Rui Hachimura

[prime1time]

Not really concerned about the knee discomfort. If they would have made it to the next round he would have played. Wizards are just doing load management.

[queridiculo]

I envy you for your naivety.

As a long time Wizards fan "knee discomfort" sends shivers down my spine.

[Illmatic12]

Well, there's https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/nba/finally-an-easy-one-us-rolls-by-japan-98-45-at-world-cup/2019/09/05/001b2fa2-cfe9-11e9-a620-0a91656d7db6_story.html

POP ON RUI

Hachimura worked out for Popovich and the San Antonio Spurs before the draft, and left a positive impression on the U.S. and Spurs coach. “He knows what he can do, puts himself in position to be successful and score, plays D, rebounds, runs the floor,” Popovich said. “He’s got an all-around game. His confidence is growing and he’ll be a fine player, obviously, and have a very long career.”

Ainge wanted him as well .. interesting (though I don’t think drafting is particularly Ainge’s strong suit)

Read on Twitter

?s=21

[nate33]

Well, there's https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/nba/finally-an-easy-one-us-rolls-by-japan-98-45-at-world-cup/2019/09/05/001b2fa2-cfe9-11e9-a620-0a91656d7db6_story.html

POP ON RUI

Hachimura worked out for Popovich and the San Antonio Spurs before the draft, and left a positive impression on the U.S. and Spurs coach. “He knows what he can do, puts himself in position to be successful and score, plays D, rebounds, runs the floor,” Popovich said. “He’s got an all-around game. His confidence is growing and he’ll be a fine player, obviously, and have a very long career.”

Ainge wanted him as well .. interesting (though I don’t think drafting is particularly Ainge’s strong suit)

Read on Twitter

?s=21

The next tweet on the string:

Read on Twitter

I guess now we see why there was no effort to trade down. They had Hachimura as their highest player left on the board, and they had reason to believe he wouldn't last 1 or 2 more spots, so a trade down wasn't an option.

One can still argue that Brandon Clarke plus whatever late 1st/high 2nd they obtained in a trade down will pan out to be better than Hachimura, but it appears unlikely that Hachimura was still obtainable after a trade down.

[Illmatic12]

Never made sense that he would be available in a trade down , heck Sheppard literally said teams were calling HIM about acquiring the #9 pick specifically to draft Rui.

Hachimura was in fact the main player teams were trying to trade up for.



FIBA just posted a highlight from Hachimura during the WC. Watching these two back to back, I think the Rui/Bryant frontcourt could give the team an identity of being hard to play against. Two energy bigs who are physical and dominant finishers around the basket:

Watch on YouTube

Watch on YouTube

Of course , both of them have to take strides and bring it consistently. This season the coaching staff will be able to observe how they fare against physical playoff teams and whether they have the toughness to push back. If a younger team is able to compete physically and consistently scores a lot of points in the paint, it’s a good sign moving forward and one step closer to a winning formula.

[prime1time]

I envy you for your naivety.

As a long time Wizards fan "knee discomfort" sends shivers down my spine.

Ok, lets think it out. If it was an actual injury they would say. Knee discomfort could literally be anything. I watched all his pre-game and post-game interviews. Nothing was ever mentioned. I saw nothing on court to suggest anything. If he tears his acl or injures his knee in any significant way, chances are great it won't be due to this. I think he's going to come into camp completely healthy.

[nate33]

I envy you for your naivety.

As a long time Wizards fan "knee discomfort" sends shivers down my spine.

Ok, lets think it out. If it was an actual injury they would say. Knee discomfort could literally be anything. I watched all his pre-game and post-game interviews. Nothing was ever mentioned. I saw nothing on court to suggest anything. If he tears his acl or injures his knee in any significant way, chances are great it won't be due to this. I think he's going to come into camp completely healthy.

Agreed. He's fine.

Frankly all the paranoia about the Wizards' medical staff is outdated. Over the last few years, the Wizards have been very good about diagnosing injuries early and doing what it takes to keep players healthy.

[Ruzious]

Never made sense that he would be available in a trade down , heck Sheppard literally said teams were calling HIM about acquiring the #9 pick specifically to draft Rui.

Hachimura was in fact the main player teams were trying to trade up for.



FIBA just posted a highlight from Hachimura during the WC. Watching these two back to back, I think the Rui/Bryant frontcourt could give the team an identity of being hard to play against. Two energy bigs who are physical and dominant finishers around the basket:

Spoiler:

Watch on YouTube

Watch on YouTube

Of course , both of them have to take strides and bring it consistently. This season the coaching staff will be able to observe how they fare against physical playoff teams and whether they have the toughness to push back. If a younger team is able to compete physically and consistently scores a lot of points in the paint, it’s a good sign moving forward and one step closer to a winning formula.

Not sure any other team has a combo like them - combining energy and strength and the potential to both be good 3 point shooters. We don't have to worry about them not giving max effort. Actually, I could see it the other way - they try so hard that we may have to limit their minutes a bit.

[payitforward]

<snip...>

I guess now we see why there was no effort to trade down. They had Hachimura as their highest player left on the board, and they had reason to believe he wouldn't last 1 or 2 more spots, so a trade down wasn't an option..., (because) it appears unlikely that Hachimura was still obtainable after a trade down

I don't quite follow this, nate: any team at any position in the draft will have "their highest (rated) player left on the board." The question isn't whether you can get the guy you rate highest at #9 by trading down to #20 & #22. The question is whether you can get more overall by doing so.

That's the only goal: get the most value out of the draft. If you have one guy in mind, one guy only, you will never do that. History seems to show that positions 1-3 in the draft are the only possible exceptions to that rule -- draft spots that potentially give you more than you can get by trading down.

One can still argue that Brandon Clarke plus whatever late 1st/high 2nd they obtained in a trade down will pan out to be better than Hachimura....

We'll see who turns out how, of course. No matter whether you stand pat or trade down you always face a risk that you don't do well. In fact, one advantage of multiple picks is to lessen that particular risk.

But, in this case, I believe you are somewhat under-estimating the trade-down side of the equation. Obviously, we have no idea what trade would actually have been possible, but as you recall we were using Pelton's chart of pick values, based on which we had the model that our #9 would bring Ainge's #20 & 22.

With that as a model, the idea was that we'd have taken Clarke at #20 & then (had Thybulle not been taken @#21) picked Thybulle for Philly, getting the #s 24 & 33 in return (Ainge did this with the #20 pick as you recall).

Ainge then used the #24 to get rid of Aron Baynes -- trading him & that pick to Phoenix for the Milwaukee Bucks R1 pick next year. We would more likely have used the pick. One of Grant Williams, Keldon Johnson or Dylan Windler might have been our pick (or take a flyer on Kevin Porter? Nassir Little? Mfiundu Kabengele?).

With the #33, they took Carsen Edwards. Hence, in that case, instead of Rui, we'd have come away with 3 players: Brandon Clarke & Carsen Edwards, plus one of Keldon Johnson, Grant Williams, Dylan Windler, Nassir Little or Kabengele.

OTOH, had Thybulle gone @ #21, meaning we couldn't make the Philly trade (it was available to Boston b/c Elton Brand was all in on Thybulle), then we would simply take Clarke plus either Grant Williams or one of Johnson/Windler/Little/Kabengele.

Now... who the hell knows whether we could have made that trade with Boston, right? But, it doesn't matter, b/c what we were discussing was whether it would have been a good idea if it had been available. For that discussion to be serious, we have to look at what we would/could really have gotten.

Would I rather have Brandon Clarke &, say, both Keldon Johnson & Carsen Edwards instead of Rui Hachimura? That's easy to answer: yes, absolutely! Just Clarke &, say, Williams? Ditto.

Is it possible I'll turn out to be wrong about that? That's equally easy to answer: yes, absolutely!

But anyone who confidently announces right now that I'm wrong -- you know, b/c Rui is obviously so great! -- is just blowing out hot air. Right now, we don't even know whether Rui Hachimura can play in the NBA at all! Or, for that matter, whether Brandon Clarke can! Or Williams or Johnson or Windler or Little or Kabengele or Carsen Edwards for that matter!

If you could know any of that in advance the draft would be easy! But you can't... & that's one reason why getting 3 guys offers an advantage over getting 1 -- it puts chance on your side.

All 7 guys I mentioned could turn out to be better than Rui. It's unlikely... but it could happen. Or, Rui could turn out to be better than every one of those 7 guys. That too is unlikely. But, what's really unlikely is that none of them, not a single one, turns out to be as good as Rui Hachimura. & even more unlikely would be that 2 or 3 of them combined don't turn out to out-value Rui.

We'll see. In the meantime, I hope Rui becomes an outstanding NBA player.

[JWizmentality]

I mean...it's almost as if, with the exception of generational talent, the draft is a complete crapshoot where no matter what approach you take, you're operating on the best information you have and any scenario we "think" was the best option is pure speculation that we can only pick apart in hindsight.

OMG.

[jivelikenice]

The trade down critique is a bit much now. There are a ton of factors likely involved in a trade down including but not limited to:
1. Who wants to move up?
2. What are they offering?
3. How far down would you have to go?
4. Is there a chance the player you want goes by then?
5. How far ahead was Rui ranked on their board then whoever else was left.

What are we arguing here? Why didn't we get a 2nd from the Hawks to move down one spot? Well why didn't the Hawks get something from us to move from 9 to 8? This is just silly now. You could argue that for every made after the no-brainers were done.
"well why didn't they move down one spot and still get that guy"

[wall_glizzy]

Yeah I think we can dispense with litigating this particular Celtics trade scenario (and I say this as someone who was also in favor of trading down, though I look forward to my ride aboard the Hachimura train). The Pelton chart is useful, but it's important to remember that it's an aggregation - that picks end up around those values on average, but that the collective league perception of individual draft classes can vary significantly.

In this sense, PIF is right that it was a great year to think about trading down - the draft was perceived to be very, very top-heavy, with a long tail from around the 7th or 8th pick to, seemingly, the end of the 1st round or so. However, when an assessment like this is widely-shared, it's going to result in a lot of late-lottery sellers with few, if any, pick-rich teams so in love with a particular prospect that they were willing to pay up for an earlier pick (off the top of my head, the Hawks with Hunter and the Wolves, unsuccessfully, with Garland are the only two clear examples of this). In fact, the trade-up market only seemed to really take off in the early 20s, i.e. the point at which, if some team's favored prospect happened to remain on the board, they could be had for as little as a first and a mid-second round pick (or similar).

All that is to say that I take a dim view, personally, of what sort of trade-down options the Zards likely had on the table. If we find ourselves wondering, repeatedly, why some particular trade that was so obvious didn't materialize, it's probably because the two parties (ourselves and Danny Ainge, in this case, one of the league's notorious asset hoarders) weren't close to aligned on the relative value of each side of the trade.

I'd like to make one other nitpick in defense of not trading down: PIF, when assessing the options available to us in terms of one #9 pick vs. the sum total of later picks that could have been had in exchange, I think you're discounting the value of concentrated talent in today's NBA. That is, supposing that Rui attains value x at some point in the future, I'd argue that he, individually, would be more valuable than two players each of value 2/3 or even 3/4 x. It's a superstar-driven league, and in the current free agency environment especially (i.e. stars begetting other stars, and factoring into the calculus even for the top few role players in a given year), I can certainly understand the viewpoint that you want to prioritize one guy who you think has a meaningfully greater chance of becoming that sort of star over casting a wider net to grab a couple of somewhat lesser prospects*.

* If you wanted to argue that this year's relatively flat (perceived) talent curve past the early lottery means that the combined potential of multiple players available in the 20s this year to produce at least one star-level player is greater, or very close to, the potential of a single player available at #9, I'd probably agree with you. I'd also caveat that this assessment is likely not unique to you and I, and unknown to, say, Danny Ainge.

[Rafael122]

People are treating the NBA Draft like it's the NFL Draft, "just trade down and get 17 2nd round picks!" If Rui was their guy, which it sounds like he was, get him. Don't get cute.

[nuposse04]

^This guy needs to post more

[payitforward]

The trade down critique is a bit much now. There are a ton of factors likely involved in a trade down including but not limited to:
1. Who wants to move up?
2. What are they offering?
3. How far down would you have to go?
4. Is there a chance the player you want goes by then?
5. How far ahead was Rui ranked on their board then whoever else was left.

What are we arguing here? Why didn't we get a 2nd from the Hawks to move down one spot? Well why didn't the Hawks get something from us to move from 9 to 8? This is just silly now. You could argue that for every made after the no-brainers were done.
"well why didn't they move down one spot and still get that guy"

You are certainly right that we have no idea what was/wasn't available. Which means that we can only talk about particular potential trades, & when we do it is mostly a discussion of how best to manage the draft (any year) -- so, really, it shouldn't be in the Rui Hachimura thread.

On that topic ("how best...") your points #4 & 5 are irrelevant:

"4" --If you go into a draft with one "player you want," you lose. That's a terrible way to manage the draft. You manage it best by trying to maximize what you get out of the draft. & for a rebuilding team like the Wizards, that's doubly true.

"5" -- where/how Rui was ranked on the Wizards board is irrelevant; it's not the point -- on that basis, there can be no discussion & no critique of anyone's draft, since by definition every team picks the player they rank the highest when their pick comes.

Look... this subject may not be interesting to you, or to most people for that matter. Fine. Don't engage with it.

[payitforward]

^This guy needs to post more

Right, Raf is only at 18,500 posts!

[DCZards]

I'd like to make one other nitpick in defense of not trading down: PIF, when assessing the options available to us in terms of one #9 pick vs. the sum total of later picks that could have been had in exchange, I think you're discounting the value of concentrated talent in today's NBA. That is, supposing that Rui attains value x at some point in the future, I'd argue that he, individually, would be more valuable than two players each of value 2/3 or even 3/4 x. It's a superstar-driven league, and in the current free agency environment especially (i.e. stars begetting other stars, and factoring into the calculus even for the top few role players in a given year), I can certainly understand the viewpoint that you want to prioritize one guy who you think has a meaningfully greater chance of becoming that sort of star over casting a wider net to grab a couple of somewhat lesser prospects*.

I’m guessing that’s what the Zards were thinking when they locked in on Hachimura. Rightfully or wrongfully, I think they (and apparently a few other teams) saw Rui's value/potential as an “X” and, as you point out, the NBA is an increasingly star-driven league where one “X” is perceived as being more valuable than two slightly less talented “Xs.”

[DCZards]

^This guy needs to post more

Right, Raf is only at 18,500 posts!

I think nuposse04 was referring to wall_glizzy....but I might be wrong about that.

[Ruzious]

That felt like a Globetrotters vs Generals game

Rui did give the fans one highlight though. Whew, laawd

Read on Twitter

?s=21

A take-off on Edgar Allen Poe's "Murder at the "Rui" Morgue"?

[Illmatic12]

Never made sense that he would be available in a trade down , heck Sheppard literally said teams were calling HIM about acquiring the #9 pick specifically to draft Rui.

Hachimura was in fact the main player teams were trying to trade up for.



FIBA just posted a highlight from Hachimura during the WC. Watching these two back to back, I think the Rui/Bryant frontcourt could give the team an identity of being hard to play against. Two energy bigs who are physical and dominant finishers around the basket:

Spoiler:

Watch on YouTube

Watch on YouTube

Of course , both of them have to take strides and bring it consistently. This season the coaching staff will be able to observe how they fare against physical playoff teams and whether they have the toughness to push back. If a younger team is able to compete physically and consistently scores a lot of points in the paint, it’s a good sign moving forward and one step closer to a winning formula.

Not sure any other team has a combo like them - combining energy and strength and the potential to both be good 3 point shooters. We don't have to worry about them not giving max effort. Actually, I could see it the other way - they try so hard that we may have to limit their minutes a bit.

I don’t know how well they will defend. But they’re gonna run the floor hard and attack the basket with ferocity, that’s for sure.

Ironically, it’s the exact type of energetic frontcourt I always loathed to face when we had Markieff/Gortat as our starters. Now the shoe is on the other foot , when vet teams come into DC thinking it’ll be a lazy night off, these kids will run circles around them.