freethedevil wrote:I'd like to hear your perspective on
a. 2014 kd vs 2017 kd
b. 2014 kd vs 2019 giannis
a.I actually think '17 KD is perhaps slightly
better than '14 KD, although it's tricky for a few reasons which I'll go into. His rate metrics [during the rs] are mostly a little better in '14 (while playing higher mpg, too); but I suspect that's largely just a result of his usage falling by >5% in a more talent-rich environment. But while his scoring volume goes down a little, his rTS% increases marginally to an astounding +9.9% (was +9.4% in '14), and his turnover economy is
substantially better than in '14, in relation to better spacing and less defensive pressure falling immediately upon him.
However, I do think his shot selection (or at least shot distribution) looks a little better [marginally more shots at the rim and beyond the arc] in '17, and his mid-range game looked more polished and "money" in '17 [was 1.1% worse in 10-16' range, but +7% from 3-10' and >+11% better from 16-23' (career-best 55.8% [which is ridiculous] in this range in '17). Looked more confident in the playoffs too (and btw shot an even more ridiculous 62.9% from 16-23' in the playoffs
).
Again, some of the favourable circumstances in GS apply here, though.
Defensively, I think he had arguably the best season of his career in '17, having career-best defensive rebounding numbers, career-best (stl+blk)/100 possessions numbers, and looking like a totally capable perimeter defender when called upon to do so. Although I think he was playing decent defense by '14, he looks clearly better on that end in '17. However, one has to again take into account the reduced usage in this more talent-rich environment (freeing up both physical and mental energy for defense), as well as the fact that he played 5.1 fewer mpg in '17 relative to '14 (7.4 fewer mpg in the playoffs)--->so fatigue is less of an issue.
But overall, I think one can make a case that he was better in '17; but it's certainly isn't by much. And as sort of a tie/near-tie breaker, those 20 missed games kinda put '17 marginally below '14 for me overall.
b.Giannis is a fairly solid candidate at this point, imo. vs '14 Durant, well I think Durant's the better scorer. To substantiate that by the numbers: '14 Durant was averaging 41.8 pts/100 @ +9.4% rTS, vs 39.3 pts/100 @ +8.4% rTS for '19 Giannis; and this while Durant was playing nearly 6 extra mpg (making fatigue a more significant concern for him).
Their gravity and spacing effects is an interesting consideration, because they're almost the reverse of each other. Durant obviously spreads the floor, opening things up for Westbrook [others?] to penetrate into the paint area. Giannis frequently starts on the perimeter but can't really shoot outside; instead he's a terror attacking the rim: so he can sometimes create the opposite effect, of sucking help defenders in (creating better looks from the outside for Middleton, Bledsoe, Brogdon, Lopez, etc). I'm not sure if one's effect is better than the other.
Giannis does get slightly more assists, though I actually think Durant is the slightly better playmaker. I think he's just marginally more creative and/or precise with interior passing. Durant has the better turnover economy (8.41% Mod TOV% vs 9.43% for Giannis).
In the playoffs, Giannis averaged 35.7 pts/100 @ +1.0% rTS (for simplicity just using the rs TS to gauge that), 6.8 ast/100, 4.7 tov/100. '14 Durant in the playoffs averaged 35.9 pts/100 @ +2.9% rTS, 4.8 ast/100, 4.6 tov/100, while playing nearly
nine additional mpg. I also think he faced the slightly tougher average defense in the playoffs. The '19 Bucks faced the 11th-rated defense, 7th-rated defense, and the 5th-rated defense (Spicey P largely guarding him in the last one). Durant faced the 7th-rated defense, the 9th-rated defense, and the 3rd-rated defense in '14, being guarded by a combo of Tayshaun Prince/Tony Allen in the first series, and [a pre high-usage/fully applied defensively] Kawhi Leonard in the latter.
And while I hate to say it, I feel Giannis has a marginally easier environment in terms of how the game is officiated.
So overall, I think Durant is the clear better offensive player, though I suppose the gap arguably isn't big.
otoh, Giannis is the better rebounder (even relative to positional expectation, I think you need to give him the clear edge) and the better defensive player. Although I do think Durant is frequently underrated on that end, probably based on prior reputation (which some people just can't let go of). It's like how you STILL have people saying Kawhi gives you DPOY-calibre defense, when he hasn't really provided that [in the rs especially] for quite awhile now; has even been long stretches in the rs where he's been damn near mediocre. But people still credit him with that based on what he was years ago. In the same way, many people wanted to continue to stick the "bad defender" label on Durant long after it stopped being true.
On a per-minute basis, I'd actually hedge toward Giannis as the better and more impactful player. But he's doing so in 5.7 fewer mpg (8.6 fewer mpg in the playoffs); so I'm skeptical he's exerting more positive impact
per game than '14 Durant; and his missed 9 additional games, too, fwiw. EDIT: I'll also give Durant the edge in portability (which I think '17 pretty nearly proved), for what that's worth.
"The fact that a proposition is absurd has never hindered those who wish to believe it." -Edward Rutherfurd
"Those who can make you believe absurdities, can make you commit atrocities." - Voltaire
Especially considering Westbrook’s monumental possession time and usage rate (which was used as both a criticism of Kawhi and of Harden). And given the continual reports out of Oklahoma City that Russell is the main reason the Thunder never adopted a motion offence, it would be relatively easy to make the same case — as has been done by many media analysts, including Zach Lowe at times — that Westbrook’s ball domination and specific brand of passing creates a stagnant offence which is especially debilitating in the playoffs.