Political Roundtable Part XXVI

[dobrojim]

He's so far beyond hotels rooms that he's still doing that every day.
He's also obstructing Congress' legitimate role in oversight about such matters.

The latest kowtowing in a matter of war to the Saudis is despicable.

At about 2:20 in this video, Trump makes clear what his motivations are.

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[Pointgod]

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?s=19

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?s=19

You need to put Trump’s tweets in a spoiler warning. Not trying to see that garbage while eating breakfast

[Zonkerbl]

GOP have already set the Constitution on fire. Increase the SCOTUS to 11. If the Republican parasite states want to leave the Union, go for it. More tax revenue for us. What high tech companies are located in Alabama?

To be a gazillion percent clear: Republicans SUCK. This abusive relationship has to END. I WANT A DIVORCE. If they want to leave - GREAT. Makes it easier. I'm this close to advocating for a war to FORCE secession on them. It's not legal to leave the Union, but dagnabbit you sure as heck can be kicked out.

[Jamaaliver]

Did this seriously happen?

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[dckingsfan]

2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination Poll: NBC News/Wall Street Journal
Biden 31
Warren 25
Sanders 14
Buttigieg 7
Harris 5
Yang 4
Booker 2
Klobuchar 2
O'Rourke 1
Gabbard 1
Castro 1
Steyer 1
Bennet 1

[verbal8]

The Presidential ticket needs to be balanced. Learn from the last election cycle when you had two older white candidates. That’s why I think Castro would make a good VP for Warren. He’s a pit bull who won’t hold back and could help drum up the Latino vote. If Biden is the candidate then I think Harris should be the VP nominee. Who knows who Bernie would choose if he was the nominee. I think a young woman of color would be a good running mate to balance out his blind spots.

I like Kaine as a Senator, but I think he was a very uninspired choice for VP.

I could get a lot more excited about a 1 term-Biden/Harris as VP than Biden with some generic VP. With such a strong field, there often seems to be an assumption that the VP will be from the field.

An obvious choice outside of the field for Biden would be Stacey Abrams. Is running for VP really that different from running a turn out the vote campaign? She gets to wipe the floor with Pence or "sycophant to be named later" once in the VP debate, but other than that the job is pretty much the same.

[verbal8]

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America First!!

You misspelled Fourth

1. Trump
2. Russia
3. Saudi Arabia
4. America

[Kanyewest]

2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination Poll: NBC News/Wall Street Journal
Biden 31
Warren 25
Sanders 14
Buttigieg 7
Harris 5
Yang 4
Booker 2
Klobuchar 2
O'Rourke 1
Gabbard 1
Castro 1
Steyer 1
Bennet 1

Biden went from +7 to Warren to +6 from the previous WSJ/NBC poll- although both extend their leads on Sanders even though Sanders is more popular (from 13 to 14)

Although there are other polls which show Sanders ahead of Warren like this one https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2019/Reuters_Dem_2020_Sept_11.pdf

And this one
https://morningconsult.com/2020-democratic-primary/

[dckingsfan]

2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination Poll: NBC News/Wall Street Journal
Biden 31
Warren 25
Sanders 14
Buttigieg 7
Harris 5
Yang 4
Booker 2
Klobuchar 2
O'Rourke 1
Gabbard 1
Castro 1
Steyer 1
Bennet 1

Biden went from +7 to Warren to +6 from the previous WSJ/NBC poll- although both extend their leads on Sanders even though Sanders is more popular (from 13 to 14)

Although there are other polls which show Sanders ahead of Warren like this one https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2019/Reuters_Dem_2020_Sept_11.pdf

And this one
https://morningconsult.com/2020-democratic-primary/

Yep, in context this is just one poll and the most recent. And even looking at all the polls I don't think we know what is happening (and won't until after the first few primaries). The think that stands out to me is that Warren has probably taken the mantle from Sanders of the progressive candidate and Buttigieg has probably taken the 4th position.

[Zonkerbl]

Two things I want to say:
1) As I have said before, anything is possible with time and money. Preventing the extinction of the human race is possible, but the amount of time we have to do it is getting shorter and shorter, meaning the amount of money we will have to expend to do it gets higher and higher. However, since the alternative is total annihilation of the human race, we have to pay it - *no matter what that price is.* The cockroaches will not be impressed with how much money we saved before we went extinct, and it is not stupid or crazy to articulate what those costs will be. The idiots who forced us to wait this long are the jerks who forced the bill up this high. It's not AOC's fault that her generation is stuck saying out loud what that bill is. The ALTERNATIVE is DEATH. For EVERYONE. The cost of that *alternative* is INFINITE. So whatever the cost is, you have to pay it.

2) There's a homeless prostitute heroin addict who hangs out in front of my house. One day I caught her red handed on ring stealing packages from my front door. I reported it to the police and had her arrested, and the next day they let her go. I talked with the DA about how all I wanted was for this woman to stop stealing crap from my front porch and tbh if they just send her to jail for 30 days she'll just be back on my front porch stealing crap in 30 days. So the DA proposed letting her plead guilty in exchange for turning herself in to rehab. There was some concern whether she would show up for her court date, being 1) illiterate and 2) having absolutely nothing to lose. What are they going to punish her with, jail time? Free food and board for 30 days is a penalty? So my question is, in a jobs guarantee program, anyone who wants a job will get one. Suppose this lady shows up asking for a job. What job are we supposed to give her? Who's going to supervise her? What if she sits around all day at the job shooting up? Is there any point to hiring someone who you know you will fire 30 days later? Why not sign her into rehab and give her a UBI, on condition that she keep checking in periodically to make sure she's not spending her money on smack? A jobs guarantee is an IDIOTIC idea. You can accomplish MUCH MORE with a UBI and a good mental health/drug decriminalization policy.

[Wizardspride]

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[Wizardspride]

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[Zonkerbl]

2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination Poll: NBC News/Wall Street Journal
Biden 31
Warren 25
Sanders 14
Buttigieg 7
Harris 5
Yang 4
Booker 2
Klobuchar 2
O'Rourke 1
Gabbard 1
Castro 1
Steyer 1
Bennet 1

Biden went from +7 to Warren to +6 from the previous WSJ/NBC poll- although both extend their leads on Sanders even though Sanders is more popular (from 13 to 14)

Although there are other polls which show Sanders ahead of Warren like this one https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2019/Reuters_Dem_2020_Sept_11.pdf

And this one
https://morningconsult.com/2020-democratic-primary/

Yep, in context this is just one poll and the most recent. And even looking at all the polls I don't think we know what is happening (and won't until after the first few primaries). The think that stands out to me is that Warren has probably taken the mantle from Sanders of the progressive candidate and Buttigieg has probably taken the 4th position.

Biden's support comes from the core of the Dem base - African American voters. My guess is they are basically supporting Biden because of his close relationship with Obama and name recognition, not because of any particularly progressive policies. Warren has the redneck former union member in Ohio/Michigan/Wisconsin/Pennsylvania vote sewn up (well, she's splitting some of those votes with Sanders), so if she wins the nomination she should be able to beat Trump fairly easily. But she has to win the nomination first, and to do that she has to convince black voters to support her over Biden. Will be interesting to see how she addresses that puzzle.

[I_Like_Dirt]

Yep, in context this is just one poll and the most recent. And even looking at all the polls I don't think we know what is happening (and won't until after the first few primaries). The think that stands out to me is that Warren has probably taken the mantle from Sanders of the progressive candidate and Buttigieg has probably taken the 4th position.

I'm okay with Warren if she takes it. One of the better options from the field. The issue she has that isn't really being addressed, though, is that while it should be natural that she should draw some sympathy from Bernie supporters as they're clearly in agreement on a lot of the major issues, the evidence is pretty firm right now, and plays out in real life, that Bernie supporters aren't sympathetic to any other candidate. If asked, Warren is totally the one they prefer but it isn't likely you're going to see a lot of strategic voting there which makes Warren vulnerable to a certain element of vote splitting amongst the progressives. Biden doesn't suffer the same way and the only way he really comes down is if he takes some hits early on because a fair few of his supporters are backing him on the ethereal "electability" and should he show cracks there, they won't stay long. Frankly, both Bernie and Biden should probably step down at this point. They won't, though, and Bernie's stubbornness might actually work against his causes here.

[dobrojim]

Two things I want to say:
[snip, no real arguments from me]

2) There's a homeless prostitute heroin addict who hangs out in front of my house. One day I caught her red handed on ring stealing packages from my front door. I reported it to the police and had her arrested, and the next day they let her go. I talked with the DA about how all I wanted was for this woman to stop stealing crap from my front porch and tbh if they just send her to jail for 30 days she'll just be back on my front porch stealing crap in 30 days. So the DA proposed letting her plead guilty in exchange for turning herself in to rehab. There was some concern whether she would show up for her court date, being 1) illiterate and 2) having absolutely nothing to lose. What are they going to punish her with, jail time? Free food and board for 30 days is a penalty? So my question is, in a jobs guarantee program, anyone who wants a job will get one. Suppose this lady shows up asking for a job. What job are we supposed to give her? Who's going to supervise her? What if she sits around all day at the job shooting up? Is there any point to hiring someone who you know you will fire 30 days later? Why not sign her into rehab and give her a UBI, on condition that she keep checking in periodically to make sure she's not spending her money on smack? A jobs guarantee is an IDIOTIC idea. You can accomplish MUCH MORE with a UBI and a good mental health/drug decriminalization policy.

This other story to me is a perfect example of where the concept of restorative justice would
be the most sensible response.

https://restorativejustice.org/#sthash.kdHi5Vq9.dpbs

[dckingsfan]

Biden went from +7 to Warren to +6 from the previous WSJ/NBC poll- although both extend their leads on Sanders even though Sanders is more popular (from 13 to 14)

Although there are other polls which show Sanders ahead of Warren like this one https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2019/Reuters_Dem_2020_Sept_11.pdf

And this one
https://morningconsult.com/2020-democratic-primary/

Yep, in context this is just one poll and the most recent. And even looking at all the polls I don't think we know what is happening (and won't until after the first few primaries). The think that stands out to me is that Warren has probably taken the mantle from Sanders of the progressive candidate and Buttigieg has probably taken the 4th position.

Biden's support comes from the core of the Dem base - African American voters. My guess is they are basically supporting Biden because of his close relationship with Obama and name recognition, not because of any particularly progressive policies. Warren has the redneck former union member in Ohio/Michigan/Wisconsin/Pennsylvania vote sewn up (well, she's splitting some of those votes with Sanders), so if she wins the nomination she should be able to beat Trump fairly easily. But she has to win the nomination first, and to do that she has to convince black voters to support her over Biden. Will be interesting to see how she addresses that puzzle.

Read on Twitter

[dckingsfan]

Two things I want to say:
1) As I have said before, anything is possible with time and money. Preventing the extinction of the human race is possible, but the amount of time we have to do it is getting shorter and shorter, meaning the amount of money we will have to expend to do it gets higher and higher. However, since the alternative is total annihilation of the human race, we have to pay it - *no matter what that price is.* The cockroaches will not be impressed with how much money we saved before we went extinct, and it is not stupid or crazy to articulate what those costs will be. The idiots who forced us to wait this long are the jerks who forced the bill up this high. It's not AOC's fault that her generation is stuck saying out loud what that bill is. The ALTERNATIVE is DEATH. For EVERYONE. The cost of that *alternative* is INFINITE. So whatever the cost is, you have to pay it...

Agreed. And there are three parts to the plan.

1) CO2 (and other (worse) gasses) reduction
2) CCUS and other technologies
3) Mitigation

A CO2 reduction plan should be done as quickly as possible but without killing the economy, creating a backlash like the yellow jackets that slows the progress of the initiative(s), within the context of currently available technologies.

CCUS needs to be funded and supported because we will still need to take the Carbon out of the atmosphere to get us back to pre-industrial levels. No amount of CO2 reduction will get us there.

A mitigation plan because it is going to happen regardless of what we do. We aren't going to change the trajectory worldwide so we need to not be denialist and have a plan. There have a been a bunch of studies/papers showing that the return on investment is between 10 and 100x.

To me it is which plan has the best approach. With respect to AOC - it isn't an executable plan.

[dobrojim]

Watch on YouTube

[Zonkerbl]

Two things I want to say:
1) As I have said before, anything is possible with time and money. Preventing the extinction of the human race is possible, but the amount of time we have to do it is getting shorter and shorter, meaning the amount of money we will have to expend to do it gets higher and higher. However, since the alternative is total annihilation of the human race, we have to pay it - *no matter what that price is.* The cockroaches will not be impressed with how much money we saved before we went extinct, and it is not stupid or crazy to articulate what those costs will be. The idiots who forced us to wait this long are the jerks who forced the bill up this high. It's not AOC's fault that her generation is stuck saying out loud what that bill is. The ALTERNATIVE is DEATH. For EVERYONE. The cost of that *alternative* is INFINITE. So whatever the cost is, you have to pay it...

Agreed. And there are three parts to the plan.

1) CO2 (and other (worse) gasses) reduction
2) CCUS and other technologies
3) Mitigation

A CO2 reduction plan should be done as quickly as possible but without killing the economy, creating a backlash like the yellow jackets that slows the progress of the initiative(s), within the context of currently available technologies.

CCUS needs to be funded and supported because we will still need to take the Carbon out of the atmosphere to get us back to pre-industrial levels. No amount of CO2 reduction will get us there.

A mitigation plan because it is going to happen regardless of what we do. We aren't going to change the trajectory worldwide so we need to not be denialist and have a plan. There have a been a bunch of studies/papers showing that the return on investment is between 10 and 100x.

To me it is which plan has the best approach. With respect to AOC - it isn't an executable plan.

Actually I read the opposite from what you just said. You think AOC's vision is achievable, with some modifications. Well ok, you think what is necessary to prevent total extinction doesn't necessarily involve ending carbon emissions by an arguably unachievable date. I don't get why you keep saying the GND is total garbage when what you propose is what a good faith response to a well intentioned but slightly farfetched proposal would be. I guess we have different definitions of what a total garbage proposal is. To me any proposal that gets a discussion started that, if people participate in good faith, will lead to an acceptable solution, is the kind of proposal that gets floated in DC all the time. A garbage proposal is one that is made by people not actually interested in getting a deal done. Like arming school teachers. THAT'S a garbage proposal.

I dunno, maybe I have more experience seeing how the sausage is made.

[Zonkerbl]

Yep, in context this is just one poll and the most recent. And even looking at all the polls I don't think we know what is happening (and won't until after the first few primaries). The think that stands out to me is that Warren has probably taken the mantle from Sanders of the progressive candidate and Buttigieg has probably taken the 4th position.

Biden's support comes from the core of the Dem base - African American voters. My guess is they are basically supporting Biden because of his close relationship with Obama and name recognition, not because of any particularly progressive policies. Warren has the redneck former union member in Ohio/Michigan/Wisconsin/Pennsylvania vote sewn up (well, she's splitting some of those votes with Sanders), so if she wins the nomination she should be able to beat Trump fairly easily. But she has to win the nomination first, and to do that she has to convince black voters to support her over Biden. Will be interesting to see how she addresses that puzzle.

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So you're saying Biden has more redneck ex-union voters than I think