Wizards win totals and other predictions. Degenerate gambler thread.

doclinkin · Post #1 » by **doclinkin** » Mon Sep 16, 2019 2:22 pm

It’s probably early for this sort of thing, however in light of the fact that there is a new gambling forum and with Ted’s emphasis on gambling, I figure it would be cool to have a resource to check the brains of our generally smart board if people had insight or thoughts.

Legal gambling has already taken out Buck and Phil I suspect there will be other unforeseen changes. Even the fact that the NBA will require teams to release starting lineups a half hour before hand is surely so that gamblers can’t be frustrated by the Coach Pop load management methodology.

Anyway. We are predicted at 27.5 wins as the over under. Thoughts?

Post #2 » by **nate33** » Mon Sep 16, 2019 2:43 pm

I'd take the over on that. This isn't the official predictions thread, but for now, I'll leaning towards 30 wins.

I think Bryant might actually be our best center since Ruland (excepting a short spurt by Nene immediately after he was traded here and the one year when Muresan stayed healthy). I think Bertans is a solid starter. And I think Rui, Brown and Ish will be playable if not exactly starting caliber. Add a top 15 player like Beal to that mix and put them in the East, and 30 wins doesn't seem too far fetched.

Post #3 » by **montestewart** » Mon Sep 16, 2019 3:20 pm

Low 30s, 32 or 33, so over under of 32.5

Moses Malone had one good year as center for the Bullets

nuposse04 · Post #4 » by **nuposse04** » Mon Sep 16, 2019 4:14 pm

I'm an optimistic nihilist so I'll say 35. Would help if Brooks got canned somewhere in the beginning of the season. One can dream anyways.

JWizmentality · Post #5 » by **JWizmentality** » Mon Sep 16, 2019 5:09 pm

I'm always overly optimistic. I'll go 38.

Mojo Amok · Post #6 » by **Mojo Amok** » Mon Sep 16, 2019 5:44 pm

Tommy dropped a tank mandate at the end of the 2019 season, which should give us pause in making our projections. I don't know if the final win total is going to be reflective of what the actual potential of the team is as we might prioritize some late-season development for Schofield, Bonga, Wagner, Robinson, t̶h̶e̶ ̶l̶o̶c̶a̶l̶ ̶A̶B̶ ̶I̶n̶B̶e̶v̶ ̶s̶a̶l̶e̶s̶ ̶r̶e̶p̶r̶e̶s̶e̶n̶t̶a̶t̶i̶v̶e̶ and whoever else strikes our fancy (*clears throat*).

Overall, I will say 28 wins, but it seems more likely that we're going to settle at a specific lottery seeding than a win threshold. We'll likely prioritize the development culture over a bottom 3 finish for the sake of Rui, Brown, and Bryant, so I'll say we probably settle at 4th or 5th worst. If Beal can't stomach that, maybe they go all out for the full season, but the FO's preference looks to be low end.

Unless they inexplicably end up being good, the late-season strategy will probably be to win as many games as possible with the young guys, but without screwing up the lottery seeding. We probably finish with the absolute most wins possible while still being 5th worst and have tense games where we're praying for Cedric Jackson to miss 4th quarter shots.

BigA · Post #7 » by **BigA** » Mon Sep 16, 2019 6:21 pm

As of today I'd go with 22 wins. I can see getting to the mid-30s if everything breaks right, but this team still has very little margin for error or bad luck. An injury to Beal or Bryant that causes either to miss significant games is going to make those losses pile up.

Plus crappy PG situation. Plus Brooks.

Shoe · Post #8 » by **Shoe** » Mon Sep 16, 2019 6:36 pm

Over/under Beal 6 assists per game. Over/under Rui 16 ppg

Post #9 » by **nate33** » Mon Sep 16, 2019 7:40 pm

Mojo Amok wrote:Tommy dropped a tank mandate at the end of the 2019 season, which should give us pause in making our projections. I don't know if the final win total is going to be reflective of what the actual potential of the team is as we might prioritize some late-season development for Schofield, Bonga, Wagner, Robinson, t̶h̶e̶ ̶l̶o̶c̶a̶l̶ ̶A̶B̶ ̶I̶n̶B̶e̶v̶ ̶s̶a̶l̶e̶s̶ ̶r̶e̶p̶r̶e̶s̶e̶n̶t̶a̶t̶i̶v̶e̶ and whoever else strikes our fancy (*clears throat*).

Overall, I will say 28 wins, but it seems more likely that we're going to settle at a specific lottery seeding than a win threshold. We'll likely prioritize the development culture over a bottom 3 finish for the sake of Rui, Brown, and Bryant, so I'll say we probably settle at 4th or 5th worst. If Beal can't stomach that, maybe they go all out for the full season, but the FO's preference looks to be low end.

Unless they inexplicably end up being good, the late-season strategy will probably be to win as many games as possible with the young guys, but without screwing up the lottery seeding. We probably finish with the absolute most wins possible while still being 5th worst and have tense games where we're praying for Cedric Jackson to miss 4th quarter shots.

I hear you on the tank mandate, but I also hear a lot of talk about playing the right way and developing high character guys. (We also know that Beal is unwilling to sit in order to facilitate tanking. He's not wired that way.) My interpretation is that they will play the young guys a lot, but they will absolutely try and win as many games as they can. They do NOT want any whiff of lackadaisical play

Fortunately, it's really not an either/or choice. Developing youngsters is the same thing as trying to win because, for the most part, their best players are also the guys they want to develop (Bryant, Hachimura, Brown, Beal, Bertans). Pretty much the only spot on the roster where they have to actually choose between short term wins and long term development is backup SF, where developing Schofield/Jones/Bonga may cost us wins if they displace Miles. (And I'm not even sure about that, Miles may be washed up.)

prime1time · Post #10 » by **prime1time** » Tue Sep 17, 2019 5:06 am

45 - 37

prime1time · Post #11 » by **prime1time** » Tue Sep 17, 2019 5:07 am

Shoe wrote:Over/under Beal 6 assists per game. Over/under Rui 16 ppg

Over on both. Team is going to try to get Beal on an All-NBA team. And Rui has the scoring ability to get 16. Only question is if he'll get the opportunities.

JWizmentality · Post #12 » by **JWizmentality** » Tue Sep 17, 2019 7:41 pm

nate33 wrote:
Mojo Amok wrote:Tommy dropped a tank mandate at the end of the 2019 season, which should give us pause in making our projections. I don't know if the final win total is going to be reflective of what the actual potential of the team is as we might prioritize some late-season development for Schofield, Bonga, Wagner, Robinson, t̶h̶e̶ ̶l̶o̶c̶a̶l̶ ̶A̶B̶ ̶I̶n̶B̶e̶v̶ ̶s̶a̶l̶e̶s̶ ̶r̶e̶p̶r̶e̶s̶e̶n̶t̶a̶t̶i̶v̶e̶ and whoever else strikes our fancy (*clears throat*).

Overall, I will say 28 wins, but it seems more likely that we're going to settle at a specific lottery seeding than a win threshold. We'll likely prioritize the development culture over a bottom 3 finish for the sake of Rui, Brown, and Bryant, so I'll say we probably settle at 4th or 5th worst. If Beal can't stomach that, maybe they go all out for the full season, but the FO's preference looks to be low end.

Unless they inexplicably end up being good, the late-season strategy will probably be to win as many games as possible with the young guys, but without screwing up the lottery seeding. We probably finish with the absolute most wins possible while still being 5th worst and have tense games where we're praying for Cedric Jackson to miss 4th quarter shots.

I hear you on the tank mandate, but I also hear a lot of talk about playing the right way and developing high character guys. (We also know that Beal is unwilling to sit in order to facilitate tanking. He's not wired that way.) My interpretation is that they will play the young guys a lot, but they will absolutely try and win as many games as they can. They do NOT want any whiff of lackadaisical play

Fortunately, it's really not an either/or choice. Developing youngsters is the same thing as trying to win because, for the most part, their best players are also the guys they want to develop (Bryant, Hachimura, Brown, Beal, Bertans). Pretty much the only spot on the roster where they have to actually choose between short term wins and long term development is backup SF, where developing Schofield/Jones/Bonga may cost us wins if they displace Miles. (And I'm not even sure about that, Miles may be washed up.)

Holy crap I had no idea Bertans was only 26yo. :-?

payitforward · Post #13 » by **payitforward** » Tue Sep 17, 2019 8:52 pm

JWizmentality wrote:...I had no idea Bertans was only 26yo.

Interesting article on Bertans:

https://airalamo.com/2019/07/30/san-antonio-spurs-make-mistake-trading-davis-bertans/

payitforward · Post #14 » by **payitforward** » Tue Sep 17, 2019 8:58 pm

While we're at it -- though not relevant to this thread -- here is the same source on a guy I really liked for us in R2: https://airalamo.com/2019/08/31/san-antonio-spurs-realizing-potential-quinndary-weatherspoon/

We took Admiral @#42; Weatherspoon went #49. Lets see who becomes the more effective NBA player.

Tyrone Messby · Post #15 » by **Tyrone Messby** » Thu Sep 19, 2019 2:00 pm

This team will find a way to screw up the tank and end up with 35-36 wins.

payitforward · Post #16 » by **payitforward** » Thu Sep 19, 2019 2:42 pm

Post #17 » by **Ruzious** » Thu Sep 19, 2019 9:36 pm

payitforward wrote:While we're at it -- though not relevant to this thread -- here is the same source on a guy I really liked for us in R2: https://airalamo.com/2019/08/31/san-antonio-spurs-realizing-potential-quinndary-weatherspoon/

We took Admiral @#42; Weatherspoon went #49. Lets see who becomes the more effective NBA player.

They should have taken the guy picked at 44 - even if there's only a 25% chance he stays healthy (hey, this is the degenerate gambler thread). Why why… not Bol Bol??

payitforward · Post #18 » by **payitforward** » Thu Sep 19, 2019 11:54 pm

For sure -- hard to pass on him.

Seems like they made the trade with specific intention to pick Admiral. He was the guy they wanted. I didn't & still don't see why. He doesn't look like an NBA player to me.... But, a lot of people have been wrong about a lot of guys picked in R2, so I may well be wrong in this case.

Illmatic12 · Post #19 » by **Illmatic12** » Fri Sep 20, 2019 12:22 am

payitforward wrote:For sure -- hard to pass on him.

Seems like they made the trade with specific intention to pick Admiral. He was the guy they wanted. I didn't & still don't see why. He doesn't look like an NBA player to me.... But, a lot of people have been wrong about a lot of guys picked in R2, so I may well be wrong in this case.

The Wizards intended target was Eric Paschall (I'm almost certain I read that in a report, I think it was Chase Hughes from NBC) but he went one pick ahead of them. Admiral was their next BPA

Post #20 » by **penbeast0** » Fri Sep 20, 2019 1:35 am

I'm still a bit pissed about Beal leading the league in minutes in a year where we weren't playing for anything. I've read that it was to try to get him the All-NBA slot so we could resign him at a super max but it comes across to me as one of the more idiotic moves in a franchise that's been making idiotic moves for 50 years. What's the over/under on his average minutes this year . . . 36 again for the 3rd year in a row?