Around the Offseason, Take 2

[thebuzzardman]

Read on Twitter

?s=20

NBA trying to avoid another Buddy Hield situation

There is where we find out Frank is now 6'8" 235 lbs

[GONYK]

I know this is water under the bridge, but I found this analysis on KD's likely production going forward based on past players' achilles injuries fascinating.

The article is long with a ton of stats, but here is the big takeaway:

I examined the production (points per game) for the Achilles Players for the season they tore their Achilles and compared it to the season they returned. If the player tore their Achilles early in the season and did not log in at least 500 minutes that season, I used the season prior as the base season to measure the production impact. I eliminated the Achilles Players from the analysis who scored less than 9.3 points per game for the base season. I set the threshold level at Jonas Jerebko’s scoring average his rookie season when he suffered his Achilles injury. My thought behind the threshold level was an attempt to remove non-rotation players from the analysis. The net result is that the analysis is based on 20 Achilles Players, the same number of players Pelton used for his analysis. Within this group of 20 players, Mario Chalmers, Jonas Jerebko, Maurice Taylor, Gerald Wilkins, and Stanley Roberts took a full season off to rehab, as Durant presumably will do.

The chart below lists the 32 Achilles Players (excludes Durant, John Wall and JJ Barea who tore their Achilles in 2019) and shows the calculation of the first-year production percentage increase/(decrease) of the 20 players. It’s worth noting that only two of the 20 players produced at a level better than the Pelton 8% decline. One player is Dominique Wilkins. The other is Jonas Jerebko, who tore his Achilles at the age of 23 and saw a decline of 6.5% from 9.3 points per game to 8.7 points per game.

As seen in the table below, the average decline in production (points per game) from the base season for the 20 Achilles Players in their first season back was 37.3%, significantly different than Pelton’s average production decline of 8%.

Let’s update Jay Williams quote using my more relevant production decline statistic.

“Can I read you an interesting stat that one of my researchers sent me? Research shows that players coming back from an Achilles injury see their points per game decline 37.3%. Durant was 9th last season averaging 26.0 points per game—Kahwi Leonard territory who averaged 26.6 points per game. A 37.3% decline would drop him to 54th averaging 16.3 points per game. That’s exactly what DeAndre Ayton averaged. He would be ranked just ahead of Eric Gordon, Aaron Gordon, Eric Bledsoe and Rudy Gobert. I think that is somewhat interesting from a research/analytics perspective.”

Kevin Durant signed a 4-year contract with the expectations he will rehab his first season and then play three seasons for the Nets. (Durant does have a player option for the 4th season but let us ignore that for this section). Pelton’s production decline refers solely to the first season returning from an Achilles injury. I calculated the average production declines in the 2nd and 3rd seasons returning from injury for the Achilles Players.

For the 2nd season calculation, I continue to anchor off points per game of the pre-Achilles injury season as a base for measurement. The sample size for this calculation decreased from 20 to 18 as DeMarcus Cousins is entering his second season post-Achilles injury and Mario Chalmers did not return to the NBA for his second season.

The average production decline (points per game) in the second season post-Achilles injury from the base season is 35.9%.

The sample size for the third season decreased from 18 to 12 as Rudy Gay is entering his third season post-Achilles injury and Anderson Varejao, Chauncey Billups, Mehmet Okur, Dan Dickau, and Voshon Lenard did not return to the NBA for a third season following their injuries.

The average production decline (points per game) in the third season post-Achilles injury from the base season pre-Achilles injury is 46.7%.

If you simply apply these average declines (37.9%, 35.9% and 46.7%) to Kevin Durant’s 2018-19 scoring of 26.0 points per game, Durant’s scoring projects to be 16.3 points per game, 16.7 points per game and 13.8 points per game in his three years following injury.

https://knicksforclicks.com/f/dolan-was-right-the-nets-made-the-largest-wager-in-nba-history

[Deeeez Knicks]

I know this is water under the bridge, but I found this analysis on KD's likely production going forward based on past players' achilles injuries fascinating.

The article is long with a ton of stats, but here is the big takeaway:

I examined the production (points per game) for the Achilles Players for the season they tore their Achilles and compared it to the season they returned. If the player tore their Achilles early in the season and did not log in at least 500 minutes that season, I used the season prior as the base season to measure the production impact. I eliminated the Achilles Players from the analysis who scored less than 9.3 points per game for the base season. I set the threshold level at Jonas Jerebko’s scoring average his rookie season when he suffered his Achilles injury. My thought behind the threshold level was an attempt to remove non-rotation players from the analysis. The net result is that the analysis is based on 20 Achilles Players, the same number of players Pelton used for his analysis. Within this group of 20 players, Mario Chalmers, Jonas Jerebko, Maurice Taylor, Gerald Wilkins, and Stanley Roberts took a full season off to rehab, as Durant presumably will do.

The chart below lists the 32 Achilles Players (excludes Durant, John Wall and JJ Barea who tore their Achilles in 2019) and shows the calculation of the first-year production percentage increase/(decrease) of the 20 players. It’s worth noting that only two of the 20 players produced at a level better than the Pelton 8% decline. One player is Dominique Wilkins. The other is Jonas Jerebko, who tore his Achilles at the age of 23 and saw a decline of 6.5% from 9.3 points per game to 8.7 points per game.

As seen in the table below, the average decline in production (points per game) from the base season for the 20 Achilles Players in their first season back was 37.3%, significantly different than Pelton’s average production decline of 8%.

Let’s update Jay Williams quote using my more relevant production decline statistic.

“Can I read you an interesting stat that one of my researchers sent me? Research shows that players coming back from an Achilles injury see their points per game decline 37.3%. Durant was 9th last season averaging 26.0 points per game—Kahwi Leonard territory who averaged 26.6 points per game. A 37.3% decline would drop him to 54th averaging 16.3 points per game. That’s exactly what DeAndre Ayton averaged. He would be ranked just ahead of Eric Gordon, Aaron Gordon, Eric Bledsoe and Rudy Gobert. I think that is somewhat interesting from a research/analytics perspective.”

Kevin Durant signed a 4-year contract with the expectations he will rehab his first season and then play three seasons for the Nets. (Durant does have a player option for the 4th season but let us ignore that for this section). Pelton’s production decline refers solely to the first season returning from an Achilles injury. I calculated the average production declines in the 2nd and 3rd seasons returning from injury for the Achilles Players.

For the 2nd season calculation, I continue to anchor off points per game of the pre-Achilles injury season as a base for measurement. The sample size for this calculation decreased from 20 to 18 as DeMarcus Cousins is entering his second season post-Achilles injury and Mario Chalmers did not return to the NBA for his second season.

The average production decline (points per game) in the second season post-Achilles injury from the base season is 35.9%.

The sample size for the third season decreased from 18 to 12 as Rudy Gay is entering his third season post-Achilles injury and Anderson Varejao, Chauncey Billups, Mehmet Okur, Dan Dickau, and Voshon Lenard did not return to the NBA for a third season following their injuries.

The average production decline (points per game) in the third season post-Achilles injury from the base season pre-Achilles injury is 46.7%.

If you simply apply these average declines (37.9%, 35.9% and 46.7%) to Kevin Durant’s 2018-19 scoring of 26.0 points per game, Durant’s scoring projects to be 16.3 points per game, 16.7 points per game and 13.8 points per game in his three years following injury.

https://knicksforclicks.com/f/dolan-was-right-the-nets-made-the-largest-wager-in-nba-history

Different sport, but what Emmanuel Sanders is doing is pretty amazing. I am not sure if its due to medical advancements or what.

I think KD gets back to being a 22ppg+ scorer though eventually

[GONYK]

I know this is water under the bridge, but I found this analysis on KD's likely production going forward based on past players' achilles injuries fascinating.

The article is long with a ton of stats, but here is the big takeaway:

I examined the production (points per game) for the Achilles Players for the season they tore their Achilles and compared it to the season they returned. If the player tore their Achilles early in the season and did not log in at least 500 minutes that season, I used the season prior as the base season to measure the production impact. I eliminated the Achilles Players from the analysis who scored less than 9.3 points per game for the base season. I set the threshold level at Jonas Jerebko’s scoring average his rookie season when he suffered his Achilles injury. My thought behind the threshold level was an attempt to remove non-rotation players from the analysis. The net result is that the analysis is based on 20 Achilles Players, the same number of players Pelton used for his analysis. Within this group of 20 players, Mario Chalmers, Jonas Jerebko, Maurice Taylor, Gerald Wilkins, and Stanley Roberts took a full season off to rehab, as Durant presumably will do.

The chart below lists the 32 Achilles Players (excludes Durant, John Wall and JJ Barea who tore their Achilles in 2019) and shows the calculation of the first-year production percentage increase/(decrease) of the 20 players. It’s worth noting that only two of the 20 players produced at a level better than the Pelton 8% decline. One player is Dominique Wilkins. The other is Jonas Jerebko, who tore his Achilles at the age of 23 and saw a decline of 6.5% from 9.3 points per game to 8.7 points per game.

As seen in the table below, the average decline in production (points per game) from the base season for the 20 Achilles Players in their first season back was 37.3%, significantly different than Pelton’s average production decline of 8%.

Let’s update Jay Williams quote using my more relevant production decline statistic.

“Can I read you an interesting stat that one of my researchers sent me? Research shows that players coming back from an Achilles injury see their points per game decline 37.3%. Durant was 9th last season averaging 26.0 points per game—Kahwi Leonard territory who averaged 26.6 points per game. A 37.3% decline would drop him to 54th averaging 16.3 points per game. That’s exactly what DeAndre Ayton averaged. He would be ranked just ahead of Eric Gordon, Aaron Gordon, Eric Bledsoe and Rudy Gobert. I think that is somewhat interesting from a research/analytics perspective.”

Kevin Durant signed a 4-year contract with the expectations he will rehab his first season and then play three seasons for the Nets. (Durant does have a player option for the 4th season but let us ignore that for this section). Pelton’s production decline refers solely to the first season returning from an Achilles injury. I calculated the average production declines in the 2nd and 3rd seasons returning from injury for the Achilles Players.

For the 2nd season calculation, I continue to anchor off points per game of the pre-Achilles injury season as a base for measurement. The sample size for this calculation decreased from 20 to 18 as DeMarcus Cousins is entering his second season post-Achilles injury and Mario Chalmers did not return to the NBA for his second season.

The average production decline (points per game) in the second season post-Achilles injury from the base season is 35.9%.

The sample size for the third season decreased from 18 to 12 as Rudy Gay is entering his third season post-Achilles injury and Anderson Varejao, Chauncey Billups, Mehmet Okur, Dan Dickau, and Voshon Lenard did not return to the NBA for a third season following their injuries.

The average production decline (points per game) in the third season post-Achilles injury from the base season pre-Achilles injury is 46.7%.

If you simply apply these average declines (37.9%, 35.9% and 46.7%) to Kevin Durant’s 2018-19 scoring of 26.0 points per game, Durant’s scoring projects to be 16.3 points per game, 16.7 points per game and 13.8 points per game in his three years following injury.

https://knicksforclicks.com/f/dolan-was-right-the-nets-made-the-largest-wager-in-nba-history

Different sport, but what Emmanuel Sanders is doing is pretty amazing. I am not sure if its due to medical advancements or what.

I think KD gets back to being a 22ppg+ scorer though eventually

The question will always be: for how long?

[3toheadmelo]

I know this is water under the bridge, but I found this analysis on KD's likely production going forward based on past players' achilles injuries fascinating.

The article is long with a ton of stats, but here is the big takeaway:

I examined the production (points per game) for the Achilles Players for the season they tore their Achilles and compared it to the season they returned. If the player tore their Achilles early in the season and did not log in at least 500 minutes that season, I used the season prior as the base season to measure the production impact. I eliminated the Achilles Players from the analysis who scored less than 9.3 points per game for the base season. I set the threshold level at Jonas Jerebko’s scoring average his rookie season when he suffered his Achilles injury. My thought behind the threshold level was an attempt to remove non-rotation players from the analysis. The net result is that the analysis is based on 20 Achilles Players, the same number of players Pelton used for his analysis. Within this group of 20 players, Mario Chalmers, Jonas Jerebko, Maurice Taylor, Gerald Wilkins, and Stanley Roberts took a full season off to rehab, as Durant presumably will do.

The chart below lists the 32 Achilles Players (excludes Durant, John Wall and JJ Barea who tore their Achilles in 2019) and shows the calculation of the first-year production percentage increase/(decrease) of the 20 players. It’s worth noting that only two of the 20 players produced at a level better than the Pelton 8% decline. One player is Dominique Wilkins. The other is Jonas Jerebko, who tore his Achilles at the age of 23 and saw a decline of 6.5% from 9.3 points per game to 8.7 points per game.

As seen in the table below, the average decline in production (points per game) from the base season for the 20 Achilles Players in their first season back was 37.3%, significantly different than Pelton’s average production decline of 8%.

Let’s update Jay Williams quote using my more relevant production decline statistic.

“Can I read you an interesting stat that one of my researchers sent me? Research shows that players coming back from an Achilles injury see their points per game decline 37.3%. Durant was 9th last season averaging 26.0 points per game—Kahwi Leonard territory who averaged 26.6 points per game. A 37.3% decline would drop him to 54th averaging 16.3 points per game. That’s exactly what DeAndre Ayton averaged. He would be ranked just ahead of Eric Gordon, Aaron Gordon, Eric Bledsoe and Rudy Gobert. I think that is somewhat interesting from a research/analytics perspective.”

Kevin Durant signed a 4-year contract with the expectations he will rehab his first season and then play three seasons for the Nets. (Durant does have a player option for the 4th season but let us ignore that for this section). Pelton’s production decline refers solely to the first season returning from an Achilles injury. I calculated the average production declines in the 2nd and 3rd seasons returning from injury for the Achilles Players.

For the 2nd season calculation, I continue to anchor off points per game of the pre-Achilles injury season as a base for measurement. The sample size for this calculation decreased from 20 to 18 as DeMarcus Cousins is entering his second season post-Achilles injury and Mario Chalmers did not return to the NBA for his second season.

The average production decline (points per game) in the second season post-Achilles injury from the base season is 35.9%.

The sample size for the third season decreased from 18 to 12 as Rudy Gay is entering his third season post-Achilles injury and Anderson Varejao, Chauncey Billups, Mehmet Okur, Dan Dickau, and Voshon Lenard did not return to the NBA for a third season following their injuries.

The average production decline (points per game) in the third season post-Achilles injury from the base season pre-Achilles injury is 46.7%.

If you simply apply these average declines (37.9%, 35.9% and 46.7%) to Kevin Durant’s 2018-19 scoring of 26.0 points per game, Durant’s scoring projects to be 16.3 points per game, 16.7 points per game and 13.8 points per game in his three years following injury.

https://knicksforclicks.com/f/dolan-was-right-the-nets-made-the-largest-wager-in-nba-history

In other words, he gonna be looking like this guy

[Deeeez Knicks]

I know this is water under the bridge, but I found this analysis on KD's likely production going forward based on past players' achilles injuries fascinating.

The article is long with a ton of stats, but here is the big takeaway:

Different sport, but what Emmanuel Sanders is doing is pretty amazing. I am not sure if its due to medical advancements or what.

I think KD gets back to being a 22ppg+ scorer though eventually

The question will always be: for how long?

Oh yeah, that is a big risk for sure. It may look bad by the last year or 2. I am glad the Knicks are not on the hook as is. It was probably smart of them to pass.

It is an interesting read. I am not sure anyone really lines up with KD's circumstances so its tough to project. Seems like everyone is a little different. Still, a ton of risk and we will see some type of decline.

[Capn'O]

Sign me up

Watch on YouTube

I loved that kid's game but those Porters are broken.

[Capn'O]

Read on Twitter

ewing at 38
walt at 48
melo in the honorable mention list

Ewing and Walt are bad but...

Isiah Thomas at 47 ARE THEY ON CRACK?!!!!!!
Their analysis even acknowledges that he is within the top 20 in the playoffs by virtually all measures. Well. Then he's a top 20 player.

[aq_ua]

Read on Twitter

ewing at 38
walt at 48
melo in the honorable mention list

Ewing and Walt are bad but...

Isiah Thomas at 47 ARE THEY ON CRACK?!!!!!!
Their analysis even acknowledges that he is within the top 20 in the playoffs by virtually all measures. Well. Then he's a top 20 player.

The writer is in middle school. That's the only explanation. Manu Ginobili the 37th best player in NBA history, but he couldn't even f'n start for his own team?!!!

[Reign23]

Read on Twitter

ewing at 38
walt at 48
melo in the honorable mention list

Ewing and Walt are bad but...

Isiah Thomas at 47 ARE THEY ON CRACK?!!!!!!
Their analysis even acknowledges that he is within the top 20 in the playoffs by virtually all measures. Well. Then he's a top 20 player.

The writer is in middle school. That's the only explanation. Manu Ginobili the 37th best player in NBA history, but he couldn't even f'n start for his own team?!!!

what the ****? I always thought he was overrated. Just because he had flashy plays/playes for SA/is a foreign player. don't get me wrong, he was good, even an all star talent, but there is no way he's even one of the 70-80 best players ever..

[Reign23]

I know this is water under the bridge, but I found this analysis on KD's likely production going forward based on past players' achilles injuries fascinating.

The article is long with a ton of stats, but here is the big takeaway:

I examined the production (points per game) for the Achilles Players for the season they tore their Achilles and compared it to the season they returned. If the player tore their Achilles early in the season and did not log in at least 500 minutes that season, I used the season prior as the base season to measure the production impact. I eliminated the Achilles Players from the analysis who scored less than 9.3 points per game for the base season. I set the threshold level at Jonas Jerebko’s scoring average his rookie season when he suffered his Achilles injury. My thought behind the threshold level was an attempt to remove non-rotation players from the analysis. The net result is that the analysis is based on 20 Achilles Players, the same number of players Pelton used for his analysis. Within this group of 20 players, Mario Chalmers, Jonas Jerebko, Maurice Taylor, Gerald Wilkins, and Stanley Roberts took a full season off to rehab, as Durant presumably will do.

The chart below lists the 32 Achilles Players (excludes Durant, John Wall and JJ Barea who tore their Achilles in 2019) and shows the calculation of the first-year production percentage increase/(decrease) of the 20 players. It’s worth noting that only two of the 20 players produced at a level better than the Pelton 8% decline. One player is Dominique Wilkins. The other is Jonas Jerebko, who tore his Achilles at the age of 23 and saw a decline of 6.5% from 9.3 points per game to 8.7 points per game.

As seen in the table below, the average decline in production (points per game) from the base season for the 20 Achilles Players in their first season back was 37.3%, significantly different than Pelton’s average production decline of 8%.

Let’s update Jay Williams quote using my more relevant production decline statistic.

“Can I read you an interesting stat that one of my researchers sent me? Research shows that players coming back from an Achilles injury see their points per game decline 37.3%. Durant was 9th last season averaging 26.0 points per game—Kahwi Leonard territory who averaged 26.6 points per game. A 37.3% decline would drop him to 54th averaging 16.3 points per game. That’s exactly what DeAndre Ayton averaged. He would be ranked just ahead of Eric Gordon, Aaron Gordon, Eric Bledsoe and Rudy Gobert. I think that is somewhat interesting from a research/analytics perspective.”

Kevin Durant signed a 4-year contract with the expectations he will rehab his first season and then play three seasons for the Nets. (Durant does have a player option for the 4th season but let us ignore that for this section). Pelton’s production decline refers solely to the first season returning from an Achilles injury. I calculated the average production declines in the 2nd and 3rd seasons returning from injury for the Achilles Players.

For the 2nd season calculation, I continue to anchor off points per game of the pre-Achilles injury season as a base for measurement. The sample size for this calculation decreased from 20 to 18 as DeMarcus Cousins is entering his second season post-Achilles injury and Mario Chalmers did not return to the NBA for his second season.

The average production decline (points per game) in the second season post-Achilles injury from the base season is 35.9%.

The sample size for the third season decreased from 18 to 12 as Rudy Gay is entering his third season post-Achilles injury and Anderson Varejao, Chauncey Billups, Mehmet Okur, Dan Dickau, and Voshon Lenard did not return to the NBA for a third season following their injuries.

The average production decline (points per game) in the third season post-Achilles injury from the base season pre-Achilles injury is 46.7%.

If you simply apply these average declines (37.9%, 35.9% and 46.7%) to Kevin Durant’s 2018-19 scoring of 26.0 points per game, Durant’s scoring projects to be 16.3 points per game, 16.7 points per game and 13.8 points per game in his three years following injury.

https://knicksforclicks.com/f/dolan-was-right-the-nets-made-the-largest-wager-in-nba-history

In other words, he gonna be looking like this guy

don't do that

[3toheadmelo]

I know this is water under the bridge, but I found this analysis on KD's likely production going forward based on past players' achilles injuries fascinating.

The article is long with a ton of stats, but here is the big takeaway:

In other words, he gonna be looking like this guy

don't do that

I still got love for him bro. Just had to fire some shots at KD

I was actually defending Melo yesterday on the GB. I made a suggestion that the Lakers should get him with Kuzma being out for a while. But some low IQ posters think Dudley is a far better basketball player than Melo and will save them The same guy that shot 27% in the playoffs and got embarrassed by Ben Simmons. I had to leave before I get suspended or banned. Too toxic over there.

[robillionaire]

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/24367000/the-top-25-most-miserable-fan-bases-professional-sports

14. New York Knicks, 18.99
Movement: Up 14

The first newcomer to the top 25 was a long time coming (just Google "Stephen A. Smith Knicks"), as Madison Square Garden has become a house of horrors for the home team and its fans. Forget that the Knicks haven't won an NBA championship since 1973 -- it's that they haven't been anywhere close recently that makes them a source of anger for fans in Gotham.

The Knicks have not made the playoffs since 2013 and haven't made it past the second round since 2000. One of their rare draft picks that hit big (Kristaps Porzingis) demanded to be traded away. And the quick-fix offseason that they've anticipated for years turned into an absolute dud, as New York missed out on Zion Williamson despite having the worst record in the league, then saw their top two free-agent targets -- Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving -- rebuff them and go to rival Brooklyn, of all places. Things aren't good.

[iLLmatic860]

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/24367000/the-top-25-most-miserable-fan-bases-professional-sports

14. New York Knicks, 18.99
Movement: Up 14

The first newcomer to the top 25 was a long time coming (just Google "Stephen A. Smith Knicks"), as Madison Square Garden has become a house of horrors for the home team and its fans. Forget that the Knicks haven't won an NBA championship since 1973 -- it's that they haven't been anywhere close recently that makes them a source of anger for fans in Gotham.

The Knicks have not made the playoffs since 2013 and haven't made it past the second round since 2000. One of their rare draft picks that hit big (Kristaps Porzingis) demanded to be traded away. And the quick-fix offseason that they've anticipated for years turned into an absolute dud, as New York missed out on Zion Williamson despite having the worst record in the league, then saw their top two free-agent targets -- Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving -- rebuff them and go to rival Brooklyn, of all places. Things aren't good.

They aint lying. My adulthood as a Knicks fan is not pleasant.

[Dave DaButcher]

We dodged a major bullet with this lunatic.

Read on Twitter

?s=21

[shtolky]

We dodged a major bullet with this lunatic.

Read on Twitter

?s=21

I'm sure the Warriors were pretty adamant that he play, but it's laughable to blame goes anywhere but KD. He's a grown man who made the decision to play and I highly, highly doubt he wasn't at least somewhat aware of the potential risk of injuring himself further. Unless he was 100% lied to and his team didn't do due diligence, the blame lies with him.

[TheGreenArrow]

Man i hate the nets,kyrie etc but i wish my knicks were as open and honest about things.

When is mills/perry/fizdale going to talk??

[GONYK]

Man i hate the nets,kyrie etc but i wish my knicks were as open and honest about things.

When is mills/perry/fizdale going to talk??

I think our media day on Monday is a good guess

[3toheadmelo]

U know the vibes

[TheGreenArrow]

Man i hate the nets,kyrie etc but i wish my knicks were as open and honest about things.

When is mills/perry/fizdale going to talk??

I think our media day on Monday is a good guess

Oh okay,the past two years have been different though managment would talk on friday then monday the players would.