is giving us a chance. Everyone has us penciled in for a top 5 draft pick. But I see talent here.

I expect us to compete to make the playoffs. And, more importantly, I expect us to start building a winning culture. I don't know if we will make the playoffs but in the long run it's irrelevant. Sadly, the path forward is still very meandering with steep drop-offs lurking around every turn. Our front office has some very difficult decisions ahead. What do we do with Bradley Beal. What do we do with John Wall. What kind of player will John Wall return as. Those questions I listed drive to the heart of who this team is, where we are going and what fans can expect. I don't think they'll be resolved until at least a year or two from now, but in the mean time I think the team is on sure ground.

Regardless of how the season plays out, we will be adding another young player to our team next draft. And going into next year we will have a level of young talent and depth that we have never really seen before. So all in all, I'm excited to be a Wizard fan. I'm excited to see Rui play in the NBA. I'm excited to see how Troy Brown Jr. and Thomas Bryant have improved their game. And I'm excited to see if Beal can take another step. There's a new fresh breeze gusting around this team and it has me excited to watch us play. Not because we are going to win a championship, but rather because for the first time, in a long time, there is the smell of hope coming from my favorite basketball team.

[payitforward]

Really love your last paragraph, prime1time. Especially:

...I'm excited to be a Wizard fan. I'm excited to see Rui play in the NBA. I'm excited to see how Troy Brown Jr. and Thomas Bryant have improved their game. And I'm excited to see if Beal can take another step. There's a new fresh breeze gusting around this team and it has me excited to watch us play. ...for the first time, in a long time, there is the smell of hope coming from my favorite basketball team.

[gambitx777]

I think that is the general consensus that there is hope again.

Sent from my SM-G965U1 using RealGM mobile app

[nate33]

I think that is the general consensus that there is hope again.

Sent from my SM-G965U1 using RealGM mobile app

Yup. It's a really strange feeling.

For me, the reason for hope is Bryant and Hachimura. I think both of those guys will be above-average starters within 2 years, and at least one of them might end up in an All-Star game at some point in his career.

I'm somewhat hopeful for Brown as well, but I think his upside will be that of an average starter, not a star. But still, that's 3 good young guys, each with 3 or more years left on their existing cheap contracts - that's a reason for hope. We also have the luxury of a throwaway season that we can use to focus on developing those guys while tanking for another high pick.

[doclinkin]

I think that is the general consensus that there is hope again.

Sent from my SM-G965U1 using RealGM mobile app

Yup. It's a really strange feeling.

For me, the reason for hope is Bryant and Hachimura. I think both of those guys will be above-average starters within 2 years, and at least one of them might end up in an All-Star game at some point in his career.

I'm somewhat hopeful for Brown as well, but I think his upside will be that of an average starter, not a star. But still, that's 3 good young guys, each with 3 or more years left on their existing cheap contracts - that's a reason for hope. We also have the luxury of a throwaway season that we can use to focus on developing those guys while tanking for another high pick.

I also credit the Front Office changes and emphasis on analysis as reason for hope. We collectively make smart decisions here on this board when we pool our ideas. And we are frankly just hacks, not data and sports professionals. The addition to Dean Oliver to the COACHING staff is intriguing to me. I don't think other teams in the league are doing that. Maybe Houston. Money added to hiring developmental coaches, investments in medical technology and best practices, building a cutting edge training facility. The purchase of a minor league team, a farm team that will try to run a similar system. These are all things we have argued for.

And I think this crew here was won over by the purchase of a 2nd round pick and adding a few more in future years in trades. That we actually value adding extra picks is gold.

[gambitx777]

I mean i think if we get in on the ground floor of the minor league system that could be huge 10 years from now when every team has a minor league team and high school kids are coming out in the draft in droves and euro players are still coming over and older players are getting overlooked and load management becomes bigger and bigger. your going to see guys get called up for 10 games and sent back and key bench guys being rested at the end of the season for play off runs and instead of signing stop gap vets for injuries you're going to have 10-15 young guys on the minor league team to call up who already know the system. like thats the future and its going to be here sooner than we think.

[payitforward]

I have liked some moves & felt critical of some other moves, but there are a few important things I would stress as exceptionally positive indicators about Tommy & what he's done.

1. Of the guys who ended last season with us, we knew Wall, Beal, Brown, Bryant & (for better or worse) Mahinmi would be here this year. Absolutely everyone else (with the possible exception of McRae, who's not guaranteed) is gone. All of them! This shows decisiveness & confidence.

2. We had nothing of any value to trade, but we still got 5 players by way of trades: Miles, Bertans, Wagner, Bonga & Jones. This shows imagination & cleverness.

3. Via the draft or undrafted, we added 5 rookies: Hachimura, Schofield, Robinson, Matthews & Booth. This indicates long-term vision.

4. We signed only 2 veteran FAs (Smith & IT), both short-term, neither expensive, neither "strategic." One -- maybe even both -- reflect the temporary absence of John Wall. This, along with my next 2 points, indicates that we aren't building for "now" or even "soon," but plan to create a wholly new generation of the Wizards centered around Beal.

5. The only other veterans we acquired (Bertans & Miles) are expiring. It's possible that the biggest contribution either or both them will make to the Wizards is to be available to trade at the deadline. Maybe ditto Smith & IT.

6. Aside from Wall, Beal, Ish Smith, & the unguaranteed Jemerrio Jones, no player on the Washington Wizards who has any kind of a deal for next year, guaranteed or not, is older than 22.

The combination of 4, 5 & especially 6 above provides a telling insight into how radical this rebuild really is.

[verbal8]

2. We had nothing of any value to trade, but we still got 5 players by way of trades: Miles, Bertans, Wagner, Bonga & Jones. This shows imagination & cleverness.

The most questionable deal was acquiring Miles, but it really only damaged Ted's pocketbook - and not being in the tax mitigates the financial downside - especially if they get insurance payments for Wall.

[payitforward]

Yeah, I also disliked the move to acquire Miles. Why not just cut Howard & sign a younger player for @ $3m? The salary hit would have been the same. Layman was the obvious target.

But... maybe Layman wasn't actually available to us? & we'd just added 7 guys & re-inked Bryant. Average age of those 8 guys: 21 years old. I can see why Tommy hit on C.J. Miles. I still don't love the deal. But, he'll be here & gone in a blink. Plus... maybe someone will give us a R2 pick for him at the deadline?

This points up the key fact about the off season: we had nothing to work with! Our only asset was the #9 pick. & some $$ to trade for a R2 pick. We had no trade assets. We didn't have a ton of cap room to spend on established players. Basically, we had nothing -- plus a negative (Howard). & we used that "nothing + a negative" to acquire 8 players: Robinson, Matthews, Booth, Bonga, Jones, Wagner, Bertans & Miles.

In that sense, I guess how good the off season looks in retrospect will come down to how many of the 6 young guys on that list develop into good NBA players. E.g. if there are 4 NBA players among them, it'll look like a triumph! Even 3 would be amazing.